저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
스페이스X·Anthropic·OpenAI 등 대형 IPO 물량이 몰리는 상황을 닷컴버블과 비교하며 경계. Michael Burry는 IPO 조달 규모가 2000년 수준을 넘는다고 지적. 진행자는 스페이스X가 3개월 내 급락할 것으로 보나, IPO 급락은 통상적 패턴이라는 취지. 인플레이션(PPI) 재가속과 이란 관련 불확실성도 언급. 메타 저점 매수 사례를 밝히며 메타를 선호.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Super Guys Trade Stocks. I'm Dylan. And I'm Vinnie. And Michael Burry has weighed in on the SpaceX IPO, as well as the market as a whole, and he is calling for dare I say it, a crash. Who would have thought? I will say I kind of agree. Um but we're we're we're going to take a look at kind of what he said and why.
Um and then I also got a couple cool graphs here. So, basically, there's uh there's three big upcoming IPOs. There's always way more. There's always like a hundred or something. I don't know what it is. But these three are huge. Um SpaceX target valuation was 1.75 trillion. Uh its current market cap is 2.1 trillion after uh the first day.
Please see the video yesterday. We kind of show you how it's going to shake out. Spoiler, I will be shocked if it doesn't tank within 3 months. Um that's usually what most IPOs do. I pulled a bunch of IPOs that were kind of similar, not really. Um then Anthropic target valuation of 1 trillion. It's supposed to be fall 2026.
OpenAI, this is the funniest one for me. Um target valuation it's too far out to know. So, this is going to be adjusted. Anthropic's going to be adjusted, too. So, it's 850 billion to 1 trillion. It is very dependent on the day that you look it up, if I'm being honest with you. But the target date is late 2026, early 2027.
That's the funniest one to me because they're just hemorrhaging cash with absolutely no way to make money. Um but that's fine. So, the total market cap of the S&P 500 is 65 trillion. All right. These three companies, assuming that the market cap gets added in, would be 5% of the the total S&P 500. Now, granted, it's not really how it works cuz like only 75 billion was added to the total um uh stock market market cap for SpaceX as only a percentage of the company went public, but still a lot.
It's a lot of money that is seemingly going to be coming from nowhere. No, we just print it. It's cool. That's true. so fine. It's not Drew Powell anymore, man. He's gone. I know, but like, you know, that was his parting thing advice, you know, just it's fine. Just print whatever you need. So, he just left the printer on.
Um so, Michael Burry is comparing the private market hype around SpaceX those three uh to the dot-com bubble um in a post on X. So, he said adjusted for inflation, potential IPOs from those three companies could raise as much or more capital than roughly 300 internet telecom IPOs did in 2000. It's kind of a cherry-picked stat.
Mhm. A little bit um because you just pick smaller ones. Um but Go ahead. Well, a lot of things have changed in 26 years, too. Yeah. Back in 2000, like $100 was $100, okay? Yeah, that's fair. $100 is dinner at Chili's. Well, he So, he did say adjusted for inflation. Yeah, sure. Okay, fine. So, there is that, but uh it it it is it is a little bit ominous.
So, here's what I did. So, I wanted to look at the proceeds from IPOs and the number of IPOs and see if there's any correlation to crashes. Now, when I was doing this data set, it was unbelievably hard because there's a million different definitions for IPOs. So, this for instance is getting rid of international dual listings.
It's getting rid of SPACs, which there was a monster amount of SPACs in 2022. Let me get my arrow here. There's This is way higher in actuality if you include SPACs. Um and it didn't include penny stocks and all this other kind of stuff. I'm just trying to funnel it down to big companies that would be on exchanges like in Nasdaq or NYSE, okay?
And not SPACs. So, you can see every time we had a ton of companies, right? And as we had more and more capital tank, we then recovered, more and more capital tank. No big tank here even though it was relatively flat, not a tank, but just not a lot happened. And then you can see absolute monster peak here in 2021.
This was the EV craze. Um where there is, I think, only three companies of the like 40 or so that are alive. Um that would be Rivian. It'd be Rivian and Lucid and one other one, I think. All the other ones died because they were trash. Which they all had that same chart for a while. It was amazing how similar they all looked.
Yeah. So, you know, this is this is a lot of capital, man. This is I mean, that's that's a lot of money. So, but what happens if we add in the data point of 2026? We're only halfway through. So, that's interesting. So, another little peak here, and again, only halfway through. This is not include Anthropic, which should be on this chart, which should blow this completely out of the water.
Nice. Interesting. The number is not really there. So, it's the size of the IPOs for this year though are really up there, huh? Yeah. It It's It's not so much the number, that is true. It's actually slightly less. Um we've been increasing from this this divot here, but the billions raised is insanity.
Um this was on a this was on his Substack. So, there were 91 internet-backed IPOs in the first quarter for 2000, toward the end of which the crash began, along with another 51 companies that were not internet-related. The total raised was 32.5 billion adjusted for inflation that would be 60 billion across 142 IPOs in Q1 of 2000.
SpaceX alone is going to be 75 billion. It lost This is true. It lost 4.94 billion in 2025. Uh uh those 142 IPOs in Q1 lost 3 billion total. So, this is just it's more a point that not only is it a massive IPO, it's insanity in terms of fundamentals. Sure. Yeah, I get it. But, you know the nice thing I was looking at on that chart you just had, those pink little squares or uh rectangles were great buying opportunities, okay?
Yeah, I agree. We might be there soon. There is as soon as I start seeing people saying like the market is going to go insane or have a great year and all this stuff, that's when I I personally maybe I'm contrarian, I get a little bit more biased. Do you know the Einstein of Wall Street, who that is?
Never heard of him. It's just a guy who looks like Einstein. It's not important. He's not smart. Um but, he just did a post where he's like, you know, and I love these posts cuz we can see that he's completely wrong now. He's like, "First day SpaceX is going between 300 and 500 guaranteed." Right? And then he ends the post with I think it could be 5,000 soon.
And 5,000 a share I did the math is actually 66 trillion dollars, which is the entire S&P 500. So, these are guys on Wall Street. I think that's about like GDP of the world territory somewhere around there. Yeah. He's completely serious. Like he's just 30 trillion, 32 trillion, something? Insanity, dude.
It's a stupid thing to say. I mean, we're just making up numbers at this point. We're up to the quadrillions, okay? They're coming soon. They might actually come in our lifetime, which is crazy. Now, they won't. I don't think they will. They definitely won't, actually, now that I think about it. Um so, I just want to point out this chart.
So, every single time we have as you can see here an absolute insane rise up, it's usually not sustainable. Like these long drags are much more sustainable than very, very, you know, high trajectory. What what what am I looking for? What what's that math? Slope. Yeah. There we go. When you have a very, very steep slope, geometry, baby.
It usually does not go well. We're kind of waiting for that to happen right now. So, I don't know if this is going to recover. This is absolute insanity with zero fundamentals. And then the big thing that no one is talking about is inflation. Mhm. Mhm. Inflation is back. Yeah. We talked about this little bit.
PPI has been on fire since we started to go ahead and poke Iran. Yep. We I mean, we used to do videos on this every month. Like in in this in this hole here, let me go back. In this whole area here, we were doing videos on this every month. And it's been going down for a long time. Then all of a sudden, it is the highest it's been since 2023, early 2023.
Yeah. And I don't know if you guys remember what the market did here. It wasn't great. It was actually super bad. Um well, towards the end it was great. But here was bad. Google for $100 a share again. I mean, that's pretty great to me. I I agree. Great in terms of if you're if you're cash rich. But I do I there's just so much positivity in the market and then Trump tweeted uh stock should be going up right now.
So, I'm assuming we're going to like a really positive week for absolutely no reason. Um but I'm I don't want to sound like a like a bear or, you know, Michael Burry's wrong all the time. I do think he's right on this though. On this one. Not all the time. He's wrong consistently most of the time. But,
you know, it doesn't take a giant leap of faith. It's very logical thing. These companies are selling to the public because valuations are stretched right now and they need to raise a lot of capital to fund their money-losing enterprises. It It's not like anything earth-shattering. It makes perfect logical sense.
It is just a question of what ripple effects that could have on the economy and stock market as a whole. Like, I don't know. But, I get the question or concern or whatever here. Yeah. I did buy this Let me go back to I did buy the dip a little bit mainly in Meta. Nice. So, when it when when it hit down here, I have another chart with a different line.
It hit my my line on. But, I did buy more Meta at like 570-ish, around there. I think I bought like 8 or 10 grand worth. Wow, nice. So, I didn't buy the dip other than that other than a little bit of Microsoft. So, I'm kind of hoping it dips a lot more, but who knows? I've no idea. Yeah. Well, the rumor was Meta was going to dilute shares by issuing more shares, I think, in order to continue funding their aggressive AI.
You know, it's It's just funny. I I get why they're all kind of lumped in together, but they're also very different in terms of what they're using it for. Meta is using this internally for ad targeting, same thing Google is doing. And they're showing positive ROI on that. Already? Positive ROI already, which is crazy.
I understand that they're investing very, very heavily in the hundreds of billions of dollars of territory. But, it's very different from like the Anthropic or OpenAI's, which are trying to build AI as the product itself. And I think it's a lot harder game for them to justify those valuations at that point.
So, I don't know. Very different. I agree. I agree. I think Meta's probably my pick for like for at least Google was my pick last year as the one I'm going heavy on. The more I look at it, the more I like Meta just over and over and over. So, Damn it, I'm with you. All right guys, let us know what you think. Catch you next one.
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