저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주가 상승은 위험이 증가하는 신호이고 하락은 위험이 감소하는 것이므로, 하락장에서 매도하는 대중과 반대로 저점 매수하는 전략이 유리하다고 주장. ARK Invest 자금흐름을 보면 테슬라 하락 시 대중이 매도하고 상승 직전에 매수하는 패턴이 반복됨. 테슬라 1500달러 대비 375달러 하락 가능성을 550달러 대비 137달러 하락 가능성보다 높게 봄. 다만 시장 타이밍 추구가 목적은 아니라고 언급.
다듬은 글
everyone be kevin here do you know why most people fail to beat the market because they're paper handing sissies they're not a diamond handing and i've got some proof here to show you why if you follow a strategy like what kathy what is doing in diamond handing over at arc invest you're probably going to be much better off first before i show you what i'm about to show you it's really useful to remember this when a stock goes up in price it is actually increasing risk when you see oh it's up ten percent oh it's up ten percent oh it's up ten percent that is getting riskier and riskier and riskier every single move up is an increase in risk it is not what we think it is what we initially think when we see oh it's up 10 today well oh it's it's trending up it might be a it might be a move upwards it's momentum driven yay we get this feeling that oh there's safety and momentum there's there's safety in being in the middle of the sheep farm right because you're in the middle like the dog's not gonna eat you the sheep herder is not gonna come kill you you're in the middle it's like let's just let's just go this way oh we're going this way this time okay we're going that way like there's safety in that so when we see green in the stock market it's human nature for us to feel like oh well things are getting better yeah let's let's go over here where everybody's going this is fun oh we're going this way now great when when things are red that is when there's pain in the market obviously we've talked on this channel before about how first of all fighter flight sets in we can't fight stock prices falling so what happens flight sets in because that's our only option as humans we don't like being backed up against the corner and continuously getting punched in the gut over and over and over again it's like just duh sell and make the pain stop right it's totally a human nature an issue in psychology when it comes to investing to want to sell when those times are happening but what's actually happening is every punch to your gut it's like your portfolio just got less risky less risky less risky and it's like ah that just that doesn't jive like like you know if they were handing you flowers like here your portfolio is less likely to decline even further every time the market was ready to be like oh okay you know especially if you have any kind of margin outstanding it's like oh gosh i keep getting closer and closer to my margin call right to your margin calls if you have margin outstanding and so psychologically it feels like oh crap getting dangerous more and more dangerous it feels like things are getting more and more risky but in reality the pressure this like the amount of pain that you need or the amount of energy that you need to get closer and closer to a margin or closer and closer to have a fall is harder and harder at every stage because you're really de-risking your portfolio here's just an extreme example if tesla today just to make this simple and i'm going to show you some some graphics here if tesla today was 1500 a share what's you know what's the capacity for that to go back you know down 75 percent well let's do that really quick so let's say fifteen hundred dollars today uh let's take seventy five percent off uh that would take tesla down to three hundred seventy five dollars well i think a lot of people would look at tesla historically just over this last year here even after the split and say well there was a lot of you know support for tesla between 375 380 and maybe 420 in that range and so i think if tesla were 1500 today a lot of folks would say yeah i mean sure it could go to the last support level 375 i mean that's a long way to go but it could happen now if tesla is let's say which it is today it's at 550 what's the capacity for tesla to go down 75 today well 550 minus 75 today would bring it to 137 i think there are a lot of us that would say uh probably not as much of a likelihood of that happening it would take a lot more pain in the market to see that kind of collapse going from 550 to 137 then it'll run up to 1500 and then it'll fall back to 375.
that would be much more likely my opinion right so in other words again my opinion here and i know a lot of people think tesla is very high valuation but let's just use tesla as an example in my opinion tesla goes up to 1500 it's much more capable of falling to 375 than it is from 550 to 137 not very likely in my opinion because any time we fall more and more people say valuation in line in my opinion let's go buy it at least the savvy investors are saying that but what do most people do in the marketplace well an easy example or an easy way to figure out what most people do is just go ahead and look at arc invests fund flow so here's how this works green lines mean money or is flowing into arc invest so right here on the left side at the beginning of this chart 46 million dollars flowed into arc invest and that was somewhere around august of 2020.
the red lines mean money is flowing out of arc invest so people are withdrawing their money from the fund so take a look at this notice this weird pattern we have at arc invest so see these this red arrow here i put a red arrow anytime we had a substantial decline or in people investing in arc invest or when people are withdrawing their money from ark invest arrow number one is right here at the beginning of september which happens to be right after tesla's split took place and we started having our september crash so we started seeing money flow out of arkhanvest during the beginning of the september crash arrow number two shows us we had an outflow right around maybe day 10 in november so around november 10th another large outflow right around here number three the end of december and then we've got the end of january and then the end of february this is where we're getting these outflows so we really saw these outflows again just to remember the beginning of september about 10 days into november end of december january and february okay pretty easy well take a look at this for a moment this is tesla's stock price tesla stock price beginning of september goes down tesla stock price around you know a week to 10 days into november goes down tesla's stock price end of december goes down tesla stock price end of january goes down tesla stock price end of february goes down at every single point tesla stock went down people took their money out of arkhanvest even though tesla is becoming less risky society follows the sheep mentality of oh my gosh it's red let's sell and get out now in general i mean they're always going to be you know those commenters that are like oh well that's because you sell when it starts falling and then once it gets to the bottom you buy back in fine go make a youtube channel and start publicly disclosing all your trades so we could see how you perfectly time the market fine okay do it i would love to see it uh and i want you to succeed i really want you to succeed but the point is the massive amount of or like the greater society that is investing into exchange-traded funds pulls money out of funds dramatically i mean look at this massive outflow we got an arc over here at end of at the end of february we almost had 400 million dollars flow out of arc in one day one freaking day 400 million dollars pulled out of arc and it always seems to line up exactly with when tesla stock is going down and this is literally people going oh my gosh the price is going down let's take our money out while the stock is de-risking this is literally the time to be putting money in because the stocks de-risked in fact watch this let's reverse the analogy here for a second let's only buy or confessed when things are red well obviously this last segment we're in red so we can't really look at february yet because we haven't had the recovery yet but let's look at the prior times let's say you bought arkhanvest around this uh end of the first week of september somewhere around the uh first to second week of november end of december and end of january let's say you bought uh into arkhanvest at those points well that means you would have bought into arc invest somewhere around the bottoms of tesla's price here and you would have averaged into the periods of time where tesla ended up performing better afterwards again like obviously our sell-off over here brings us back to a prior level but the point is if you did the opposite of what the masses did you would have ended up be still on a substantial ride upwards from november by buying at the low every time so you could literally look at for as an example here arc invests fund and just do the opposite of what the masses are doing and buying when people are selling out of ark invest by following or doing the opposite of fun flows now again we'll see we obviously expect tesla to go up again and then we can update this you know sort of breakdown here but take a look at this the other opposite thing that i did is i looked at some of the peak inflows and i marked those in green here so let's use the blue circle here and this is about the first week in january and about the first day of march where both of these were pretty green days like the first trading day in march i'm pretty sure whatever the first monday was was pretty dang green the market actually opened up very very optimistic and what's ironic about that is in each of those examples you would have ended up buying right at a particular peak before it sold off in the short term now overall my goal isn't to encourage people to try to time the market but what's fascinating is if you look at kathy woods arc invests outflows and inflows people are dumping arc invest right when it's becoming the least risky and people are plowing in when it's the most risky just to sort of nail this point think about this look at where the biggest thickest charts are are they in october or november where prices were relatively low compared to where they are now no the biggest inflows were after kathy woods fund had you know plus five percent plus five percent plus five percent day after day after day after day in december and january that's where the biggest inflows were when euphoria was at all-time highs oh can't lose money in the market with the exception of those periods of time at the end of the month where oh it fell that's it let's sell out following the trend in my opinion when it comes to investing uh unless you're doing like momentum swing trades but you have to be really deliberate about those uh calculated and have a lot of research and information about those you have to have more information on the market to really succeed on those uh which is possible to do so the market can be incredibly inefficient which does surprise a lot of people you'll be really really careful with investing when everything is green which what is everything in the market right now bloody red which is a sign that sure can prices keep going down maybe but remember what happens when prices go down you are de-risking all right joining the group on the stocks and psychology of money by the link down below coupon code does expire in a week and folks we'll see you next time you
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