저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 증시는 트럼프 트레이드가 풀리며 부진하고, 금과 해외(특히 신흥국) 주식이 유리하다는 입장. [달러·증시 흐름] 연초 이후 달러가 트럼프 당선 이후 상승분을 전부 반납했고, S&P500은 금 기준으로 하락 상태라고 주장. 미국 증시는 전 세계에서 가장 부진한 시장 중 하나이며, 신흥국 증시는 강세를 보임. [금] 금은 1266달러 부근에서 횡보 중이며, 하반기에 해외 증시 강세가 가속될 것으로 전망. [연준·금리] 연준은 긴축 사이클 종료 국면에 근접했고, 이후 금리 인하 사이클로 전환될 가능성을 제시. 반대로 유럽중앙은행(ECB)은 완화 종료 후 긴축으로 전환할 것으로 봄. 실질금리는 물가상승률을 감안하면 여전히 마이너스라고 주장. [경기] 소매 점포 폐쇄, 자동차 판매, 재고 누적, 가계부채(카드·자동차·학자금 대출) 등을 근거로 실제 경기가 약하다고 판단. 아마존 점유율 확대는 있지만 전체 소매 시장은 위축 중이라고 주장. [정책] 트럼프 정책(감세·정부지출 확대)은 일부 통과될 수 있으나, 공화당의 정치적 용기 부족과 엔타이틀먼트·군사비 지출 문제로 재정적자 개선은 어렵다고 평가. [출연자 - 금 트레이드 관련 진행자 발언] 진행자 Jeff는 금 1260 매수, 목표 1285, 손절 1245 제시. 리스크 대비 보상은 약 2500 대 1500 수준. [리스크] 달러가 96 아래로 하락하면 금 강세 논리 강화. 증시 조정이 나오면 금 상승 가능성 언급. [출연자 전망] 시장 전반은 현재 고평가 상태이며, 단기 조정 가능성을 열어둠.
다듬은 글
okay speaking of DC our next guest sees more road bumps ahead for President Trump Peter Schiff is the CEO of euro pacific capital and he joins us now Peter have been on assignment or vacation or whatever the last few times that you're on so I'm glad to have you back today let's get straight to it and talk about the markets and what you're seeing you know we just traded the SP it seems that the Trump trade is alive and well and markets are continuing to fly hi what are your thoughts well I think the trade is unraveled a bit remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the dollar has surrendered a hundred percent of its gains post Trump's election and so year-to-date even though the S&P is up priced in gold the SP is actually down and if you compare the US stock market to other stock markets around the world the US stock market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks and that's what I've been doing well Gold's been bouncing around but we're stuck right now 1266 that's not exactly a massively successful trade if you ask me over the last couple of months well year-to-date it's up more than the Dow is up more than the S&P 500 and even though the SP has made a new high it's not much higher than it was a few months ago so the US markets have been pretty steady while foreign markets have been much stronger emerging markets have been very strong and I expect this trend to continue and I think it will accelerate in the second half of the year okay Jim's going to jump in the dollars retraced everything as you said is the dollar saying conclusively that Donald Trump's gonna get no pro-growth policies through and do you agree with it well I don't think it's really an indictment of Trump more of the Federal Reserve and I think that even if the Fed hikes again in a couple of weeks I mean they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the Fed claimed to be data dependent and they hike interest rates despite the fact that the data was much weaker than they thought I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress okay peanut but from a broader standpoint and the fact that Donald Trump can't get anything done and we've lost confidence in that trunk train its unraveled as you said him being there and not having another administration that seemed to target corporations I'm just throw me a bone is it slightly more positive than the situation that existed six eight months ago well absolutely look having a byzant who is business friendly as opposed to the enemy of business is a good thing but look the valuations are not going to help Trump remember when George Bush took over from Bill Clinton he was obviously more friendly to business than was Bill Clinton but it didn't stop the stock market from collapsing because when he took office valuations were extremely high and we had to fed propping up the market with aggressive monetary policy I mean not nearly as aggressive as it's been recently but I think Donald Trump has walked into a similar situation as George Bush so even if he's friendlier to business it doesn't mean the stock market is going to do well under his presidency Peter you and I haven't talked in some time but you have come on the show a lot telling me that the Fed has no option but other than to institute more quantitative easing programs and that interest rates would stay at zero forever that doesn't seem to be the case what are the feds moves now well the Fed is still very close to zero I mean really the target rate is still below 1% okay but we're looking at potentially two more hikes this year well even if we get two more hikes you're looking at interest rates that in real terms are negative if you take the interest rate and subtract it from the inflation rate even the one that the government reports you're looking at negative interest rates but if you actually look beneath the government statistics look at how weak the economy has been I mean you can see that in the retailers that are blowing up all the stores that are being shut down you can see look at the auto sales that are out again today look at the inventories piling up look at all the debt that consumers have racked up credit card debt auto loans student loans look what's happening with labor for here's a patient so the economy is still weak despite all of this fed stimulus Peter you have two of the things you just threw out there when you said about retail you have to admit that's more of a Jeff Bezos factor than it is of any sort of commentary on the consumer you do not agree with that no I don't I do agree that more people are shopping on Amazon but the sales at Amazon do not equal all the sales that are being lost at all the brick-and-mortar stores that are shutting down yes the market share at Amazon is growing but the overall market is shrinking because Americans are broke they have lousy jobs they have no savings and they're maxed out on their borrowing and a lot of Americans that used to have home equity no longer have homes they're now renting and their rent goes up every year Peter we bring it back to DC and you know your sort of take on the markets at this point if Trump doesn't get any major policy reform through this year what happens do we crack well look I do think that we're going to get some combination of tax cuts and increased government spending through Congress and it may be the reaction to the fact that we go back into recession and it's and it's sold as a stimulus rather than as tax reform but unfortunately you know there's no real political courage among the Republicans to do what's right when it comes to tax reform repealing Obamacare and not replacing it with anything we need the free market to solve our health care problems not more government and the other problem is Trump himself you know what he ran for president he promised not to touch entitlements he promised to increase spending on the military and we're not going to make any real progress on the deficit unless we cut entitlements unless we cut military spending so once you take that off the table it doesn't really matter what they do with the discretionary spending because it's not enough to make a real difference okay Peter always great to have you and to get your views we'll talk to you soon okay Jeff let's get straight into it as I mentioned gold trading 1266 now Peter is saying that you know this has been a stellar trade I look to your to date we're up 10 percent so would you be a buyer here I think you give me a buyer at the right level and looking at 12 60 at my level just about $3 lower and why buy large you the fact the way I envision the stock market I see a lofty Pricer here so anytime retracement any type of normal healthy pullback in the SP should vault the gold trade up to 1300 so I'm trying to be a buyer Harriett 1260 looking for 1285 my target being mindful of that 1250 level and I'm stopping out at 12:45 I like this trade a lot for more medium and longer-term than Jeff does - I've like gold for quite a while I agree with about 70 to 80 percent of what Peter says at the time what I don't agree with is that we are on a one-way course and there's no possible way to deviate from it but as far as the gold thing goes I like to trade a lot if the dollar breaks through 96 on the downside I like never go from liking it to loving it and that's the key component Peter you know he gets off the reservation a little bit on some of his views but he does hit the nail on the head the six percent drop in the dollar since January first that's not automatic an astounding and Janet Yellen is quite perplexed she's got any scratch your head right now so there is a panic level in the US dollar index where she potentially versus course at least slows down the rate normalization we met in itself Jackie spies gold how much does the drop in the dollar index actually have to do with what's going on here versus the other currencies that we've been watching closely - and I think it's I think it has everything to do with their that this is a currency war we've been in a curtsy war ever since we roll up QE so that evan flow the BOJ ECB and the Federal Reserve I think all by large and genielle's losing her yes but Jackie you make a good point I mean we think of reasons that don't have to do with them kissing up right now no no we were pricing in apocalypse in Europe and it doesn't seem like it's gonna happen they're almost getting a point where they're gonna be in a tightening cycle I agree the owner presenter I'd say it's 5050 I think we have taken out the trunk trade when we've seen how difficult it seems for anything agree the Fed wants that dollar stagnation they loved it when it 100 hundred one right now in 97 they are scratching their heads it's the first time Danielle has been really perplexed I would say in her paw one of the reasons they talk tough in my opinion okay guys we do have to move on so let's get the risk/reward on the gold trade Jeff's buying at 1260 start getting a move to 1285 each point in this trade is worth a hundred so he's risking 2500 to make 1,500 you
Comments 0