저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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대법원 관세 판결 후 트럼프가 122조로 15% 관세를 부과했으나 평균 관세율은 AIPA 대비 소폭 하락, 영국 등은 상승. 338조 등 추가 권한이 남아 있어 최종 관세 수준은 큰 차이 없을 것으로 봄. 환급 문제는 수개월~수년 소송 가능성. 다우 5만 돌파, S&P 7,000 근접 후 시장은 견조. 향후 최대 변수는 이란 사태이나 예측 불가. 워시 연준의장 지명은 긍정적, 연준 금리는 3% 초반까지 두 차례 인하 필요하다고 봄. 2026년 시장 상승을 전망하며 불확실성은 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
And as always, great to spend some time every month with Wharton ameritus professor of finance Jeremy Seagull, who's also a senior economist at Wisdomree. Jeremy, obviously lots to discuss since we last talked. I guess let's start with the Scotas's decision on tariffs and obviously the potential impact that it's going to have uh on the markets, on the economy and such.
Give us your thoughts. Yeah. Wow. Um, I mean, we we we knew it the the prediction market said it was going to be NYX, but we didn't quite know how. Um, so, uh, let let's say where we stand. Um, obviously what he has gone to is section 122, which he first said was going to put a 10% and then he he realized that the max was 15, so why not go to 15,
right? % which then he went to on Saturday. Um that does lower uh um the average a couple of points from what it was under the AIPA tariffs. Um uh particularly from China and several other Asian countries. Of course, it raises it on several like uh the UK which negotiated a 10% raise. Um uh uh remember Trump likes to go in with a big stick and and then go down from there.
Um so now his at least by using that his his big stick isn't quite as big. However, he has lots of other powers. I mean he has powers to dequery embargos on certain uh um uh goods. He has a number of other authorities that he can use. One of the scariest authorities you can use is the section 338 that goes from the smooth holoy tariff of of of um of of 1932 which of course was one of the most damaging tariffs we've had that allows up to 50% with no uh requirement of federal agency and no limit on duration.
Now that would be extreme. Yeah. But he has that in a back pocket if he wants to use something like a hammer uh to do that. Um, let let's let's talk about what the consequences are likely to be. I I don't think the final tariffs are going to be all that much different from what they would negotiated.
Uh, I know there's some I think the ones that haven't negotiated will go through. Um, he can still, as I say, say, "Hey, listen, I have other powers that can be much more than 15% if I want to use them." and and therefore I think he's going to proceed along those same lines. A um a big question mark of course is the um uh the refunds which was uh unfortunately not specified by the Supreme Court and by the way this decision should have come 6 months ago.
I mean there was no there was no evidence they had to find a search for anything like that. I mean it was right in the text to begin with and we would have avoided a lot of hardship and and mess as uh uh Justice Kavanaaugh in fact used that very word. So there's a whole question of the refunds um that could be litigated for months if not years.
Um so there's more uncertainty because we you know exactly what rates are going to be and how are things has been put a monkey wrench. However, I don't think the final outcome is going to be all that much different. And um uh I think the economy actually looks fairly good looking forward. Yeah. And and since the last time we talked to you, the Dow has crossed 50,000.
Uh the S&P I think dipped across 7,000 in an intraday and then headed back. uh the the markets have been fairly resilient to all of the stuff that has gone on out there whether it be the tariff impact or you know some of the global events that have gone on as well. Yeah. I mean the big event coming up I think is Iran obviously and how he's going to act on that.
That's the next I think really significant thing that affects oil and a lot of others. We don't know what he's going to do and how he's ne negotiate that. one of the the speed bumps uh as we know Kevin Worsh being appointed is a favorable sign. So uh you know uh and the government shutdown was avoided in Maine but there's still TSA uh you know and flights uh that could be disrupted if this go on for several months but that is sort of in the background.
The government is uh funded outside of Homeland Security all the way till September 30th. So that's more on the back burner. I would say the Iran thing is the big thing coming up. Uh I wish I could predict what's going to happen, but I cannot. Um I think the tariff thing is is really going to fade into something that is is not going to be that much different uh than um what the levels we would have seen under AIPA.
Since you mentioned Kevin Worsh, let me ask you your thoughts on Mr. Worsh the next Fed chair, assuming that you know the that his nomination goes through in Congress. Um I like him. I liked him as among the four choices. I thought he was the best. So I was pleased that Kevin Worsh I mean he's a man that's been on the Fed for quite a number of years during the financial crisis under Bernani.
Um he he's he's a smart guy. uh how he won't take over the meeting until the June meeting uh which is quite a bit from now when we're going to have you know there's so much that can happen between now and then uh we we don't know how we how we going to react. Uh I I will stick with my feeling that I had I think in the in the last month.
I still think we have a ways to go down on um the uh uh Fed funds rate. I would like to see two more cuts. I'd like to see the Fed fund rate in the low 3s. right and going forward. Um but if whether it's done, you know, next meeting or two or three meetings from now is is not that significant. Well, and and interesting you mentioned that because there were comments by Christopher Waller uh earlier today as we taped this on a Monday.
Um that uh he can see that if there is some some issues with the labor data the next you know couple of times we get reports uh that he could see uh you know the Fed going to a move to a cut. So it seems like Oh absolutely. I mean it is it's completely data dependent. But if we see some weak data now we see some weak labor market data which we have not so far.
Yeah we have not seen weak neighbor labor market data. I mean those those jobless claims are remaining in there. Um you know ob we we think the equilibrium amount of monthly payroll gains is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 50,000. we've been in that area, but it could deteriorate certainly uh you know uh and and if it does deteriorate there would be no question that there would be a cut.
Um but I think they're holding firm if we t see the type of labor market data that we have actually seen over the last 3 months. So obviously Iran is the top thing on your on your radar right now. Anything else that is really drawing your attention as well? Yeah, I think I I think I think Iran is is is definitely the big thing.
I mean, there's going to be a lot of churning and little bit more uncertainty as a result of of these terrorists, but I would not, you know, I I would use that uncertainty I think is is a buying condition. I think that I think the market is still going to go up here in 2026 because I don't think the final outcome of the tariff, in fact, I think it's welcome that there was a limit put on the president.
and he can't just throw around any rate that he wants. Again, in his back pocket, he has a few nuclear options here with this Mudhalli tariff and embargos that he uh could use as a big stick, but at this particular point, doesn't look like he is uh uh wanting to use those. Jeremy, always great to catch up.
Thank you very much, sir. Thank you very much, Dan. You got it. Jeremy Seagull, who is professor emeritus of finance here at the Wharton School and senior economist at Wisdom Tree.
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