저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현 시장을 전면적 거품으로 단정하기는 어렵고, 일부 종목·신기술 영역에 거품 징후가 있다는 취지. [밸류에이션] 쉴러 CAPE는 약 38로 닷컴버블 다음 수준의 고점. 다만 채권의 PER 75배 대비 주식이 상대적으로 낫다는 이유로 '완전한 거품'까지는 아니라고 봄. [불안정성] 성장률 가정이 높게 반영된 가격 구조. 호스트는 설명이 불명확하다고 평가. [신규 투자자 유입] 로빈후드 사용자 약 1,800만 명(1년 전 720만). 게임스톱·AMC 등 대중 화제성이 거품 신호로 제시. [낙관과 FOMO] 소외 공포로 추종 매수가 확산되고 대형 운용사도 초과수익 경쟁에 가세. [선매수·레버리지] 미래 가격 상승을 대비한 선구매 증가를 지표로 제시. 과도한 부채는 자산 매각 연쇄와 폭락 위험을 키운다고 경고(2007년 사례 인용). [결론 및 실전 시사점] 6개 기준 중 신기술 영역은 3개가 거품 단계로 평가. 시장 전체 타이밍 예측보다 개별 종목 분석에 기준을 적용하라는 권고. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 명시적 방향 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
So, Ray Dalio is back on YouTube, and his latest video is a really interesting 10- minute explanation of whether we're in a stock market bubble right now . Ray, of course, is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the most successful hedge fund the world has ever seen. He has been investing for over 50 years, and throughout his career he has studied economic history in excruciating detail to understand how different economic situations typically unfold in the market.
Although, I have to say, for such a successful person, I was very surprised to see that his latest video was clearly sponsored by Robinhood. Hello everyone. Uh, it's really nice to be here on behalf of all the people Robinhood helps. Ahem. Yes, that's obviously taken out of context. Ray definitely means this "Robin Hood", not the same one .
But anyway, as I said, this video is about Ray's analysis of whether we're in a stock market bubble right now. And to do this, he breaks everything down into six points. So let's run the intro and then move on to point number one. This video is sponsored by Stake. Download the Stake app today and use the referral code AWC to get a free share after you top up your account.
Details in the description. First, you know how high the prices are relative to traditional price indicators—this is an important aspect. For example, whether the P/E ratio is high or whether the profitability is low , and everything in that vein. That's worth considering, but that's not what I mean by " bubble." Let's say, for example, prices may be high, which means low profitability, and this may last for a very long time.
This does not mean that the bubble will burst. So I'm actually looking at whether there will be an explosion, but still, that's one factor. So, how high are prices relative to traditional indicators, and Ray classifies the market on this point as somewhat " foamy." And I find that very interesting because I would call it a bubble.
Even if we look at a metric like the Shiller (CAPE) index, which is a kind of big P/E ratio for the S&P 500, we see that it is currently at 38 , which is almost the highest value in history. Certainly higher than in 1929 and 2008 , just not as high or steep as during the " dot-com bubble." But the reason Ray says "somewhat frothy" and not a full-blown " bubble" is because he's comparing stock valuations to bond valuations.
And he gave an example that, you know, if you invest in bonds right now, you're actually agreeing to a price-to- earnings ratio of 75 times, depending on which bond market you're looking at. So, if stocks currently have a P/E ratio of 38, it still seems like a better place to keep money than bonds. So Ray doesn't exactly call it a full-fledged " bubble." But okay, let's move on .
Point number two. Second—prices take into account unstable conditions. So, instability is starting to become part of this bubble picture. Volatility means that due to the nature of the purchase, who is buying, and how supply and demand are structured, it will not be able to last long, leading to a correction or decline in price.
I thought Ray could have explained this point a little better , because I'm not sure I understand exactly what he's talking about here, but I think he means it : This criterion tests whether stock prices today reflect volatile growth rates in the future. Because the way you value a business is that you project future cash flows at a certain growth rate.
You then discount them to the amount you are willing to pay today for those future cash flows. And this is essentially how all investors value stocks. I won't go into detail, but if you're curious about how this works and want to see an example, watch the video that will now appear on the screen. But if the stock price is very high today, it means that whoever bought the stock at that price clearly expects huge growth in the future.
So, I think what Ray is trying to say with this point is: do prices today reflect the volatile growth rates that investors use in their valuation models? And it's interesting that he doesn't think so. So Ray clearly sees an environment where growth can continue into the future. Okay, let's move on to points three and four.
And then there's this speculative element number three. So, one such indicator of speculative elements is new buyers in the market. They are getting involved in the market. You know, it's that case where you go to a party and people who were never involved in it get invested in it. It could be tech stocks, real estate, or whatever, but they are being dragged down, and there is great optimism.
So everyone wants to have it, and if you don't have it , you feel stupid. These are the things. So, Rai calls it " foam," and I completely agree. There are many new entrants in the market now, and many of them are becoming overly speculative in their purchases. I mean, Robinhood alone now has about 18 million users, and a year ago there were only 7.2 million.
So, a huge number of new buyers have appeared, they have money and are ready to act. These are the most ordinary people. They have the funds and they want to join the game we call investing. And Rai is right. When you start hearing people talking about AMC and GameStop at a cocktail party, that's when you should start worrying.
For example, according to my observations, in the clinic where I used to work, all the physiotherapists started talking about buying Bitcoins during their lunch break, and this is definitely a sign that a “ bubble” is forming. So I think Rai is definitely right on this point. And now the fourth point, definitely.
There is a huge sense of optimism. As Rai says, it's an element of fear of losing out, where you realize that if you don't own it, you feel like a fool. You know, people get involved in trends, and it makes others feel like they're missing out . So they join, which leads to a new wave of people getting on that ship, and then another wave, and another.
And this happens at all levels as well. It's not just retail investors, right? This idea of being the poor guy left with nothing also makes great money managers chase each other, just trying to outperform others. So, I completely understand why Rai says the third and fourth points seem " foamy," and I certainly agree.
Okay, finally, let's look at the fifth and sixth points or criteria of Paradise. And also, uh, number five on my list—that's big purchases, uh, forward purchases. You know how someone buys apartments they don't own because they think apartment prices will go up. Or, at one time, when I traded many commodities, I noticed that those who used these commodities, instead of buying outright, secured themselves with many forward contracts, in other words, bought stocks to protect themselves against rising prices.
So when they go — as we saw recently in commodities — from having no forward contracts because prices were falling and they kept falling, and they say, "I don't want to own this," to a point where prices are rising and they say, "I want to protect myself from further increases ," that movement triggers massive buying, and so on.
So buyers who have increased these forward purchases are the indicator I use. So, there are two interesting points here. First, a strong sign of a bubble is, of course, when people can and do take on large amounts of debt. This is the fifth item on Ray's list. This is just a classic situation. This is exactly what happened in 2007.
You know, people could buy five houses without having any income. It's that scene with the stripper. If you've seen "The Downgrade Game," the scene with the stripper, you know where she says, "I have five houses and a condo." And, of course, when people massively overburden themselves with debt, it creates huge conditions for a bubble that can easily burst, because even a minor failure can trigger a wave of asset sales as people cannot service their debts, and this creates downward pressure on prices in any market: stocks, real estate, or anything else.
This could turn into a major collapse. Without any doubt. This was point number five. And point number six is when people buy things now, creating stocks, because they are afraid that prices will get even worse in the future. And honestly, I'm not sure why this is a bubble indicator. Perhaps because purchases are being brought forward , companies' sales look artificially inflated now, and will look weak later when this pent-up demand calms down .
But frankly, I'm not entirely sure about this point. Maybe I'm missing something obvious. Maybe I just don't know. So please write in the comments if you understand this point much better than I do. But anyway, this is point number six. And if you look at Ray Dalio's conclusion on all of these factors today, you can see that he doesn't seem to think we're in a bubble zone yet.
Some of these criteria seem shaky to him, but when you compare it to his conclusions about the three previous major crashes, he doesn't seem to think we're in any danger. One thing I find interesting, and something he wasn't obligated to do but decided to add anyway, is his conclusions about new technologies.
You see, in this area, he indicates that three of the six criteria are in the "bubble" stage. So, reading between the lines, I think Ray means that he doesn't believe in the imminent danger of a market crash, but it's worth being wary of new technologies. But the last thing I wanted to touch on is what Ray says in his presentation: he doesn't typically apply these criteria to the market as a whole.
In fact, he uses this approach to evaluate individual companies. And I think that's very smart. That's why I wanted to say this, because we know that it's impossible to guess a good time for the market. Nobody can. So, instead of using these approaches to forecast the market or try to predict a crash, use them to analyze individual companies you plan to invest in .
Here's where it can come in handy. This table that I'm showing shows the state of the stock market as a whole according to these criteria: are we in a " bubble"? Is the stock market a " bubble"? Well, I apply this approach to all individual securities, and I do it systematically, because my process is to write down criteria, use filters, and so on, to try to see which ones are in a bubble state.
So, there are different promotions. Some of them, in my opinion, are " bubbles", some are not, but the stock market as a whole is reflected in this table. Let me move on to the next graph. That's all, actually. Use this for individual stocks and don't get carried away with market forecasting . Okay, that concludes today's video.
I'll let Ray put the final touches on today. But before that, please don't forget to like the video if you enjoyed it or found it useful. Of course, subscribe to the channel if you haven't already . Also, if you're looking for a step-by-step video course on how to start investing—actively or passively—you can visit Profitful.
The link is in the description below. And that's all, see you next time in a new video. And now let's ask Ray Dalio to sum up and express his thoughts, Ray, on the current state of the stock market. See you next time. It cannot be said that the stock market is in the biggest " bubble". It cannot even be said that it is necessarily in a "bubble" state.
It is necessary to distinguish which stocks are or were in a “ bubble” and which are not. There are many stocks that are not in it, and this "bubble" is a bit like the "bubble" in the bond market. I hope this has given you some insight into " bubbles", how I perceive them, and where we are. Thank you.
Hello everyone, thank you very much for watching the video. From time to time, people ask me which broker I use for trading or investing in the United States. And for this I use the Stake brokerage platform. Stake has been a long-time sponsor of this channel. And the reason is that I truly believe in their platform.
They offer a trading platform with no brokerage fees. You can buy and sell stocks listed in the US without brokerage fees. Usually, if you work through, say, CommSec, you will have to pay a currency exchange fee first , and then international brokerage fees, which is very expensive. Stake still charges a currency exchange fee, but once your Australian dollars are converted to US dollars, trading becomes free.
So, I use Stake . I really like their platform, and of course the reason I work with them is because they offer you really good deals. So if you sign up for Stake using the referral code AWC— this is from the days of Aussie Wealth Creation, if you remember. So, if you sign up with the code AWC and top up your account, you will receive one free promotion.
Hey, that's a pretty good bonus. It's better than nothing. So if you want to try it, check out the link in the description. Thank you Stake, as always, for helping to make this channel financially viable for me and sponsoring this content. And thank you guys for watching. See you in the next video. Aha. Aha.
Comments 0