저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
Dimon는 인도-미국 무역협상이 결국 정리될 것으로 낙관하며 H-1B 비자 확대 조치와 Hire Act 등 무역 이슈를 일시적 혼란으로 봤다. 미국 경기는 고용이 여전히 낮고 소비가 유지되나 저소득층 신용손실이 늘어 약화 중이며, AI 투자 붐은 실재하지만 일부 과잉투자 버블 가능성이 있다고 언급. 인플레이션은 약 3%에 머물러 있어 추가 금리인하는 어렵다고 봤고, 재정적자는 장기적으로 문제가 될 것이라고 경고. 금·비트코인 등 자산은 과열 신호가 있다고 지적하되 방향 예측은 하지 않음. 스테이블코인은 결제 목적으로 발전할 것이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
Well, we are coming to you from the sidelines of the JP Morgan India Investor Conference and I'm sitting down with perhaps the world's most famous banker. Jamie Diamond is CEO at JP Morgan Chase. Jamie, great to have you with us here. Good to be here. Really appreciate it. And it's been exactly 11 months since we last spoke and uh I mean oh boy news flow has been tremendous ups and downs and whatnot but I want to start with India and US uh when we last spoke and I think even two quarters back expectation was that India really would be in the f the first in the line to get a deal.
It would perhaps be a favorable deal as compared to some of the other competitor exporting countries. It's been exactly the opposite. I mean uh what what do you make of it? Well, first I want to say I have to come to India to be on CNBC but this conference has gone from you know from a small conference today almost a thousand people here in 200 companies.
We've seen enormous growth in India and we're very optimistic about India for in a million different ways and the president and your prime minister clearly like each other. So I'm I which I think is good. Uh I don't know what derailed it. I do think the Ukraine you know Russian oil has been part of it.
So I would take the president at his word on that. Uh I'm still optimistic. In fact, uh I think Scott Besson or the president recently said, "No, no, we're going to get something done with India." And I'm I hope I hope we do. I think it'd be very important. How will this work out? Because I mean, I think the Indian side has been very clear.
I'm not asking you exactly what happens. But there has to be offramp, right, to to knock those 25% off and then maybe work down the remaining 25% as well. You know, I'm not literally I'm not involved in negotiations. I don't know. I do think there's they want to do something the American side and I think they want to do something in the Indian side and so I'm hoping that they resolve it intelligently.
I think it'd be good for both parties and I think you know India is a great friend of America. It should be I know it's nonal aligned and it should stay not aligned but with that with their non-alignment we should be their best friend and I was before coming in I was watching CNBC the squawk and uh there was H1B which was the big talking point headline and it's kind of now sort of going into services as well which so far it was not it was mostly about goods uh so is it expanding or you think this is also all part of negotiation and it will finally settle down
I think it'll finally settle down that caught everyone off guard and so we had a lot of phone calls over the can what does it mean? And from what I understand, it means new H1B visas, you know, uh, you know, and a lot of H-1Bs go there because they need the expertise. And so, I'm sure a lot of people be going to the American government explaining why we believe it.
I believe in merit-based immigration. You know, a matter of fact, I would beg the president if you now you he has accomplished border control. That's great. I mean, I think all nations want real border control. That helps make a nation. But after that, we should have, you know, good immigration. And I've heard him say publicly, you know, more merit-based immigration, good seasonal worker stay, uh, DACA stays, uh, uh, that you get a if you get a a degree in America, we should stamp a green card onto it.
I agree with those kind of things. And so, you know, we'll we'll be hopefully be engaged in the government in this, too. During Trump, uh, President Trump's first term as well, I think a lot of industry bodies went and sort of, you know, lobbyed. were actually lawsuits etc. as well fair bit of push back.
Do you think there will be this this time as well? I mean with regards to services and H-1Bs. Well, I I wouldn't combine the two because services are different than H-1Bs. I think there'll be some push back the H1Bs. Yeah. And I like I said I haven't spoken to about it and I mean I was basically flying over here when I heard about it.
So we we'll see. You know the other thing of course Mr. Diamond is the the called Hire Act, right? Which again it's in the Senate. We don't know if this goes through or not but which proposes a 25% tax on offshore offshoring uh I mean global capability centers and you're I mean JP Morgan has got a a large presence here but it's not so much about JP JP Morgan's business here but how do you think about something like that
I am not I've heard about that act I don't know about it you know trade trade is a very complicated thing and you know and I hope we get it right I think there's been a lot of negotiations since then I think secretary Besson secretary Lutnik the president have engage in it. I think they've, you know, come to more reasonable positions.
So, you know, look, we're a great believer in trade. You know, I think if there's trade that needs to be fixed for national security should be fixed and I think if there's something terribly unfair, it should be fixed. There is unfair trade. Sometimes it's non-tariff barriers, sometimes it's quoted, sometimes it's uh tariffs itself.
But uh uh but this one I'm not completely aware of. I don't know. A lot of services, you know, we provide a lot of service to other countries too, right? But but your broad view is you should look at these things as a transient phase and it will settle down. I hope so. I I really don't know. I hope so.
Okay. Uh let's talk about the US, Mr. Diamond. Uh how has your view changed? Yes. Talk about all that. The most important thing to me is that the western world stay strong military and economically and together at free and democratic society. That is the most important thing and to me I would be when I'm looking at trade I would incorporate that in my thinking.
keep the western world together economically. So uh let's let's talk about u the US itself. You think it's it's you know a lot of economists were saying that well recession of the second half it's not happening. I mean high frequency data hard data is still coming in very strong combined with I mean maybe the losers financial conditions we've had in a while.
I mean just what are your thoughts about how you're looking at the US right now? There is a lot of conflicting I mean data is itself is not perfect. There's a lot of conflicting data, but right now unemployment is still low. Consumers both low end and you know higher end is spending their money. At the low end, they're clear.
They're a little stretched, you know, and credit loss is going up a little bit. So, it's not a disaster. It's a weakening. I don't know if that's just a weakened economy or or not. You have a lot of stimulus coming in the tax package and you have a lot of I'm going to I'm not going to call stimulus, but spending on AI.
So, a lot of capex is up, but it's almost all AI data center related. So, you know, I hope it continues and I'm a little more cautious on inflation than the people. You know, that may not go away so quick be because of the global deficits around the world, you know, those have an inflationary effect.
The remilitarization of the world, you know, the restructure of trade, those things are all kind of inflationary. And maybe, you know, less immigration United States, you know, could help push up wages in the United States a little bit, which is not all bad because, you know, a lot of people, you know, deserve a a wage increase.
So you know uh you've always sort of warned the world about very high deficits deficits in America fiscal deficits in America. Do you think as estimates of I mean uh tariff intake comes in I mean hundreds of billions of dollars depending on who you ask are you a little more sanguin about the I mean where this is going direction of travel with regards to deficits out of America
in the short run. Okay. I'm look I'm a free trade guy so I'm hoping that you know other than unfair trade and national security and by I hear that from a lot of people in the administration too the current numbers have you know that the tariffs may collect $400 billion or so and so but the one big beautiful bill has a lot of stimulus coming next year and which is good an offset and dereg I think the I I think like in America like in India I think the regulations the world have slowed around investment, permitting, you know, building things.
Like anyone you talk to in any industry will tell you, you know, it's almost longer to get permits and fight litigation than it is to build what you're trying to build. So, so I do think that's a positive. So, I think we need a growth strategy. I I think that America and every country, how are you going to grow?
growth is what allows you to pay taxes, you know, pay your social safety nets, you know, but which means you need jobs, you need business, and uh and that I think that's good that they're pushing that. I think too many governments were not pushing that. Uh other than that, the deficit's going to have to come down one day.
Growth is one way of getting it down, but you know, eventually we have to have a Simpson balls type of thing to make more rational decisions about the deficit. The direction has changed in that sense pre I mean this administration coming in compared to where we were earlier where we were going administration is more growth more progrowth but we haven't really attacked the fiscal deficit problem yet growth will do some of that I don't know if they'll do all of it
okay you you're calling the uh but the other thing about the deficits and this is global this is like every nation in the planet and all everyone's got very high debt levels too I don't know when that becomes a problem you know I can give you a logical argument that it could become a problem in six months I can give you a argue might be six years, but it will become a problem and we're, you know, like most problems, you're better off dealing with the problem than letting it happen.
Yeah. You know, and so I I hope we are a little more thoughtful about that. Absolutely. The Fed, Mr. Diamond, what's what's your sense? I mean, we've we've seen a cut. Is this a one-off in your opinion or the start of easing cycle? I think people focus too much on 25 basis points. Uh, I don't know yet.
You know, if inflation does not go away, it's going to be hard for the Fed to cut more. And you know, inflation seems a little bit stuck in 3%. Again, I can give you some arguments why it's going to go up, not down. Uh uh and and obviously if if we go into a recession and that's why rates are being cut, that's not good either.
So, you know, hopefully you can have decent growth and maybe rates come down a little bit, but we'll see. you weigh in strongly in support of the Fed when I mean uh you know we had officials from the executive making comments and sort of attacking the Fed asking them to cut etc. Uh you think that's kind of sort of eased off a little bit or or how do you see this
it'll start I mean I've always said that there's no American president who ever said I want higher rates so obviously they want short rates. President Trump has come out and said I believe in an independent Fed. Yeah. He he's quite strong about his opinions, but being independent is an important thing.
The Fed is not really independent in other matters, supervisory, regulatory. I think there was too much of that and and they should have their ears cut back a little bit, but uh look, presumably hopefully we'll pick a good Fed chair. Some of the names I think are quite good. I don't want to go through each one and we'll see.
Yeah. But you don't remember the Fed, you know, the Fed sets rates and all that. But I remind people when short rates when inflation went up, they followed inflation. So they're not they're a follower. They're not just they don't determine all these things. They have to react to these things. And and so we'll see.
Apart from inflation, are are there do you foresee any any problems otherwise in the US to which the Fed should respond? I mean, people keep bringing up uh private credit markets and I mean all sorts of things. Do you think there's any reason to worry for the Fed to pay attention enough to start uh you know is that something we should worry about?
No, I think they should stick to their knitting. Okay. Uh I do think when you talk about uh you know which is unemployment and interest rates uh inflation, I think when you talk about systemic stuff, they will have they they should anticipate certain things. So if a government comes out and says we're going to spend another trillion dollars, well they should incorporate that in quote their data,
you know, but it's hard to incorporate. I don't think there's a systemic thing that they should be incorporating today. I think if we have a recession, I think you'll see, you know, as we always do, you'll see a credit cycle and, you know, will it'll be a little bit worse than a normal one? Possibly.
Yeah. Uh the, you know, weaker dollar, if I may so put it, is the strongest consensus right now. Do you agree? I'm not going to give my opinion that one. I don't know. I'll let our traders figure it out. You don't think I mean, you don't feel strongly about it one way or the other? No. Okay. Most Americans don't pay as much attention to the dollar as as people outside the United States.
But I think there there are all things being equal all things being equal which they never are. You want a stronger dollar because it generally means a stronger economy you know but now you know tariffs trade and all these other things that have some counterfact. And you know there are people who are reducing their US dollar investments which I I expect will continue over time.
So add to a little bit of the weakness of the dollar and there are a lot of people in the United States who like the weaker dollar because it's good for trade. So we'll see. Yeah. Uh any any view on uh what's happening with gold precious precious metals $1,000 in 2008 2000 in 2020? We're what I mean closing in on 4,000 now.
We'll see. No, there's there's a lot of I mean, we're getting in bubble stuff here. And I'm not saying I don't know where we are, but but there's a lot of positive sentiment out there driving a lot of asset prices. Highest stock prices ever, highest gold ever, you know, um crypto crypto highest crypto ever.
Yeah. What are your thoughts, Mr. Diamond? is, you know, with crypto, a lot of people say, well, you here's you've got a US administration which is trying to mainstream it uh in terms of sort of, you know, getting this into the financial system. Uh you've of course warned us off it. I'm and separate a bitcoin from when people say crypto blockchain is real.
We've been using it for years. We you can move a JP Morgan coin token. Stable coin will probably be real. We're doing it too. The banks are looking at whether they should have a consortium or do it. you know, a stable coin if it's like a mutual fund probably needs rules like a mutual fund and I can send you a token which is a mutual fund.
You're probably going to say to me, just give me my money. I'll invest what I want. Uh, and it can't pay interest, you know, whereas a JB Morgan coin could pay interest. I do think there'll be people who want to own dollars through a stable coin outside the US from bad guys to good guys to certain countries where you're probably better off having dollars and not putting the banking system and then you know move movement of money for you know particularly retail I think there'll be a purpose for that I'm not sure central banks need to use it among themselves so we're it'll develop over time not particularly worried about it you know but we should be on top of it understand it
uh artificial intelligence business diamond is the other one Right. I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars being invested there. You think there is a risk of capital misallocation? I mean, it's a bit of a uh I don't know if this is excessive, but So, let me put this way. AI itself is real. You know, we have 2,000 people doing it, 500 use cases.
I worry less about large miles or small models and the whether go up, I think the cost will be coming down. Uh I think people are putting a lot of money behind it. So, it is real. But in almost every real investment boom, you've had people who didn't do it right. So when cars boomed, a lot of car companies went bankrupt.
When television boommed, a lot of television companies went bankrupt. When, you know, the internet bubble that that was real, too. But I remember the level three laid enough fiber optic. It took like 15 or 20 years to use it all. So, you know, parts of it may very well be in this kind of bubble thing, but parts aren't.
So, but but I separate that from the real and we're going to be using it for a million different things. And so my mindset is more than using it. It'll develop over time. We're using large language models and small language models, open source models and closed models and whatever works best for our company and our client is how we're going to do it.
But it is real and and for the population it's going to solve cancers, you know, it's going to solve some terrible problems that mankind has and it may like every other technology is also gets used by bad guys. Y and we're already seeing that in a lot of you know uh payment systems, cyber etc. Yeah.
Uh Mr. Diamond, it's it's unprecedentedly volatile world out there. I mean, you've been at the helm of JP Morgan for almost two decades now. Uh for Indian companies who are watching you, boards who are watching you, what what are the two or three sort of, you know, top things you'd want to tell them how to navigate through this cycle?
Yeah. No, we've always So, everywhere we do business, we kind of grow and cover more people. Every country has its own population growth and education and raw materials and culture and markets and capital markets and government pol rule of law. Rule of law is always maybe the most important thing for how a country develops.
But in terms of running the business, we are here to grow our business in India. We here we serve 2,000 companies. So think of it as a lot of local real Indian companies here but a lot of multinationals from around the world and we're just growing in every part of the business. over time and then we look at the risk we navigate the risk
we don't buy and sell the company like it's a stock we so we can handle low rates high rates stackflation uh so we could serve India we can serve our clients and we can you know serve our shareholders well over time and manage that but but the ri the biggest thing in my mind is to keep the western world safe and free and that's going to take a lot of part on the part of America and all of our allies to make sure we do that militarily and economically.
That to me is the most important thing. Nothing compares to that. Not a recession, not Bitcoin, not anything. And you know, that's more long-term strategic than, you know, what happens to the economy this year. But I would imagine compared to about a year ago, a lot of that is now starting to come together, right?
Europe, for example, Germany, I mean, people are starting to talk about spending, increase military spending, etc. So that is happening now and and much more compared to where we were last last year. Yeah. But absolutely correct. There are some good things taking place there, you know, but I don't want to fragment it.
I think America's military alliance is critical and uh but yeah, some good things are happening. Yes, Mr. Diamond, it's an absolute pleasure. I'm not out of questions, but we're out of time. And it's not my schedule, it's your schedule. Thank you very much for joining us. Really always wonderful. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.
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