저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 급등은 달러 신뢰 하락과 국채 가격 하락(금리 상승)의 선행 신호이며, 중앙은행의 금 매입과 달러 기축통화 지위 약화가 진행 중이라고 주장. 은행 스트레스테스트는 스태그플레이션을 반영하지 않아 부실하다고 비판. 금은 4,000달러 지지선, 은은 50달러 돌파 후 하방 지지 전환 전망. 미국 주식은 장기 약세, 해외 증시 강세 지속 전망. 개인은 금 ETF를 매도했고 기관 비중은 아직 낮아 재배분 여력이 크다는 주장.
다듬은 글
Just wait. Gold is the first shoe to drop. Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down. That bonds are going to go down. If you wait for that, if you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you know, you're too late.
You know, you're too late to diffuse the crisis, but you're also too late uh to prepare for it financially. That's why I'm, you know, I keep, you know, reiterating with my clients, look, look, you got to buy gold, you got to buy silver, you know, hey, you got to dip now to 4,100 or, you know, I think 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold.
So 4,000 is kind of the support. Doesn't mean we can't go below it, but I think any dip below 4,000 will be shortlived. Silver got up to 54 and change, so it took out the the 50 double top. We're back below 50 now. I mean, silver is a lot more volatile. you. The rally in gold is driven more by panic than by price.
Economist Peter Schiff, the founder of Europacific Asset Management, believes that we are in the early stages of a worldwide decline in trust in the US currency. The central banks of the world are getting ready for a future in which American debt is no longer the center of the financial system. Investors are quietly realizing that the Fed cannot combat inflation and fund Washington's expenditures at the same time as deficits skyrocket and interest expenses eat up the budget.
Shift cautions that every significant currency crisis starts out slowly before erupting all at once. Gold is rising because people are becoming more realistic, not because of speculation. The dollar will suffer when the markets eventually demand honesty because the US economy is based on borrowed time and borrowed money.
Don't forget to like, subscribe, and ring the bell for the latest analysis on gold and silver markets. The bottom line is here is Peter, are you concerned about another regional banking crisis right now, or is this just a case of a few banks mismanaging their loan books? Well, I'm more concerned uh about a US dollar and sovereign debt crisis because I think that's going to be the consequence of the Fed bailing out all these banks and preventing that.
You know, the Fed does these stress tests every year. And I always point out that the stress tests are are all BS because they don't stress test for stagflation. They they don't they don't have any scenario in which they test how a bank would perform with stagflation. So if we had a recession with rising inflation and rising interest rates, they don't test any banks for that.
And I think that's because they know they would all fail. And so they don't even want to run a test if they already know uh that no one's going to pass. Uh but that is the environment that we're in. And it's going to get a lot worse. And I think the only way that we're not going to see widespread failure in the banking system is if we have massive money printing.
Uh and so that's going to ultimately cause a dollar and sovereign debt crisis. And again, that is what gold is telling you. Gold is the monetary canary in the coal mine. Gold is shooting up now for a reason. Uh and uh you know, to me, it's very much like the collapse of subprime in 2007 because I had been forecasting subprime to collapse for years before it did.
But I I forecast that as part of a broader banking crisis, financial crisis that I knew would follow the collapse of uh the subprime market which would ultimately take down the mortgage market and the banking system and Fetty and Fanny and and I I I've been talking about that and warning about that.
I wrote about it. But when the subprime uh market blew up in '07, the mainstream dismissed it as an isolated event. Even the Federal Reserve said, "Don't worry, it's contained." And I was out there saying, "No, it's not. It's it's the tip of this huge iceberg. Just wait." And of course, we had the crisis the following year in 2008.
Well, to me, I've been I've been warning about a big move up in the price of gold uh as, you know, a for foreshadowing a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. And now it's happening. And just like the mainstream dismissed the warning from subprime, they're dismissing the warning from gold. But I think gold is just indicating that a much bigger crisis is coming.
And I've even heard people say that we don't have to worry about the price of gold because the dollar is not falling because the bond market isn't falling. And so therefore, gold's rise is not reflective of a loss of confidence in the dollar or the bond market. And my response to that is just wait. Gold is the first shoe to drop.
Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down. If you wait for that, if you wait for the move in gold to also be reflected in a big down move in the dollar and a down move in the bond market, well, you you know, you're too late. You know, you're too late to diffuse the crisis, but you're also too late uh to prepare for it financially.
That's why I'm, you know, I keep, you know, reiterating with my clients, look, look, you got to buy gold, you got to buy silver, you know, hey, you got to dip now to 4,100 or, you know, I think 4,000 is really the new 3,000 for gold. So 4,000 is kind of the support. Doesn't mean we can't go below it, but I think any dip below 4,000 will be shortlived.
Silver got up to 54 and change, so it took out the the 50 double top. We're back below 50 now. I mean, silver is a lot more volatile. You don't have the central bank buying to stabilize it like you do in gold. But look, I think silver has clearly broken out. It's proven that 50 isn't a ceiling anymore.
Soon it's going to be the floor. People should be buying silver. I think it's very cheap. Uh and people should be getting out of US assets. I think the US stock market, which has been really in a in a massive bare market for, you know, 25 years. I think that bare market is going to accelerate. But uh finally, after many many years, foreign markets are smoking US markets.
I think the S&P is up maybe 13 14% this year. I've got a foreign dividend payer fund that's up almost 50% this year. This isn't my gold fund. This is just my defensive dividend paying stock fund. But so foreign markets are finally way outperforming the US. And I think that trend is going to continue.
It's not just central bankers who are getting out of dollars into gold. It's foreign investors who are going to be getting out of US investments and reinvesting domestically. that's going to be followed by Americans diversifying internationally. Gold is rising as a reflection of a loss of confidence in the dollar because I think the main reason that gold is being accumulated is because central banks have lost confidence in the dollar and in the you know the the fiscal responsibility of the US government or any the credibility of the Federal Reserve.
So you're seeing it first in gold. I think you'll next see it in the dollar and then I think you'll see it after that in the Treasury market where you'll start to see a big drop in bond prices and a rise in long-term yields despite the fact that the Fed is going to be reducing short-term rates. And I think that is going to be the catalyst for a return to quantitative easing because I think the Fed is going to try to uh lower long-term interest rates through its open market operations where it needs to print money to buy the bonds that the rest of the world is is selling.
And and so that I think will be another catalyst to drive gold to even higher levels because that's just massive inflation. And you know the last couple of times we tried a QE uh inflation at least the way the government purports to measure it was below 2%. So the government was able to justify QE by saying look you know inflation is below target and so we could do this uh because the goal is to get inflation higher to reach our target and so you know we're going to accomplish that with QE but if inflation is already well above 2% what is the excuse for creating more inflation?
How do you justify QE when inflation is four or five percent the way the government measures it? The US dollar is being significantly replaced by gold in the global financial system. A historic shift in the global monetary order is beginning as central banks all over the world are quickly building up their gold reserves.
The dollar's position as the world's reserve currency permitted the US to spend far more than it could afford for decades. However, this privilege is currently diminishing. Instead of relying on US budgetary restraint, nations like China are shifting toward a more stable goldbacked reserve mechanism that is based on actual tangible wealth.
What is driving current gold rally is what makes it different from previous ones. This has nothing to do with retail hype or short-term speculation while the actual accumulation takes place covertly within central banks. Institutional investors continue to exercise caution. Due to new trade agreements, reserve diversification, and the gradual decline of the dollar in international settlements, the dollar's credibility crisis is no longer a remote threat.
The rise of gold is more than just a commerce. It serves as the real-time basis for the upcoming monetary system. . Now, let's get back and hear his following words. China is buying to have gold as a reserve to replace the dollar. And I think that's what a lot of other central banks are doing. They're buying gold to restore gold as you know the monetary backing of their of their currency.
And this I think is a major uh you know transformation in the global monetary system. I think it's on the order of or maybe bigger than what happened in the 1970s when we went off the gold standard. And so the world went from having the US dollar backed by gold as the reserve to just having a fiat currency as the reserve.
That was a significant shift in the monetary order. But now it's not the US going off the gold standard. It's the the world going off the dollar standard and returning to the gold standard. And I think that's probably even more significant certainly for the United States uh because we're about to have the rug pulled out from under us.
And you know, we've been living off of the uh dollar's reserve status. We've used it as a crutch to live beyond our means. Uh we've enjoyed uh lower consumer prices and lower interest rates and higher asset prices as a result of this privilege that I think we are in the process of of losing. So when you point to these other moves up in gold and silver, I think they were largely driven at the peaks by speculators, you know, by retail investors who were, you know, jumping on the bandwagon and pushing the markets to, you know, kind of extreme points and then they would go down.
I haven't I don't think we've even seen that yet. I think that retail investors have barely participated. In fact, if you look back at the flows from all of last year and most of this year, retail investors were selling gold ETFs. They were selling gold stock ETFs. So, they sold into the rally. They they weren't buying.
Uh, in fact, if you talk to a lot of the um, you know, the the smaller coin shops around the country, and I've seen interviews, most of the people that came in over the last few months were people that were selling their gold. They were like bringing in their jewelry to melt it down and and get some cash.
It wasn't a frenzy of people looking to buy gold. Uh and the institutions, you know, are barely involved. Uh the pension funds, the endowments, hedge funds, I mean, they barely have any position in gold. It wasn't until just recently that you saw, you know, more talk from, you know, Ray Dallio or well, although Jeff Gunlock has been talking gold for a while, but a few other people.
Morgan Stanley came out in the last month. I think one of their analysts said that we should tweak the 6040 portfolio to be 60 2020 where you split your bonds in half and you buy gold. Uh but I doubt they've had any opportunity to make to make the switch. I mean they've just started to recognize uh gold's value after denying it for decades.
you know, I've been in the investment business for, you know, over 35 years. And I was pretty much a lone voice, you know, as a stock broker telling my clients that they should have an allocation to gold in their portfolio. And, you know, when I went on financial Yeah. when I went on major financial networks to talk about it, they generally laughed at me or they accused me of fear-mongering or just trying to sell gold.
You know, when I mean they, you know, they didn't accuse a stock broker of recommending a stock because he's just trying to sell stocks. And of course, I was both, right? I was in, you know, stock broker, but I also thought that people should have gold as part of their portfolios. But that was like, you know, sacriiggious.
But now people are starting to say, "Hey, wait a minute. You know, given the fact that gold has outperformed stocks over the last 25 years, if you go back to 1999 when the Dow peaked at 45 ounces of gold, today it's worth, you know, it was 11. I didn't do the math today, but it was, you know, just recently down to 11.
That was a 70% decline in the price of the Dow Jones measured in real money, measured in gold. and and given the fact that just holding gold, you know, in a shoe box beat the Dow, and I'm not talking about just the price, it actually beat the return because the dividend yield has been pretty low over these, you know, these uh years.
You got you actually did better just holding holding a gold coin and and so I guess, you know, given that I think Wall Street finally recognizes that yes, gold has a place in your portfolio. And if that's the case, well, this rally has a long way to go because that means a lot of investors have a lot of gold they need to buy.
Meanwhile, the central banks are are are getting started. I don't think they're nearly complete in their transformation of their reserves. Uh they still have a lot of dollars to get rid of and a lot of gold to buy. According to Peter Schiff, a significant monetary revolution is about to commence, one that may equal or perhaps exceed the demise of the gold standard in the 70s.
He argues that in order to construct a solid foundation for their currencies, nations like China and many other central banks are purchasing gold rather than stockpiling US dollars. According to Schiff, this signifies the world's transition from a dollarbacked world to a goldbacked world. The United States has benefited from the dollar's reserve currency status for many years, including reduced consumer prices, easier borrowing, and higher asset values.
He notes that in contrast to earlier gold rallies fueled by retail speculation, institutional and retail involvement is still quite low this time. While central banks and a few progressive funds are progressively amassing gold ETFs, the majority of ordinary investors have been selling them rather than purchasing them.
Thus, the actual migration hasn't yet started. Schiff contends that a significant reallocation is imminent as more institutions acknowledge gold's long-term superiority, having outperformed the Dow over the last 25 years, even after dividends. He claims that central banks are only beginning to make the shift from holding far too many dollars and not enough gold.
The US fiscal picture is unsustainable. Shift cautions. The Federal Reserve is under pressure to lower interest rates despite rising prices because the government can no longer afford interest rates that reflect inflation. This policy trap informs foreign creditors that owning Treasury bonds ensures that losses will be repaid in dollars, which are becoming less valuable annually.
Naturally, governments will decide to hold gold rather than depreciating paper promises when confidence declines. .
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