Bill Gross - US Treasurys Benefit From Lower Global Rates - 16 Jun 16 | Gazunda

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Brexit 찬반 투표(6/23)에 따른 시장 리스크와 저금리 환경에서 미국채의 상대적 강세를 설명하는 인터뷰. 한 줄 결론: 브렉시트 불확실성은 위험자산에 불리하며, 저금리 환경에서 미국채와 일부 모기지REIT(애널리 캐피털)가 매력적이다. 브렉시트 리스크: 영국 EU 탈퇴 가능성은 프랑스·이탈리아 등 다른 회원국의 탈EU 확산 우려로 이어질 수 있으며, 이는 유럽 성장 기대를 위협한다. 위험자산 영향: 주식·하이일드 등 위험자산은 지정학적 안정과 성장에 의존하므로, 성장 위협 시 위험자산이 불리해진다. 파운드화는 이미 약세를 보였고, 대규모 헤지 포지션이 확률 변화에 따라 빠르게 이동하며 변동성을 키운다. 독일채·일본채 강세: 독일 단기 국채가 마이너스 금리에도 매수되는 것은 안전자산 선호와 현금 보관 한계로 인한 투자처 부족 때문이다. 최근 채권 강세는 미국채가 주식보다 나은 흐름을 보였다는 관찰로 이어진다. 미국채 전망: 일본 등에서 금리가 하락하면서 미국채가 상대적으로 매력적이며, 달러 강세가 더해지면 일본 투자자에게 이중 수익 효과가 있다. 일본 30년물은 20bp 하락해 0.28% 수준이라는 언급이 있었다. 모기지REIT: 애널리 캐피털(Annaly)은 레버리지가 은행(8~10배)보다 낮은 약 6배이며 정부보증 자산에 투자한다. 단기금리 변동과 조기상환이 리스크이지만 약 11% 수익률은 현재 환경에서 매력적이라고 평가했다. 출연자 전망: 브렉시트 이후 유럽 불확실성이 지속되며 채권 중심 자산배분이 유리하다는 입장이다.

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01. looks like it could mean who knows where the poles are we'll find out in the 23rd it's you how big of a risk is this well I think it is a risk not necessarily because the UK might leave the EU but it's a risk in terms of the follow-on that others might think of the same example that France by the way or Italy might suddenly decide that their own domestic internal policies you know should be favored versus that of a larger EU family and so you know if if brexit wins then fear gets into the marketplace and positions in terms of expectations for growth anemic as it isn't in euroland become threatened well it's so accordionist pole is a real possibility so your job is to anticipate and invest about what might happen or is likely to happen in the future so when you look at the possibility of a brexit or an EU dissolution of some kind of course that's a decade-long proposition how are you or how should you or how will you invest around that well this is just one additional element that does not favor risk assets because risk assets are dependent on growth there depending upon yeah even in high-yield market on relative stability and to the extent from a geopolitical standpoint that growth is threatened then risk assets are at risk and of course currencies you know we just saw that the pound was much weaker you know there are hundreds of billions of positions you know that that hedge against these possibilities and as one becomes more probable than the other than money moves quickly and causes volatility and instability so all of that is but it's interesting though because the German and I wanna get too deep in the woods on buns and jgbs but you know the German government bonds are yielding nothing negative actually on the short term so people are still buying them despite these risks how do you square that well duh just parked a certain extent they have to and to get back to the I mean Treasuries are the flight to quality asset would think I don't know but in the last five to ten minutes based on this poll the treasures are doing better in stocks are doing worse why do people buy German guns at a minus 25 basis points people don't banks do because that they must invest somewhere and and so in this finance based economy the alternative is cash and there's just not enough vault space to store cash and so they invest where they can on an electronic type of base is that does what's happening in Japan and does what's happening potentially in England and you make us assets equities Treasuries corporate bonds more or less attractive more attractive I mean for instance in Japan which i think is the the nexus of the last two or three week bull market rally in Treasuries if you know their 30-year bond is is moved down by 20 basis points it's now at 28 basis points and so the Japanese basically say well you know a 30-year Treasury at 250 plus the possibility that the dollar itself strengthened said oh that's a double play for them and so no US Treasuries benefit from these lower interest rates in Japan and elsewhere and to wrap it up we you know we think of you as the bond King but with the unconstrained fun I mean the word means you can kind of do what you want you and I spoke earlier you like certain mortgage REITs like an Annaly Capital correct yes um and the reason this is these are near banks they don't carry FDIC insurance nly detector on that deposit springs you know why is the ticker there near banks their leverage six times banks are levered eight nine ten times so actually they're less levered they invest in government guaranteed assets but the risk is is that interest rates short-term interest rates and prepayments will you know disturb the mix and so these are riskless investments but they do carry an eleven percent yield and in this day and age I think that's an attractive return relative to the risk