저자: BillGross · 외국인
요약 보기
2016년 7월 기준 Bill Gross는 연준이 올해 한 번 금리를 올릴 것으로 보며, 시장이 반영한 인상폭(12개월 내 0.5회, 이후 12개월 0.5회)을 대체로 수긍하는 입장이다. 채권 시장 평가: 전 세계 약 12조 달러 규모의 국채가 마이너스 금리 구간에 있고, 독일 국채 금리는 40bp 미만, 일본 40년물 JGB는 0 이하라며 채권 시장이 '불합리한(absurd)' 수준이라고 진단했다. 다만 독일 은행·보험사는 자금을 운용해야 하므로 채권을 사야 하는 구조적 수요가 있다고 설명했다. 투자 전략: 리스크 대비 수익이 가장 높은 자산을 찾아야 한다고 보며, 모든 자산군이 위험하지만 중앙은행 정책 변동성이 크게 바뀌지 않을 것이라는 전제하에 옵션 매도(옵셔널리티 판매)로 수익을 높이는 방식을 언급했다. 10년물 금리 1.4% 수준에서 연 5~6% 수익을 목표로 하는 것이 예시로 제시됐다. 주식·자산 언급: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 글로벌 리스크: 영국 부동산, 이탈리아 은행의 구제금융 요청, 중국 증시의 이상 움직임 등을 거론하며 고레버리지 세계에서 여러 잠재 문제가 있다고 경고했다. 회색 백조(gray swan) 수준의 꼬리 위험을 준비해야 한다는 입장이다. 중국 디플레이션 수출: 중국이 6~7%(연환산 약 10%) 위안화를 절하하며 디플레이션을 수출하고 있고, 이는 미국 제조업 기반을 침식한다고 봤다. 옐런 연준 의장이 금리 인상을 말하는 것은 이를 더 악화시킬 수 있다고 지적했다. 결론적으로 연준 금리 인상은 연 1회 정도로 제한적일 것이며, 채권은 비싸고 위험하다는 시각을 유지하고 있다.
다듬은 글
your call is for how many rate moves this year well the market only calls for a half over the next 12 months and the 12 months beyond that another half so 12 basis Points each uh that's that's the market I I I think they raise once or try to raise once and if they continue to get employment numbers like this and uh if they can get those wages up uh then you know perhaps they'll have their chance later in the year I think they they really do want to raise rates I think some of them like Bullard and Evans have a sense that they need higher interest rates in order to balance out the savings versus investment element in the uh economy and the markets come back right now we had stronger Yen and then we had weaker Yen off the shock of the report a good report with good revisions and then we've got the Yen coming back again Bill gross I without question in our lifetimes this is the most price to Perfection bond market market we've ever seen has your day-to-day life changed when you see yields I mean the yield goes from 139 to 141 these are shocking yields and shocking Bond valuations what are you doing daytoday within this milu yeah I agree with you I don't think it's priced to Perfection I'll change that a little bit if you will permit me Tom it's priced to absurdity and and so you know one knows that $12 trillion worth of Sovereign bonds are in negative yield space one knows that in in Germany that the ECB can't really buy 40% of German bonds because they're yielding less than 40 basis points one knows in Japan that almost everything including the 40-year jgb is at zero or less and so it's an absurd market and what do you do is the question well you obviously don't buy uh those bonds that that's something that uh German banks and insurance companies have have to buy because they got to put their money somewhere and so you look for substitutes and some some type of certainty that the trick in this business Tom is is is to buy the highest return relative to the risk I I would say every asset class is at risk the question is which one is at less risk and I think I think my dominant premise is that central banks will continue to do what they do uh despite the fact that I disagree with it and if that's the case then the the volatility of Central Bank uh positions the volatility of the policy rates around the the world in the developed world will stay relatively constant and so you want to uh take advantage of that by selling optionality around it that would include buying mortgages that would include selling outright options that would include you know basically uping your income from something like 1.4 on our 10year to something like five or 6% on an annual right and to do with Janice Capital jargon alert folks when Mr gross sells options those derivatives that brings in an income stream uh to his fund to keep them in chips Bill gross if I look at into the weekend and into July into the second half is Bill gross looking at Janet yellen's American World and for that matter a troubled Europe is in equilibrium or are the disequilibrium so great that you need to be vigilant for exogenous shocks well yeah I think one must uh be prepared and and how fat is that fat tail um it it's hard to say but it um you know it doesn't approach a Black Swan but maybe a a gray Swan there are problems everywhere I talked about the UK uh property situation we know the Italian banks are now asking for a a bailout as opposed to a bail in uh we're not quite sure what's going on with China but uh you know I observed that the Chinese stock markets you know basically uh stay level uh throughout the entire night each and every night and so one has to suspect that some Uh something's going on there I I I I simply think yeah that there's a a potential problems almost everywhere in a highly levered world and and that's the key Tom when you have a highly levered world then uh almost anything can set it all okay I know Mike mcke wants to get in here with a lot of questions let me ask one more question before we go to my colleague uh Bill Gro Ambrose Evans Pritchard wrote a brilliant article overnight in the telegraph about China exporting their deflation over to us is Janet Yellen running a non-orthodox policy because she's got to accept the disinflation from China and the rest of a troubled economic World well I think she does and certainly if she continues to talk about raising interest rates that would uh make it even worse yes China you know as they devalue by six or 7% over the last seven or eight months maybe 10% annualized is exporting deflation and some investors don't quite understand how that could be the case but it it basically means that uh you know we can buy uh Chinese Goods much cheaper that it basically erods our manufacturing base as it becomes uh less competitive etc etc and so China exports their deflation to the rest of the world Yellen how does she fight that well she certainly doesn't fight it with a stronger uh dollar and and with a interest rate hike and so yeah I I think that uh tempers her behavior uh certainly to some extent
Comments 0