저자: Kevin/소속미상 · 외국인
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영국 물가 서프라이즈 하락과 외식 소비 둔화 신호를 언급하며 소비 압박과 유가 상승을 지적. Morgan Stanley Mike Wilson의 대형 성장주 선호 의견 소개. Kroger 실적 기반 소비 스트레스 및 인플레 둔화 전망. 미국 UAW 파업 확산이 자동차 공급망 기업에 영향 가능성 언급. 정부 셧다운·국가부채 우려, AI 칩 수요(엔비디아) 관련 긍정 견해와 AI 소프트웨어 회의론 언급.
다듬은 글
multiple bottom line reports to cover today including what's going on with the consumer what's going on with Amazon and temporary workers a government shutdown Hunter Biden and the United Kingdom's inflation surprise a Kroger's inflation warning and Bays the UAW Tesla an F-35 hack and oh man Morgan Stanley potentially suggests there could be an investment that makes sense Beyond just shorting everything yeah and that is Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson now you might be surprised to see what his suggestion is let's get into that and more in today's bottom line report keep in mind house hack is officially raising money go to househacker.com to learn more about this investment which may only be open for the next two to four weeks as we might sell out a lot sooner than we thought go to househack.com to learn more about our one-to-one share race which is a great opportunity for investors in our opinion make sure to read the prospectus the United Kingdom's inflation metrics that came in at a surprise we were looking at 6.8 percent down from a seven percent last month we ended up getting 6.7 percent putting pressure on the bank of England to potentially pause their interest rate increases part of this drop uh in inflation was due to a drop in Restaurant pricing putting less pressure on consumer prices one of the reasons we might be seeing this decline in consumer prices at restaurants in the United Kingdom is well at least according to Bank of America a Slowdown in restaurant spending Bank of America is warning a monthly decline in well restaurant spending that is greater than what we've usually seen one of the reasons Bank of America is suggesting we might be seeing this decline is less spent on fast casual fast casual decelerating more than expected and turning negative in August one of the reasons they seem to see this decline is when we jump over here we see less spending by those May making over 125 thousand dollars this was actually a really bizarre and we were doing some additional research on this trying to come up with why would those making over a hundred twenty five thousand dollars spend less on fast casual and have a larger drop in restaurants spent in August than others I mean obviously on this chart here you can see this spike in spending on things like doordash and fast casual after covid that makes sense but why all of a sudden are those making over 125 000 spending less one of the reasons I thought potentially a return to the office and readily accessible refrigerators now I know this sounds crazy like wait Kevin's going to tell us about refrigerators think about this for a moment if you're in office at a computer all day long you probably have access to a refrigerator which means you have access to the ability to snack you have access to maybe fruits and vegetables or yogurt smoothies or whatever that you might not have access to if you were let's say a blue collar our construction worker or plumber or an electrician you go pick up your Dunkin Donuts coffee in the morning and then you order doordash for lunch and when you get home the last thing you want to do is cook whereas somebody who's in the office all day long has access to a refrigerator not only is able to snack throughout the day but it's also experiencing inflationary pressures higher gas prices oil up 27 over just the last quarter JP Morgan going as far as calling an oil price shock something that we could be experiencing putting a damper on consumer spending this is a big deal JP Morgan really warning about this and really warning that maybe just maybe this could end up contributing to a GDP decline that the Federal Reserve may not end up looking through in other words the Federal Reserve may say all right well I guess we're going to get a GDP decline thanks to higher oil prices but the inflationary impact is not something we can ignore so guess what hire for longer not great but finishing the thought on restaurants and refrigerators it is possible it is entirely possible that those individuals making under 125 000 a year might be more prone to ordering doordash just because you have less access to a refrigerator just our idea point is though restaurants spend declining consumers under pressure oil prices up yet again continuing on what is Morgan Stanley suggesting despite all of this could actually perform well and specifically Mike Wilson remember Mike Wilson is almost our resident bear who famously flip-flopped about six weeks ago after suggesting the rally in the stock market was exactly what you wanted to sit out for essentially the entire year in all of last year kind of rose to prominence because last year he was right you know anybody who told you to sell last year was kind of doing you a solid well what is Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson suggesting now listen to this thoughts from the road after spending the past week with clients across Europe and obviously in discussions with those in the United States we conclude that sentiment is quite similar to that of the United States many are grappling with uncertainty about the economic cycle however this uncertainty potentially reiterating a bull case for Mega cap growth leadership this is of course because of indexation the more uncertainty you have the more people might end up just throwing money into the S P 500 or the NASDAQ leading to more out performance by Mega caps versus maybe value underperforming in small and mid caps eventually Smalls and mids are expected to catch up but will they right now people seem to be more prone to this sort of decision making of well should I just throw my money into money markets and make five percent on my money or do I invest in stocks remember it's not just five percent that you're getting in your cash though if you do throw money into money markets you are also getting with that opportunity cost and that's the opportunity to lose money in the stock market or hopefully make money in the stock market Kroger is now warning that customers are buying smaller package sizes of products at a time prioritizing the lowest shelf priced items this is in a report of their recent earnings call I went through their entire earnings call yesterday we went through multiple other earnings calls as well in the course member live streams and we saw the same thing happening in fact people are now talking about consolidating when they go shopping for things around holidays like July 4th or Memorial Day rather than just regularly buying the consumers are definitely exhibiting stress so much so that Kroger is saying they're seeing sales ebb and flow with paydays and SNAP benefit distributions a sign that those excess savings are probably gone Kroger expecting economic headwinds to continue pressuring customer spend in the second half of the year and a greater promotional price environment when they were asked about deflation they said in the last 40 years they have not experienced deflation in any time except two years that is out of the last 40 years they've only seen grocery price deflation twice however they said that at the beginning of the year they thought inflation would be around three to four percent guess what they think for inflation now they think that inflation Trends have continued to evolve and that they now expect instead of three to four percent inflation only one to two percent inflation and they expect inflation to continue to decelerate that's bullish for inflation falling still doesn't help the fact that oil is rising leading in the five-year break evens and five-year forward breakevens the Skyrocket recently which hopefully doesn't call for pummeling from Jay pal we'll see FTX has now sued the parents of sandbagmen freed yeah FTX the company in bankruptcy has sued the parents of sambangman free claiming they enrich themselves by siphoning millions of dollars in fraudulently transferred and misappropriated funds that's their warning okay from FTX some of this money potentially going to elicit campaign donations Joseph bankman and Barbara freed get it where Sam bankman free the name comes from the hyphenation anyway Sam Venkman freed whose net worth has a weird hyphen in front of it well his parents are tenured professor professors at Stanford and are now accused of purposely taking money to funnel to their favorite charitable contributions which of course many allege uh are basically all left-leaning institutions and causes although some are saying sandbagment freed donated an equal amount of money to Republicans but did so in Hidden ways or not clear ways because the media just likes the left so if you come across as just a big left owner you get more media attention apparently Joseph bankman allegedly used FTX funds for personal gifts including tickets to Formula One Grand Prix event in France Barbara freed is also accused of donating to her own Super PAC which is known as mind the gap helping Democrats specifically whoops anyway Sam begman freed can enjoy his hyphenated net worth in jail where he belongs for perpetrating one of the greatest frauds that duped so many the director of enface has uh or a director at end face has apparently bought four million dollars worth of shares helping contribute to enface's gain of over four percent yesterday the company has since their last earnings report authorized over one billion dollars in stock BuyBacks and questions are now Rising is Enphase maybe buying the dip on its own stock the dip has been pretty aggressive and may continue until interest rates fall incentivizing that financing of homeowner investments into solar though recently with energy price spikes maybe we'll finally get some good news coming to enface which more and more is trading like well cheap at a peg a ratio basis and face right now is trading under a one peg and I have to say I think from a technical and fundamental basis it is a steal at 120 per share although I have been buying it since under 180 and then backed up the truck around 150 and now I kind of feel like a little bit of a clown that instead of 120.
but you can't be perfect and guess what I still think there's an opportunity though if you were betting on that the downtrend might uh might continue if you don't know we need to lend much like the United Auto Workers well we don't know when the United States strike is going to end but apparently the Canadians have figured it out eh yes Canada has avoided an extension of their version of the strike where 5600 a uniform workers uh or uniform union workers uh were on strike striking simultaneously specifically against a Ford and finally struck a deal to achieve a three-year labor contract the details of which are still TBD but it's giving some hope that hope some people hope that maybe the UAW strike will end in America UAW is threatening to expand its strike come this Friday the president of the UAW is also emphasizing that they are not messing around a lot of supportive comments from both union members and stock traders in my commentary on the UAW yesterday where we clarified that this 66 dollars per hour that people say union members are earning isn't correct but that actually includes this future amortization of all the benefits and pensions or other related benefits profit sharing agreements that UAW members could eventually get we found the commentary a very supportive I encourage you to watch the video yesterday but it's worth noting that it's not just the big three automakers that are getting hit hard here there are at least 76 publicly traded companies that are all getting hit with a potential combined 38 billion dollars of Revenue at risk because of their relations supplying materials and parts to Ford GM and stellantis if this UAW strike continues to expand in this moment I highly encourage the CEOs before GM installantis to get a deal done the last thing we want are more people out of work potentially more layoffs and industries throughout the country now that could end up leading to a j-pal pause or maybe U-turn but it could also not which would mean bad news and bad news which is what nobody wants but we also want individuals to be able to earn a decent living with all the inflation we've now experienced which probably isn't going to go away I don't think we'll face deflation anytime soon because we'll just keep printing our way out of it until that's no longer possible but I think the money printer is still going to work for some time going into the future and it'll be on again soon enough on top of this we now have a talk that Elon musk's Zach kirkhorn in other words the CEO or CFO at Tesla might have ended up leaving relating to investigations into that glass house Elon Musk was potentially building now there are SEC allegations or at least investigations into allegations that back in 2017 Elon Musk was potentially throwing money into project 42 a glass house near Giga Austin and that there's now scrutinization that money was misappropriated from Tesla's EV profits to other pet projects of Elon Musk and if Zach was involved in this some are suggesting Zach raised concerns and then was forced out of the company and that could have potentially explained his sudden departure from Tesla after having amassed nearly a half a billion dollars in wealth while working at Tesla wild allegations keep in mind at Tesla you have 10 days left to transfer full self-driving for free that is if you buy a new Tesla if you need a referral code by the way met kevin.com Tesla but anyway if you buy a new Tesla and you have an old Tesla with FSD you can now transfer it from your old Tesla to your new Tesla for free it's sort of a nice little grace period opportunity to transfer to a new Tesla if you were looking to upgrade keep in mind you also now have a lot and a lot a lot a lot of people making fun of Green Hill Technologies because Dano Dodd's Green Hill Technologies apparently was used in f-35s f-35s now apparently hacked or maybe hacked who knows a lot of allegations now that danodot's software was used in an F-35 that recently crashed after a pilot ejected a lot of folks suggesting that the software may have been hacked leading the pilot to safely eject although he ended up in the hospital afterwards which is not uncommon after ejecting creates a lot of pressure on your spine Springs your spine it's a lot of G's instantly I mean think about somebody putting a bomb under your butt and then getting ejected out of a plane like it seems glorious in movies but it's extremely painful and damaging you could end up having to retire from the Air Force after ejecting in an emergency situation anyway the F-35 which was missing for a while kind of shocking that it could end up going missing was found the debris field was found for him a lot of folks wondering if the software was ultimately hacked leading to the demise of that F-35 potentially signaling to the pilot that things were wrong which may not have otherwise been wrong who knows but the Tesla Community is definitely making fun of Dan o'dodd for this one given his involvement uh well in running the company Green Hill technology which could Supply some autonomous technology to f-35s yet what's also interesting is going all the way back to 2018 we've been talking about f-35s potentially getting hacked listen to this Popular Mechanics wrote a piece talking about how the f-35's greatest vulnerability isn't enemy weapons it's actually getting hacked that the aircraft itself is pretty secure but because of these multiple communication systems that the plane relies on first the autonomatic wait what is is autonomic Logistics information system boy that is a tongue twister a-l-i-s that's a lot easier that needing to communicate with other systems outside other servers outside of the plane and the joint reprogramming Enterprise both of these networking systems and Communications being required to actually operate the plane but requiring data to leave from the plane communicate with another system potentially leaving the plane vulnerable to hacks leading potentially Pilots to believe that they're safe after deploying weapons even though they're not or sending signals to Pilots that there are issues when indeed there are not it isn't clear if the F-35 could be remotely controlled by a hacker somewhere else right now the only thing that we think can be remotely controlled by hackers or apparently MGM room key cards but we really don't need to talk about this Cyber attack that has now gone into its ninth day of people not being able to get into MGM rooms or play in the slots and apparently now Vegas stores offering free lap dances if you are affected by the MGM hack it's crazy I think literally it is a crazy world we live in what's not crazy though is that did you know you can now get into the courses on building your wealth for just 79 we are releasing multiple potentially as many as 20 but for now 10 different micro crash courses High value-packed crash courses that are 79 on pre-sale there's no content in them yet but once the content comes out we expect these courses to double in value as soon as the content releases so that means you have an opportunity now to get into these courses for just 79 their crash course style so they're more value packed in a shorter amount of time than some of the larger courses which might go into more detail and be a lot longer but the idea is that one of value individual's time and if you're looking for a crash course on for example how to buy your first home sales how to negotiate I want to get you caught up to speed quickly with high value content for a now low price of just 79 dollars again we expect that pricing to go up after the pre-sale ends so check tha you can always email us at staff and meet kevin.com by the way that's a good port for me to mention if you have any questions for house hack Make sure to email us at IR househack.com Elon musk's neural link is now recruiting those potentially if afflicted by ALS or quadruplegia for quadriplegic Elon musk's neuralink is looking to help you and potentially the first human trial of neuralink should be quite interesting my heart goes out to anyone affected by these issues and hopefully Elon musk's and oral link can help Amazon is now offering to pay Logistics workers up to 20.50 on average the range being 17 to 28 and offering a workers bonuses of one to three thousand dollars just to go work on Amazon on a temporary basis this is not a bad deal if you're looking for work consider checking out Amazon there's some people scratching their head going wait a minute it's going to cause a wage price buyer oh on the other hand something that is spiraling and indeed spiraling out of control is Congress right now House Republicans are postponing a procedural vote on a 30-day government is a funding bill to basically Kick the Can down the road again since our budget runs out on the 30th of this month keep in mind that also means funding for Ukraine is technically due within the next 10 days Joe Biden expecting to sign another 24 billion dollars of funding for Ukraine Donald Trump freaking out over this on Truth social arguing that why is it the United States has funded more than the European Union combined for Ukraine Donald Trump arguing it's time for the European Union to at least get to par with our funding for Ukraine zelenski wall in Ukraine or wall in Ukraine while in the United Nations arguing that if Donald Trump indeed has a plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours he should go ahead and do the humanitarian good and provide that plan now directly calling on Donald Trump to help end the war although some argue the idea of ending the war where it is right now and just dividing up territories potentially exactly what Russia wants potentially Russia's reasons for barricading itself in minefields and trenches is because they want that oil Rich to vipero and Dinesh territory where 90 of Ukraine's natural gas and oil production comes from maybe that was the plan all along maybe the plan was to wait for another president that'll just say oh let's let's let Ukraine have that little Edge territory over there who knows that is what Vivek ramaswami is calling for right now who has been criticized for his potential radical ideas for not only ending certain domestic uh departments like the FBI or department of education but also for suggesting that we should just pause the war in Ukraine versus Russia and just divide up territory the way it is now leading some to say I don't know is this going to be the right person to get in the presidency or do we risk the biscuit where we already know what we're going to get on either Joe Biden or Donald Trump thinking of Joe Biden oh no the National Archives says it has about 5400 emails that Obama can decide whether or not to approve the release of which may include all of Joe Biden's aliases yeah apparently Joe Biden while he was in office which wasn't uncommon during the Obama Administration used a lot of aliases and guess what one of them is yeah the big guy other aliases potentially including Robert L Peters j.rb Ware and Celtic this did happen during the Obama Administration as well with individuals like Attorney General Eric Holder using nicknames like Lou Alcindor and Lisa Jackson the former EPA administrator using Richard Windsor as her second email account this is weird it doesn't feel right that politicians get to use aliases I don't like that I think it's confusing on purpose now I get it if there's maybe like some uh you know Espionage risk or like uh you know security risk where we don't want you know the Russian intelligence agencies knowing what's going on in our emails although I bet if they're in our emails they probably also know our aliases so it's kind of frustrating it's also frustrating that we're going through this budget shutdown and Showdown again obviously Schumer wants to see disaster relief and Ukraine money in the continuing resolution to Kick the Can down the road McCarthy wants funding as well but he's fighting others says he needs a couple more votes to get some kind of budget resolution pass but he's in this big fight because you've got some Republicans are like look or we're done kicking the can down the road we need cuts when are we ever gonna actually put our pants on start cutting the United States budget deficit grows every single year with the total debt now exceeding 33 trillion dollars we just passed the debt ceiling just under 31 trillion dollars and all of a sudden we went from under 31 trillion to over 33 trillion just a matter of a few months it's definitely definitely hands down an unsustainable path now do I think the dollar is going to collapse tomorrow because of all of us no do I think it's going to collapse within the next 10 years no well eventually the Ponzi of the American dollar end yeah of course eventually all currencies collapse they all do in the meantime if you want to get some more of the dollar FAFSA applications are being delayed until December apparently they're going through an overhaul a new shorter form and it'll take until December for that form to be ready in other news you could just go steal because apparently that's what people in California are doing 20 thieves just stole three hundred thousand dollars worth of handbags security guard was blast in the face with bear spray the LAPD is calling it flash Rob instead of flash mob coming after Glendale uh and also in California just got robbed of four hundred thousand dollars by 30 people in a Flash Rob it's not just California the national retail Federation estimates that shrink has climbed to almost 100 billion dollars this year you could almost fund the war in Ukraine oh look at this coming through the wire right now Russia is speaking of Ukraine Putin Russia's Putin accepts invitation to visit China in October you know as much as the United States is trying to get away from its Reliance on China you realize and The Economist had a great piece on this you realize what's happening is all the other countries around China are just buying the stuff from China and then they're selling it to the United States whether that's Taiwan South Korea or even Mexico just buying Chinese stuff so anytime we try to get away from China we're still getting Chinese stuff can't get away from China anyway National Retail Federation is estimating that mentions of theft and Shrink have doubled in company earnings calls Dick's Sporting Goods blames their missed earnings odd theft and now you have the dollar store complaining that they're going to see another 100 million dollars of increased theft going forward honestly this is just like a human crisis but it's also a criminal justice problem right so you've got a double problem you've got a criminal justice system that's massively flawed but then you've got this human crisis of food and gas and everything being much more expensive and it ain't gonna go down okay Jay Powers is gonna throw the money printer on as soon as we hint at deflation so prices aren't going to go down inflation it's growth might be falling prices ain't gonna go down not If the Fed can stop they'll just print more that's what they did the last 10 years before covet anyway now and this is devastating okay I I hate to hear stuff like this uh but uh it it does it does Jade you quite a bit apparently now you had Ukraine blame a missile strike on Russia that apparently didn't come from Russia it apparently came from Ukraine itself here's the New York Times piece where they show imagery along with interviews and investigations of the site uh showing the the uh the explosion and uh hey look I know it's the times but the times originally did Echo zielinski's claim that this was a Russian strike well apparently it probably wasn't a Russian strike in fact evidence now indicates that the Ukrainian missile that a Ukrainian missile just fell short of its Target it was supposed to fly somewhere around 15 miles and ended up falling after 10 miles killed 15 civilians and injuring more than 30 others New York Times reporters apparently analyzed fragment satellite imagery witness accounts blah blah blah blah Intel originally blamed Russian terrorists and so did zelinski but apparently it was actually Ukrainian missile that malfunctioned for unknown reasons or it's being used as a propaganda tool which is the more jaded and devastating consideration that maybe Ukraine could be conducting some of these strikes or attacks on itself this is super jaded tinfoil had okay but the more you kind of like shoot yourself in the foot the more you're like I need help very very jaded it but I'll tell you I don't know after covid the level of Jade in our society is going up and oftentimes rightfully so listen to this Cliff Sims former deputy deputy director of the National Intelligence service and John Radcliffe who was the former director of the National Intelligence of the United States both just wrote an op-ed and they are reiterating whistleblower claims that the CIA purposefully manipulated covid-19 origin claims to favor the story China was coming up with analysts who initially supported the lab League Theory were apparently paid to change their opinion accusations of a larger Trend within the CAA being politicized regarding China are being cooperated by this op-ed scathing op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today I'm like this this is crazy CAA intelligence analysts being paid off to do political favors I mean quite frankly maybe we should have assumed this but it just seems like every day more and more the Jade level is going up everywhere and again rightfully so apparently this is so common it's literally called conclusion shopping yeah conclusion shopping yeah it'll actually investigate anything anymore just shop for the conclusion you want and then you pay for it on top of that nvidia's uh data center hardware sales in Q2 we're around 10.3 billion dollars right well apparently now an analytics firm called omdia is estimating that Nvidia dispatched 900 tons of h100 processors during the most recent quarter here in 2023 suggesting maybe Nvidia sales might end up beating this is coming at the same time as rumors or that Microsoft might actually be canceling orders for h100s because the AI hype isn't holding up rumor rumors lots of rumors who knows who knows the positioning of these people's stocks anyway uh but anyway I I look I'm a big believer that a lot of the AI software is a fad uh and I've purposely tried staying away from AI software I do still think and I still believe it that the chips are an opportunity TSM AMD Nvidia you know nvidia's price might be a little lofty but the amount of capex that's going to absorb in videos production as long as they can get their hands on these AI chips it's going to explode this is as other chip sales are slowing down as TSM is warm it just doesn't seem to be AI chips that are slowing down anyway we'll see now it's time for the Daily Wealth individuals really enjoy the Daily Wealth emails that we send out check out the link down below to sign up for that and one of the big things that we're seeing a lot of folks have questions about is this idea of how do we make sure our job doesn't get replaced you don't want to be the person in a stone quarry learning how to swing the hammer or the pickaxe the best when you're just going to get replaced by a jackhammer or a tool you don't want to drive a forklift better because you're just going to get replaced by our whole robot instead some jobs that could really insulate you or those jobs that rely on a deep understanding of human psychology this could be things like sales hey we've got a crash course on that nursing Finance real estate law advertising potentially highly insulated and actually benefiting from artificial intelligence Healthcare companies spending a ton of money on AI by the way anyway that does it for if you still appreciate these segments I like them I need as much feedback as you can give me it's obviously very different from what we used to do so I'd like to hear your comments here I feel like nobody
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