저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 부채 과잉·자산가격 거품·지정학 리스크로 인해 금융시장 변동성이 커지고 큰 위기가 올 수 있다고 주장한다. 금·은 등 귀금속은 금융자산 대비 비중이 작아(전 세계 자산의 약 1%) 보유 필요성이 크다고 본다. 아이반호 마인스 지분 보유를 언급하며 구리 가격 대비 저평가라고 평가한다. 미국 내 금 보관에 정부 압류 위험을 경고하고 해외 분산을 권한다. 자산 다변화(부동산·주식·귀금속·원자재, 지역 분산)를 조언한다.
다듬은 글
I am in the USA. If all my money is in gold in the US, and suddenly Mr. Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, maybe it would be a good idea to take the gold from the citizens and put it in our vaults." Well, then you might feel bad. I don't think they will. But I think they will take the gold and pay for it.
But they will pay in dollars, which will then depreciate. So under these conditions, you want to keep some of your assets in other countries, not in the US. Or wherever you are, if you are in Zimbabwe, you want to keep some money outside of Zimbabwe. And if you're in Canada, you want to keep some money outside of Canada.
As record debt, inflated asset prices, geopolitical tensions and ongoing inflation continue to pose challenges for investors around the world, global financial markets are about to enter a period of increasing volatility. Prominent contrarian investor Mark Faber warns that the current climate could become more dangerous.
While many investors are still heavily committed to stocks and other financial assets, Mark Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom and Bust Report, has long argued that rather than assuming asset values will rise forever, investors should prepare for significant changes in international markets. He believes that weaknesses caused by years of free money and excessive valuations could eventually lead to a significant correction in financial markets.
He believes that physical assets are fundamentally different from financial claims, which depend on the stability of banks, markets and governments, even though precious metals can experience significant corrections along the way. more information . A further fall in gold and silver is, of course, a possibility .
But we must understand that although gold, silver, and platinum have grown significantly relative to financial assets , as well as the size of the stock and global bond markets , the share of precious metals in asset allocation is not very large. In fact, only about 1% of assets worldwide are in precious metals, and within the S&P 500 index, mining companies account for less than 1% of market capitalization.
Now , I admit, of course, that the market capitalization of the stock market is probably greatly inflated. Do you understand? She is very deflated. But despite this, during the deflation of financial assets, the reduction in the size of the stock market, and the capitalization of bonds as a share of the global economy, I assume that gold and mining stocks will fall less than investor favorites such as SpaceX, Tesla, Nvidia, or MicroTechnology.
So as an investor, I still believe that people should have a portion of precious metals in their assets. And there must be a lot more of them than there are now, because when you talk to people and ask them what they invest in, of course they say, "Yes, we have gold." But how much, compared to the real estate they own, compared to the share of shares in semiconductor companies, etc.?
It's probably very small. In my opinion, in this world that increasingly looks hopeless , with wars and moving towards a great crisis in the future. In such conditions, I think people should think: "How can I lose as little money as possible?" » And precious metals are probably a tool that allows you to lose less money.
Well, some precious metals stocks have fallen significantly in price. I mean, I'm still involved and a major shareholder in Ivanhoe Mines. Ivanhoe Mines shares fell significantly. And compared to the historic high in copper prices we are seeing now, the stock is undervalued and offers a good entry point, in my opinion.
But I'm a little worried about everything related to paper assets. Shares are certificates, they are paper . I prefer philosophically, and also in emergencies, physical precious metals . And then the question arises: where should I store these precious metals? I would n't keep them in the United States, certainly not in the US where the president can appropriate them, because it's likely that the Trump family will continue to steal people's property.
I think there will be a major financial crisis in my lifetime, and it seems like it has already begun. But crises develop imperceptibly to the eye. Remember 2007? People didn't realize the seriousness of the credit problems until 2008. And then it happened in late 2008 and early 2009. But then it happened with all its cruelty.
That is, it was a devastating crisis, a real financial crisis. And, honestly, things could have been much worse if they hadn't flooded the entire system with money. The problem is that they pumped money into the system and saved it, but then didn't reduce liquidity enough to cool this party down a bit.
Do you understand? In 2009, if you recall, the mood was very depressed. And I mean, people thought the world was coming to an end. And then things started to improve. And at the end of 2008, they launched quantitative easing. And then the question arose: well, when will they stop? My immediate thought was: once a central bank starts monetary easing, it can't be stopped.
But in a democratic society, where people are elected because of good sentiments, etc., this will not happen. And now we have this quantitative easing and monetary policy easing that is ongoing. And, frankly , it pushed the S&P up . But, as I said, it also created unwanted side effects. To stabilize the economy and financial markets after the crisis, governments and central banks intervened with significant stimulus.
However, financial support continued for years, instead of allowing the system to fully reboot. As a result, markets began to rely increasingly on cheap interest rates and easy money . As a result, the financial system accumulated additional threats, and the stock and bond markets reached extremely high values.
However, during a severe crisis, investors who hold money through financial institutions and paper assets may be exposed to additional risks, such as counterparty and liquidity problems. Even in the mining industry, there is a divide. Even when a base commodity like copper is trading near record prices, companies like Ivanhoe Mines can still feel the pressure.
This demonstrates that the price of a financial asset does not always reflect the value of the underlying physical resource think because we don't know what the world will look like in 5 years, and there are many possibilities, because Mr. Trump keeps changing his mind, he's very impulsive and not exactly a deep thinker.
But I would advise people to diversify, I would advise diversifying across different asset classes: into real estate, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and different market sectors. But I also advocate for geographic diversification, because, let's say, I'm in the US. If all my money is in gold in the US, and suddenly Mr.
Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, maybe it would be a good idea to take the gold from the citizens and put it in our vaults." Uh, then you might be in trouble. I do n't think they will . I...but I think they'll take the gold and pay for it. But they will pay in dollars, which will then depreciate.
So under these conditions, you want to keep some of your assets in other countries, not in the US. Or wherever you are, if you are in Zimbabwe, you want to keep some of the money outside of Zimbabwe. And you, if you're in Canada, you want to keep some of your money outside of Canada. And don't think you're keeping anything outside the country.
If you have a trust account , and all the securities are, say, on State Street in Boston, or in New York, at Manufacturers Hanover, Morgan JP Morgan , you have to have the account physically or the precious metals physically in Russia, or in China, or in Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, uh, London , wherever.
So, people have to prepare themselves. I'm telling you, people need to prepare for what I mean is truly a crisis of a lifetime that will be devastating for asset owners. Destructive. People who have nothing. They won't lose very much, but they will also suffer because once asset owners lose them, their consumption will decrease, and there will be less economic activity.
Although its full implications are not yet apparent, Marc Faber warns that a significant financial catastrophe may have already begun. Looking back on 2008, he says that until the crisis suddenly exploded with devastating force, many investors did not realize how serious the credit problems were. While central banks prevented a bigger crash by pumping large amounts of money into the financial system, Faber argues that they never did enough to calm the markets afterward.
Faber advises investors to prepare by diversifying their assets broadly, not just across stocks, real estate, commodities and precious metals, but also across many industries and countries, as the future is still unpredictable. He argues that during a crisis, owning assets in one country exposes people to significant political and financial risks.
If assets are held or managed within the same financial system, even those held through foreign corporations may not provide complete security. Because of this, he believes investors should carefully consider the physical location of their wealth and how easily it would be accessible in the event of a significant financial crisis.
Ultimately, Faber warns that a major crisis could lead to huge losses for asset owners and harm the economy as a whole, as declining wealth reduces consumer spending and economic activity. .
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