저자: Orca · 외국인
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SOXL(3배 레버리지 반도체 ETF)의 과거 연평균 수익률(약 68%)과 10년 복리 효과를 강조하며 장기 적립 투자를 권유함. 반도체 수요 증가(인구 증가, 신흥국 중산층화, 전기차·AI 등)를 근거로 제시하고 반도체 업종의 장기 성장을 낙관. 다만 개별주 비중이 높아 포트폴리오를 이상형에 가깝게 조정할 계획을 밝힘. 영상 기준 2021년 12월 데이터.
다듬은 글
Hello, I'm Orca, and I have an obligation to compete with fellow countrymen. Today's topic is the destructive power of SOXL, a 3x leveraged ETF that shortens the average annual return of 68% to over 10 years, and the true nature of the devilish semiconductor 3x bull. I would like to present this to people like you.
It seems that you are aiming for Fire, love leveraged ETFs, and it is recommended for those who want to get rich as quickly as possible. Let me briefly introduce this channel. This channel aims to escape from being a corporate slave in the shortest possible time by a low-level factory worker who is aiming for the land of freedom called Fire, together with viewers, using the principles of labor-intensive investment.
The profile of Orca is as above. Check it out to see if you like it. As of December 2021, total assets are: salary of 266,000 yen, bonus of 550,000 yen, side job income of 51,000 yen, and painting assets of 1,773,000 yen. The ideal portfolio and the current portfolio are It's so far from ideal, so I'm planning to invest funds to get closer to this ideal portfolio in the future.
But even so, the proportion of individual stocks is too high, so I'll continue to provide useful information, so please subscribe to the channel and click this notification button to wait. Now, let's get to the main topic. First of all, it's about using XL instead of s. It 's one of the products called an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
It's an investment trust that can be traded directly on large exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange, and it's called the Direction Daily Semiconductor Stock Blues 3x ETF. This product is an ETF that aims to track three times the price movement of the IC Semiconductor Index stock price index.
The IC Semiconductor Index is an index of 30 semiconductor-related companies. Initially it was the SOX Index Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, but it changed to the IC Semiconductor Index on August 25, 2021. So, you might be wondering if it should be ICL instead of XL instead of s. Anyway, this Here are the top 10 stocks in the IC Semiconductor Index.
These are all top-tier, well-known companies. Here is the breakdown; this is as of December 2021, quoted from Direction Inc.'s website. Next, let's look at the chart. This chart covers the period from 2010 to December 2021, and its performance is an incredible 1000% or more. The average performance from 2011 to 2021 is an average annual return of 68%, which is truly terrifying.
If you were to invest 50,000 yen every month for 10 years in this disruptive ETF, OSOXL, your investment would be worth a whopping 650 million yen. Furthermore, even if you invested 100,000 yen in a lump sum and left it for 10 years, your investment would still be worth 20,000 yen, meaning you could clear the 20 million yen retirement fund problem in just 10 years with only 100,000 yen.
To briefly explain semiconductors, they are considered the "rice" of industry and are included in various products. This refers to transistors and IC chips. The most familiar examples for everyone are the electronic components in your home, such as smartphones and personal computers, which contain semiconductors like CPUs and GPUs.
In smartphones, famous examples include the ultra-small electronic modules and chipsets called Snapdragon from semiconductor manufacturer Qualcomm. In personal computers, examples include Intel 's Core Series 8 CPUs and GPUs from AMD, and Nvidia's GPU graphics cards. Broadcom 's Wi-Fi modules and Bluetooth chips also incorporate components like Joules.
The US semiconductor industry is a major player in this field, and let's look at the top 15 companies in the world in terms of semiconductor market share. As you all know, Intel is included, and other excellent companies are also listed, but the companies included in the SOXL index are: 1st place Intel, 3rd place TSMC Micron Technology, 6th place Qualcomm, 7th place Broadcom, 8th place Nvidia, 9th place Texas Instruments, and 15th place AMD.
These are top-class semiconductor companies in the SOXL index. 4. It's included in the numbers, isn't it? In fact, TSMC, which is said to be at the top of the fabless companies of major semiconductor manufacturers, is ranked 10th, Infineon Technologies is ranked 11th, and MediaTech is ranked 13th, and they also make semiconductors for Apple, so it's no exaggeration to say that they cover almost all of the world.
You might be wondering if there will be demand for semiconductors in the future, so there is an organization called Semi, which supports American semiconductor companies, and here is a graph of future semiconductor demand that this organization has published. The value of semiconductor shipments decreased for a while due to the COVID shock, but it has recovered rapidly since then, and you can see that the value of shipments will increase by $20 billion to $30 billion each year until 2024.
Next is this graph. This graph is a graph of the state of the global semiconductor market shipment value published by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicts that the semiconductor market, which was on the scale of 50 trillion yen in 2020, will reach a scale of 100 trillion yen in 2030.
It will double in 10 years. That's more than double! What I want you to pay attention to here is the increase in shipment value from 2010 to 2020. This was when smartphones were becoming widespread, and shipment value increased by about 16 trillion yen. Here's how the SO XL chart compared to this increase: On March 10, 2010, it was $40.64.
But on February 12, 2020, about 10 years later, before the COVID-19 shock, it had risen to a whopping $201.1! If you simply calculate the rate of increase, it's a whopping 33 times! With just this small increase, it's a 33-fold increase! This means that the rate of increase from 2021 to 2030 will be even more substantial, and you can roughly imagine a future where SO XL will unleash a bombardment of growth.
This is so surprising that even Savannah's CEO, not Savannah, but M-Platforms' CEO, McZuckerberg, and Savannah's Takahashi were surprised when they heard about it. And yet, SO XL is still... For those wondering if it will really rise, let's take a look at the performance of individual stocks next. Intel, which is in the top 10 of the IC semiconductor index, is booming, MP is Deacon, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Microchip, CKA Corporation, PIT FM, and Applied Materials.
This is a graph of sales growth rates extracted from the financial statements of a total of 12 stocks. Intel is flat or slightly increasing, but all the other stocks are growing steadily. The ones that are growing particularly remarkably are Nvidia, Analog Devices, Advanced Micro, and BY-CTSMS. These 6 stocks are full of rapidly growing semiconductor stocks, so you can diversify your investment.
The SOXL is a devil's strongest index, and it's pretty crazy, isn't it? From a detached perspective, I think this rebound will accelerate even more. This is because there are two points besides the development of electric vehicles and the development of high technology. I think the first thing is that the world population continues to grow, and the second is that emerging countries are transforming into developed countries.
Regarding the world population, as of December 2021, it is said that the world population is a little over 7.8 billion, but it is predicted that this will reach a staggering 9.3 billion by 2050. Some experts even predict that it will easily exceed 10 billion. I think that this continued growth in the world population is also a tailwind for the soaring semiconductor stock prices.
Next, regarding emerging countries becoming developed countries, in 2010 there were many poor people, but with the development of the times, emerging countries have become developed countries, the poor have become the middle class, and eventually risen to the top of the wealthy class. To explain how this affects the development of semiconductors in an easy-to-understand way, if you give a smartphone to a child born from now on, they will adapt to it and start using it right away, but if you give a smartphone to grandparents from the flip-phone generation who know nothing about smartphones, they will not know how to use it at all.
There is n't one, but the 30s and 40s generation who are heavily using smartphones will still be heavily supporting smartphones even when they become old in 30 years, because they've been using them up until now. That's because they've lived through that era, and as a result, new generations are also starting to use smartphones one after another, and even the older generation who have been using smartphones will continue to use them.
So the demand for smartphones will accelerate more than ever before. This is true not only for smartphones, but also for the development of automobiles and other high-tech things in the future. When we talk about the poor and emerging countries, as times change, they will have more disposable income, they will start going out, they will be able to buy what they want, they will start to use smartphones, and they will start to drive Teslas around town.
Then they will buy houses, and it is expected that the country will develop more and more. In that case, the biggest demand will be for semiconductors. This is a tailwind for the rise in demand for semiconductors. Finally, I will say the most important thing in this video. Electric vehicles Even if it becomes widespread, even if self-driving cars become possible, even if metaplatforms develop the metaverse, even if smart glasses become widespread, even if the metaverse develops and massive data centers become necessary, even if AI takes over collective sound, even if part-time workers are replaced by robots, even if smart factories eliminate the need for human labor, even if 3D printing develops tremendously and anything can be made, even if the space industry develops and Mars colonization becomes possible, even if Elon Musk launches artificial satellites with the SpaceX project and mobile communication becomes possible anywhere in the world, even if 6G appears after 5G, even if IoT develops and the internet becomes connected everywhere, even if everything can be controlled with Google Forms, all that is needed in all of it is a semiconductor handle, yes semiconductor semiconductor semiconductor reaction recoil To be honest, to put it in Barry's style, the important thing is diversification, so the portfolio I'm aiming for is 40% Nasdaq, 30% SOX to increase the proportion of semiconductors which I think will be important in the future, and 20% India as an ETF to extend into countries other than the US and other countries.
The remaining 20% is individual stocks for fun. I will be uploading videos about this India ETF in the future, so please do n't miss it. Thank you for watching until the end. This video was about holding SOX with incredible grip strength. In order for everyone to be able to make huge profits with peace of mind, I will be uploading more videos about leveraged ETFs, mainly Nasdaq, so please subscribe to the channel. And now, here's the music.
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