저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
스페이스X 실적 분석: 이연수익 2.8B$로 총 수익 증가 주장, 스타링크 ARPU 66→69$, AI(컴퓨팅 임대) 매출 7.6B$로 약 3배 성장. 1분기 가이던스 33~37B$, 연말 ARR 100B$ 목표. 자금조달 필요액 약 4200~4500억$ 전망. 테슬라-스페이스X 합병 가능성 높다고 봄. 개인적으로 주식 추가 매수 언급. 채널 내 유료 구독·스폰서 광고 다수 포함.
다듬은 글
Wow, this Elon Musk SpaceX earnings report is just crazy. Especially considering that we literally heard from Elon one of the conditions of the Tesla and SpaceX merger, which is essentially just a formal approval of responsibility, okay? Between us , when Elon says we're creating a special committee to review the merger, it's almost like he's saying, "Hey, I control all the votes ." "Um, we'll form a committee to review what stock compensation I should receive." Spoiler: he'll get what he wants.
Given what Elon is suggesting, I quote, that it would be a good idea to merge SpaceX and Tesla, which I agree with, it would make it much easier for them to raise funds, and they need to raise a lot of "sucking" capital, you know? I'll show you this " sucking" and the benefits they get from it , okay?
They are already benefiting from this process and want more because it is already delivering results. In any case, Elon says he thinks a merger would be a good idea, and of course it would depend on overcoming the high threshold of 50% of Tesla shareholder votes, which is actually not that high a barrier considering how many people voted for Elon's trillion-dollar stock-based compensation plan.
I suspect that a merger, especially with some premium for Tesla shares, will be welcomed, approved and signed off on, understood? Everyone wants a small premium on their Tesla shares, which means SpaceX shareholders will likely pay some premium for those Tesla shares that are already selling at a premium.
But while Tesla may be trading at a PEG of around five, which is probably double its true value, and it will likely trade for SpaceX at a PEG of around six, SpaceX itself only trades at a PEG of one. It's actually quite inexpensive now. So , we're going to go through some numbers now. I want to point out, and this is completely free, this is not an advertisement, but I want to emphasize that I do indeed send out a daily e- digest.
I just went into mail search , typed in " SpaceX daily digest," and it came up. We sent out an email where I talked about a few different videos. This is kind of an example of a digest that we do, or a weekly recap, or a conversation about real estate, or price targets, or whatever. So, on October 9th, which is just about 11 days ago, I sent out this email, which you can get for free , where I said, "SpaceX, I think the bottom line is about 132, and I'm bullish on SpaceX." And, as you know, we bought these stocks.
We started buying them around September 11th. We made a video about this . But if you missed those videos and thought, "Oh, I wish I had gotten that letter." It's completely free. I'm not selling you anything here. Just go to meetkevin.com/digest and you're in. meetkevin.com/digest, enter your email, mark the email as not spam, confirm, pass the captcha, and boom, you're subscribed.
OK? So, without further ado, let's get to the video. Good. So, a merger, in my opinion, is obviously very likely. We suspect this, but I want to talk about the numbers. Many people have already discussed the main indicators. We'll look at them in a moment . But I want to draw attention to something that few people talk about, namely these deferred incomes.
My God . Somehow, SpaceX received $2.8 billion in deferred revenue . This means that part of the revenue that they beat expectations on is effectively an advance: "Hey guys, here's a big payment for you, we really want to use your services in the future. Just make a note somewhere that you still owe us for these services." Of course, to be fair , they won't show up on the income statement, but I want to show you the difference.
So, the income statement shows a figure of about $14.5 billion , which is just fantastic. SpaceX's average revenue per Starlink user actually went from $66 to $69 , which, you know, is perfect for Elon. This is actually surprising, as they advertised Starlink a lot, lowered prices, and then raised them a bit again after the IPO.
I think they wanted to "pump up " the number of users before the IPO , and then raised the prices a little again. I think that's why we're seeing a slight increase in ARPU for SpaceX. But, of course, the biggest and most interesting part is the revenue from superintelligence, which is $7.6 billion .
This is actually three times more. Part of this will be a return on investment capital, as they have apparently doubled their capital investment in fixed assets. So it's worth expecting that some of this will start to generate rental and investment income. These $7.5 billion represent approximately a 190% increase in actual revenues.
That's almost three times as much, which is a phenomenal measure of the actual income from superintelligence. I want to be extremely clear here, because I may not have been very clear earlier. I want to be completely frank about this. This does not include deferred income. So, deferred income goes on top of that.
So I want to make this note here. They actually tripled their real income from chip rentals. And on top of that, they received another $2.8 billion on top of what they had last quarter. Look, last quarter, deferred revenue was $2.1 billion. This is exactly this number—2.1 billion dollars. That's exactly what their deferred income was at the time of the last report.
Now that number is 4.9, which is a really big increase. This effectively means that the company is telling you, “ Look, under GAAP standards, we made $7.5 billion in revenue from superintelligence. But we also received checks that have already been banked, another 37%, and we have n't even turned on the GPU yet." So when Elon Musk says, "Hey, yeah, we're literally being bombarded with requests, hyperscalers are hunting for that computing power," it's confirmed.
They literally write him checks. This is truly impressive. So, as a result, their first-quarter forecast is higher than expected—between $33 billion and $37 billion . This was significantly higher than analysts' estimates. They confirmed their annual pace of $100 billion by December, but the CFO, Mr.
Johnson, has already effectively said it is guaranteed. So it didn't come as a big surprise. The more important prediction is that they now believe that by the end of the year, instead of 2 GW, they will be able to reach 2.5–3 GW. And by the end of next year, they're still confident they can hit 10.
In fact, Elon Musk is now saying he's very confident about hitting 10. And that, they think, could actually take them from $100 billion in annual revenue (ARR) to somewhere between $100 billion and a trillion. Well, it's Elon's style to round numbers, but yes, if they reach $100 billion by the end of the year, then by the end of next year the figure will be somewhere in between those values, which is quite impressive, because their computing power will have increased by a factor of 4.
Of course, the number of space launches will not increase by 4 times—they are growing by only 6%, as is their revenue from Starlink, which is also growing. I mean, let's be honest, Starlink is evolving. It just doesn't grow as rapidly as computing power. Constant growth in computing power requires a lot of money.
This segment is growing by 22.3%. Oh, a little side note: Kalshi allows you to bet on the probability of a SpaceX merger. So if you think it's unrealistic, you can bet against it on Kalshi. They are signing up and you can get a free $25 after signing up for Kalshi and making your first transaction. They are a sponsor of reinvest.
But I personally think this merger will happen. Between us, I think this merger will still happen. And to be honest , I was a bit optimistic about SpaceX. I didn't sell any shares, and, you know, we even bought some more. So, this is not financial advice, but we were very inspired around 9/11. We documented it all.
And this is 69% more than last year. Looking at the previous quarter, due to the unevenness of income, this looks like a doubling. But compared to last year, it's only 6%. So, this is a 6% increase compared to last year. But you can see that the connection grew by 22% per quarter and by 69% per year.
This is, well, pretty good. This is not a threefold increase, but it is still a very promising category. Keep in mind that they will still have to pay $8 billion for the 800 MHz bands they promised to buy back. This will ensure signal penetration through walls for direct connection service to mobile phones.
And their Starlink aviation division has finally started to grow. I think with 3,800 aircraft they are just starting their journey. By the way, I subscribed to Starlink for my plane back in, I think, late 2022. I flew that plane for 3 years, they told me that Starlink was coming, I just had to wait a little longer, it lasted 2 years, then I canceled the order, sold the plane for more than I bought it, got my deposit back, invested in Reinvest, and now it looks like they are finally ramping up Starlink orders for these planes.
So, you know, I'm a big fan. I always wanted this. I literally went from buying a plane, training to become a pilot, promising to install Starlink, to selling the plane and getting a refund for Starlink before it was even available, even though I was told it would be available from day one. It's just " Elon's timeframe," you know?
I'm not blaming, I'm just saying that I think there's such a crazy demand for it that I'm not really surprised. So I'm not angry. I look at it this way: yes, it does n't surprise me. This...this is so good. There is such huge demand for Starlink. Well, seriously, dude. This is such a great direction for growth.
And now, the balance sheet. Okay , we need to talk about this . I continue to argue that they will have to raise about $450, uh, $420 billion. Right now, in fact, even after spending $35 billion in negative free cash flow this quarter, they still have $89 billion in cash and securities. Of course, to be fair , they have bills to pay.
They need to pay about 22 billion. So we actually only have about $67 billion in free cash, but I think they're going to need somewhere around $500 billion , especially after the Louisiana Purchase. And that actually means that if they need 500 minus 67, they still have to raise 433 billion. On this call, they actually told us, which I think is helpful, that they plan to raise more debt, which means less share dilution, which makes sense, because how can you dilute the share even more after the Tesla merger, right?
Now, one more thing : we will talk a lot about this action , portfolio positioning, and everything else o, join us at Reinvest1. Remember, you get everything in the terminal: gentic AI, and a business plan for AI, which is just incredibly cool because it will help your business grow. Join us, pay once and get lifetime access to everything on reinvest1.com.
But let's focus on other notes now. So, obviously, we've been through a lot of hardship. They will use it. The merger is truly fascinating. Louisiana Purchase. What you should know about the Louisiana Purchase: They expect the first launch in 2029. They believe that in 2027 they will be able to fully capture one of their Starships, which would be simply incredible.
But the Louisiana Purchase would require a lot of money. Remember, we will have five launch complexes and maybe 10 sites scattered around. This will be madness. Another detail: they included about a billion dollars in, well, let's say, other income. Part of this is Terra Free funds, part is tax breaks.
So, you have a bunch of little bonuses on the bottom line of your income statement. So some of this is a bit exaggerated. This will normalize in the coming quarters. But, in simple terms : their free cash flow for the last, I think, nine months—that's what they reported— is minus $35 billion, and they made $4.4 billion, which is still quite interesting.
Yes, that's minus $35 billion in free cash flow in nine months. Now let's look at the net profit—4.4 billion . And they really got out of that mess. Although, again , there is this billion dollars of " others" that should be discarded. Still, this is the first profitable public quarter. I mean, I take my hat off to the company, in large part because of this explosive growth in assets.
You can see it here: fixed assets— $89 billion versus $42 billion in December. So , in 9 months they more than doubled their assets. So that's pretty exciting. Yes, the difficulties will continue, and that's very good for Nvidia. And, frankly, for all technology stocks. But Nvidia is SpaceX's exclusive partner for space.
And you know, of course, this applies to some other data centers as well. Elon is fascinated by Jensen . So go ahead, boys and girls. This is quite fascinating. And remember, go to meetkevin.com/digest to sign up for the free newsletter . And of course, join me at reinvest1.com. Thank you very much . See you next time. See you late.
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