저자: TheInvestorChannel진행자 · 외국인
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TSM Q4 2021 실적은 매출 15.7B달러(+24% YoY), 매출총이익률 52.7%, 영업이익률 41.7%로 양호. Q1 2022 가이던스는 매출 166~172억 달러로 제시되어 성장 지속 기대. 현금흐름상 설비투자 300억 달러 등 대규모 투자 진행, 채권 발행 130억 달러로 조달. 기술적으로 108달러 지지선, 142~143달러 저항선 돌파 여부를 주시하며, 돌파 시 상승, 저항에서 밀리면 124~115달러 매수 구간 제시.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully guys are doing well out there it's time to kick earnings season off taking a look at taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company better known as tsm the company just reported their queue for earnings so we'll take a look at the quarter but this is also the full year earnings we'll take a look at that did they beat guidance did they do well on their revenue projections did they do well from a profit perspective we'll take a look at that they also are making some massive investments in the foundries that they use to manufacture these chips so we'll take a look at that as well and we will look at this from a technical perspective and see where this stock is likely possibly headed in the coming days based on some technical analysis so over the last year this stock's up just seven percent we stretched this out to a five-year chart you're up 350 percent and you see when we get over this from a technical perspective this stock is looking a little bit like amazon or it's had this monster move and now it's going sideways we'll talk about that from a technical perspective here in a moment now the earnings just came in this was q4 revenue came in at 15.74 billion dollars that's up oh just 24 year over year that's absolutely fantastic their gross margin in the quarter was 52.7 operating margins came in at 41.7 now that doesn't mean a whole lot in comparison because what we want to do is take a look at the upcoming quarter so they gave us q1 2022 outlook so what the revenues and the profits and the results we'll go through is actually q4 we'll talk about those here in a moment but they gave us q1 guidance so that's the upcoming quarter they're expecting revenues to come in at about 16.6 billion dollars i just told you they had a quarter where they printed 15.7 that's absolutely fantastic growth and on the upside of that revenue they might go as high as 17.2 billion dollars gross profit between 53 and 55 i just told you their gross margin in the most recent quarter was 52 so we're growing revenues at a very nice rate quarter over quarter year over year and we're growing those margins as well operating profits between 42 and 44 i just told you they came in at 41.7 absolutely fantastic and it looks like this company is firing on all cylinders let's see when we look at these revenues so this company does report things in the new taiwan dollar over here on the right hand column but they did give us a united states dollar on the left-hand column that is what we'll focus on but we could also take these growth rates from a quarter over quarter perspective over here and a year-over-year perspective as well even though these are in their local currency we can still use those growth rates so we've got our net revenue coming in at that 15.7 billion dollars again i told you in the upcoming quarter they're looking to do between 16.6 and 17.2 that's absolutely phenomenal growth just quarter of a quarter let alone the year-over-year print that is likely to do we have some operating expenses obviously it's not cheap to make these products that tsm makes we have 7.4 billion dollars worth of cost of revenue but we still have a nice gross profit off 15.7 billion dollars worth of revenue you have this gross profit of about 18.287 billion dollars that is up 8.5 percent just quarter over quarter and year over year coming in at 18.2 percent that top line coming in at with the aforementioned 21.2 percent growth rate on that now we do have some operating expenses research and development came in at 1.1 billion dollars that's up four percent a quarter of a quarter and 7.7 percent year over year no problems there selling general administrative expenses came in at 561 million dollars those were up considerably up 45 quarter of a quarter and 86 year-over-year but 561 million dollars off of 15.7 billion dollars worth of revenue is essentially a rounding error so no big deal and as those expenses increase i'm not really super concerned my guess is some of these expenses the fact that they're accelerating this much 45 quarter of a quarter 86 year-over-year it could be some year-end bonuses some year-end salaries but it also could be tied to the fact that this company as we'll see in cash flows they're making major investments in their business and it could be driving up those expenses as you have travel costs and other things associated with building new factories our total operating expenses came in at 1.7 billion dollars that's up 15 quarter of a quarter and 24 call it 25 year over year so you take this 8.2 billion dollars in gross profit you take our operating expenses of 1.7 billion and you get down here to income from operations coming in at 6.5 billion dollars in the quarter year over year that's up 16 quarter of a quarter up seven percent you can come down through to net income and you see down here that the company made five point eight to seven billion dollars in the quarter that's up 28 year over year and up five percent quarter of a quarter and based on the guidance that we have for the upcoming q1 you got to imagine these results likely to continue now from a balance sheet perspective company has plenty of cash got over 38 billion dollars worth of cash that is up considerably i'll show you where the bulk of that cash came from from a liability perspective they've got a little bit of debt some payables some bonds that they've just taken out but nothing that i would be too concerned about based on the strong operating results that this company has also the customers that this company has in the pipeline the apples and and those such customers no need to worry about any kind of investment that this company is doing at the current time now i did want to take a look at cash flows that's what we're looking at here we've got our cash flows this is for the full year in this left-hand column so we've got 2021 here we've got a united states dollar we pull down our income before income tax of 23.7 billion dollars now this company because they're building factories they have a lot of factories that they've built they have a lot of depreciation which is this line here they get to add this back in because this is essentially a non-cash charge that came in at 15.1 billion dollars you get net cash generated by their operating activities coming in at 39.8 billion dollars we can see here in their local currency went from 378 up from 259 year over year on that quarterly basis so you're seeing that this company is generated obviously when you're generating this much net income over and above last year you're expecting that to flow down through to the cash flows from operations that's exactly what you're seeing now here's the key thing with this company is they're investing heavily in their business take a look at this property plant and equipment in the most recent year came in at 30 billion dollars hello that's a big investment in the most recent quarter excuse me the most recent year because what i want to show you is take a look at just the fourth quarter this is in the taiwan dollar they went from two up from 235 all the way up from 88 so man major investments in the most recent quarter and certainly in the most recent year this company is spending a ton of their free cash flow like i talked about they had 39 billion dollars worth of free cash flow they invested 30 billion of that back into property plant and equipment now the way they're financing some of this okay they're not burning through all the cash because you come here net cash used in financing activities they actually are positive down here because you see these proceeds of issuance of bonds in the last year they issued over 13 billion dollars worth of bonds i would guess primarily almost exclusively to pay for this property plant and equipment i think they've got a factory out here in the united states i think they've got some globally as well they're starting to diversify geographically which could help quench some fears of this company that some people fear that china could take over where this company operates and that could be a i think that is a large risk factor for this company but as they expand their operation and manufacturing capabilities outside their home country it could help diminish that risk to a certain degree now from a technical perspective i wanted to zoom this out and just showed you this is kind of like the google chart this thing went on a monster run it was down here about 45 dollars and it went on a run all the way up to about 142 and so that got broken though technically it got broken here so i'm going to take out that line we don't this line doesn't really mean a whole lot i want to zoom into our sideways consolidation which is where we are now i just put some bold lines down here if it wasn't already really apparent but you have the bottom end of the range of consolidation down here at 108 okay and it bottomed this is a hard level of support you see here this stock to almost the penny bottomed out at this 108 and i'm rounding these numbers off it's more specifically about 107 108 11 depending on where you want to draw this line but almost to the factor of you know pennies this stock is bottomed now down here if you get this stock to pull back for whatever reason down here to 108 that should signal an absolute smoking hot buying opportunity now this stock is actually trading up in the pre-market i am recording this before the market actually begins i do want to make note of that and so depending on where the market happens what happens in the market you know who knows where this stock will end at the end of the day but we can get a general idea that the market absolutely love the results and i think they loved even more this forward guidance into q1 this is just absolutely fantastic it's what investors absolutely dream of so the stock is right where this blue line that's actually where the stock is trading right now yesterday we were down here at 132 now we're up here at 139 is it happy dance time not yet i think you need to get above the previous highs now we did get above a little intermediate high here that was at 134 the stock was actually kind of butting its head on that yesterday and now we've broken up above that but i've got this hard red line up here and i made it red for a reason that we need to get above this okay and that line right now is at about 142 depending on where you want to draw that in 142 143 you really need to get solidly above that okay we've seen nvidia do this we've seen other stocks like microsoft and apple get above their previous highs and then it's off to the races i think you could trade this from a trade perspective kind of a breakout trade so you buy the rip above the previous highs you stretch your stop loss again right here because these stocks almost always come back and back test this line again this area of resistance and then you could pray the breakup you could look it in an nvidia chart a microsoft chart multiple stocks over the last year have broken above previous highs and then ran quite a bit 20 30 sometimes even upwards of 40 especially when you're looking at an nvidia now the opposite could happen we could walk back up to this line and get rejected and come back down that is actually i think the likely scenario with this one and if that does happen you have some buying opportunities on the way back here i think the first firm one that i would be excited about is back here about 124 dollars per share and then as you see underneath that i have some smaller lines here i've made them thin for a reason you've got buying opportunities at 120 all the way back down to about 115 and then obviously if we get a major pullback likely in the broader markets get an opportunity down here at the bottom end of this consolidation range at 108.
i would be monitoring tsm very closely if you're in this one for the long haul i wouldn't be out i wouldn't be concerned one bit you'd really look good and your portfolio performance would be really good if you broke above these highs but if it gets rejected here it does create some buying opportunities we'll see how tsm trades in the coming days but this company is firing on all cylinders the guidance look great and these quarterly earnings look great as well hopefully you guys have a great week we'll see you again soon good luck with your investments
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