저자: TomNash · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리의 테슬라 풋옵션 베팅은 테슬라 장기 약세 견해가 아니라 인플레이션 우려에 따른 기술주 매도 흐름에 대한 거시적 베팅이며, 테슬라는 장기적으로 여전히 강세로 본다. 베팅 내용: 마이클 버리(Scion Asset Management)가 1분기 13F 기준 약 5억 달러(펀드의 약 40%)를 테슬라 풋옵션에 투입했다고 설명. 베팅 해석: 풋옵션은 테슬라 공매도와 유사한 약세 베팅이나, 화자는 버리가 개별 기업이 아닌 거시경제(인플레이션 공포로 미래 성장주가 하락하고 현금흐름이 확실한 기업이 강세) 흐름을 읽었다고 주장. 근거: 같은 시기 페이스북과 구글 콜옵션도 매수했으며, 두 기업은 현금흐름이 플러스인 성숙 기업이라는 점을 근거로 제시. 손익 추정: 1분기 900달러 부근에서 베팅했고 현재 600달러 아래라 버리가 일부 수익을 냈을 것으로 추정하나, 실제 수치는 확인하지 않았다고 밝힘. 테슬라 전망: 단기적으로는 인플레이션 우려로 주가가 하락할 수 있으나 장기적으로는 올해 약 100만 대 판매와 에너지 사업 확장을 근거로 지배적 기업이 될 것이라고 전망. 목표가: 아크(ARK)의 3000달러 전망은 공격적이라고 평가하면서도, 전통 기업 수준의 밸류에이션을 적용하면 내년 말 주가 약 1500달러가 적정하다고 주장. 투자 태도: 장기 보유 관점을 강조하며 자신은 인내심을 갖고 기다릴 것이라고 밝힘. 양측 평가: 버리를 테슬라 적대자로 보는 시각과 '공공의 적'으로 보는 시각 모두 사실이 아니라고 주장.
다듬은 글
so you probably heard and if you didn't that's a good opportunity to learn about it that michael berry the guy from the big short and just insanely smart he just put up 500 million against tesla now i want to give you some context about what's really going on here beyond the fud from both sides of course you're going to have the tesla haters saying well michael berry is betting a good cessna that means tesla's garbage and on the other side you're going to have all the tesla crowd basically saying well michael berry's public enemy number one neither side will be right because i'm going to tell you exactly what's going on here because you know this channel i like to give you the real story not the populistic crap from both sides not what sells newspapers but rather what actually is the facts so here's the story michael berry runs a firm called scion asset management now in that firm he has to file form 13f now he just filed yesterday or rather tonight the 13 f for sign asset management which tells us what he did in the first quarter of this year which is already over now in that form we saw that zion put up 500 million which is 40 of the entire fund on a put against tesla i put is a distant cousin i guess over short because the put option actually obligates somebody to buy tesla stock from you at a certain price rather than a call option which gives you the opportunity to buy so essentially a put option is something you purchase when you're betting against the company it's very similar to shorting a company however and here's the stick here because tesla shorts lost 40 billion dollars in 2020 they got shellacked and also we know for a fact that michael berry is a very smart dude so what the hell is going on here why is michael berry betting against tesla well he is not betting against tesla not really he is the kind of guy who knows how to read the market the macroeconomics that's how he made his money now let's eliminate all the fud and emotions out of it check this out he made a bet in the first quarter when the tesla shares were at 900 dollars that inflation fears will hammer future tech stocks down and will help current cash flow positive cash flows so he also bought call options on facebook and google which are currently cash flow positive mature companies he bought a put on a future profit company because he was betting that inflation fears will actually cause people to sell off tech which is exactly what's been going on in the past few months you've been seeing people sell future technological stocks like crazy and you've seen facebook and google do well because they're currently cash flow positive so it's kind of a macroeconomic effect it has nothing to do with tesla now the thing is michael berry probably made some money of this put i don't know for a fact because i haven't seen the numbers but he put up this put when the price was 900 it's under 600 right now so i'm guessing he made a few shekels but that does not necessarily mean that he was betting against tesla in the long run because that would not be that smart and i don't think that's what he's doing now in the short term yes inflation fears are driving tesla price down and for swing traders and day traders not so pleasant however it is completely meaningless in the long term tesla will definitely be one of the biggest companies in the world is going to dominate this year with about a million vehicles mark my words and they're going to drive into energy and we've been talking about the bulkies we don't have to repeat the pool case right here i don't know if it's going to hit three thousand dollars like ark is saying i mean that's a little bit aggressive but i think it's easily a traditional company which means the share price should be around fifteen hundred dollars by the end of next year now i'm patient and i'm gonna wait i think most investors would tesla have that patience and have that long horizon so whenever you hear people from both sides saying well michael berry is public enemy or michael berry is stupid or michael berry thinks that tesla's trash neither is true michael berry made a bet on a certain trend in the market and he was once again right that has nothing to do with tesla now i hope you enjoyed this video shout out to the channel members shout out to the patriots i'm going to see you tomorrow after i get some sleep have a good night
Comments 0