저자: Dylan/출연자이름미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리의 2021년 1분기 13F 공시를 분석한 영상으로, 테슬라 풋 보유와 국채 관련 포지션 등을 해설하나 영상 내 직접적인 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없음. 테슬라: 버리가 테슬라 풋옵션 약 5만 3천 주(시가 약 5억 3,400만 달러)를 보유한 것이 핵심 헤드라인. 13F는 롱 포지션만 보고하므로 실제 숏 여부는 불명확하지만 버리는 과거에 테슬라 비관론을 공개적으로 밝혀 왔음. 테슬라 규제 크레딧 수익은 타 자동차사의 전기차 생산 확대로 감소 추세라고 진행자가 설명. 테슬라 기술적 분석: 200일 이동평균선(약 585달러 부근) 이탈 여부를 주시. 이탈 시 풋 가치가 급등할 수 있다고 언급했으나 진행자 본인의 방향 예측은 아님. 국채금리: 버리가 장기 국채 풋, 초단기 국채 콜, 단기 국채 콜 등 여러 방식으로 금금리 상승(국채 가격 하락) 및 평균회귀 베팅을 하고 있다고 분석. 인플레이션 우려와 연결하며 금리가 역사적 저점에서 올라오는 중이지만 아직 여유가 있다는 관점. 기타 종목: 교도소 리츠(CXW 증액, RPT 정리)는 인플레이션 시 범죄 증가 논리로 해석. 필수소비재, 바이오(Zymeworks 등 언급), 석유 시추업체(옥시덴탈 등), 에너지 운송주 등 포트폴리오 전반 설명. 시티그룹·CVS 등 일부 종목 청산/재진입 언급. 탭(TAP) 청산 및 디스커버리 관련 거래 언급. 리스크: 13F 데이터 시차, 숏 포지션 미공개 가능성, 포지션 가격 추정치의 부정확성 등을 진행자가 단서로 제시. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버리가 'Big Short' 투자자로서 역발상 성향이 강하다고 평가하나 본인 전망은 명확히 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
today we have a really special one for you we've been waiting for this one for a few months now this is the michael bury q1 2021 update uh you know are you excited for this one dylan 100 because i i mean this guy's kind of always right so yeah yeah i know i want to do a future video where we track his uh performance but yeah i agree michael berry is kind of uh interesting character he's like he's the beast you know but uh yeah we'll get right into it i just want to take a second to say thank you guys for all the subscribers this channel has grown a lot since we did our last one and we really appreciate that um you may have seen some headlines today already about this uh 13f filing uh you know michael berry of the big short reveals his 530 million dollar bet against tesla we're going to talk about that that's one of the highlights but there's actually a couple of other things here that i found that were pretty interesting um so this is the website we use i'll link it down below this is called whale wisdom will wisdom tracks like the portfolios of any investor that has to file 13f which is anyone that has over 100 million dollars in investable assets um you know if you you you load up the the page you're going to land on this thing right here and it kind of has the update of 331 2021 which is the time period for this most recent filing and if you come into the actual holdings tab here you'll be able to see what that consists of so this is the one that's going to get all the headlines he has a tesla put 000 shares of tesla uh you know which would have a market value of 534 million dollars now that doesn't mean that berry sold short or like that uh tesla stock he has done that in the past um you know the 13 filings only include uh long puts long calls and long stock positions doesn't include any shorts um but you know he's been pretty vocal about being anti-tesla i don't know if you're kind of aware of this dylan um you know i pulled a couple of uh tweets from his prior you know prior to michael burger leaving below a hundred huh whoa february 15th man yeah whatever 800.
yeah he he's been short tesla for a while but we haven't seen it on his previous 13 fights because this is the first time he's used a put to be short tesla basically yeah i mean he basically is essentially short i mean if anything it's like leveraged because it's an option so yep yeah now he's tesla so he thinks it's gonna happen more abruptly and uh if you actually went back and read this cnbc article that we kind of pulled up really quickly there um there's a good reason for it the reason being is that if you look at uh the recent kind of quarterly filings uh so look at this fourth quarter 2021 tests 270 million dollars in net profit that was because they had 400 million dollars in regulatory credits that they were able to sell yeah you know and that that is declining rapidly as automakers start producing more and more electric vehicles so tesla's kind of advantage in terms of selling these regulatory credits is is quickly eroding yeah every every big automaker either has is either starting their own or it has bought in on some of the other 50 spocks that so yeah you know 50 spock ev's so theoretically they can just in-house their own credits and tesla's gonna suffer from that yeah there's actually a spock now in michael barry's uh portfolio oh is it fubo it is not it's not actually but i was surprised to see it there um but anyway so you know if you look at this like i said big kind of short tesla position here you know that's the one that's been getting all the headlines you know he's been very vocal about being ant uh you know kind of thinking tesla's overpriced it's not that he's really anti-tesla um but you know he doesn't see the value there especially as the um credits kind of diminish in terms of their impact to tesla's balance sheet this what i actually thought was interesting is the next line down here uh the high shares 20 plus treasury bond etf uh so if you look at that he he actually has a kind of a big kind of position here in terms of you know treasury bond uh yields um because the the as the price declines that the yield increases like kind of an inverse uh pair there so he actually he's uh bought a put against uh some a long treasury bond fund um he has a call down here against a ultra short treasury bond fund long term um and then he actually had a couple other plays within it too right here so he is bought out right some ultra short uh fund and then he has another call down here against a um a short uh treasury bond fund so like he's got he's playing a kind of a um reversion towards the mean i guess you could say in terms of treasury yields in four different ways which is fascinating to me uh dylan was kind of like same thing like why didn't he just do it all at once what's the logic between buying treasury puts and then bear treasury calls because i don't i don't man to be in his mind yeah yeah exactly just a just a a day to walk around in there and see what's up um what does that even mean you know like i don't know if you've ever seen this chart here this is a treasury kind of yield over over a few decades here uh so we're obviously like you know historic lows we hit historic lows you know last year because of the whole coven 19 pandemic and we're starting to inch back up here a little bit um but you know we are still far away from um kind of the mean and you know there's a lot of been a lot of talk about inflation whether or not the um federal reserve is gonna have to increase interest rates and you know the last time we really saw a true like inflation united states was here back in the early 1980s like 1970s uh so like you know this would have quite a room to run um to get back up towards that territory there i know right that's a really ballsy bet yeah can you imagine having like a 15 mortgage yeah you know my you know that's my my dad always said that's like what he had i'm like that's crazy yeah yeah it seems crazy to us too um one other thing i wanted to highlight actually too back to the tesla story sorry i skipped it here um this is this is a one-year chart of tesla what do you think of tesla just hovering around that 200-day uh moving average well steve no matter what it's very seldom that a stock will just crash uh below 200 a day but if they are crashed below a 200-day what they'll end up doing is they'll go below it re-test it and if that re-test isn't successful they can fall for a long time i i don't think i can pull it up here while you're talking but the next kind of um deal support would be something called v-wap which is not usually used for daily it's usually intraday trading but the dailies do respect it i'm gonna look that up yeah i think it's interesting especially you know like i said it's good it's got pretty extended here and now you know you're starting to see it kind of revert back down and it's it's just hugging this 200-day moving average right now i am not a swing trader but uh that definitely makes me a little a little weary that if this thing breaks that uh michael berry's puts can become very valuable very quickly uh mind you those puts are you know this is a about 45 days uh passed when they you know our last kind of update there um you know the he we know he had the puts or as of about here um you know tesla was still training in the mid sixes at that point so you know he may he's already kind of made some money in terms of that because tesla's moved down about 10 or so from where he uh uh yeah held them so v wap which is not as near as respected on a daily chart as a 200 um sma is actually at 550.
so we're still within the range the 585 is that is the 200 moving average and we just closed below that after a hammer going up and man this could not this might be yeah what a ballsy genius guy yeah yeah that is for sure um you know something else i kind of wanted to highlight from this whole thing is uh you know we talked a little bit about last time about the prison reits uh he actually closed one position i think was rpt and he doubled down on the cxw the core civic uh increasing his position in core civic uh so like you know i guess he's kind of picked his winner in terms of the uh prison reach that he can which is to hold uh you know throughout this whole kind of time period right here and uh for those who don't remember he he's bullish on prisons because in times of inflation there's uh more crime exactly hence prisons yeah and then you know his portfolio definitely kind of has this you know inflation risk kind of tint to it at least if you know if you will uh there's consumer staples typically does well during inflationary time periods um this is a uh we call it the um grocery store chain in like the mid-atlantic region this zyme kind of caught me by surprise here it seems like a decent sized position in a uh biotech company um this is this is their one year chart as you can kind of see here they had a pretty decent pullback i didn't get a chance to search for the news regarding this um but they are definitely a clinical stage biotech company they have partnerships with logic a lot of big names johnson johnson merck um but i didn't get a chance to see what news items transpired around this time but we know that he held them approximately here so it's still pretty flat to where michael bury um you know for sure had a position within them i could take a look at their most recent quarterly filing it looks like they do a lot of um you know kind of oncology treatment stuff they have like targeted gene therapy um you know which is definitely interesting i you know working in medicine you know you see a lot of this this her2 stuff unfortunately um so i think it's a uh certainly interesting last step points a company i'm gonna i'm gonna dive deeper into myself uh try to figure out a little bit more about what his um his thought process is here he's you know being a cashflow investor predominantly is what i considered him uh he does have some biotech plays which is kind of interesting to me hmm yeah i don't know right i was trying to look up like if the brand of xenotitumab um for for any of those people that aren't medicine if it ends in math it means money that's that's the general rule they're very expensive medications it means monoclonal antibody but yes it's very very valuable typically it means money yeah money tens of thousands of dollars a year is like what the treatment in that kind of you know realm costs um so continuing down his portfolio here he he actually did decrease his uh stake in lumen technologies uh you know pretty reasonable it actually had like a decent kind of run up here you're talking about a 30-40 percent appreciation from the uh where he initiated the position so it makes sense uh cvs was kind of interesting he previously had a position on them in uh opened in the third quarter of 2020 and he closed in the fourth quarter 2021 um so but he's kind of circled back around and has reopened a position in cvs both in long shares and in a call option uh right here yeah so i mean he's kind of bullish and see if yeah cvs is trading at like a forward pe like 15 so i'm not surprised that seems to fit with his cash flow perspective uh some energy companies um you know the sun coke energy and uh now is a predominantly oil driller it actually has a couple other oil plates here so occidental oxy guess who's swinging oxy right now and i might as well go long if it's in his portfolio might as well i'm in at like 24 50.
it was gonna be in the swing video and it didn't make the cut i did x instead x also went up so it's fine yeah it has a few other like kind of oil drillers this uh hp is another oil drip driller and then pds precision drilling corporation so he's got a few there um and then like i said this is that kind of inverse ultra short treasury if you go to the second page of the everything here you're going to see uh this is a transport kind of company genco so it's another way to play oil oil and gas and also kind of shipping of raw materials around the united states around the world um golden uh golden ocean you know kind of oil drilling another energy play this is another transport company's scorpio tankers it's a cool name i muted myself because my dogs are barking so i got you uh and then look at this another yet another uh kind of uh treasury etf call option man what is this right all right and yeah finally one more biotech pharmaceutical company um these are the things we're now down here things that he closed out of his position there was actually a viewer that asked about citigroup said he was up significantly on his calls it's good for you man um yeah yeah it looks like blurry closed those calls i actually exited my city group stock as well me too yeah i was a long city group i i'm i'm i'm out of the city group now um this is one of the other prison reits that i said he closed he closed out of there um where the did i skip the the i skipped the um what do you call it the uh um where was it vector acquisition corp that that's the spock he's actually in which is supposed to uh merge with rocket lab yeah no idea what that no rocket lab is um i want to say i don't think they make rockets though yes they're out of like new zealand or australia uh they're kind of the small to medium-sized uh satellite like launching business they've had a few successful launches so far and recoveries um their kind of major claim to fame i guess is that they're using uh electric motors for like the the turbine pumps on their their um rocket engines so interesting compared to like a traditional rocket engine has a you know like a pre-burner which is used to pump the fuel into the seconds yeah i completely not related to this video but but yeah anyway so i was just like michael berry's in a spock and that's the one vector acquisition corp it's basically fubo yeah basically uh and then oh i wanted to highlight this one last one so this ar po uh another healthcare company it's a biotech company but interestingly if you wanted to follow him into this trade if you take a look at it uh they just had a nice little bump up today after hours i'm sorry during the day 43 um they it sounds like they're going to get a merger deal going here with another bioscience company so uh it looks like that that ship may have sailed yeah that's probably over yeah this this coveted drug the protecting gets vessel dysfunction is interesting um so you know covid does definitely increases your risk of blood clots and things like that so yeah could be viable could be important but um kind of interesting i thought at least go back can you go back to his closed positions yeah yeah can do i noticed he he also closed tap yeah he closed tap he's out on tap he got out on tap i can't say i blame him uh you know he was looking at getting into taps somewhere this says 45 but in reality i think he probably got into it lower than that um i think they hit like a low of about 35 during the the quarter of which he opened the position uh when this says estimated average price paid they're just using the price from the final day of that uh quarter in which he opened um the position but yeah i'm staying in tap i kind of changed my position why i got into that i got into them originally for cash flow purpose um and now i'm looking at them from a standpoint of the social arbitrage trade i've some good videos out there by dumb money uh if you've never checked them out they're uh kind of social arbitrage investors so i figure it's worthwhile staying in tap for now because you know i have a couple of catalysts coming up with the um uh topo chico hart seltzer uh i think this is gonna be a pretty big summer as far as alcohol consumption people are ready to go a little buck wild and uh you're also gonna see the zoa the brock energy drink rolling out this year so they have some catalyst coming up for it for tap but i'm willing to wait for another six months at least to see kind of how that merits out um discovery had a big news today uh the merger with uh yeah he so that was the other one i realized that he sold that's fairly interesting because that was it was them in viacom that had the massive crashes right yeah they were chilling at 80 and crashed down to 35 like within like three days i really wonder where he bought it and if he lost money on that because you know we don't know the exact dates we just have we're just so you can look at it when he when he instituted his position we turned on the first quarter of last year so it was around 19 at the end of that quarter uh so yeah he he he probably caught close to a double somewhere in that ballpark on it anyways yeah exactly you know you can't uh can't fight the master man he's like a yoda of uh deep value investing i know right gonna get copyright strike by disney all right you have any closing thoughts uh no i'm very surprised he closed tap because i thought that they still had a lot more to run um i'm very very so the short on tesla is like that's not like a little short like that's it was 39 percent i was like that's a he's going hard yeah all right let's show you the other monkey blurry tweet about going short tesla because he didn't you don't have to disclose short positions so at one point uh he had tweeted this oh my shorts that got me down before hoping i'm no clown what an interesting guy yeah yeah he is um you know this is uh i think from yeah february 8th 2021 yeah he's talked about it before like i said uh actual short positions are do not have to be disclosed just um you know when he's now that he's long a put that's the reason why it's in this regulatory falling all right all right well thanks for tuning in guys we'll catch you on the next one have a good one
Comments 0