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Michael Berry is not simply buying gambling-related stocks . It could be a bet on the regulation . He is a famous investor who recently bought stocks in Flutter and DraftKings, investing about 60% of the total trading volume in Flutter. His logic is that if prediction markets like Kalshi are subject to the same regulations as sports betting companies , licensed companies like FanDuel or DraftKings could regain a major competitive advantage .
The timing is also interesting, as the World Cup is expected to generate approximately $3 billion in betting in the United States, which is about three times the total amount of 2022 . However, if the prediction market maintains regulatory dominance , this surge could actually work to their advantage.
Therefore, the key is this. Is Berry buying gambling-related stocks , or is he buying time waiting for regulations to be implemented ? Jamal, what do you think ? It could be buying time while waiting for the regulations to be implemented. You can tell where his mindset lies by watching him buy stocks in time for these events.
I think so too. And Draft Kings has dropped significantly from its peak. This stock is under $30 and has upside potential. When looking at these kinds of stocks, I always examine implied volatility. It looks at the probability of reaching a certain level . If there is a possibility that call options will form at a specific price range , it is somewhat ambiguous to judge that both Flutter and DraftKings are currently in a slump , but I think it is important to look at the skew.
Taking Flutter and DraftKings as examples , Flutter traded at about $110 in August . If you look at the $100 or $120 strike price, Flutter shows a distinct upward skew. In the case of DraftKings, it traded at $26 in August. If you look at the $20 or $32 strike prices, they show a similar pattern . In the Draft Kings, the upside premium of equidistant out-of-price call options is twice as high .
Although volatility is not that high , the ratio of put option premiums to out-of-the-money call option premiums is still greater than 1. Therefore, it appears that the market is calculating risk by reflecting the upward trend . And I think this is also consistent with Burry's betting . Are you saying that Burry bought a call option with a specific expiration date?
I do not have the exact transaction history, but I will look it up later and examine it in detail. Anyway, he bought call options . Yes, that is correct. He essentially bet on the investment. Yes, that is correct. In light of these trends, Draft Kings believes that the current stock price is at a very low level compared to the past .
If we take a broader view, it is trading near its annual low, and it is only about 5 points away from that point . The premium is still pretty good, too. It's not an absurdly high price. Based on the 7-day expiration date, if you want short-term profits, you could try a strategy like a My Price Covered Call .
Or, if we move on to August, that is the time for earnings announcements . Hmm, let's go back to August . Look at the call option expiring on August 30 . There are as many as 49,000 outstanding contracts . Just by looking at this, you can tell that many people share the same thoughts as me . Yes, there are as many as 49,000 outstanding call options , and since the price is only $1, it is a way to invest cheaply .
Yes, I think this strategy is also good. To participate in such a trade, you can sell a put option with a strike price of $25 for $ 1.50 and buy a call option with a strike price of $30 for $0.50 . I really like this strategy. yes . I plan to try using this strategy for my first trade when the market opens in about an hour.
It is really interesting content, so I will keep watching. If possible, I will try to accurately determine the transactions he actually made. Also, Flutter feels less attractive to me because it is not as fluid as DraftKings . DraftKings has already traded 20,000 shares today, but Flutter has only traded 3,000 shares .
Furthermore, there is no weekly option expiration date, and I always consider that a warning sign . Well, that doesn't mean trading is impossible; it just means that not enough people are participating in trading to conduct weekly trading. That point is reflected in the wide bid-sell spread . Flutter's buy- sell spread in August was $2 , while Draft Kings' buy-sell spread in August was only $0.1.
So I'm just going to watch the Draft Kings and completely ignore Flutter. Anyway, I like Draft Kings because their price is cheaper. I think, although I am not 100% sure , that it is because Flutter is an ADR (American Depositary Receipt) and a foreign company . The headquarters is n't in the U.S., and while it might be in New York, I think it was originally in Dublin, Ireland.
So it seems there are no weekly transactions. It is because there is a lack of liquidity in the US market . On the other hand, it seems like SK Hynix could be a problem . I think the liquidity will be very high . yes . And I think regulations on prediction markets will be tightened in the future. I have worked in the finance sector for a long time and also in marketing, where I have experience writing ad copy and creating visuals.
You really have to pay attention to every single word . Because it is subject to regulation . The most absurd thing I saw online was an advertisement for Cal Shear, where Vince McMahon was throwing money around saying, "Invest in Cal Shear !" That is what it was saying . How can they speak so freely, yet cause problems in the financial industry with just one wrong word?
Yes, I think there will definitely be regulations . This is because there will be people in the financial and sports betting industries lobbying against the free operation of prediction markets . So I think it is only a matter of time before change happens . I think this deal is good. I think so too. I think you're right.
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