저자: AndrewGraham · 외국인
요약 보기
Andrew Graham는 기술주 전반에 대해 낙관적 입장을 보이며 NVDA를 'Must Own'으로 제시한다. 다만 국채 공급 증가와 CDS 확대는 단기 리스크로 지적한다. 9월 계절성 약세와 중간선거 변동성을 언급하나 중간선거 이후 시장은 강세 경향이 있다고 본다. 네트워킹(Arista, Cisco)과 Snowflake, Palo Alto Networks를 추천하며 PANW는 다음 실적에서 가이던스 상향을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
The technology sector is growing steadily again. Although the situation was volatile. What market factors affect this sector? To learn more, welcome to Andrew Graham, Managing Partner of Jackson Square Capital, who joins us at the New York Stock Exchange. Before we move on to a general overview of the technology market , we need to talk about the main heavyweight.
He's a star student, although he was n't exactly treated like a star student today. This is because of the results, and it's not just about them , but also about the forecasts. Can you share your reaction? What's not to like about this? I think that's my reaction. I think, if you sum it all up after listening to the conference call, and I listened to it yesterday during the trip.
Well, I listened to the opening part of it. They are no longer just tool suppliers. These are the tools, the land, the subway, and everything in general . And I think this is a stock that is hard not to have in your portfolio. If you decide to fight this action, you will be very dissatisfied. So I always ask myself: are you ready to play for relegation?
And the answer is definitely "no". Mhm. It's like Mike Tyson , right? Yes, you're getting in the ring with Mike Tyson. So, there are quite a few such companies. This is a boom, and I know many people are resisting it. We discuss, you know, a lot of concerns about cyclical financing, right? They mentioned this during the call, which I think was a relief to a lot of investors.
I don't think that solved the issue for those who think it's a problem, but at least they said it. And I'm glad to see that the stock has gone up since then. You say that the fundamental background remains favorable for equity markets. And you do n't just mean profit growth. You point to consumers, the unemployment rate.
We just received new unemployment data. They are still holding in the 200,000 range on a weekly basis. And also huge amounts of money directed towards investments in AI. Are there any risks that worry you even a little? There are always risks. Yes. I think the debt markets are the biggest problem, we see the Treasury increasing its borrowing.
I think this is too big an offer. This is not a problem of central bank discipline. This is a supply problem. Hyperscalers alone are expected to issue $250 billion in investment-grade bonds. Of course, the Ministry of Finance conducts its operations every week. So there really is a lot of debt. And I think we're in the midst of the summer vacation season right now.
And, perhaps, the decision of the Ministry of Finance was somehow related to this. Providing some liquidity in a market where there is currently little of it. When we come back after Labor Day, I think the world will look a little different. But credit default swaps on Broadcom and Nvidia are still expanding.
And I think that indicates a limited appetite in the short term. In the long run, I think they will be able to accommodate everything, but you can't accommodate everything in 1 or 2 months. So, this will have to be done a little slower. You say you can't fit everything into 1 or 2 months, but do you think that's because everyone is trying to make it to the midterm elections?
Even considering the companies' plans to go public, Anthropic is expected to do so sooner because no one wants to deal with the market chaos surrounding the election. Do you have the impression that everyone is really trying to cram everything into that time? Yes, I understand the general views on elections, seasonality, etc.
I always consider this to be " easy prey" for analysts who are short of topics to discuss. You know, is it really because of seasonality? I understand why this is happening in September, and I understand the election factor. Volatility just increases a little, that's all. After the midterm elections, the data is unambiguous.
The market is getting very, very good. The profitability is solid, right? Over any 3-, 6-, 9- month or year period, and since 1990, it has worked with almost a 100% probability. So I don't know how long you want to stay away. And the most common theme this year was that the “trading pain” strategy worked.
You just have to define it. So, where is everyone trying to squeeze in now? And you can take the opposite position. In my opinion, it is most likely cash. And you probably have too much cash. So when you get a report like that from Nvidia, and tomorrow is going to be quiet or worse, I think the market seems to be looking for an excuse.
He seems to be looking for approval to move forward and grow. And I think that will probably happen in September, which is usually quite difficult. In other words, what is the "yes" factor here ? You have a few ideas for individual company names. You like A net. This is more than 50% since the beginning of the year.
This is, to be honest , year after year. You like Snowflake and Palo Alto Networks. Now she has had a big jump lately . It's not like—I mean, over 80% since the beginning of the year, but a lot of this movement has happened recently. Let's start with A net. Why do you like her now? I like Arista and Cisco.
OK. And they—I mean , Cisco also benefits from what's happening in the campus networking business. They all need updating . This equipment, you know, is already past the expiration date of their service agreements, and people have been putting it off during the pandemic and so on . So I think that's their big strength .
Of course, Arista is a leader in switching and switching equipment inside data centers. They both benefit from scaling, which I think is helpful if people are worried or there is a “not in my backyard” political backlash against data centers. You can still improve the efficiency of your existing computing power by connecting data centers together .
So, there are probably less than a million data center interconnect (DCI) ports in total. This will grow rapidly over the next 4 years. So by the end of the decade there will probably be 20, 30, 40 million ports. And this is just a huge TAM opportunity for manufacturers of such switches. This is Jericho-type switching equipment, based on Broadcom or Marvell chips , and Cisco and Arista are the leaders in this field .
And now Snowflake, what is your opinion on why it still has potential for growth? There is a whole group of programmatic actions that seem to be created for the conclusion economy. Snowflake is one of them, perhaps even at the very top of the list. We also highlighted Twilio based on its second quarter results, as well as, surprisingly, Shopify.
I know. That, I mean, that surprised me. Yes, not that you chose it, but rather their latest earnings reports. It was madness. You know, it's just involvement. Their Sidekick platform grew 3.6x year-over-year in the second quarter. So these figures just skyrocketed. Shopify, Twilio, Cloudflare. Yes.
Cloudflare added 2 million new developers in the second quarter alone. In 2025, they attracted one and a half million. These promotions are very interesting to me . And moving forward, I think the next earnings reports for these companies are very important. Now let's move on to Palo Alto Networks. We are, of course, keeping a close eye on cybersecurity today through CrowdStrike and Okta.
But Palo Alto, tell us about your views on this company. Palo Alto is the first security company to bring it all together . They have every element of it. So, it's a platform, and we're increasingly seeing customers wanting to own this platform. They want to use this exact approach to the platform. Um, the dynamics, as far as I understand, this quarter is simply incredible, and this is not taken into account in the company's forecasts.
So when they report next week, I think on the 1st, I think they will raise their 2026 figures and present 2027 figures that will be significantly higher than current investor expectations. Well, if CrowdStrike and Okta are any indication, we can certainly expect high demand there. Yes. We'll have to finish this in a while.
Thank you, Andrew. Thanks for the conversation, as always. It was Andrew Graham. He's a managing partner at Jackson Square Capital, joining us here at the New York Stock Exchange.
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