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맥도날드 캘리포니아 최저임금 인상(2024.4 시행, 시간당 20달러)이 프랜차이즈 점주 비용을 키워 점포 폐쇄를 부를 수 있다. UAW 파업이 장기화되면 4분기 GDP를 최대 1%p 깎아 2024년 초 경기침체를 자극할 수 있다(Morgan Stanley). 주택시장은 오리건·보이즈·오스틴 등에서 냉각되며 매수를 보류 중이다. 중국 Country Garden 부실과 대만 해협 긴장이 거론됐다. 금리 관련해 과도한 긴축이 인플레이션을 자극할 수 있다는 언급이 있다.
다듬은 글
oh boy there's a lot to cover in today's a bottom line report housing has hit a wall the UAW could single-handedly push us into recession will Donald Trump run for a third term McDonald's could collapse thanks to California and instacart's IPO China Tesla and more let's get started first McDonald's assembly Bill 1228 in California just past the state senate and heads to newsom's desk for Signature who is expected to sign it this will include a wage a floor at 20 of per hour for every chain with at least 60 locations wage increases would take effect April 1st of 2024 and no that's not a joke that is four dollars and fifty cents higher than the state's minimum wage for working at a fast food establishment the danger here according to the National Owners Association which represents franchise owners is that each franchise could end up experiencing around 200 fifty thousand dollars more in costs and suggests that many McDonald's may end up having to close as they can't afford this remember most of McDonald's profits their corporate profits don't actually come from selling you food they come from selling you the brand and the real estate via an owner who decides to become an entrepreneur and run the business as a franchise here it is directly from McDonald's investor relation statement on franchise Revenue McDonald's brings in 84 profit margins on the actual restaurants that McDonald's operates they only bring in 16 profit in plain English that means about 90 cents of every dollar of operating income McDonald's has comes from the franchise model not from actually selling you food they sell the stuff to entrepreneurs who run the franchise those are the folks who are going to have to pay the higher wages on two the UAW who is also pushing for higher wages the United Auto Workers Union could literally push us into a recession at least that's what Morgan Stanley thinks take a look at this research Oregon Stanley researchers just outlined that at this point only and this is a big only but a quote unquote only 13 000 of the 146 000 union workers that are part of the UAW are on strike but Morgan Stanley argues the impact to economic activity could be large if we see a full scale strike that lasts for some time the effect of the strike could be visible in industrial production but most importantly end up hitting GDP of course this will end up hitting non-farm payrolls if we end up seeing these striking workers show up as unemployed for a longer period of time and that could really weaken the Biden administration's claims that Biden Comics are really working hard especially since we would see a spike in unemployment in other words we'd see the unemployment rate rise and the number of jobs created a fall but take a look at this and this is quite important there could be a noticeable fourth quarter drag on gross domestic product if this strike continues specifically consider this comparison to 2019.
in 2019 a limited strike of quote 48 000 workers which then represented about 24 percent of vehicle production at the time took place in mid-september and lasted through October that's about six weeks at the time we had to take about 0.4 percentage points off GDP for the fourth quarter now though if the entire 146 000 union members of the UAW end up striking which has been threatened the impact could end up creating a full one percentage Point hit to gross domestic product in America well folks remember when GDP goes negative for two quarters in a row you're in a recession again we had that q1 22 q22 we all felt that whether that was technically a recession or not whatever what's more important though is going forward listen to this her current forecast is for a just 0.1 percent fourth quarter GP read if you subtract off of that one percent thanks to a strike you could literally be sitting at negative one percent for the fourth quarter in 2023.
now that's not expected to pull the entire year into a recession but it is absolutely expected to set up for a recession with Q4 and q1 2024 combined unless this strike resolves itself soon others then are naturally arguing that but if these these workers do end up getting their 40 percent pay hikes they would end up contributing to inflation which would be bad for the Federal Reserve however Morgan Stanley disagrees with this and they actually argue that even if all 146 000 workers got the full 40 raise we would only see a at about 0.05 percent increase in average hourly earnings over the next four years as a bottom line bro it ain't gonna cause inflation even if you give a pay bump to all of these people but the strike could lead to a recession and so what's the latest on that negotiation the UAW currently suggests that on Friday September 22nd which is just a few days away the next deadline will be struck and then the big three could end up facing even more strikes that is the UAW would call on more individuals to stand up and strike against what they call corporate greed and specifically executive greed with Executives facing potentially per the UAW wage increases of over 30 percent while wages for workers have only gone up six percent over the last four years despite the fact that the average price of a car is up 34 now this does somewhat disregard the inflationary input costs that have become more expensive to produce vehicles but it does make it clear that much like UPS it's probably time for workers to get some form of a pay bump so far companies like solantis have offered a 21 pay increase but the UAW so far says that's not enough and on top of this we're now expected to potentially see unions in Canada join striking workers in America axios is reporting we could see a 5100 worker strike in Canada that would take all all Ford workers and contribute to the strike this is by the unifor union now one thing that's been very misunderstood is the average pay of actual UAW workers Barons and the Wall Street Journal and a lot of mainstream media sources have been arguing that the UAW ends up paying its workers around 66 dollars per hour but most UAW workers throw their hands up and say I wish I was getting paid 66 dollars per hour and it turns out the mainstream media along with these corporations are collecting together all of the potential future benefits these employees could earn from not only health insurance but also potential profit sharing benefits extrapolated into the future and then calculated back into their hourly earnings this is quite deceptive because it makes it a lot harder to compare how much individuals are actually earning so I tried going to some more on unbiased sources as much as that as possible I thought one of the easiest ways to do this was exploring what zip recruiters suggest an average UAW salary actually is which is about 25 dollars per hour or around fifty two thousand seven hundred and seventy one dollars a per year full-time employees at the big three usually make a range of between 18 to 32 dollars per hour depending on seniority and those as the UAW argues are wages that haven't kept up with inflation it's also worth noting that back in 2008 unions gave substantial concessions to the big three automakers because the automakers were about to go bankrupt this is where Auto Executives famously traveled to Congress to ask for bailouts and private jets wondering when they'd get bailouts and Congress said you know what come up with a better plan to prove that y'all ain't going to go bankrupt anyway even after we bail you out this has led others to say this time is different and Congress will bail out automakers this time around for sure and this is all just a political ploy to get more stimulus money for the automakers but many are saying there's no way in hell any stimulus money is coming out of Congress for legacy automakers so good luck to the Legacy autos because nothing bipartisan is coming also it's worth noting a lot of workers currently working for the big three are now considered temporary workers who earn a lot less and receive a lot less in profit sharing benefits in fact potentially no profit sharing benefits making usually around 1578 to 1928 an hour this is a far cry from the 66 dollars per hour some of the mainstream Outlets are suggesting that workers at the UAW are actually earning this is because of the common number of 66 dollars per hour which again includes all those future benefits being thrown around in the media and then folks are wondering why are the these union workers on strike as a result we now have union workers responding going well I wish I made 66 dollars an hour here's an example 38 year old GM veteran making about 32 dollars an hour at a warehouse Distributing parts to repair already sold GM vehicles argues that newer workers end up starting at 17 bucks an hour they usually top out at around 25 an hour and he feels honored that he makes 32 dollars an hour either way you slice it though this UAW strike could potentially leave the Federal Reserve to say you know what there is too much uncertainty here we could be on the brink or on the cusp of seeing a massive amount of either layoffs or unemployment claims due to these strikes and a real hit to GDP in which case we are better off pausing to wait and see what happens not only with the lagged effects of monetary policy but also with this UAW strike in fact institutions across us Wall Street are now arguing it is impossible for the FED to know what kind of impact these UAW strikes are going to end up having on our American economy this is a big deal when Donald Trump was asked about these strikes his response was the Auto Workers are not going to have any jobs when you come right down to it because if you take a look at what they're doing with electric cars electric cars are going to be made in China the Auto Workers are not going to have any I'll tell you what the Auto Workers are being sold down the river by their leadership and their leadership should endorse Trump the reason is you're going to have Choice like in school I want school choice I also want choice for cars if somebody wants gasoline if somebody wants all electric they can do whatever they want but they're destroying the consumer and they're destroying the other workers the Auto Workers will not have any jobs Kristin because the all of these cars are going to be made in China the electric cars automatically are going to be made in China Trump is not wrong China makes a ton of electric vehicle byd is probably one of the world's largest Electric Vehicle Manufacturer and hybrid manufacturer Toyota has been a big hybrid manufacturer they're finally transitioning into electric vehicles we know that China is the biggest export market for Tesla vehicles in other words they make them in China and they export them across the world we know China is critical for battery production but In fairness we do also manufacture a lot probably somewhere around 40 percent of Tesla's in California and Texas and now we're starting to produce them in Germany as well so it's not only China but Donald Trump does have some point here a lot of electric vehicles are coming from China I do find it interesting this tone from Trump is a little softer on the electric vehicle bashing that he was doing during the Tucker Trump interview where he argued that electric vehicles had bad range he's walked away from the idea of bashing the electric vehicles and now says hey if you want electric you can have it if you want yes you can have it change of tune probably smart on the topic of Donald Trump Donald Trump just responded to the idea that Kevin McCarthy and Republicans could end up facing another government a shutdown thanks to once again hitting a budget negotiation stalemate where Donald Trump argues that if we don't get a fair deal we should walk away from the negotiating table and let a shutdown happen remember during the Trump Administration Donald Trump was not afraid to let a government shutdown actually happen to make sure he got the concessions he was looking for here's Donald I am proud to shut down the government for border security Chuck I will take the mantle I will be the one to shut it down I'm not going to blame you for it and now the president is no longer willing to sign that short-term funding bill and keep the government open he wants his wall it's very important that we have great border security I think it's going to be over with sooner than people think but I will do whatever we have to do if we have to stay out for a very long period of time we're going to do that and many of those people maybe even most of those people that really have not been and will not be getting their money in at this moment those people in many cases are the biggest fan of what we're doing how do you know that all right uh please major go ahead in case you don't remember Donald Trump did end up getting the whole government shut down to make sure he got what he wanted but let's now listen to what Donald Trump just said about abortion since this is actually a big deal to a lot of Americans I think and I think they're all going to like me I think both stars are going to like me let me let me have to happen is you're going to have to get this question you're asking me a question what's going to happen is you're going to come up with a number of weeks or months you're going to come up with a number that's going to make people happy because 92 percent of the Democrats don't want to see abortion after a certain period of time why does smart response notice what Trump does he Dodges the commitment to a number of weeks in which an abortion would be acceptable this really appeals to evangelicals who say basically no abortion ever essentially with the exception of maybe maybe certain circumstances where there's a threat to the life of the mother or it also could appeal to those who say oh you know okay well maybe you an abortion is reasonable up to a certain period of time Donald Trump really playing it in the middle here trying to appeal to both sides if a federal ban landed on your desk if you were re-elected would you sign it at 15.
are you talking about a complete ban a ban at 15 weeks well people people are starting to think of 15 weeks that seems to be a number that people are talking about right now would you sign that I would I would sit down with both sides and I'd negotiate something and we'll end up with peace in that issue for the first time in 52 years I'm not going to say I would or I wouldn't I mean to Sanctus was willing to sign a five-week and six week would you support that you think that I think what he did is a terrible thing and a terrible mistake but we'll come up with a number but at the same time Democrats won't be able to go out in six months seven months eight months and allow an abortion and his argument is really I'm gonna get it done and it's going to get done we're going to have a negotiation by bringing both those on the left and the right together and finding a middle ground and frankly maybe Donald Trump is right here maybe Americans in total aren't actually that far apart on abortion especially since we know that most on the left are not okay with abortions Beyond about 20 24 weeks and besides that only about one percent of abortions happen past 20 weeks anyway so most of the debate 99 of the debate of abortions has to do with the pre-20 week period so then we have to ask ourselves okay is it five weeks is it 10 weeks is it 15 weeks is it 20 weeks is it no abortions ever is it abortions with exceptions Donald Trump is taking a very interesting point of view here by saying I'll get to the bottom of it by bringing everybody together and finding a happy middle ground I don't know that there are a lot of Americans who could disagree with that with the exception of course of evangelicals who generally say no abortion at all with the exception of maybe risk the life of the mother but no matter where you stand on the issue of abortion it's obviously a very heated issue that's why it hasn't been solved it's been turned back to the States it's worth noting how Donald Trump turns this right back to what Americans want to focus on which is we got it done something is going to happen it's going to be a number of weeks something's going to happen where the both sides are going to be able to come together and then we'll be able to go on to other things like the economy our military Donald Trump was then asked if he would consider running for a third term which we know is not constitutionally permitted and he made it clear that no he's not trying to latch onto power for another third term even though some Democrats are arguing he's gonna get in he's gonna try to make himself a king a lot of this follows Rachel maddows sort of argument that Donald Trump will get in and make all the rules change so that he can never be dethroned again is that for life that he gets to be president will we keep having more elections or no if every election is a new opportunity for him to go to prison do you think he allows us to have new elections I mean if those are the stakes if winning the election is his plan to stay out of prison what happens in that election if and when he does not win it I mean if Trump and his supporters see the stakes as losing and going to prison or winning and being president and probably president for life how should we expect that he and the Republican party and Republican officials in swing states are going to handle the conduct of that election that Trump may very well lose that is an argument that you hear some make others say this is ludicrous he's coming in for another term potentially or likely and that's it let him have his term if he is so rightfully elected now at the same time in California you have Democrats posturing and actually requesting the California attorney general to have Donald Trump remove from the ballot in California citing the 14th Amendment this is a way of suggesting that because of j6 Donald Trump would be ineligible to appear as a candidate for president obviously you have those on the left who say hell yeah get them off the ballot and then of course you have those on the right who say can we just let people decide and let the voters make the decision and let the court of public opinion decide to the extent of which we have free and fair elections Apple phone lead times here exploding unclear whether these are because of supply chain constraints or just massive demand look at this the white titanium and natural titanium taking a large lag time of almost two months 59 days here in the United States similar in China by the way look at that the Japanese the Chinese the Americans the Brits the Indians those in Hong Kong everyone's sort of like hey we kind of like the White and the natural titanium better than the black and blue Titanium with just a little over a month of lead time at least in America this is all thanks to Goldman Sachs suggesting that the iPhone 15 pro and pro Max are seeing the longest lead times across regions while the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 plus are generally seeing more normal lead times so once again the iPhone 15 pro and pro Max kicking but in terms of lead times it does indicate a positive level of consumer demand and an increasing price slash mix for Apple which means higher margins potentially higher profits again with little transparency into Supply which could also be skewing some of these lead times in other words if you have artificially low Supply you could end up in a situation where it seems like there's more demand for the phones than there really is I wanted to dive a bit deeper into this and I looked up Nordic semiconductor Nordic semiconductor does a lot of work for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi in battery powered devices there was a general slowdown in demand as well as basically excess inventory that led to less needs for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi however these devices aren't necessarily in the iPhone they're usually used for home kit devices or find my devices NFC related devices so really you might not end up being able to determine iPhone demand from any Source you kind of just have to look and go wow if you missed the order window by 30 minutes you would have ended up going from being able to receive your iPhone if you ordered at the moment pre-orders opened up which was a 5 am a Pacific Standard time you would have gotten it within a week that following Friday which is just in a few days if you woke up just 30 minutes later you would have already been pushed back three weeks so the question is is there a supply chain constraint or are we over supply chain constraints and is demand for this iPhone really that incredible well Goldman Sachs goes as far as arguing one of the big reasons we could be seeing the demand that we are is because of well incentives from carriers and massive carrier promo emotions with ATT and T-Mobile and Verizon offering anywhere between eight hundred to a thousand dollars now they do require in many cases the most expensive 5G plans and service data plans to really try to squeeze that profit right back out of you these companies are offering pretty substantial promotions to get new customers keep in mind something that I like to do with my Apple devices is I actually like to have two carriers on one device so that way I can switch between like a t or T-Mobile but if you're gonna go between ATT T-Mobile go for like ATT maybe for the 800-ish or a thousand dollars off and then get like a mint mobile because they just use deprioritized T-Mobile bands which de-prioritize sounds so bad but honestly 99 of the time they're good anyway and the other time just use the ATT bands okay but that's like hack if you wanna you know instead of spending 75 maybe a month and 75 a month which is 150 bucks just spend 75.5 15 now you're a 90 and you have two phone numbers and two Services instead of just one on Deck is the instacart IPO expected to hit for thirty dollars per share they were targeting 27 to 30 dollars per share they're going to end up hitting likely at that upper end around 30 bucks keep in mind the arm IPO hit for about 59 bucks and ended up at about 58 dollars in the last trading session though that initial 59 was up about 17 to 20 percent from where they were originally targeted to be that doesn't mean card is going to have a similar outcome keep in mind much like the arm IPO the amount of float and lock-ups that you're getting ah they're not the best for probably a long-term hodlers consider some of the following details of the shares that will be issued the public float of 14.1 million shares you can expect potentially up to 56.2 million more shares to end up being issued in the form of non-voting stock that could be issued via existing options or restricted stock units which are basically employee compensation or other 2023 Equity incentive plans which is all just fancy English for saying the float that exists for instacart may end up for Xing over the next few years keep this in mind also keep in mind that existing stockholders will continue to own about 95 percent of the company new investors via this IPO will only own about five percent of the company it's a pretty small number the company is cash flow positive for the six months ended July 30th 2023 they had 242 million dollars of cash flow 220 million dollars of free cash flow and then income matched at 242 million this is great because it's definitely a turn from the lack of profitability they've had in Prior years especially during covid although for the full year end of 2022 they did end up with 428 million dollars of profit and the 2023 numbers they don't actually look that bad gross profit there are about 75 percent net profit they're only at about 16 that's because they spend a lot on Research development and sales but get this Revenue grew 31 in the last six months compared to the prior six months and they only increased sales and marketing by three percent you're still paying about 50 times earnings for this company at 30 bucks a share 60 cents annualized for earnings it's about 50 times earnings so it's not bad if you you can continue to grow hopefully the bottom line the tune of 25 30 percent puts you somewhere around a two Peg it's actually not horribly unrealistic however there are some big risk factors and in my opinion those are the fact that only five percent of the company is going to be owned by new shareholders insiders are likely to dump there are a lot of shares coming out just like an arm I actually think instacart has less uncertainty than arm does because you don't have to worry about armed China but you also have competition I mean instacart fairly says that right now only about 12 percent of grocery sales are online this is despite the fact that instacart has 7.7 million monthly active users over 5500 Brands and really there's hope that instacart is going to be in a lot more stores in the future but if there's competition or stores are reluctant you could end up getting some resistance to seeing numbers actually grow at instacart instacart is also pitching that they offer AI powered shopping carts which lead to potentially 15 percent more sales by basically targeting people's preferences via advertisements and trying to use AI to profit more money well it musk had some things to say on Twitter over the last 24 hours a first after the Wall Street Journal published an article suggesting that Elon Musk who's known for having a potential contentious relationship with the Saudis could potentially be in the very early stage of maybe building a Tesla gigafactory in Saudi Arabia well Elon Musk ended up quoting this Wall Street Journal article and saying it was utterly false now this is entirely possible because Elon Musk is also meeting with country leaders across the world from leaders in Indonesia to Turkish leaders to literally riding around the gigafactory with Israel's netanyu and quite frankly probably don't want the Wall Street Journal right on the heels of you meeting Nathaniel bitching how you're interested in doing a deal with the Saudis probably not a great look and maybe exactly why Elon Musk right away started reposting more pro-israel content on his Twitter right after he replied to That Wall Street Journal piece sounds to me like elon's playing a game of politics but guess what bottom line is he should be the more he plays Politics the more money he's gonna get for Tesla to end up building factors wherever he damn well pleases Tesla Model X has also seen its delivery dates move back from being able to get the vehicle between September and October to October to November and now to November and December implying that the model X is once again becoming more popular the model X being the seven seed version that a lot of people like unless you actually want to use the trunk I know that because I own a seven seat model X it's a great vehicle but just don't expect to use the trunk if you have all seven seats out I'd probably if I bought it again go for the six seat especially since those back two in the seven seater version not that comfy or spacious I'd rather go for the six seat version so you actually have functional seats that's just my free opinion Elon Musk also argues that Tucker Carlson no matter how you count it is getting a lot more views on Twitter that's because people are throwing up screenshots and showing that Tucker Carlson's Trump interview got 265 million impressions on Twitter versus the average nightly viewership that Tucker Carlson got on Fox news of about 3 million now it's worth noting that the Donald Trump Tucker Carlson interview is not an average nightly interview so In fairness if you look at average Tucker Carlson views per video he's probably somewhere closer to 50 to 100 million impressions on Twitter versus the 3 million views he would get on Fox so obviously we can argue that fox is probably rigging maybe even how they can via Nielsen view counts how they come up with three million but usually what you do is you take an average of 50 to 100 million impressions on Twitter and you generally divide it by about a third to about a fourth that would bring you down to somewhere around 12 and a half to 25 million views which is still four to eight x what Tucker Carlson averaged on Fox now Tucker's probably also posting four to x times Less on Twitter because he's not posting every single night new video content like he was Monday through Friday back when he was on Fox Twitter in my opinion is also a much more accessible platform versus having to have cable TV to watch Fox or some kind of other digital like DirecTV subscription and then purposely going into Fox to view Tucker Carlson which is something you could easily do now while still having a cut cord through like again DirecTV they make it pretty easy to kind of DVR everything like I have a t and which is harder you know they own DirecTV now and they let you have unlimited DVR this is not sponsored at all just to be saying like I think it's kind of cool because then I go oh I missed you know what that person said and I can go click and go back and like oh there it is great now let's listen to Kathy Wood and her argument on Tesla keep in mind she's going to talk about one-third two-third that is of Tesla revenues what are they getting now are they getting the one-third now are they getting the two third now and what could that mean if today we're getting one third when are we gonna get the two thirds as Tesla investors let's listen in what assumptions are made about its business to get to that 1400 by 27 number well about a third of our evaluation is associated with electric vehicles EVs and scaling them and as as you mentioned turkey a plant there uh you know many countries do want a Tesla plant because is this is the new world right so that's good this is all working out and then the then two-thirds of our valuation is around autonomous and autonomous taxi platforms we think Tesla is in the pole position here in the United States it has collected more data about our roads and actually other roads around the world uh then all of the other companies combined and therefore it has more Corner cases and probably will be the company that will get people from point A to point B as quickly and safely as possible so it's a winner take most Market uh so whether it's our base case uh it just that just means okay autonomous uh perhaps takes a little longer to play out uh or the bull case it happens much more quickly so even the the if it takes longer to play out it's still 1400.
um and and that sort of that seems extremely optimistic in terms of even the regulatory um green lights that Tesla would need for autonomy it seems also you know that the model where Tesla owners would own their cars and then they would go out and earn them money during the day by driving people around that also seems sort of optimistic in terms of the uptake of that Kathy so you know for two-thirds of the valuation do you feel like that there's risk even around the bear case at all with the two-thirds well um actually the risks are going down because Regulators are very data driven and what Regulators have been experiencing especially in the transportation sector is that the number of auto deaths in the United States have gone up has gone up during the past five to ten years from thirty thousand to forty five thousand after Decades of falling thanks to Auto safety measures so the national highway and Transportation safety board and other Transportation authorities want to turn that Trend back down why has it happened a lot of it is because of texting and therefore a disproportionate number of young people are dying in auto accidents so the data supports what Tesla is doing 80 to ninety percent of all accidents on the roads are caused by human error if you take the human being out of the equation and and use AI to get people from point A to point B as safely as quickly as possible um I think the the the authorities The Regulators are going to be persuaded by the data in fact they already have been in terms of the fatalities in uh in Tesla's cars they examine them they say not Tesla's fault for the most part and oh by the way uh people driving in Tesla cars are 40 plus safer uh with autopilot and FSD than in other cars nothing absolutely Nails it here remember that when Regulators found out that Elon Musk had an Elon mode that basically let you override having the nudge on the steering wheel when you're on autopilot which is just a way of saying you don't don't have to engage the steering wheel at all rather than Regulators shutting Elon down and punishing Elon and Tesla they said hey we want to know who has this how do you enable it and would you learn like we're curious what what did you learn from not having the nudge was was it safer was it better hello this is The Regulators actually doing what Kathy is highlighting The Regulators are going we we're not opposed to this if it's better we we want to know we're data driven here which I know saying government and data driven in the same sentence is like oh my gosh what are you a Democrat let's try to put the politics aside for a moment okay now if you want to see some wild charts that consider the following if you were told that hey you could invest in a vaccine company that would end up being extremely popular during the pandemic do you think that vaccine company would have actually outperformed the S P 500 well if you stack it up over well the last year the answer is no last five years the answer is no last over 20 years the answer is no throw in the NASDAQ the answer is no as well and if you now really want to see what outperformed just throw in apple yeah ouch it kind of goes to show that sometimes investing in the right innovation of right stock can outperform but boy that could also end up being a lottery to try to hit Apple that early on public sector jobs are up 327 000 in 2023 alone according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics that actually accounts for one-fifth one in five of every jobs created coming to you from the government this is also usually deemed to be a late stage indicator also known as counter-cyclical in other words when the economy goes into a recessionary environment private companies are less aggressive at hiring individuals and this is when public jobs potentially with more stability reasonable hours and a sense of purpose can step in and encourage people to go for public sector work now more private workforces are pausing their hiring maybe even undergoing quiet layoffs leading to more desirability for public work again potentially indicating a recession could be here or near Mark Cuban is getting heat for saying back in 2021 quote if you work for me I require my employees to be vaccinated unless there's a doctor's reason why you can't be now there are some messages from telegram circulating that suggests when you get vaccinated and tell others to do the same all come on your podcast my choice not to support people who haven't been vaccinated this is a very much in contrast to something like what a Vivek aramiswami says who even though him and his wife have differing opinions makes potentially quite a reasonable argument that a lot of people relate with today the vague argues that he regrets taking the covet vaccine and says if he had the facts he had now would not have gotten vaccinated and many probably agree with that his wife on the other hand who works with a lot of cancer patients given that she's a laryngologist something that having to do with like swallowing and voice disorders but anyway she deals with a lot of folks who have undergone treatment for cancer which is absolutely terrible knock on wood nobody watching ever has to deal with this it's absolutely horrible but anyway she says she felt she had a responsibility to have a vaccine because of the patients she was around and this sounds quite reasonable now just as sort of a throwback back to my campaign for governor in California take a listen to this clip where I talk about the constitutional right for a business to determine their own rules around whether or not they would require mandates and this was in response to a question as to whether or not I supported Gavin newsom's mandates my opinion was clear I was a big fan of individual choice and business Choice path for ath agrees with all the Republicans on stage in opposing Governor newsom's vaccine and mask mandates I believe every individual business has the constitutional right and every individual building has the right to determine their own mandate rules now let's talk about housing having hit a wall and it's not just talk it's literally what I'm starting to see and it's spreading much like a covid virus it's really bizarre and kind of freaky it's something to pay attention to and I'll tell you we are just drooling at house hack for the opportunity to buy even cheaper deals we're expecting to buy about a hundred unlivable fixed roppers and we can't wait to go shopping here's where we're finding weakness and where some pain just hit the wall first of all Oregon's been weak like all freaking year long Boise's been pretty weak as well Austin started booming though in Texas between the beginning of the year and about July but guess what over the last two months the Austin Market based on what we're seeing on the ground working with Realtors has hit a wall this means we're putting a pause on taxes until maybe we hit a bottom closer to late October November we're watching the data we're going to be data driven on this but boy some markets are hitting more of a wall than others let me give you another example we verbally floated an idea that hey maybe we'd be willing to be at about 470 000 on a certain property in an area where we started to see the market term then we decided you know what Market's turning in this area we're gonna wait and let it bottom out a little bit first seller calls us and says hey look you were at 470.
I I can't go all the way down to where you want would you consider 460 no would you consider 450 no okay then they let a couple days go by how about 4 30. no and then they're like okay okay okay we we know you've wanted to be at 420 that's what you floated to us after you kind of initially were floating around 470 you're like maybe you'd be convinced at 4 20.
how about we go for 420. and then I'm like yeah that's how I felt a few days ago now I don't feel like that anymore and they're like oh for me it's actually this perfect experiment into what's going on in the market because that's how I know what competition there is if they keep calling me back the competition just vanished and that is different we did not see that in July we have not seen that anywhere throughout the year we didn't really see it in August with the exception of certain parts of the country and now we're starting to see it more and more now that we're in September my guess is as I've been saying for over a year and a half Q3 Q4 2023 is going to be where the party is and I have a feeling the party's just getting started so buckle up for a roller coaster there's some opportunities coming up How's that gonna go make some money by the way stay tuned because we've got some big announcements coming for house hack on China Xi Jinping snub Joe Biden last week in favor of Biden just meeting with the Prime Minister of China big slap in the face and we gotta pay attention to Country Garden this is China's largest privately run property developer it's in big financial distress and could be a bigger crisis than ever Grant 2021's default that could lead to some disinflation as it continues to contribute to the contraction of the Chinese economy although so far oil prices rising to now 95 bucks a barrel of crude for Brent not so great for the disinflation narrative but it is a pro tightening Financial conditions narrative which could lead the FED to pause but definitely could end up causing some inflation straight through higher oil and energy prices not great but this country garden issue big deal and given that a lot of Chinese households have lost faith in housing as a safe investment you could end up seeing a renewed deepening of the real estate crash in China since Country Garden focuses a lot on the suburban area and even rural areas you might end up seeing a whole lot more pain than you might otherwise see in areas where people are really focused on wanting to live which are bigger cities in other words maybe more stability in places like Shanghai and Beijing which are deemed to be some of the top tier investable property markets and everything outside of these areas not faring as well on top of this you've got a pretty big piece from a presidential candidate in Taiwan he's also the mayor of Taipei the capital of Taiwan and the biggest argument this presidential candidate makes is that Taiwan needs to build up its Western Alliance and its military capabilities to deter China from invading Taiwan while at the same time showing that they are willing to democratically talk with China well unfortunately for Taiwan China doesn't seem to want to care so much about talking instead China's right back to flexing China flew a record 103 warplanes near Taiwan marking the most in Bloomberg compiled data going back three years the China activity appears to be in response to American visits said Taiwan especially Arizona's Governor Katie Hobbs as tsmc is building a massive facility in Arizona just outside of well it's actually within the Phoenix area sort of towards the western side of Phoenix Taiwan now reporting that the Chinese military presence is posing a serious security challenge to Taiwan but Taiwan also really concerned because they import the vast majority of their energy over 90 percent and that maybe they've got to focus on nuclear or some form of homegrown energy to finally be less dependent on outside sources that could easily be cut off and crimped by China some say this is more saber rattling from China but also counter Sable rattling from Taiwan so they can get more support from America now I promise to snip it from our Daily Wealth emails and in today's Daily Wealth email snippet we are going to talk about work-life balance since basically in my opinion there is no such thing as a work life imbalance you have to enjoy what you do because ultimately everything that you're doing every single day is part of your life and in my opinion it's the quality of what you do that matters not the nominal hours that you spend so maximize quality and manage your productivity rather than your time spend focused quality hours on your journey to success it's not about the time on paper that counts in a balanced life for example if I spend two or three days crashing hard stud crash studying super hard for a test to make sure I could pass that Series 7 broker exam like I did last week that's high quality Focus time on passing that exam with almost no family time and that seems really out of balance but then when I pass guess what I get to celebrate with my friends and family uh now yeah I can now enjoy quality time building Legos with my eight-year-old going on a run with my children I could spend time not only playing Luigi's Mansion with them but riding go-karts with them or going to Chuck E cheese with them and that quality time is so much more valuable because it is in contrast to the hard work that I did to Succeed in Business and now I can succeed with family and it's that yin and yang that actually makes me enjoy both work and family
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