저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 알리바바(BABA)를 약 107~112달러대에 추가 매수해 주요 포지션으로 보유 중이라고 짚음. 200주봉 이평선 지지 구간 접근, 중국 주식 저평가와 무역전쟁 등 거시 악재 존재. 클라우드 매출 40%대 성장과 코어 커머스 6% 성장으로 매출은 회복 중이나, 즉시배달 경쟁으로 영업이익과 현금흐름이 악화(순현금흐름 마이너스)되고 자사주 매입 여력은 줄어든 상태. 진행자는 스윙 관점에서 매력적인 매수 자리로 평가하면서도 장기 밸류 재평가에는 인내가 필요하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to two super guys. I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie. What is going on my guys and single gal probably out there that watches us. Uh we got very interesting news this week for people that follow Michael Bur and people that own Alibaba stock. He once again bought Alibaba stock which caused us to kind of revisit things.
We're going to talk about it from a like trading standpoint and also a little bit about what's going on with the company. Um just kind of get into it and see if it makes sense right now from what perspective he decided to buy Alibaba shares. I don't know. Yeah, we'll see. So ba basically obviously we've been on the stock if you've been following the channel for a long time.
It had been at 170 and then has come back down to like 105 and now Bur just entered with a hefty position. I'm going to show you his exact position and his ads. Um but more importantly what has changed about the stock to see is it still worth it, right? Because that's you know it's a it's a hefty decrease here.
Sorry I'm messing with my mic. Um, so here is BABA. Uh, here's the weekly chart for Baba. So, let me get my arrow going here. This was clearly unsustainable. I know this looks like the cues. Um, basically we hit about 200 inappropriately fast, never sustainable. Um, we also did a big jump here, kind of went down, big jump here, but now we are all the way back down.
This blue line, this is the 200. It's this is the weekly chart. to 200 weekly moving average, mind you, not daily. Um, and we are actually about to hit it. So, it's a very, very solid line of support. A lot of people look at it. As you can see, we touched it here. Usually to go through this, you have to have massive volume as we did.
So, we're coming down to that price. At the same time, Bur goes, it's time to buy, right? Um, full disclosure, I bought a 100 more shares. Did you? Oh, wow. I did. Yeah. There's this term called glutton for punishment. Yeah. I mean, you know, I shorted AMD. What what else can go wrong? Um, so this is the hangen index.
All right. Now, Baba has been down a little bit, but it's all Chinese stocks across the board not doing super well. So, that is definitely something to factor in in the back like the last six months. So, they were at a peak of about 28,000 down to 24,000 in a relatively short amount of time. So definitely something to factor.
Now when we look at Bur specifically, this kind of means nothing because this is his final Scion 13F when he closed his fund. But yeah, shutting down. Yeah. All we can see is that he did have calls on Baba. So he did think at that time when the price is in like the 140s that it it should have went higher.
So he had calls. Okay. Now, we all know he started a Substack. I'm not going to get into all that stuff, but this is June 12th. Okay. I added to my Bob a position at about 112. It's the most advanced company in China as far as a AI goes. The stock is well off recent highs. And the time comes, the stock will launch fast and fly high.
Um, this was June 12th. I'm going to show you June 18th. Uh, he bought more at 10950. This is a full position for him. He did define a full position like a long time ago on another post. So, I'm going to show you that. Um, this is kind of interesting though. So, the green bars are gross margin. The red line represents revenue.
Yellow is the price to sales, which is crazy low. Yeah. Uh, and white is the price of Baba stock. So the price to sales is very interesting compared to a decade ago. Yeah. Absolutely. Quite the multiple change. Mhm. Um so the current price for for Michael Bur. So he did an article in March um on a thesis for Hong Kong stocks specifically.
I didn't put a lot of posts into it because it's very very dense and it wasn't BABA specific. It was like 10 different Hong Kong stocks, but he had mentioned that he really liked the thesis of Baba at around 130 to 140 in that article. Okay, we know he added at 112 and 109. He had said in a post in March, um I just screenshotted it for you.
He bought a stock called FISV, which I will be doing a report on. Um he he bought it and it's now a full position. He defined that as 5 to 7%. So Baba is now a full position in his portfolio. So we know it's between five to 7% of his portfolio. I have never He's He also owns JD. Uh he added his last little bit at 28 and he said it's a very full position.
I don't know. There's no metrics for that. Closer to seven maybe. I don't know. Yeah. But it is interesting to go for both Baba and JD because if you I guess it it makes sense you're diversifying but it's the exact same play. There's really not a big world where JD goes up and Baba doesn't or vice versa.
Um so it is interesting but from this you can kind of get he's I'm going to go very full means seven. I don't I don't know. Um, but you can get he has at least a minimum of 12% total of his portfolio in Baba and JD, possibly more, but at least 12. All right. I mean, it makes sense. I like it. Obviously, like uh China's got a couple interesting things going on and have had for a while where they've had significantly lower valuations than multiple other um you know, kind of other markets, right?
They've been lagging behind. and they've had a kind of a a lagging economic issue as far as uh their growth has been depressed now for a little bit. Um we talked about it a while back youth unemployment, those sort of things. So the macroeconomic environment there is is not fantastic. Valuations are not great.
And then we also have a trade war going on. Um that's suppressed the the performance of these Chinese stocks for quite a while now. So um I can see why they haven't come back to anywhere even close to par. Right? That makes sense. Those issues are still ongoing. But from a technical standpoint, I know you like you like like to do a lot more swing trading.
It definitely uh uh seems like it's an interesting place from that perspective, right? Where we have we're lining up against like a a level of support and you know area we we've tested before. I have that 200 weekly moving average coming in. So like that those are all positive things I think from a more of a swing perspective which he he does both swing and value.
He usually value oriented pick the companies but he enters based upon like you know charting dynamics I think and swinging for a while he he does a lot of options for his swings and his investments he does just straight shares so but not always he's there's not like a defined definition for this for him but I would assume this is a longer hold at a certain value for him but yeah I did so I had 400 shares of Baba I now have 500 I bought at 107 Uh, you know, it's it's definitely funny because like we've talked about the stock a lot.
Honestly, I was just thinking about it. I only own like a hundred and some odd shares. Like it 10% of my main trading account and like less than two and a half% of my total investment portfolio, 3% something like that. So, it like it doesn't really move the needle significantly. It's still something I find interesting interesting.
I try not to, you know, dillydally with like individual stocks too much and to my uh sometimes detriment in terms of overall stock market performance, but you know that that that's my position sizing, if you will. Mine's heavier. Yeah, I noticed. All right. Um, so you know, we kind of already touched on this.
Basically, we had a big run up and we come back down to where we were with slightly negative one-year return right now, right? Despite that, revenue for Alibaba has actually started to regrow. You know, we're not returning to the the heyday where they were growing like absolutely gang busters prior to like the pandemic.
Um, but they have started to bring some growth back. If you want to slide me over here for a second, um, yeah, you you'll see that they're they're starting to put some growth back on the board here a little bit. Um, they have been doing that by cutting their profitability, unfortunately, which is a little bit worrisome.
Um, but they've been still able to, you know, ek out a net income on their like kind of, you know, well, uh, net income is a little bit more problematic for them because they invest a lot in other Chinese companies. So, they're not even really just like a a retailer or a cloud company. Um, they're also like a little bit of a mini ETF of other investments within China, this market.
Um, so their net income swings wildly. That's why you get these, you know, big green and red bars. Operating income though, this is the the core business and it has suffered of late because they have had to compete in this instant commerce environment. They've been really kind of hurting themselves and they've also investing heavily in their Alibaba cloud sector.
They've been able to get growth, but they are definitely cutting back on like the actual profitability of their core business in order to achieve that. All right. Um, this was kind of part of my initial thesis of why I really wanted Bobby share. Um, was they were repurchasing shares pretty heavily as we started buying them.
Um, there's this weird anomalous report here on I don't think that's right. It's not if this is another website coin market uh company market caps and they they don't show anything like that. This is a year-over-year as opposed to the quarterly one. I don't know why they had that weird spike. Sometimes you get some funny translations.
Um, this is what I was hoping Alibaba would do. This is this is Apple uh the stock I've owned for many many years now. uh just that decided to start buying back shares and just shoot up shares consistently for years and it's still ongoing. Okay, this is what I was hoping they were going to turn into.
It's been less so they've had opportunities now in terms of reinvesting internally. If you can reinvest internally at above market rate of return u then it makes sense to do so. Now their stock has come back enough that maybe they still consider other things at this point but investing in Alibaba cloud if they're able to drive significant growth which they you know they were reporting like 30% in that most recent quarter.
Um hopefully they can continue that. Um and then their core business group I think was 6%. So something to be keep an eye on there. Um in terms of share repurchases they really haven't been doing them of late. This is the last time they reported a quarterly look back in terms of share purchases and that was was they follow this beginning of October for the September quarter.
resources been a couple quarters since since then. Um, and they still had almost $20 billion in authorized tertiary purchases. However, that really wasn't where they were planning to to be allocating the resources. They were really they were increasing their dividend, but they were also focused on um growing their business and reinvesting.
You know, as they've said before, you know, if they put more cloud capacity on, it's utilized at 100% almost immediately. Um, so it makes sense for them to continue reinvesting internally, and I'm okay with that for now, but it's just something that I would like to keep my eye on. um from like Alibaba perspective.
So if you exclude Sun Art um couple of units that they they got rid of that were kind of lower uh returning units here 11% revenue growth you know which is great getting in double digit territory I'm happy to see that uh the core business grew at 6% and then cloud 40% most recent quarter. Yeah. Definitely igniting the growth.
Um, this is the this is the problem as we get to the money part because you hear all that because you look like what is it nine months ago we're at 200 a share right so we're we're 50% drop so something had to have happened because you know I mean this is the classic story about uh in the short term stock market's a voting machine long term it's a weighing machine um the stock uh should weigh for more than it did six you know 12 months ago but it doesn't anymore or six months ago.
Um it's in terms of voting popularity, it's lost its voting popularity, but it has should weigh more, right? It's it's gained some value from a standpoint of the business itself having reignited their growth from their core commerce, their topline and cloud growing now at 40%. We were once promised like 37% and we never achieved that until finally.
But like I said, caution yellow flag here is that they've been doing that at the cost of, you know, becoming less profitable than they were prior. Um, but the the IBA, you know, earnings and Charlie Munger term down 40% year-over-year to get 6% growth is not a fantastic uh return on that particular aspect of the business.
They have said that they think the instant commerce is got about another year or so where it'll be, you know, a net negative and then it'll become flat and then eventually it'll become a net positive for the business itself. Um, but it's you have to be committed to that longerterm valuation picture on that aggressive investment they've been putting in place there.
Um, same thing here. Just look at these profitability measures. You know, like I said, it's not a great uh tool with them because they they do a lot of investing in other uh entities within the the country there. um so that their net income tends to swing pretty wildly. But uh you know parentheses and you know solid large numbers in those parentheses is never a good thing from a stockholder perspective.
And even more so here this is one of the other things that kind of wasn't loving um not only from a net income basis but now from a cash flow basis. This has become a net negative business. They're investing so heavily that they're burning through cash rather than accumulating it which is what they did for years.
And rather than, you know, having that cash accumulate and then buying back shares, which is the classic Apple model, these guys are investing heavily. It may pay off, but, you know, it's definitely dangerous territory. This was my original thesis, what I thought about when I bought OBS shares is that they had a terrific net positive cash position that they would be able to reignite growth.
They finally have done that, but it's taken a little while longer. Uh, and they've done it at the cost of cutting off their own nose. Um, that was, you know, going to be a great stock for buybacks because they had excess cash and they had a very low valuation. So those buybacks can really accumulate to the shareholder.
Um but unfortunately, you know, that that thesis didn't really play out there. Yeah, I think um there's going to be a lot of deals that are made politically in the next like eight months with China because there's a there's a critical mineral issue. So that's a little bit of my play. And the 200E moving average is pretty it's just so hard to pass through that without volume.
which is really difficult. Yep. I completely get what you're saying. From a from a swing trading standpoint, this a very interesting buying opportunity. And from the macroeconomic standpoint, the they have headwinds, but from the business standpoint, they're doing well. Much better than they were a year ago.
Yeah, it's pretty interesting. All right, guys. Let us know what you think. Catch the next one.
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