Jeremy Siegel: Markets React to Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty, and AI Momentum

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이란 긴장 속 시장은 협상 기대로 낙폭이 제한적이며 매수 여력이 크다고 진단. 딜 성사 시 상승 여지가 있고 AI/메가캡 기술주는 구조적 성장 지속 전망. 유가는 위험프리미엄과 전략비축 확대로 $3.50 이하로는 잘 안 내려갈 것으로 봄. 연준은 워시 인준 과정과 독립성 논쟁이 쟁점이며, 통화량 증가로 금리 인하 기대를 낮추고 다음 금리 변동은 인상일 수도 있다고 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. And great once again to have our monthly conversation with Wharton Emeritus Professor of Finance Jeremy Siegel, who is also with Wisdom Tree. Jeremy, great to talk with you. Let me start out with what we've seen the last week or so with the markets because of Iran. It's been this back and forth. So how should investors be looking at this?

02. Because there's optimism one day and there's pessimism another day. Right. It seems like our podcast should be time stamped and dated because 10 minutes later it could change. Yes. Yeah, a lot of optimism on Friday. Iran saying Straits are open. Well, they weren't open. And, you know, we stopped an Iranian oil tanker, and so tensions are there.

03. But what is interesting is the reaction has been relatively mild in the markets. I mean, yes, they are down, but they're nowhere near down as much as they were up on Friday. What does this mean? The market thinks this is going to be solved, that it is going to be resolved. Now, it could be wrong, of course.

04. But I think it shows you the buying power in this market. This market, you know, is holding on to every favorable. It doesn't show any basic weakness, that means. It means there's a lot of money ready to be put into equities on any hint of favorable news, unless— the most unfavorable, of course, is we start bombing, they bomb back and really damage infrastructure.

05. Right. And that is the worst case scenario, which would really bring the market down. But right now, the market thinks that's a very low probability event. So you just kind of lead me into my next question, that, when this ends, is the expectation that we should look for a run up in the markets even further than what we saw last week?

06. Because, as you just said, there's a lot of cash ready to go into equities. Yeah, no. No, listen. If there is a deal, if, you know, Trump tweets, "We got a deal," you're going to see the market up 1000 points plus. It's— it wants a deal. I mean, and, you know, earnings are coming out good. We're seeing the economy basically strong.

07. It seems to be just, you know, moving through this, these higher, you know, gasoline prices and several other prices with much less drag than many people had feared six weeks ago. And the comments that the President made about gasoline prices didn't— as you said, didn't seem to have a negative impact to a lot of people because we're kind of— we know we're kind of in this right now.

08. But I think the expectation is, again, if we see a deal done, then the expectation is the gasoline prices may not go all the way back to where they were before, but pretty close. Well, actually, yeah. I mean, actually, I think we're gonna stay elevated. Not where we are now, at $4. Let's say to $4.20.

09. And we were, right before the war, I think, $2.90 to $3. Yeah. I don't think we're gonna go below $3.50, honestly, because I think there's going to be a risk premium in oil for a long time as a result of this. And the fact that all the countries are going to ramp up their strategic oil reserves, there's going to be a lot of inventory, a lot of cushioning that's going to take place.

10. So I actually, you know, see it coming down if there's a deal, but not by a lot. The good news is that, you know, even at current prices, the average price after inflation is taken into account of gasoline at $4.20, let's say, is actually the same as the last 40 years. I mean, we were unusually low before this happened.

11. So, I mean, you know, it's not like we're suffering, you know, cripplingly high gasoline prices. We really just moved to average. And natural gas is low. Actually, has not rallied because, you know, we have a lot of natural gas in this country. And that's also a source of a lot of people's power and energy.

12. I'm sure you have your focus on the Federal Reserve and what we will see play out on Capitol Hill this week. Now, we're taping this on a Monday. It's playing on a Wednesday. Kevin Warsh goes before the Senate Banking Committee on a Tuesday. So by the time we actually play this, we will have known what Kevin Warsh said.

13. But it's an interesting dynamic that we still see play out here, that— Yeah. I mean, there— you know, there— so let me give you my bottom line. I think Kevin Warsh, whatever he says, is going to be— I mean, he's already been approved before, and he's qualified. He's going to be approved. You know, the drama is, is Trump going to drop his suit against Jay Powell because Jay Powell says, "If you don't drop it— I mean, I'll step down as chair, as I must.

14. But I'll stay on for the next two years. Be a thorn in your side." I mean, I think it's totally crazy for Trump to pursue it when he could have his own pick and ally in there rather than someone who opposes him. But nonetheless, you know, honestly— it will be interesting to see what he says. But I think he's going to skirt around everything.

15. You know, they're going to say, "Are you going to lower rates, you gonna do this?" You can say, "It depends on what happens, you know, in June when I become the Fed governor." And, you know, given the pace of events, June seems like eons away. Well, and obviously one of the other topics that will be brought up will be Fed independence.

16. I mean— but again, that's one of those issues that he will, you know, most likely kind of try and skirt around. Yeah. I mean, you know, he will always say, "We'll do what it was. And so we'll lower rates? I don't know." And he'll be asked about the balance sheet. That'll go over the heads of most people.

17. And they don't really understand how it fits into anything anyways. They're interested in interest rates. He will say the independence is important, but we have to look at all features and he's not going to commit to anything whatsoever. I think a more interesting decision is Supreme Court, whether they say that Trump cannot remove Lisa Cook, because then that definitely means they can't remove Jay Powell from the governor— - Governor's role, yeah.

18. - position, not from the chair. That is maybe Trump's prerogative once his four-year term comes up in May. But, you know, that is an interesting issue coming up. Let me switch up to AI, because I continually, covering this from a news perspective, I'm amazed that it seems like every week we get a new deal announced between, you know, an AI company and a chip maker, but still we are in an area where there is still so much more growth to occur with all of these different companies and a great time to still be an investor in a lot of these areas.

19. Oh, yeah. Because there's so much more room to run. There's much more room to run. And in fact, the run-up since Iran has been almost a Mag 7 run more than anything else. We thought we were having a big rotation, and we did, but the last two weeks have eaten up back to the Mag 7 not taking preeminence, but coming back, relying less on, you know, whatever oil is.

20. Not cyclical the same way, it's secular. The big problem with any of those companies, and I think it's discounted in the price, is the fact that technology is moving so quickly that they can't be assured that their margins can be remained at the extremely high levels that they have. I mean, that's the question.

21. But until that breaks down, you know, I don't see why they can't continue to be market leaders. But if there is a deal on Iran and oil comes down, I think the non-tech stocks are also going to do well. One more thing I wanted to ask you before letting you go. I saw an interview with SEC Chair Paul Atkins this morning, and one of the things he talked about was market manipulation.

22. How much of a concern is that still in the mix right now? Well, are you talking about for individual companies? I'm sorry I did not hear his interview. Yeah. I mean, insider information laws are as much as ever. I don't see evidence that they're being abrogated more than before. We have some talk about prediction markets, people leaking information.

23. But that's a different ballgame, really, than insider information on leaks on that. I mean, you know, there always are. There are always a few. The government investigates them. I think around the world, the U.S. is still number one at catching these people. So let's hope they continue to maintain the integrity of the markets here.

24. So as we roll on for the next month, anything that you are really kind of trying to— your radar is focused on as we move forward the next several weeks? Well, I haven't yet— you know, I do look at the money supply. And the money supply has been going up at a more rapid rate, and that has tempered my expectation of a rate cut.

25. And in fact, I actually said I thought the next rate move, and it might not be for many months, might be a hike. And that depends, you know, basically on how strong this economy gets after the Iran situation at least is semi-solved, if I should use that term. Jeremy, always great to catch up with you.

26. We'll talk to you next month. Thank you very much, Dan. You got it. Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus Professor of Finance and also with Wisdom Tree.