저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 당선 이후 신흥시장 자금 유출 우려가 있지만 Mobius는 이를 일시적이라고 봄. 금리: 트럼프가 높은 금리를 원한다고 보며, 이는 미국 복귀 자금으로 신흥국 채권에 불리하다고 함. 다만 자금 이동은 일시적이라는 입장. 주식: 신흥시장 주식은 미국 경기 호조와 저평가(미국 대비 저렴)를 근거로 괜찮을 것이라고 봄. 신흥국 성장률은 미국·유럽의 두 배 수준이며 인구 구조, 인터넷 확산, 기술 이전, 개혁 기대가 근거. 무역: TTIP 등 다자 협정은 어려워지고 양자 협상 중심으로 갈 것이라고 봄. 트럼프는 사업가형 협상가라 국가별로 합의에 도달할 것이라는 입장. 멕시코는 상호 이익 합의가 될 것이라며 위기설에 동의하지 않음. 환율: 멕시코 페소는 변동성이 커 저점에서 투기적 기회가 될 수 있다고 봄. 일부 통화는 약세가 계속되겠지만 여러 신흥국 통화는 달러 대비 강해지고 현 수준에서 안정될 것으로 봄. 헤지 필요성은 통화별로 다르다는 입장. 원자재: 원자재 가격은 계속 회복될 것으로 전망. 리스크: 무역 협상 결과에 따라 신흥국 수출 타격 가능성, 환율 변동성 확대 가능성 언급. 중앙은행 개입(인도, 인도네시아) 사례 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 신흥시장 주식 중기 긍정, 신흥시장 채권 단기 부정, 환율은 개별 통화별 대응 필요.
다듬은 글
look there are emerging markets that will be slammed because investors will put outflows they'll say look if Donald Trump put some of these policies in place I want to be in the u.s. not emerging markets I think that's a good point I think that's the thinking that you're at and that's a pro real problem going forward but the real challenge I think will be interest rates I believe Trump wants higher interest rates because the people who elected him fell upon getting low interest in their bank savings and of course for the fixed income market in emerging markets that's not good because money will go back into the US but it will be temporary his regards to the equity that's a different story and I believe that equities and emerging markets will do fine because the US economy will be doing fine and the US administration will take a very practical approach in their negotiations with Mexico with China with all these other countries right but mark what about Trey bilateral trade is the one sticking point right a lot of these exports from emerging markets will be weakened and we saw even today we saw yesterday central banks from India to India Indonesia stepping in to stabilize their currencies that's no question that will that's a good point but what will happen i believe is that these emerging markets like China India and others will depend more and more on their domestic market not on export markets commodities of course I believe will continue to rise will recover which will be good for some emerging markets not all but I believe from a point of view of the administration's stance in the u.s.
it'll be more practicality rather than a blanket situation with exports and imports all right but do you assume that TTIP is done in the water and actually do you assume that overall free trade is going to be much more complicated definitely there will be much more complicated multilateral agreements will go out the door it'll be more bad agreements and I believe it will be fine Trump is in negotiator he's a businessman and he'll reach agreements with these countries dr.
Mobius emerging markets coming out of the 2008 crisis based in US dollars have been in nothing but a flat to bear market bring up the chart if you would Anthony and you can see here the arc of disappointment of emerging markets again not based in their own currencies but based in US dollars dr. Mobius when I look at that I want you to state the case for am investment or to eat does even Mark Mobius have to move to the emerging market known as the United States of America well if you look at the last three years there's no question that emerging markets about to perform but if you look at it from January this year to now you don't see that emerging markets have I'll perform the US market I believe will continue for very good reasons first population structure in these countries younger younger population great growth in consumerism secondly internet is having an incredible impact transfer of technology is very very big now third emerging markets are growing at double the rate of that of the United States and Europe right well doc dr.
Mobius fourthly I believe you are gonna get reform in these countries okay I agree with everything you've said but this is absolutely critical if we have a presumed currency war within the macroeconomics of the global economy does Mark Mobius have to own emerging markets always hedged against currency depreciation help global Wall Street this morning do they need to affect every trade with a currency hedge in some cases that will be necessary some currencies are going to continue to get weaker there's no question about that but remember there many currencies in the emerging markets world that are getting stronger against the US dollar and I believe will stabilize now at these levels right but market you seem to be talking to your book i mean this this cannot be good news talk to me about the countries that are really going to suffer if the policies that we think Donald Trump will push through will become reality I frankly can't think of any countries that will really suffer badly as a result of his policies and the proof is in the pudding it will really depend on what kind of negotiations take place I believe let's take Mexico for example if you look at the situation Mexico it looks dire Trump is going to build a wall there's gonna be restrictions I don't think these things are gonna come to pass I believe at the end of the day he'll make an agreement with Mexico which will be mutually beneficial to both countries mark I want to bring up mexican peso again I showed this chart earlier in the hour mark we're almost out to three standard deviations depreciation on the latest run-up of Mexico back a year and a half is there an ability here for emerging market currencies and New Mexico is an n 11 nation where it truly unravels based on naive policies by Republicans in Washington I believe that you can see the mexican peso as a great opportunity because the volatility is incredible and if you can catch it at a low level you could probably make a lot of money just speculating on the currency but okay let's say the mexican peso gets very weak exports will do very well and not only to the US but tell the countries and i believe exports the US are not going to stop they're gonna continue okay mark how much I think we have to look at what the policies are right let's look at the policies let's wait for the details but is it a given that actually we're gonna see a lot more volatility from now onwards not only inequities overall not only in currencies but especially in emerging markets I think you have to differentiate between fixed income and equities my view is that equities and measure markets have tremendous opportunities now they're much cheaper than the US market and I mentioned the growth and all the other factors that are very important to see good results with emerging connect please
Comments 0