저자: UnrivaledInvesting진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2021년 1분기 13F 보유 종목 분석 결론: 버리는 테슬라 풋, 성장주 ETF 풋, TLT 풋 등으로 고금리·고변동성·인플레이션 전가에 베팅하고 있으며, 진행자는 이 테마를 참고해 자신의 투자 기준을 강화하고 있다. 버리의 포트폴리오 분석: 최대 보유 포지션은 테슬라 풋옵션이며, 명목가치는 약 5.3억 달러이지만 실제 투입액은 그보다 훨씬 적을 것으로 추정(약 5천만~2.5억 달러). 구글·페이스북 콜옵션도 보유. 진행자 해석: 옵션 가격은 변동성에 민감하므로 버리의 옵션 보유는 변동성 상승 베팅으로 볼 수 있음. 또한 TLT 풋과 TBT 콜은 금리 상승 베팅. 구글·페이스북은 광고 지출 증가로 인플레이션 수혜주로 평가. 사회적 영향 우려: 고인플레이션 시 중산층이 빈곤해지고 저소득층이 더 어려워져 사회적 혼란이 커질 수 있다고 주장. 제롬 파월(연준) 발언이나 제프 군랙 등 유명 투자자 의견을 인용. 금융 여건 변화: 연준의 양적완화 지원이 약화되고, 장기금리 상승 시 연준 통제력이 떨어질 수 있음. 정부 부채 증가로 이자 부담이 커지며 기본소득 같은 정책 추진이 어려워질 수 있다고 봄. 진행자의 포트폴리오 전략: 신규 투자 기준을 상향 — 하방 +30~50%, 상방 +300~500%(5년) 목표로 높임. 밸류에이션 축소 가능성을 전제로 하락 방어 강화. 청산가치 이하 거래 종목을 예시로 제시. 헤지 전략: 개인 포트폴리오에 헤지 구성요소를 두는 방식을 사용. 개별 종목 공매도는 하지 않는다고 밝힘. 결론: 고변동성·고금리·인플레이션 전가 테마를 염두에 두고 기대치를 낮추며, 방어적 포지션을 병행하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
dr michael bury has gone all in on rising chaos and increasing volatility should you heed his warning as an investor for you to consider for your own investment portfolio this is your first time tuning in my name is daniel you're watching unrivaled investing i talk about all things finance primarily focused on potential multibaggers types of stocks i think can go up potentially hundreds of thousands percent over time but occasionally there's something particularly interesting to me like today's calling out michael bird dr michael burries his investment holdings and i personally think he's worth listening to i mean i've called out several things that he said in the past but he's in my opinion the equivalent of a modern day financial cassandra where he sees events unfold before they happen people you know he says you know what i think the these homes are overpriced i think there's a bunch of housing bonds that are going to blow up and people go you're a dope and then they blow up and he's right and he's like you know what it's going to have terrible effects on the academy he's right and so he you know and he was profiled in the big short movie you know starring christian bale uh he bought gamestop before as a meme he called out the ark etfs uh as having potential liquidity risks and downside uh you know issues um before they recently dropped about 35 percent um and i suspect he sees even further downside from here now he's going all in on this new theme and i think it's a theme uh there are several bets that sort of fit that theme of rising chaos and volatility in the years ahead but before that let me tell you actually a quick still story based on my own personal experience you know working on wall street whether or not as an investment bank or a multi-billion dollar hedge fund which is that it's ev there are four times a year where you get to see the the holdings of other investors that have over 100 million dollars it's per sec requirements and you have to say hey these are what i own these are my holdings now you don't report certain things you don't show your international holdings and you don't show your short positions so but you do show what you are long and so this is one of the favorite times on wall street where you get to see like oh it's almost like playing a a global investing card game and for one you know for four times a year you get a sort of spot check and be like okay what cards are you holding i only can see some of the cards you know whatever you're long uh i don't get to see you know international holdings which might be a big part of your portfolio or uh you know or their short positions um but i can see you know your your what you own via stock or what you own via options and options can be another way of betting against things and so it's it's a really interesting time especially when you're looking for investors not traders but investors that generally make bets over a multi-month or multi-year period is that you might find a good way of like poaching ideas hey could this be a potentially attractive idea you see what dr michael bury's doing so here today he just filed his first quarter 2021 holdings that that was as of the end of march 31st there is a little bit of lag but given that he's a long-term investor there's the potential for you to potentially capitalize or at least recognize the themes that he's banking on and say hey could this impact my portfolio currently especially because you know he's putting up real money and he's one of the most successful investors of all time so let me show you his top holdings and so you know going through his top holdings you see yes you do the get the the all the youtubers and cnbc saying oh my goodness he made this monster bet against tesla stock um you know saying it's 530 million plus market value the reality is the amount of money that he's putting up for this is probably a lot less than that because this is the the notional value this is this is the value effectively if tesla dropped to zero how much money his position would be worth so the amount of money he's actually putting up is probably some sort of fraction of that either you know my bet is somewhere between 50 and 250 million would be my thought process on that uh but yes tesla the tesla put that he bought and owns is his top position when you see it on the notional value perspective and look this is not surprising i did a video on tesla's valuation you know calling out ark's crazy valuation in my opinion on tesla so i i don't view this thesis as particularly surprising so you can click on that video if you're interested personally i think it was a really bad look to come out with a model saying hey tesla has this even higher valuation and then proceed to trim some tesla shares but anyway but that's that's that's a whole you know separate you know uh thought process but there's actually a bigger theme going on with with what michael burr is doing with his investment portfolio and the number one theme is actually that look at all these things these are all call or put options normally you see a lot of stocks but in this case they're options these are levered bets on a lot of different things and why why would he all of a sudden if be making all these different levered bets across various different you know securities and industries and tapping into different global macroeconomic trends and the reason why options are priced not only on the intrinsic value so like it's priced based on tesla stock and the using the tesla put where he will make money if tesla stock drops but options are also priced on volatility such that you're saying hey what's this option worth over these next few months now the detail of the filing doesn't show you know what's the strike price and how you know how many months or even years out these these options go for but a key component of all option value is volatility and i'd argue this is part of this rising theme of higher chaos or increase in chaos increasing volatility where if you own this this portfolio and his top holdings are these options uh arguably are these options it does increase the odds that you're you're effectively saying oh i think volatility is going to go up in the future because these options will become worth more you know another key aspect to to his his portfolio is looking at several calls saying he thinks rates are going to go higher one is be a put option saying that tlt will go down tlt is an etf representing the 20-year government bond yield and tbt record is the ultra-short 20-year bonds and that's a call so these are effectively very similar positions saying look i think rates are gonna rise and that's that's what he's calling on he's calling out what i would think is an increasing trend an increasingly obvious macro call of like yeah there's this risk that you have higher inflation and higher rates in the future in which case u.s government bonds get sold off particularly long dated bonds just aren't pricing it correctly where you're looking at low single digit interest rates so he's looking at much higher interest rates so number one higher volatility number two higher rates number three inflation pass-through type of securities you know google and facebook the reality is they are inflation pass-through type companies where look if you have higher ad spend you know you need to be able to spend more for those ad dollars and your businesses you know having to raise prices you know they are direct benefit you know beneficiaries of higher inflation you know if you're looking at craft uh you know the if you if you have to buy ketchup and you know you're going to go buy the craft heinz ketchup you know they're going to be able to pass through those higher input costs over time and so i i look at this portfolio as higher volatility higher interest rates and inflation pass through this is almost like all a macro bet with exception of tesla test is effectively like this hey this valuation is just kooky dukes and then look if you're interested on facebook and alphabet i actually have done videos on both of them i personally own both and relative to the rest of the market i definitely understand why he's buying call options on both of them effectively levered bets that he thinks google and facebook will go higher in the future and also relative to their valuation just isn't that crazy especially relative to a company like tesla um and keep in mind maybe you know maybe he's wrong about tesla maybe tesla goes a lot higher um you know but when i when i did this initial valuation on tesla you know i was sort of saying look the reason why there's a lot of downside risk is you're effectively you're you're pricing in some sort of business lines that just either don't exist yet or haven't developed yet and that's that's what arc does with their valuation saying this robo taxi fleet's going to get built out when in reality you're not really seeing the data points yet really supporting it in terms of rolling it out you would see it quarter by quarter versus like billions of miles driven by a robo taxi fleet that they assumed anywho you could watch that whole video and and you know what maybe you know maybe there'll be a new new business line on uh helping uh snl create higher ad revenue or something like that um and so then another one is you know here it is this is a bet against growth you know this is an etf that he's betting against here so he's betting against growth stocks much like tesla he's betting on higher interest rates and he's betting on inflation higher inflation and now why is he betting on chaos um and what how am i personally positioning myself as i look at this and how can chaos effectively affect your personal investment portfolio so when i look at chaos and i think about the impacts of higher inflation higher rates and broadly why why am i saying this higher chaos is i think when i when i when i think about higher rates who gets hurt most with inflation and this has been a point called out by jeff gundlach and and stanley druckenmiller ii 2 in my opinion of the world's you know first first-rate investors world's best investors and they both make the point that higher inflation who's that hurt most it hurts the middle class most and then it hurts poor people most so the folks that don't even you know can't even tune into youtube to watch investment channels you know those are the folks that are going to get the hurt hurt the most as as uh you know jeff gundlach you know articulated gunlac articulated he was effectively saying the middle with with rapidly higher inflation the middle class effectively becomes poor and the poor go hungry and that's a that is a scary thought because when you have people starting to go hungry or you have this this feeling like oh you know gas prices went up how can i possibly make ends meet you get a few more people that are just you know make a screw loose and it does increase the general chaos in my opinion of society it's you know let head's role sort of approach when when when fewer and fewer people feel like they're hey they can make it and to the point that stanley druckenmiller has to say about higher inflation is like look the world's wealthiest people they're going to be ones that figure out how to adapt to it they're they're going to be the ones that say hey how can we position our portfolio and that's exactly what you're seeing with you know dr michael berry saying like hey how can i position my portfolio to adapt to the times this is not something that most people can think about so this is how how does the you know the wealthy aspiring and wealthy folks adapt to these increasing risks of higher inflation so one is the societal impact which is you know middle class effectively becomes poorer and the poor go hungry and so you have this higher chaos aspect another aspect is with higher rates equity prices get hammered particularly long dated you know unprofitable companies where the business model is dependent on free cash flows generated in five to ten years from now so those stocks get hammered bond prices get hammered and that's what you know dr michael berry is banking on here with with these you know hard argue sizable bets um then the major major pension funds you know the folks that are effectively guaranteeing an income for those retired folks now they're in trouble so this this adds to the chaos you know thesis that's starting to build up here is because you're looking at these these major pension funds and maybe i'll do a whole separate video on it where their mandate is maybe 60 40 you know 60 equities 40 bonds well bonds right now they're getting low single digits and equities are priced u.s equities are priced very expensively so you have this setup of like man this could be the perfect storm for many endowment or many institutions many pension funds that have this promised fixed rate return for their retirees and they're not going to be able to meet seven eight percent let's say in the decade ahead because equities might not do it and that bond portfolio is going to get sliced with higher inflation and higher rates and that's effectively what dr michael burr is calling out um the a key aspect to this market rally and what's held up the market so far is the federal reserve every step along the way oh okay we'll print out more money more qe oh 120 billion this month alone will will buy up securities and that coddling the federal reserve coddling i think is gone once you start having real inflation and rates start having to move up when you have you know interest rates long-dated interest rates moving up in the federal federal reserve is no longer in control and there are steps that you know the the early indic data point suggests it's starting to head that way um coddling the u.s equity markets that's gone you know sort of having a a support beam for the equity markets gone then also the the profligate government spending you know these huge government deficits that also starts taking a hit when when you know the government starts saying okay wait a second we might have to pay a real interest on these borrowings and because the debt balance has grown so significantly that higher interest amount is going to become a larger and larger portion of the budget and so then oh we we can't you know universal basic income that's that's gonna be an idea that gets completely tossed out because they're like how can we possibly afford that and so this is you know you can see how this creates the dynamics of rising chaos rising volatility so how am i positioning myself you know as i look at this and obviously for the full breakdown you need to go to unrivaledinvesting.com where each month the first week of the month i have a full download of my portfolio as well as for as well as for journey subscribers each month i call out one potential multi-bagger and that's that's the goal is like each month trying to find something that i think can go up hundreds or thousands of percent over time um and that's that's for the investors that are saying hey you know what i recognize this is the journey let's say each month i want to add three four five percent to my portfolio and i'm going to try to find ideas that i can sort of layer in and average into in my portfolio so that's what i'm trying to do with my unrivaled investing journey dot com as well as you know an investment community that you know on discord the like-minded investors and people can share thoughts and and and share share news um but you know the the insights that i have for you if you haven't subscribed yet is that there are a few themes that i am considering which is that for any new investment in size any material new investment i'm raising the hurdle rate in terms of what i'm thinking about the risk reward you know previously if i were adding capital based on the investment environment or just everything seemed to be catching a bid i would say hey my downside scenario would be okay if there's downside of 20 and my upside you know was like 100 and 200 and you know that's that's sort of the risk award that i was looking for is like downside 20 upside 150 200 that would be great now because of this sort of thesis of growing chaos increasing volatility i'm raising the bar so that means any new capital that i'm going to deploy in size from my personal portfolio i personally want to say you know what on my low side i want to have plus thirty to forty fifty percent and on my high side now instead of let's say a hundred to two hundred percent over the next five years i'm gonna want maybe three hundred to five hundred percent upside so i'm getting more restrictive on terms of what i'm willing to deploy capital into i want that higher bar a higher hurdle rate the next aspect is i want more downside protection and that's covered with with what i was talking about in the first point of like on my low side i still want to have meaningful upside that's but i i i want to to consider the fact that if you have much higher rates like dr michael bury is banking on then i recognize that valuations might contract so when i think about any investments i want to consider well what are my current valuations and how much could they contract in the future now of course things can always go to extremes when people start panicking as as well as the extremes that you saw earlier this year with this back boom i'd argue so i just want to focus on what's what's my downside and that's part of the reason why for this month's potential multibagger i'm calling out a company that trades below liquidation value that i think still has two to three hundred percent upside over time so that's that's a perfect example of how i'm i'm starting to put you know position my portfolio is like oh okay if we're entering a period of increasing chaos increasing volatility i want to own the names where i have that much more of a margin of safety if things go awry oh okay well it's below liquidation value and i also do for my own personal portfolio and this is this is how i personally like to invest i also do hedge now i just did a video on how you can personally profit from short sellers and short selling it's not for everybody and personally in my own personal journey i tr you know i don't short uh individual stocks i don't want to short against individual people that's that's not how i want to have my journey but that is how some people do it and i can understand it what i personally do is i do a hedged portfolio strategy uh and i talk about that in a hedged uh investing educational video that you can watch if you're an unrivaled investing journey subscriber so those those are sort of the how do how do i adapt in in all honesty that's what life's all about you have to adapt it's not who's the strongest or the fastest or smartest who can adapt the best to the current environment and i think adapting to this current environment of potentially higher chaos higher volatility means raising the bar expect you know expecting the worst so that means anticipating lower valuation so think about what what are my current valuations that i'm paying for things you know how how low can my current portfolio go as well as tools that you can use to try to make money if things start going against you like having a hedged equity portfolio or things that you start shorting if things start going down whether or not shorting indices or what have you so having a hedge component but that depends on the individual so anywho i hope this video talking about dr michael bury's first quarter 21 new holdings his big tesla short as well as his i would argue the more important aspect the theme of increasing chaos increasing volatility i hope this video has been helpful for you if so please make a point of subscribing if you're already a subscriber i do appreciate that thumbs up thanks so much for watching
Comments 0