저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 대형 임대업체들이 주택 매수를 줄이고 매도 전환 중이라 부동산 조정이 올 수 있다고 주장. 연준 금리인하는 느리고 장기 고금리 우려가 있으나 빅테크(메가캡)는 상대적으로 유리하다는 TS Lombard 인용. 원유 급등은 공급 요인 위주라 일시적일 수 있으며 헤지펀드 쏠림을 경계. 정부 셧다운 가능성 언급. 마이크로닷 POST는 현금 소진 우려로 부정적.
다듬은 글
is the real estate crash here is inflation coming back what is Apple's disaster what's going on with matterport stock is a Donald Trump going to debate the next Republican debate coming up soon and what about reaction to the FED are rates ever going to come back down let's talk about all this and More in today's bottom line report today's report is brought to you by the brand new Noob verse Pro crash courses on specific subjects you all have been asking for go to meet kevin.com to learn more about these specific crash courses releasing soon as they release the pricing will be higher so check them out as some of them are starting for just 79 now as crash courses check those out again at me kevin.com America's biggest landlord apparently is now struggling to find properties to buy this is a pretty big surprise for a lot of folks and it might be an indication of what's to come because some of these big landlords are actually starting to dump and what that could mean for us in terms of a real estate reset well let's just say it could get juicy let's take a look at this piece from The Wall Street Journal which goes deep on America's biggest landlord Invitation Homes and American homes for rent are some of the largest landlords in America and they are lamenting that they are having trouble finding homes to buy they say quote we write hundreds of offers every week at price points that we'd be willing to transact at Invitation Homes a chief executive Dallas Tanner told investors this summer but we're striking out quite a bit landlords with a thousand Properties or more accounted for point four percent of Home purchases during the second quarter that's down from 2.4 percent in 2021 in other words these Mega landlords are buying less of the homes that are actually transacting and part of that could be because prices are so high but it's not just that prices are high right now it's also that some of these companies are starting to actually dump real estate and this creates something really interesting for about a year and a half I've been warning that the real estate market is going to face pain when we start seeing institutions dump real estate because it's not going to be mom and pop 30-year fixed rate mortgage owners who are dumping their real estate with this locked in a sub three percent rate it's institutions who have to free up their Capital because it doesn't make sense to own real estate at a four percent cap rate when you could get a money market fund paying you five and a half percent these companies aren't billed to try to make money during these times they're built to make money during the easy times they're not billed for the hard times where buying wedge deals is what creates profit for them it's not what these companies are built for unlike my real estate startup which of course you could read the prospectus on and learn more about at healthsack.com since we're not fundraising but Invitation Homes owns about 83 000 homes and listen to this they've been actively selling homes that have appreciated at the point where the properties are now yielding less than four percent and instead what they're doing is they're selling these properties and they're throwing the cash in the bank they've also started buying properties from other institutions at a discount off of what those companies bought the homes for in 2021 and Invitation Homes just bought 1870 homes from Starwood real estate trust a company that's now upside down on those homes they've speculated on during the bubble in 2021 and Invitation Homes is trying to pick him up cheaper but I'll tell you if it weren't for those 1870 homes Invitation Homes would have actually sold more homes than they ended up buying that's because they added just 470 houses in 2023 so far and they sold 675.
that means they would have been net sellers had it not been for that Starwood acquisition American homes for rent is also becoming a net seller look at this they were a net seller during the first half of 2023 selling nearly 1100 homes while adding just about 780. most of them newly built homes many of those that they're building themselves in markets where they can still so get higher cap rates now some of these markets are seen as risk here which is why they often go for newer Built Homes so they can minimize their risk areas like Pittsburgh Cleveland Cincinnati New Orleans Chicago Detroit they're still sitting around these six to seven caps because you're usually trading with higher poverty and you're taking on more eviction risk in other words you're going for a riskier potentially low or Quality Property trying to offset that with newer construction to squeeze out some yield but you're really sacrificing quality Properties by doing that potentially some argue what's fascinating though is the takeaway from all of this is that when institutions are starting to sell you might be getting closer to the point where blood is starting to flow in the streets and I believe that's where some of the juiciest real estate deals can be bought potentially this winter will see exactly that more institutions becoming net sellers especially as things get tougher in the winter time usually the only people who have to sell in November December are not the choice movers who are you know trying to upgrade their home or move closer to their childhood schools is people who have to sell because they're getting squeezed out as in an institution is getting squeezed out an Airbnb Speculator is getting squeezed out somebody who's speculated thinking they'd be quickly able to refinance as rates come down they get squeezed out these are people who are going to have to sell they won't be able to make the payments anymore and they create a great opportunity for you to go by or for us to buy over at house hack anyway pay attention to the real estate market because there's definitely some pain coming to the real estate market next what's going on with inflation well thenx just reported that package prices were actually down about two percent in the last quarter and they picked up about 400 000 packages versus a worth of volume from the yellow bankruptcy and the UPS strike drama FedEx also says thanks to a reduction in costs their profit beat and their profit expectations going forward are expected to continue to beat this is something that's very exciting for FedEx because they're really telling the world hey look prices are going down for packages but we're able to produce more profit because we're running the ship stronger and more uh efficiently this is leading FedEx stock to move about six percent in pre-market to the upside which is quite exciting but take a look at what's going on with the inflationary Trends in something that's been pretty inflationary Pet Foods yeah head Foods Pet Foods now facing potentially lower prices look at this pet owners resort to cheaper food as inflation weighs on wallets pet food is typically one of the last places that people go to save money and guess what folks it's finally happening first it starts with discretionary purchases for pets like buying less toys which are usually high margin pet items then even though pet food is up 11 from a year ago we're finally starting to see premium dry dog food losing share at an accelerating rate down 2.9 percentage points in just the last three months ended July compared to a year ago you're starting to see dis and deflation this is good this is one of the last holdouts to kind of get prices down for goods or at least the rate of inflation down that's what we need we need to see this spread throughout every level I remember last year a course member actually sent me a message and said hey I run a pet supply store in Vegas and we're still seeing price increases and thought okay when that turns it'll be a sign that we're starting to get towards the end of the cycle and here's a Wall Street Journal piece telling us that at inflation is actually here or that deflation disinflation rather right that that disinflation is finally turning and some of those leftover categories now obviously we still have work to do we have a fed that's convinced we need to be higher potentially forever and that's leading to some nervousness in markets in fact quite literally there is an article now in the Wall Street Journal talking about higher interest rates not for longer but potentially forever yes that's literally the article title here and that's because now you have a fad that potentially is signaling Hey look we don't really know what's going on we're creating these projections based on what people think uh which are 20 Bank presidents and voting members combined they throw their little estimates and Dot plots down whatever but they're not even all voting members so this whole Dot Plot and SCP projections thing it's all fine and dandy but what really matters is what's actually happening in the economy and when Jay Powell yesterday was asked well what's actually happening then like what are we going to do he basically told us I don't really know soft landing's the goal but it's not the base case so we'll just play it by ear and three months of disinflating data doesn't make a trend so we'll just take it one step at a time and so obviously that led the treasury market to sell off once again which the treasury Market's already been facing a supply issue right you've got the government borrowing so much money what do they do they then have more treasury bonds available you not only have the government offering more treasury bonds available debt rising over 33 trillion dollars now we added a trillion dollars of debt in just 30 in the last 30 days it's remarkable but beyond that you've got the Federal Reserve dumping treasury bonds via quantitative tightening it's the opposite of QE right and you've got low appetite for bonds because every time somebody buys bonds yields just end up going up even higher and as yields go up even higher your bond values lose principal value it's too risky to be in bonds so just go buy money markets at five five and a half percent it's crazy 10-year treasury right now 4.43 that's insane it is the highest we've seen in this entire cycle and guess what that ends up doing drives mortgage rates over eight percent yeah you have a 740 credit score today they will be over eight percent scary so what about the idea about higher interest rates not just for longer but maybe forever here it is on Wednesday fed officials surprise the markets by signaling interest rates won't fall as much as previously planned consider that they're only expecting rates to fall and this is kind of the scary thing right they're only expecting rates to fall to 5.1 percent by the end of next year that is by the end of 2024.
they're only expecting rates to go down to 5.1 percent that's like nothing that's basically like not even cutting at all I mean the market expects rates to go down to 4.7 percent but basically no Cuts then a year after that the end of 2025 maybe we get down to 3.9 and then maybe by 2026 we get down to 2.9 in other words you literally are cutting at a rate of only 0.08 per month over the next 28 months think about that for a moment I think we literally Overlook how blatantly slow the current projections are the current projections are that over the next 28 months we will cut rates by about 2.5 2 to 2.4 percent works out to roughly 0.08 percent of cuts per month in other words to get one full percentage point one full percentage point a hundred basis points divided by eight basis points of cuts is over a year to get down one percent and this is exactly why now you've got stories like this here in the Wall Street Journal suggesting uh oh maybe rates are going to stay high for a very long period of time to some extent people believe that maybe this is just talk that is maybe the FED is just trying to talk inflation into the grave for sure after all j-pal finally rolled and said it people hate inflation and we need to make sure that inflation goes away forever and so by doing that we just keep talking that rates are going to stay high until we're convinced inflation is gone and then we can always rapidly cut and so that's the premise behind this idea that maybe the neutral rate is higher and we need to force rates down uh or of course inflation down by having a higher rate path for much longer this is problematic though because a lot of people are like wait does that mean the stock market is going to suffer I mean think about it if rates are going to stay high this long and rates are only going to fall at a slow pace then is there potentially a risk to the stock market in such a slow move down with rates well TS lawn board actually thinks no not necessarily in fact listen to what TS longboard and they're usually the Bears okay generally the Bears listen to what TS Lombard thinks is actually the best for risk assets like stocks look at this here's a piece from TS Lombard out right after the FED meeting so it incorporates news from the FED meeting and I want to jump right to an important segment right here look at this we are not yet in danger of undoing 12 months of disinflationary progress despite what's going on with oil right okay good that's great but what about this here A recession with deep Cuts would end up leading risk assets to struggle so they're arguing that if we end up getting a recession where the FED has to panic cut that's what you're going to see pain and risk assets because that's when you're likely going to see bankruptcies that's when you're going to see earnings crash that's when you're going to see layoffs that's when you're going to see real pain even though we might want those big cuts because it means yay cheap money again it would come on the back of a lot of earnings pain and it's actually not what you want so be careful what you wish for the idea of we want big cuts maybe the opposite of what we actually want as investors TS Lombard they're the Bears folks and what do they argue they say the following gradual Cuts intended to normalize would support risk assets in the near term as well as an fx cover rally this is more for the year foreign exchange uh Traders but point of this TS lumbar piece here what's so fascinating is that this idea that maybe just maybe the reason the Nike Swoosh is playing out the reason even the bear Morgan Stanley Mike Wilson Morgan saying is Mike Wilson says wow Mega caps might do great is because Mega caps give you less of an opportunity cost right if you're sitting in Money Market funds you potentially miss out on markets going up right so Mega caps and the big growth stocks and the big tech stocks and the NASDAQ stocks whatever they give you less opportunity cost risk because you're exposed to the market so in theory you don't have an opportunity cost risk okay so they give you less of that but what else do they give you well in the event that you go into a recession and risk assets get hurt the biggest companies will be most likely to survive but if you don't go into a recession they're also most likely to succeed in this winner take all environment that we're in they have the lowest borrowing costs they're borrowing like Microsoft around three percent while they're reinvesting their cash at five to five and a half percent it's insane at the same time they're the ones probably most primed to benefit from the artificial intelligence Revolution because they have the money to spend on capex to capitalize on the actual efficiencies of artificial intelligence versus every American Consumer who's like uh open AI whatever man I'm just trying to pay the gas bills it's crazy it's a crazy environment that we're in that the Bears are literally now coming out and saying yeah you know maybe this like slow cutting phase is actually exactly what you want for risk assets because it just aligns with the Nike Swoosh recovery that Kevin's been taught they may as well just say me Kevin's been talking about this forever Nike Swoosh recovery yes he's also been saying it's gonna be volatile a volatile Nike solution ever promised it was all just gonna go straight up although honestly if you look at the week if you just look at the NASDAQ on the basis of a weak chart it feels almost like it's just gone straight up so a little volatility is maybe the price to pay for some of the gloriousness that's been occurring but anyway take a look at this break evens we know that break evens have risen I've been complaining about break evens Rising The Five-Year break even up the five-year forward break even up they did fall after Jay Pal's Hawking but what do we know about the five-year Break Even well one big thing that we know is that at least according to T.S Lombard they have not risen as aggressively as you would think based on the rise in Energy prices specifically oil this is a fancy way of saying hey look ordinarily when you have oil prices spiking the way they have about 30 percent over the last quarter and hedge funds going all in on freaking oil right now ordinarily you would see a much larger move towards well breakeven's going up you would see fear you would almost see uncertainty priced into these break evens but you're not seeing that not only are you not seeing that but you're seeing Jay pow who's looking at the break evens going up and he literally said that I quote even financial markets are just inflation expectations remain well anchored that's powerful very very powerful it's almost as powerful as being able to say that you can get access to a crash course on a very specific topic like sales or buying your first home or renovating or stocks for as little as 79 bucks fundamental analysis really really good those don't include live stream access but you can bundle in live stream access but they give you really good crash course material it'll all be brand spanking new material so if you want to bundle up with the profit portal which is all of our existing courses or you have questions send us an email at staff at mekevin.com remember how I was saying that hedge funds are going all in on oil right now it's the trade it's kind of like when shorting Tesla was the trade we want to know what's kind of crazy though look at hedge fund allocation on oil you ready for this should not come as a surprise to you hedge funds are plowing into oil they are going oil baby and everybody's estimating that that's it oil's gonna go to the Moon why is oil gonna go to the Moon because the edges are in it of course they're publishing bold pieces on oil going to 120 so they can squeeze their profits out of oil be wary of what the hedgies and suits are telling you always be aware of what people's positioning is you should know my positioning I Grant and actively managed ETF it's a transparent ETF for goodness sakes for goodness sakes it literally every single day tells you what the possession I guess I'm blunt about that okay I I realize everyone's got biases but that's okay that's what makes us different but the Nike Swoosh has proven correct so far and I think it's going to keep coming I also think that real estate pain is coming you'll want to buckle up for that real estate pain don't worry so much about this oil trade there's oil trade at the same time as you've got floundering China and a floundering Europe we really think that this oil trade is going to hold probably not in fact even this piece right here suggests it's not economically driven this is driven by supply chain restraints by OPEC plus and trading in other words when you get OPEC plus and Russia saying hey we're all going to cut and then all of a sudden all the hedges plowing going oh well they're going to cut and then they'll all write institutional pieces about oh oil is going to 100.
they traded in that direction and when they dump it it gets rapidly dumped it happens time and time again this is why Jay Powell on our bingo card said literally we are going to look through energy price volatility because this is the crap that happens all the time he said it's a very bad tool for predicting future inflation yes is it going to affect headline inflation who cares it's going to temporarily affect headline inflation nobody said if I show is going to go down in a straight line not a big deal though look at Kroger look at FedEx look at the pet stores look closely at inflation data it is gone it's gone leftovers of it are going away the leftover inflation even Peter Schiff is like yeah inflation's gone and I respect Peter Schiff respectable answer inflation is gone but who really won here well not the American you're still stuck with higher prices that's the argument Peter Schiff makes and he's not wrong he's right the inflation is still here but the actual continuous increase is gone now we've got to talk apple and some more matterport and stock analysis but first a quick tangent on Donald Trump The Wall Street Journal editorial board went as far as suggesting that Donald Trump is afraid to debate that he is ducking exchanges with his competitors who could challenge his record Donald Trump is expected to skip the next debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library here in Simi Valley California which is about 30 minutes away from where I live the debate will be held on the 27th at 9 00 PM Eastern 6 p.m Pacific time I'll be covering it live just like I did in the last time but I want you to know something abou editorial board is basically paid for by Rupert Murdoch Murdoch controls News Corp which owns The Wall Street Journal guess what Murdoch also controls the fox corporation who's running the debate Trump isn't going to and Donald Trump will be instead conducting a rally two union members to once again get media attention while the fox debates go on it's brilliant last time was Tucker Carlson this time it'll be union members during the union strikes of course you can blame Biden he's gonna blame electric vehicles though I think Donald Trump is my opinion I like to be transparent okay y'all have asked for more of my opinion I'm going to tell you when I give you my opinion and I'm going to be as unbiased as possible after that I'll give you my opinion Donald Trump is really going to stop bagging on electric vehicles they're a lot better A lot better range they're not as big of a headache as they used to be and he has started softening he started to say hey just let people have a choice you want a gas car you want electric car that's fine but I think he's making a losing argument slamming on this idea that electric cars are so bad and that you know Biden's only pushing EVS it's true they're pushing EVS but I don't know that it's a winning argument to say that's so bad but anyway that's just my piece you can you chastise me for that let's take a look at the rest of this piece here so the Wall Street Journal editorial board is arguing that Donald Trump should make his stance clear on abortion Donald Trump I actually talked about this a couple days ago I thought had this very well put together argument that is very convincing to people who like Donald Trump he says look here's what I'm going to do I'm going to sit down with people on the left and we're gonna sit down with people all right and we're going to come to a compromise on how many weeks and when you're going to have a solution on abortion a lot of people hear that and they're like hell yeah Trump's gonna solve the problems he's a fantastic salesperson very very smart very very very smart approach you can't alienate anyone like that when you just say I'm gonna solve it it's very smart it is it is a very very smart approach editorial board says he should come out and actually give his position how many weeks is it Mr Trump Donald Trump is also encouraged to give some insight on his tariff and trade policies for example the editorial board here suggests hey you know Trump you've been talking about imposing a 10 tariff on all U.S Imports that's going to cost somewhere around 300 billion dollars a year and potentially lead to some retaliation from other countries what say you about that why don't you come debate that now obviously a lot of Donald Trump supporters are going to say look Trump doesn't need to debate we know what he's like as president and quite frankly how much is he really going to be able to answer in a debate and I actually have to agree with that I actually don't think you're going to get the most color out of Donald Trump in a debate because these debates are all just like little news Snippets clipping that's all these debates really are you get these things answered in an interview that's when you get these done we need to interview Donald Trump petition meet Kevin date of your Donald Trump somebody make it happen anyway I think this is very interesting because Donald Trump was Mr tariff on aluminum steel Chinese Imports when we were talking about tariffs between 10 to 25 percent so he's done this before now something that I do think is very interesting is you have uh some talk about these 10 tariffs potentially being costly not just because of the fact that it will make things more expensive given that we've got about three trillion dollars of trade to the tune of about 10 so 300 billion dollars a year somebody has to pay for that but the tax foundation for example and they're super anti this idea by the way of a 10 tariff a lot of economists don't like tariffs because there's always deadweight loss here but anyway what they argue is that not only would we Face inflation higher prices but that we would actually hit our GDP because of the response we would end up getting from foreign governments they expect that a 10 tariff on All Imports would reduce US GDP by 0.7 percent and eliminate 505 000 full-time jobs now of course this is a protectionist policy When Donald Trump says I am going to do a 10 tariff and we're gonna have a shield around America what he's saying is we're going to invest in America we're going to make America more competitive by making other stuff more expensive like Chinese Goods more expensive and to some extent there could be a way to argue that this is functional and I'm going to show you how this could be functional but first let me give you the bear piece the bear case on this is negative point seven percent to GDP and a loss of 505 000 jobs that's the bear piece right here but it's not just that after all of the retaliation that we might get from foreign governments we might further reduce GDP another 0.4 percent and eliminate another 322 000 jobs this means potentially eliminating over 825 000 jobs and shrinking the economy by about 1.1 percent in other words they're going as far as saying maybe Donald Trump could literally push us into a recession if he went for this 10 cut okay uh or ten percent tariff I should say the bank of England by the way just left rates unchanged after they're lower than expected inflation read so keep that uh keep an eye on some news coming out from the bank of England and this idea that maybe maybe the central banks are going to talk tough but they're all secretly at Peak levels uh anyway okay so this is the bear piece on Donald Trump right so what is potentially a positive argument on this since I do want to give both sides of this okay so this the other flip side argument of this is actually written by somebody you wouldn't think would write this it's actually coming from the left and what professors and economists from the left are arguing is that a 301 Authority allowing Donald Trump to potentially unilaterally Institute uh these these tariffs could end up leading anyone close to America to benefit while punishing anyone outside the circle think about it kind of like the circle of trust you remember Meet the Fockers and Meet the Parents the movie was great okay Robert De Niro there's a circle and you're either in it or you're not so think about it like this circle of trust here's the circle here's you China and let's bring in anybody we want Mexico come on in Canada come on in did you know that if you combine trade between Mexico and Canada you actually have almost three times as much trade between America Mexico and Canada as you do between America and China how crazy is that most people don't realize that or think about that I'll give you the exact numbers here because I think it's worth seeing and then I want to tell you about this circle but let's look at the exact numbers right here so what do we have right here look at this trade with Mexico accounted for 15.4 percent of goods exported and imported by the US just ahead of America's totals with Canada at 15.2 percent we'll add that together what do you get 15.4 plus 15.2 percent that's 30.6 percent where does China sit at 12 so 30.6 divided by 12 is 2.55 times as much trade goes to Canada and Mexico combined with the United States when you compare it to China China amounting just to 12 and again Mexico and Canada amounting to 30.6 it's kind of wild a lot of people like oh we trade so much with China to be surprised actually trade a lot more with our domestic Partners via free trade and this is uh thanks to you know the agreements that we have the alliances that we have between China and Canada but it's actually very interesting because if you go to this meet the fonkers idea you could actually set Donald Trump up with his 10 tariffs to negotiate the winners on the inside of the circle and then Target the pain to countries like China which could be then a tool or even Russia which could then be a tool to limit their ability to maybe invade Taiwan or otherwise listen to this ultimately Donald Trump's plan could result in a new U.S led system of managed trade with terms that are beneficial to the US and its allies while punishing anyone outside the club like China despite the rise of China Hawks and Washington this plan will undoubtedly provoke a big backlash from U.S companies but that never stopped Donald Trump from using America's most powerful trade tools to deliver his campaign promises see look I'm trying my goal is to be unbiased here it's my goal we can be unbiased we can give you both sides of the spectrum that's very very important speaking of the spectrum you know what's on the Spectrum Apple but maybe not with their own modem Wall Street Journal now running this spectacular piece called inside Apple's spectacular failure to build a key part for its new iPhones it's basically a fantastic piece about how Apple has no freaking idea what they're doing with modems that they can build chips like the M2 chips or a17 ships and that these are actually easier to build but modem chips are hard because you need them to work with 2G 3G 4G LTE networks a 5G networks uh and apple chips have been overheating they haven't been able to assemble the the uh experts within uh Apple the employees to actually be able to pull it off back in 2017 Apple's like we're done with you Qualcomm we quote hate your guts is what insiders at Apple say that Apple hates qualcomm's guts that Apple Sued Qualcomm in 2017 they ended up settling this in 2019.
but Apple now capitulated and said you know what we're we've announced a deal that we're actually just going to work with Qualcomm throughout 2026 because we can't get our own act together Apple really wants to profit more from having their own chips in fact when Apple moved to their own M2 chips away from Intel the expectation is that Apple was able to make 75 to 150 more per computer in profit because they had their own in-house chips margin baby that's pricing power that's delicious but they're failing on the modems but you know what maybe that's not so bad because look at this folks those Qualcomm modems apparently are actually really good look at this test and I was actually looking at this quite a bit because I'm like ah do I want the iPhone 15 I don't know you know I've been really complaining about the iPhone 15 and I was comparing the Qualcomm chip in the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 15 and spec Wise It's not obvious that it's any better when you compare the specs it looks like you've got the same bands the same antenna but it is the new dress Super Dragon chip from Qualcomm and when you put it through tests at least speedsmart.net pulled off some tests look at some of the tests they pulled off upload bands you're roughly the same so for those of you like me who are uploading YouTube videos maybe those upload speeds won't be any faster on an iPhone 15 compared to a 14.
they'll definitely be faster compared to an iPhone 13. but look at those download speeds download speeds somewhere up to 24 faster on Verizon you're going to 243 versus 195 megabits down 300 versus 245 T-Mobile 204 versus 178 on 18t those are significant download speed improvements that's actually that's that's kind of tempting that's not the only thing that's kind of tempting uh I'm going to talk about a second thing that's pretty tempting about the iPhone 15.
right after I mentioned did you know that apple apparently stole about 40 of Google Maps business thanks to releasing Apple Maps yeah here's a piece by uh the uh The Insider via or I'm sorry the information via Yahoo finance suggesting that almost two years later we were at 40 of the prior Peak Google insiders talking about the loss to Apple Maps being potentially about 40 percent of Google Maps volumes on uh on cell phones wild shows you the power of Apple but it's not just this folks you know the other thing that I respectfully haven't paid attention to as much as I should have the fact of 3D spatial video now I'm going to show you something that I think is pretty cool about spatial video it's a little nerdy but uh take a look at this clip on spatial video if you don't have the iPhone 15 you're not going to have the ability to record video in spatial video why do you care about this because if you have babies that happen to be born soon because I got twins on the way and who knows maybe more for next year maybe there's something Kevin hasn't talked about yet and you want spatial video of these children maybe not while they're on their way out but you know after when they're born you gotta have the iPhone 15.
it's like remember for a moment what spatial video is here it is this is what it would look like on the Apple Vision Pro you live a memory as if you're right back in the exact moment hey Dad now this is super nerdy but take a look at this this is how they explain to developers what spatial video is and it's an apple provided video and basically they're like hey look at that text that popped up on screen doesn't that actually feel weird like where things are can create depth conflict and depth conflict is something that we have to resolve but basically if you look closely on screen now you can see that the image that is technically the left photo shows more of that flower to the left of that bird's head than the Right image and as they merge these two together you get the feeling of depth it's basically because you have a left eye and a right eye right and therefore you see things slightly differently and that gives you depth perception and now you can mimic that with apple Vision Pro this is really cool and so if you were looking for a reason for the iPhone 15 I don't know that is pretty tempting I don't know what it's gonna actually look like yet I probably want to try it out in the Apple Store the Apple Vision Pro headset isn't out yet anyway but I will say very very very cool Apple the news a pollen is potentially threatening and not to supply weapons to Ukraine anymore but quite frankly they've kind of already given everything that they have in their Arsenal and they're waiting to get resupplied by America so they don't really have anything to gain anyway and this is really just emotional posturing the idea here is that Poland is tired of a Ukraine dumping cheap Grain on European countries and so a lot of European countries have actually been Banning the importation of Ukrainian grain there's a lot of drama going on around this I don't know that any of this is really a massive deal I wanted to address it because I know people are going to ask about it but it is not that big of a deal something to keep an eye on but that's about it it's also worth noting that oil is trading in heavy backwardation right now that basically means that oil futures for the next year are trading well below 90 dollars per barrel anywhere between 88 in January all the way down to 80 next August so you prices where oil are right now or unrealistically high they're not going to last that long you've got a lot of trading going into this this is as we saw with hedge funds a lot of nonsense going into this Beyond this there is actually a real chance we might end up having some more near-term volatility thanks to yeah the potential of revisiting a government shutdown it's not me saying this it's not me trying to be political okay this is straight up from Punchbowl news these folks are pretty dang good at uh you know calling what's going to end up happening and uh let me uh let me give you the Thursday morning briefing here are you ready for this here we go McCarthy gave in to the right he pushed his moderates to follow him and is pursuing a plan that'll be dead on arrival with the Senate and the White House it very well could lead the government to a shutdown on October 1st in fact it may be unavoidable at this point basically here's what McCarthy's going to do he's going to try to pass a stop cap funding bill but a lot of Republicans aren't going to go for this unless it has many cuts to discretionary spending so they're going to give Democrats in the Senate and Joe Biden in the White House a 1.47 trillion dollar level in discretionary spending that's what Republicans are trying to go for Democrats want more money they're also not going to include any Ukrainian money or disaster relief money both of those things are what Democrats want they want Ukrainian money they want disaster relief money even some Republicans are like please provide the Ukrainian money like Lindsey Graham Collins whatever it's not gonna happen so you're gonna have another Showdown then McCarthy's going to be between a rock and a hard place McCarthy's going to have to decide do I actually put something together that Democrats are going to go for because we have a split Congress or do I hold firm remember Donald Trump is really aggressive I wrote this down over here as well McCarthy has it well they wrote McCarthy has a tough decision to make I wrote Trump pressure as well Trump's the guy who's going to be on TV every day going you know I would hold firm I would get America's budget back into balance whether it's true or not we've seen Donald Trump do the hard line I'm not I'm not doing anything until I get my border wall funding and I'll shut the government down I don't care he pulled that off before so we know he's done it now the question is is McCarthy gonna do it is he going to be willing to risk a government shutdown I don't think so I don't think McCarthy will end up pulling that off uh and that's likely going to lead to more Republicans and people like Donald Trump saying things like uh well that's McCarthy for you government shutdown could be on its way so what else is there to talk about well folks I want to be very clear about this I really do believe there are going to be some beautiful opportunities coming up for Real Estate I think house hack as the Vanguard of real estate is going to be extremely well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities and if you're not ready to buy real estate you don't have the cash to buy real estate the credit to buy real estate uh the knowledge to buy real estate consider diversifying your investments from volatile stocks or other Investments take a bit and invest into house hack really excited we've got some new uh tiered benefits as well by the way we're going to be announcing those so if you invest I think the first break is at about 19 600 bucks somewhere right around there uh and then uh 25 000 and then uh I think there's one at seventy thousand and a hundred thousand anyway you'll get some benefits like video shout outs uh you'll uh potentially be able to Shadow us uh for free if you invest a certain amount and come see what we're actually doing with Hal Sac it's uh on the ground no cost to you which is very fun so uh there'll be some really cool benefits but learn more first about how Sac what we're doing what the vision is just go to housseight.com read the prospectus understand the risks involved look at the pitch deck look at the video learn everything about house hack we're really excited about the fundraise that we're doing and we're gonna be closing that fundraise as well uh probably within the next 30 days we'll see it's going very very well so far so thank you to all of you who have invested we've already doubled what we've had people invest the first 24 hours of the first time we raised money last year we've already doubled that in the first 24 hours which is really amazing great vote of confidence so thank you big shout out to all of y'all now before we finish I did promise a brief analysis on matterport so matterport stock is in the toilet I've been out of the stock since January of 2022.
I love matterport as a tool but as a stock it's not that great it might have some more pain ahead of it it's not two bucks and 19 cents right now and so I decided to look at their earnings it's got like a 659 million dollar market cap still too much in my opinion uh and and I think there's still more downside but here's the problem you've got negative cash flow in the last six months you're losing 110 million bucks net cash from operating activities so your free cash flow once you take out plant property and Equipment sitting around negative 33 million dollars for six months this is a lot of money that's that's Vanishing here and where is that money going well when you look at the income statement you see that a lot of money is going to SG a and a lot of that is stock based compensation this company is getting squeezed for stock compensation where they can't even figure out how to make a profitable product yet and it really pisses me off you've got good subscription revenues that's profitable you got 13 million dollars of profit in your subscription revenues but on Services you're barely making money a couple mil product you're losing money and when you factor in the 18.8 million in r d and 56 in SG a what is this this is supporting the livelihoods of Executives and Senior staff at matterport not the actual product it's frustrating to me to see this now balance sheet wise I see why they still have some hope they have over 400 million dollars of cash somewhere around 440 million dollars worth of cash short-term Investments so your cash and cash equivalents they don't have a lot of debt less than 100 bill in short terms and long-term payables therefore they have shareholder Equity of about 551 million dollars a lot of that cash in short-term uh Investments which is great which means they do have the ability to weather the storm for a little bit longer consider if they have negative cash flow of only about 15 million a quarter they can weather the storm for a while and that's a benefit they could go through 26 quarters of losing 15 million dollars of cash flow heck they could just take their entire net loss of 50 mil and at 50 mil if that all came out of cash they could get through two years of cash burn so there is a potential upside in that they have the cash to burn but I'm not convinced that matterport is in a position to end up proving that it can continue to grow to where its revenues will ever offset it's SG A and R D expenses and that will keep the stock compressed because eventually that cash will be gone and if you haven't grown to become profitable by then that's when you start trending towards BK I don't think matterport's going to go BK but they do need to either cut expenses substantially or become a whole lot more profitable and this is not the environment to grow in sorry nobody's no nobody's selling homes there are no transactions it's Rick is cohort you got to get in with the property managers and contractors but I don't even think they're advertising appropriately to them that's always been my suggestion I feel like I want to go in there and take the company by the helm and turn this company around but I don't have the money to Elon Musk this company and fix it but anyway I do have my frustrations about the company and uh I think it just remains an Untouchable for now
Comments 0