저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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연준이 0.25%p 인상했고 추가 인상 가능성이 큼(위원 다수가 1회 더 원함, 11월 또는 12월 시사). 경제는 강하며 GDP 전망치 상향(Goldman 3%대, Atlanta Fed 5%대). 임금 상승도 견조하나 유가·디젤 상승으로 인플레 압력 존재. 미국 10년물 금리는 5% 상회 후 하락. 미중 정상회담 기대: 무역 안정화 바람직. 호르무즈 해협 개방 시 증시 10~15% 상승 가능하나 실현 가능성은 낮다고 봄. AI 투자 지출은 높게 유지될 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
And great as always to be speaking with Wharton Emeritus Professor Jeremy Siegel, who joins us from Switzerland this month on his traveling roadshow. Professor, pleasure to have you from any part of the world. I'm sure you're having a great time in Switzerland. It is right on Lake Geneva-Vevey, absolutely beautiful here.
But I didn't want to miss my commentary, so I'm with you here, Dan. Well, I appreciate it, Professor. And since we last talked, the Fed did raise by a quarter point. That, I don't think, surprised anybody. But I guess now the question for you is, what's next? There's obviously a lot of speculation. Are we going to see another quarter point raise at some point later this year?
From your thought process and what you see with the economy and global affairs and inflation, what is kind of the path that maybe the Fed needs to consider? Yeah. Well, first of all, I think we should note, you know, it says like everyone expected. But what did happen, you know, on that meeting on September 16th is really quite momentous.
You know, here Trump had threatened that if Bush did not lower rates, he was going to throw high tariffs on all the countries. Not only did he not lower them, he raised them. Not only did he raise them, but not a peep out of Trump. Yeah. I mean, clearly, wars communicated through to Trump via either Besant or Hassett or others.
And he said, this is what we're going to do, prepare the president for this. And the president wasn't, of course, thrilled, but he certainly acquiesced. We should also note it was unanimous. Yeah. And that was, you know, it looked like it was going in a contentious meeting. And I am sure that there were there are a couple that wanted a double raise.
We do know, looking forward, that there's, I think, only two of the FOMC members wanted to keep this as the only raise this year. And most wanted one more raise. And it probably, it's a question of timing, because the next meeting is a week before the election. And then, of course, they could still do it in December by year end.
But it was also interesting that, you know, over four thought that we should raise a quarter each time. I'm beginning to believe, given the strength of the economy, and this economy is strong, we have the Goldman Sachs is now raising their GDP estimate for the third quarter, which, of course, is ending in about a week.
But to over three percent, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta with the GDP now says over five. Now, they're usually too optimistic. But nonetheless, you know, if we get a four hand, it would be actually showing the underlying strength of this economy. Well, and Professor, one of the things let me jump in here that also that I think is interesting is that some of the wage data is also showing to be fairly strong as well.
And I think that catches a lot of people off guard, especially because gasoline prices are higher. There is the element of inflation there. But we are seeing and I think the data has showed that lower income individuals are seeing greater wage growth than higher income individuals in the last time we saw that data.
Yeah, that is true. Now, again, those wages aren't necessarily corrected for the inflation. There's no question that oil, particularly diesel, is, you know, extraordinary amount, which does filter into others. So that inflationary pressure is there and all my other measures. And if you take a look at all the measures of, you know, what should be the proper Fed funds rate feeding in what's going on in the economy and inflation, they all really call call for even higher raises than than what we have.
But but take a look. The the 10 year was had surpassed five percent. And when wars acted, it's now below five percent. That shows you that the market has greater confidence that the Fed is going to move. I think they're going to have to move a couple of more times. We also, of course, should mention, you know, in what, six weeks, the midterm elections and, you know, polls can change and things can change.
But the takeover of the Senate by the Democrats now looks increasingly likely and a congressional sweep by the Democrats poses a an interesting situation for Trump in the in the last two years. But we will let's use maybe next month's commentary to drill into that right a little bit more. OK, as we are taping this interview, we are getting ready for a presidential meeting between President Trump and President Xi.
Those two leaders will be talking in a few days. For those from the outside, from an economics perspective and trade perspective, what should we hope to see? Not that I expect that we're going to see, you know, T's crossed and I's dotted this time. But what should we hope to see? Well, you know, we should hope to see a stable situation develop between the U.S.
and all the countries. The average tariff rate has settled down to about 10 percent, 11. I think that there's an assessment that I trump that throwing up these tariffs have not been politically successful and we don't hear quite as much about it. So we want trade deals. We want where China will accept in the U.S.
and we and we can accept in China. We know China is willing to go to Europe and now Canada, maybe, and other countries in the world. I mean, there is a lot of economic activity. I mean, we are nearly one quarter of the world's activity, but there's three quarters elsewhere that China can go to to sell its goods.
So we want to we want to sort of level that field. I mean, I'm just hoping, you know, I'm just hoping that the tariff situation, we have to renegotiate the, you know, the U.M .S.C.A. and some of the post -NAFTA situation, both with Canada and Mexico. That's clearly also something that's on the forecast.
Now, Iran, which we haven't mentioned, there's rumors, you know, that as we speak today, there may be a meeting between Trump and some Iranian official to opening the Straits of Hormuz. Let me say that if the Strait of Hormuz, if there's some deal where the Strait of Hormuz is opened and we get it, we could see the stock market 10 to 15 percent higher, very honestly.
I mean, a collapse in oil prices, I mean, that would be dramatic. Now, how, what kind of deal? I mean, it's not in Iran's interest to keep the Trump administration in clover, to say the least. So they I don't know whether any real sort of deal is going to come about until after the election, them finding it easier to deal with the Democrats who have opposed the war than the Republicans.
So when you say 10 to 15 percent potential growth, if we get a deal, is it really because of just the element of stability in the oil marketplace that that. I said, yeah, I mean, if we can get oil down to the low 80s or even into the 70s on West Texas Intermediate and then diesel going down also with the opening of the Hormuz and the building up of that.
I mean, that would be a tremendous that would be a tremendous and I say growth. I would I'm talking about what would happen to equity prices. Correct. Yep. Correct. Because that that is putting pressure on middle and lower income consumers, to say the least. And now the upper income consumers don't care much about that.
But, you know, they're doing well, they're spending. But that would definitely that would definitely. Now, I'm not I'm not holding my breath for this. As I said, I don't think it's in the interest of Iran to do much until after the election. Nonetheless, that's something something to keep in mind as rumors flow about what kind of deal could be moved on Hormuz.
I think the best thing about, you know, Xi and tariffs and all that. There's also the question about Taiwan. This is geopolitical and we're not going to go into that. That's an issue which she wants certainly to apprise the president of. But I think that also that I think stability of trade, I mean, that I think the realization that that China holds a lot of cards, but we have some cards and let's negotiate so that there is a better deal for both our countries.
Let me finish up with the topic of A.I., because there's a lot of discussion about the influence of A.I., whether to slow down. From your perspective, when you think about how A.I. is going to have an impact on the economy, when you see all of these concerns coming out, what are your thoughts? Well, I am concerned.
I mean, there's two things. First of all, there's concern about what the stock, what A.I. is going to do. Can it run amok and do bad things? And I think there is concern there. Now we can talk about what about A .I. on the economy. We have had a reflation that A.I. trade, you know, a month ago when we had to whack some people called the Leopold low.
You remember the the liquidation of his hedge fund. Oh, not liquidation, wrong word. Let me say that the re-evaluation of his hedge fund, that was sort of a low for A.I. And it's bounced back dramatically. And we have Meta coming out with, you know, A.I. agents that zoom to the top. A.I. is really I'm saying I'm taking the lead might be a little bit premature, but certainly has rallied dramatically.
And the trend is good. I mean, analysis that I see sees, you know, hyperscale or spending to remain extremely high. I don't see anything at this point slowing that down and the progress on A.I. What I'd like to see is more A .I. working to increase profit margins of the firms that employ it rather than the firms that produce it.
And there is some evidence of that now, but that would be something to see for the future. Jeremy, great to talk to you as always. We will chat again in a month. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much, Dan. You got it. Jeremy Siegel, Wisdom Tree senior economist and emeritus professor at the Wharton School.
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