저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 12월 금리인하는 확정이 아니며 파월 발언으로 시장 기대가 50% 수준으로 낮아졌다. 향후 6주간 소비와 고용 지표가 핵심 변수이며, 지표가 강하면 인하는 보류되고 약하면 50bp 인하 가능성도 있다. 미중 무역 합의는 개요 수준이라 실제 딜은 이후에 이뤄지며, 관세 인하로 물가 상승은 제한적이다. 증시는 금리인하 기대 약화로 탄력이 줄지만 실적이 양호해 2개월 내 S&P500 7,000 돌파도 가능하다고 본다. 다만 채권 금리가 4.25~4.5% 수준으로 오르면 주식 수익률에 부담이 된다.
다듬은 글
Well, as we do every month, we are joined by Jeremy Siegel. Jeremy, good to talk to you again, sir. It's very good to talk to you too, Dan. Well, obviously the big story of the week is the Federal Reserve and the rate cut that was made. But maybe even more so, the comments by Chair Powell afterwards, that a December rate cut is not a guarantee. Give us your thoughts on that.
Yeah, and the trade negotiations between Xi and Trump that just concluded are certainly worthy too. So you've got me on a very good day, with a lot of news coming out. Let's talk about the Fed.
There's no question that Powell's comments, that we're not sure at all about the December meeting, were meant to emphasize that it's far from a sure thing. You have to remember that Chair Powell, more than any other chair I can recall, is very sensitive about preparing markets for whatever the Fed is doing. If he believes the markets are heading in one direction and that's not a sure thing, or not what he intends, he's going to correct it.
This was very early, and the odds looked like 70, 80, 90 percent that he would cut. Because of the discussion, he thinks it's more toward 50 percent now, and he wanted to correct that right away. That's what he did. He pushed those odds closer to 50/50.
The truth is they don't know what they're going to do until they see what happens in the next six weeks, and those are very important six weeks. The December 10th meeting ends two weeks before Christmas, but we'll have a lot of data about how people are spending. Are they reacting to the tariffs? Is there going to be some sticker shock among some of them, where they say, "Oh my god, I bought this last year for $10, now it's $12 and I can't buy as much"? We're going to have to see whether that occurs.
In addition, we're beginning to see some layoffs. Are they AI-related or not? Some are from the big tech companies. Is that going to shake confidence? So in a way, what he's saying is we just don't know.
The good thing is, if it does negatively affect confidence and consumer spending is poor during the next six weeks, until that December 10th meeting, then there's no question they'll lower rates. In fact, if it's very poor, they could go down 50 basis points. I don't expect that to happen, but it's always possible. So in a way, I think stockholders know the Fed has their back if things slip. But he's saying if things don't slip, and things stay as strong as they look now, we may well pause at the December meeting and collect more data until next year.
Let me ask you about the markets in general, because it seems like over the last several months we've seen quite a run-up in the Dow, the NASDAQ, and the S&P. Given the dynamics we have right now, are you leaning toward that run continuing, or is there a dynamic out there where you say, "Okay, maybe we don't have a full-on correction, but at least we pull back a little bit"?
Well, I think Powell's speech is going to be a bit of a slowdown, a lid on overenthusiasm. Maybe that's good, to not get too bubbly. We have some speculative trading, though not excessive. The earnings are coming out, blockbusters, very good on the whole, and the firms' guidance is very good on the whole. That, combined with the expectation of the Fed continuing to lower rates, was producing a strong bull market. With the expectation of further rate cuts muted, that puts a dent in the bull market, but not a fatal blow.
I think we can still see gains over the next two months, and I wouldn't be surprised if we take out 7,000 on the S&P. But I think those gains will face more of a challenge, because the bond rate is now going to move up to the 4 and 4 1/2 percent level, which poses a bit more challenge to stock market returns.
Let me circle back to your comments about the labor market and the softness there right now. We don't fully know whether AI is the driver of this, though I think a lot of people suspect it's part of it. What's also interesting is that I ran into a friend of mine in the grocery store who just lost his job. He's finding it harder, and maybe companies aren't yet willing to pull the trigger on as much hiring to backfill those spots. The labor market is going to be a little challenging for a while.
We can put together jobless claims from the state numbers, despite the federal shutdown right now, and so far that's an early warning signal, which Powell mentioned frequently. We would see that type of slowdown. By the way, I don't know if you saw the news that ADP, the payroll processor, is coming out with weekly data, I think Tuesday mornings. This is something new and welcome, especially in the shutdown period. The Chicago Fed also has an unemployment indicator. So we're not flying blind by any means.
Some people said he's going to slow down because of the fog, and we really don't know. I don't think that's it. We've got enough data to make the judgments. The data we have shows continued strength. What he's saying is, if that strength continues through the Christmas holiday buying season, which is hugely important, then we'll see. Retail sales in the next six to eight weeks are, what, one-third of the year on gift items. So that's going to be very important. We'll wait and see how spooked consumers are, or aren't. If they're not spooked and consumer spending remains strong, I think you'll have a pause. If we do see a slowdown, you will definitely have a drop.
Let me finish with trade. You mentioned a bit ago that the US and China seem to be coming together. You and others have mentioned how important getting a deal done with China is, when you think about the overall potential growth of the economy and those two countries being the most influential in trade and business.
Yeah, don't forget this is not a deal yet. It's an outline. The actual deal will be done later. A lot of them are one-year extensions, although Trump said he has no problem extending it if everything goes okay. He wanted it to be longer, but I think both of them want to see how things go. That's extremely welcome. Basically, the market had figured out that Trump likes to come in with a big stick and scare everyone, and that 100% doesn't go through. So the market had figured that out, but there's been a lot of cordial interaction, and Trump is going to see Xi again, and Xi is going to visit him. This is an important, ongoing process, so that's definitely a positive.
He was in South Korea, and he was in Tokyo, where he made more deals. He wants to wrap up the deals, and it's resulting in a far lower effective tariff than all of us feared back in April. That's one reason the inflation bump has been really minor so far.
Jeremy, always great to get your thoughts and insights. We'll catch up with you again next month. All the best.
Okay, thank you very much. Bye.
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