저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
정부 부채·재정적자와 지속적 통화 발행으로 금융시스템이 위험한 국면에 들어섰고, 통화 발행 덕에 주식과 금은 강세를 보일 것으로 전망. 그러나 정부가 금 소유를 불법화하거나 헐값에 회수할 위험이 있어 자산 분산(종류·지역)을 강조. 정부 지출 비중을 줄이기 어려워 결국 대형 위기로 시스템이 리셋될 가능성 제기. AI 설비투자 버블이 꺼지면 사실상 불황(depression)이 올 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
That's why I think the stock market is going up and gold is relatively strong. Because printing money will be favorable for these assets. But in the case of gold, one problem I foresee is that governments could declare that owning gold is illegal. That you have to surrender your gold. They will pay you a certain amount of money, let's say today they might say, "Okay, we'll buy back all the gold for 4,400 or 4,500." And they can borrow, they can print that money to buy it back from you.
Do you understand? It's not that they suffer from it . They can do it. And then they can revalue gold to 45,000, 100,000, or a million. And there are many things the government can do. They can also take your Bitcoins. Or they can take your house. I mean, if they could lock you up during COVID for no reason, for no reason at all.
Growing public debt, huge budget deficits, and constant money printing are bringing the global financial system to a risky juncture . As governments deal with mounting debt problems, investors are beginning to wonder how much value fiat money can retain over time. And will private wealth one day be threatened?
The editor of "The Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report" and Swiss contrarian investor Marc Faber has long warned that governments under extreme financial pressure may eventually take radical measures to salvage their balance sheets. He believes that in the event of a significant crisis, private wealth, including gold, real estate and other assets outside the regular banking system, could fall under strict regulation.
However, he cautions that in the face of a global financial crisis, investors should not expect any individual asset or country to be completely protected. Diversification across different assets and jurisdictions may become more important as debt continues to rise and confidence in fiat currencies is under pressure.
Be sure to like, subscribe, and click the notification bell to learn more . If I look at Western governments, and I'm not just singling out the US, others are in a similar situation. The solution, the long-term solution to the problems we currently face in terms of economic growth and stagnant living standards in the West, can be achieved by significantly reducing government.
They, the government, make up 50% of the economy. We could reduce this to 25%. But the voters, the electorate, won't like it, because people, they look at the subsidies they get, and they don't want to pay more taxes, but they want to get more benefits and so on . How can you come to pensioners and tell them that from now on your pension is 30% less than before ?
How, how are you going to win an election with such views? Therefore, I believe that the only way to fix the system is not through voluntary government action, but a crisis that will essentially destroy the system and eliminate the debts that exist within it. And this transition is like a complex surgery that is performed on the body after an accident or something like that.
Yes, that's right . We need such an " accident" to clear the system. Otherwise, it will not be purified. And the situation will only get worse, since the government's response to any problem is not to cut spending, but to increase it. And in strengthening its influence on the system. In the end, you get a planned economy, like during communism, where even your property can be expropriated, that is, taken away from you .
This can happen in many ways. For example, you could raise housing taxes so much that no one can afford to maintain their own home. Do you understand? Then you will be forced to move into public housing, which is subsidized by the government. And this will lower your standard of living because such buildings are usually poorly maintained and eventually fall into disrepair.
In any case, we can move away from the market economy, from the capitalist system, towards a socialist model, communism, or even a fascist system. Trump, if you look at his actions and business behavior, is essentially a prime example of a fascist. Yes. You know, Mussolini-style. He wants to influence business, and the government distributes resources because it controls 50% of the economy.
They have enormous power to distribute tax revenues in favor of one company or another , or to those people who make contributions. The first reaction of governments will be to print money. This is why I believe the stock market is rising and gold remains quite strong, because printing money will be beneficial for these assets.
But in the case of gold, I foresee one problem: governments could declare that owning gold is illegal. That you have to surrender your gold. They will pay you a certain amount, let's say today they can say: "Okay, we will buy all the gold for 4400–4500." And they can borrow or print that money to buy it back from you.
Do you understand? This is not something they will suffer from. They can do it. And then they can revalue gold to 45,000, 100,000, or a million. There are many things the government can do. They can also take your bitcoins or your house. I mean, if they could lock you up during COVID for no reason, just no reason.
You should have some money in stocks, some in real estate, some in precious metals, some in books, some in paintings, and then... And you need to have small denominations. And secondly, this is very important, geographical diversification of your assets. Some assets may be in the US, and you want to own them in Europe, or in Russia, or in China, or in Australia.
Maybe not everyone will survive, but some might. Bond " vigilantes" have returned to some extent. But you see, in a money printing environment, you can influence bond pricing in the sense that if you put money into the system, it goes through banks to various financial institutions, including pension funds, insurance companies, and so on.
And their laws say that they have to buy or have a certain composition or allocation of assets, say, 30% in bonds and 30% in stocks or whatever. But the fact that they are actually forced to buy bonds supports the market. And when you have bonds, let's say we're looking at a 10- year bond or a 30-year bond.
A 10-year bond, say, at 5%, for example. Right now it's around 4.7%, but if the government, through the central bank, lowers the Fed rate to 3% or 2%, then as a bond buyer I have an alternative— cash. I then get 2% interest or take a risk and buy 10- year Treasury bonds at 4.7%. Do you understand? Through the central bank, governments can influence the bond market, although not completely.
In many Western countries, public administration currently accounts for nearly 50% of economic output , which Faber says significantly burdens the private sector and reduces overall productivity. He argues that it would be politically very difficult to reduce this share closer to 25%, as voters often oppose tax increases or pension cuts while demanding continued government benefits and subsidies.
Because of this, Faber believes that normal political processes are unlikely to lead to significant budget reform. Instead, he warns that a significant economic catastrophe, strong enough to destroy unsustainable debts and expose long-standing financial problems, could eventually force the system to reboot.
In addition, he warns that rising property taxes could make it harder for average families to buy a home, forcing more people to live in social housing. about new videos. We really appreciate your support. If you take the central bank in the United States right now and lower the Fed rate to 1%, then I, as an investor, will say to myself, "Okay, can I invest my $10 million at 1% or, say, at 4.7%?" Then I have an incentive to buy bonds.
Yes, long-term bonds. But, but I can, I can talk, I can manipulate the consumer price index numbers. I can tell people that CPI inflation is 3%. And other economists estimate that it is , say, from 7 to 12% per year. Do you understand? For example, the dot-com bubble was important, but it didn't have much of an impact on the global economy.
It did some damage when it burst. But we need to look at capital expenditure, investment in the object of speculation as a percentage of the global economy. And today, investments in AI and related areas can be compared to investments in railways in the 19th century, but on a different scale . And I don't want to get into a discussion about what exactly is different.
But on a grand scale, it is very important. This is the most important capital spending boom in the world since the construction of railways and canals in the 19th century. And when this bubble bursts, capital spending will obviously decline. And the financial market will shrink. In other words, value estimates will decline.
And both the reduction in capital spending and the financial market downturn will cause, in my opinion, essentially a depression. Ken, that's a very valid point, but I think because you... I'm talking about depression in particular , because the world has never been more credit-driven than it is now.
In other words, if you look at the last 200 years of world economic development, never before has the world had so much debt as a percentage of GDP than it does now. I would also note that the dot-com bubble occurred when commodity prices were low. And when housing was in decline , the real estate market was depressed in terms of volume, in terms of sales, but not in terms of prices.
Prices in most American cities are much higher than they were during the previous peak in 2007. And from this level we fell. Secondly, we have an example that printing money does not always help. Take a look at commercial real estate in the US. Many commercial properties have lost 70-80% of their value.
Yes. And this can happen with residential real estate . So, if households, the bulk of people's money, middle and lower classes, is concentrated in their homes. They don't own large stock portfolios. Rich people, like you and me , own stock portfolios. But ordinary people around the world do not own stock portfolios.
So their well-being is tied to the real estate market. And when the real estate market falls, the stock market falls, and there is a reduction in capital spending in the field of AI investments , then a global crisis occurs. Besides, we have the pleasure of watching leaders. In addition, we have the pleasure of watching leaders who believe they can solve problems with wars.
Yes. I have to say, it's just a circus. It would be hard to imagine anyone going to war with Iran for virtually no reason. For no reason. According to Mark Faber , there may be signs in the bond market that investors are increasingly concerned about inflation and government debt. He explains that by lowering interest rates and printing more money, central banks can influence bond prices.
Investors, pension funds, insurance companies and other organizations are more willing to buy government bonds when cash yields extremely low returns because their yields are higher. Thus, even if fundamental debt problems remain, governments and central banks can significantly support the bond market.
However, Faber cautions that this does not mean that governments have complete control over the financial system. Investors may eventually demand higher interest rates to compensate for the loss of purchasing power if inflation is higher than official figures. As a result, it could become much more expensive for governments to finance their huge debts.
Faber argues that the biggest problem is the enormous amount of debt that already exists in the global economy. He notes that the world has never had such high debt relative to economic productivity. This increases the vulnerability of the financial system in the event of a fall in asset prices and difficulties for companies, governments or consumers in repaying loans.
Therefore, a significant downturn in financial and investment markets could have much more serious consequences now than during previous crises. .
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