저자: 미상 · 외국인
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1월 CPI·PPI 등 인플레이션 지표가 예상보다 높게 나와 시장이 급변동했다. 인플레이션은 직선으로 내려가지 않고 재상승하는 여러 번의 피크(Three Peaks) 패턴이 나타날 수 있으며, 연준은 고금리를 장기간 유지할 가능성이 크다. 금리 인하 시점은 5~6월 이후로 늦춰질 것으로 보이고, 10년물 금리 상승으로 TLT(장기채)는 조정을 받았으나 93~95 구간 지지를 본다. 발언자 중 한 명은 금리 상승이 자신의 휠 전략에 유리하다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys tra st how inflation reports Haw is back to something Michael bur talked about a while ago and how I was dead wrong about inflation Dylan was right on this one we're g to talk about the predictions here in a minute two stupid guys STS can you um could you say the last part again Dylan was right okay I couldn't hear it on the record you want me to call your mom or your wife and tell her that either you know no they know yeah I doubt they know um so this week was kind of wild in the market right did you see this like massive Cliff sell off here in the morning as day TR yeah yeah pretty intense and then you know we also got another little little blip here on Friday did you see like the news stories that kind of drove those and what thisk back to I know that inflation came out a lot hotter than expected but it recovered fairly fast in fact TLT which is inflation dependent kind of that's not necessarily true but kind of dipped broke its 93 level which I talked about in another video and then immediately recovered so yeah yeah the trading around has been kind of interesting but like my point here that I wanted to illustrate with this video is you know heting back to Prior episodes of inflation a little bit and how you know it's not a oneandone episode sometimes and like there's a lot of lessons to be learned from that um if you remember bur talking about this bull whip effect that might be a little bit of what we have going on here where we're starting to see these fasiculations in the interest rate um I'm sorry interest rate in inflation rate that's part of the the kind of thought process here is as we're approaching you know back to more towards a normal level it still get these little kind of like bumps and speed bumps and that's what we saw this week we got like a little speed bump in the inflation story and the market reacted pretty violently to that yeah they definitely do not want they want the red cuts it it's not going to come till May or later in my opinion yeah so I have the prediction here from the latest C uh group in in the yeah um now you know this is the CPI headline number in case you haven't seen it this is the overall chart we have come down obviously significantly from we where as at Peak um but we started to see these kind of little flattening out here and these little kind of fications around this level the core CPI which is the the more problematic you know this is a you know headline CPI minus food and energy which are a little bit more volatile gets a little bit smoother curve out of this whole thing um it's stabilizing at a higher level than the headline CPI in part driven by the you know the different kind of components that are included there right that was the number that came out on Tuesday and we had the the pretty dramatic selloff ppi is the one that came out on Friday all right and we also had like a not so great opening in fact we had our first like negative week for the spy in what four or five weeks it's been a little while we've been in like a you know ridiculous uh upward Trend right yeah it's it's just Nvidia and meta keeping everything afloat that's it's it's such a skewed you can't even trust the Spy or the q's as the overall Market anymore because there's four companies that are like 20% or more for each and they AI so it doesn't matter it's absolutely astounding uh and when we look at this this core PP number same thing it's kind of stabilizing a little higher rate than the headline number um we're seeing it kind of flatten out at level which is still above Target which is kind of the real struggle here this is your beloved TLT Doan I mean look at that like ridiculous uh Cliff that it fell off of in the morning on Tuesday um and then you know it started to recover by like the end of the week a little bit but you know we're still down 1% over the last five days as long as it hovers around this 93 to 95 is range with more precisely 91 to 100 I'm golden honestly this sounds odd but this increase in inflation helps my wheel strategy a lot because the longer we go at with no rate changes the more money I get to make yeah yeah fair enough the mortgage rates pop up uh back over 7% as a result of this as well case I hadn't seen that did because right bonds and interest rates they kind of have this inverse relationship with each other bond prices that is so you know you saw the 10-year treasury yield pop up you know want to say with his high is like 4.2% whereas you know we were below 4% not that long ago um that's why you've seen TLT that was went up to like a 100 and now it's come back down a little bit and cooled off because the the 10year yield rate has has come up right I just you can't have housing prices and an interest rate that high it's just not conducive to the economy yeah so you remember when bur was talking about this how each inflationary cycle typically had like Three Peaks remember this this is long time ago this is a while ago little bit of the story here right is that we're seeing you know the unfortunate fact is that you know inflation is not going to resolve and a straight line down is that it's going to persist a little bit longer at a higher level than we'd like it to be and you're going to see a couple of Peaks hopefully you know you said the largest one is well pasted um but we may see a couple of shorter term Peaks on its return back to that 2% Target the Federal Reserve has set um this is that CME watch tool and look at these numbers now you know I didn't put a comparison chart in here but you and I follow us relatively regularly so you kind of get a good idea of the ballpark at one point they were calling for a decent chance of a rate cut at this March meeting already now look at this they're saying 90% you know likelihood that it does not get a recut in March it only or and above 50 that it doesn't get a cut in May let's go now now the market is targeting a June potential First Rate cut and even then it's like not entirely certain yeah I mean that's that's a heads or taals percentage you know so as far as like going forward what are things looking at right we had PC will be coming out um for the month of January not too distant future that's chairman Powell's favorite go-to um he has said that explicitly in particular you're looking at the non-housing services sector that's been like the most resistant one to coming back to reality um and it's largely driven by labor and it's largely driven by labor and non-construction related entities the real struggle is going to be um what that number looks like and then you know what the pattern of that is for the a little while here because Powell has been very very clear that he is following Paul voc's kind of Playbook of keeping at it and he would much rather keep these rates higher than than you know he would think necessary for longer than you know we would think necessary in order to ensure that we do not get any more peaks of infl infation because back in the 70s you're looking at inflation Peaks to get higher and higher you know so far we've only seen them come a little bit lower we haven't had another Peak where that's been anywhere approaching the first one but hopefully that doesn't happen so I think the lesson here is that we may be living in this higher rate interest rate environment for quite a while I was being a little bit Cavalier or misinformed or stupid guy in that I thought they would start to cut rates like you know you know maybe March to June of this year and now like it uh my my perception has has really swung that we may be looking at high rates throughout the majority of this year at a better minimum now they had a Dot Plot which suggested 75 basis points of cuts during this year but that's just their expectation and we saw how wrong they were about their expectations on the increas rates too so I I seem to remember that you uh put your money on a March uh rate decrease if I remember correctly I do have a question regarding these percentages how many people are are voting because there's there's two people that have a serious problem that one year from now they think the rates are going to be at three which is that's just it's not gonna happen no that's a good point uh you might be thinking they might be kind of counting on a recession that was one thing bur talked about I don't remember what slot it was on here uh but he was saying like oh it'll be in a recession by then so people that are saying the rates are going to come down significantly are expecting the economy to break you know that's not a good come down it's Bad come down yeah I mean you still don't want to come down though because we're the more inflation we have the more interest we have the higher the American government goes into debt and we're at 34 trillion it's already becoming a horrible horrible problem it's already is a horrible problem but the longer we're at these interest rates it if you it's better to just like drum pal said stay here for like eight months and then not have to worry about it then you can slowly decrease if you decrease too fast you're [ __ ] it's a problem sorry for my voice guys yeah I mean you g end up paying a lot more in the long run from a economic standpoint I get that um but uh I I think that that is the the side of the aisle or coin or whatever you want to say that uh PO is leaning towards as being much more restrictive for longer um and particularly the American economy hasn't shown any signs of cracking yet right you know G GDP is still coming in positive numbers you know jobs are still being created on a monthly basis so he is emboldened to be super aggressive and rates are not going to go down for a while that that's I have swung my perspective on this TLT for the win all right let us know what you guys think catch next one
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