저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
요약 보기
루비니는 인도의 중장기(향후 수년간) 성장 잠재력을 긍정적으로 보며 연 7% 이상 성장이 가능하다고 전망한다. 인도 성장 전망: 인구 14억 명의 젊은 인구와 낮은 1인당 소득(중국의 1/4)을 근거로 따라잡기 성장 여지가 크다고 본다. 다만 재벌 중심의 '정실 자본주의'가 혁신과 경쟁을 막아 잠재성장률이 약 6%대에 머물 수 있다고 경고한다. 성장 모델: 인도는 서비스 수출·IT 중심이지만 국가 챔피언(재벌) 육성 방식은 경쟁과 생산성을 해친다고 지적한다. 공정한 경쟁 환경과 민간 진입 허용이 핵심이다. 제조업·프렌드쇼어링: 중국+1 기회는 크지만 자동으로 오지 않으며, 인프라·인력 교육·공정한 경쟁 환경이 필요하다. 수입 대체 중심 보호무역은 수출 경쟁력을 약화시킨다고 우려한다. 통화정책·환율: 인도중앙은행(RBI)의 대응은 대체로 잘했다고 평가한다. 인플레이션 지표가 예상보다 높게 나와 추가 금리 인상 가능성이 있다고 본다. 루피화 약세는 수출에 유리해 점진적 약세는 큰 문제가 아니라고 본다. 루피 결제·달러화: 달러의 국제 결제 비중은 구조적·지정학적 이유로 점차 줄어들 것이며, 루피가 주요 지역 통화 중 하나가 될 수 있다고 본다. 글로벌 위협: 기후변화, 거시경제 안정(저물가·지속가능한 부채), 인적·물적·제도적 자본 투자의 중요성을 강조한다. 본 영상은 인도 경제 전망 중심이며 한국 증시 종목·지수에 대한 직접적 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
well noral rubini was in India and he was at GBS where my colleague aay Sharma caught up with uh norel rubini on where he feels India has said that now remember just to give a perspective to our viewers uh noal romini 2007 called the GFC crisis he really was one amongst the foremost Economist who came out and said that look there is a debt crisis and the Clock Was ticking and then it exploded and that's that is the reason why is one of the most sought after eon IST when it comes to forecasting and his current forecast clearly seems to be that India could see a 7% growth in the medium- term and that could really make India as one of the fastest growing economy at least of this decade well I'm quite positive about India I think there is a good chance that India is going to be the most important country in the world over the medium long term you have a population is the largest in the world young and growing 1.4 billion people so that can good education and skills lead to strong economic growth secondly there's going to be a catch up of growth the growth per capita of India is only one quarter of that of China with the right policy growth can be potentially above 7% and that's going to lead you to become a very strong economic power and finally the country is also going to become a major geopolitical power both in Asia and globally given his size his role and the fact that you know you need a strong power to manage the relation also with a rising China you've really analyzed business models if I may say so economic growth models of so many countries over decades how are you really analyzing the economic development model which India has uh you know is practicing and exercising last couple of years well in some Dimensions the economic model of India is similar to the other of other growth success stories for example the Asian growth model was based on exports as a leading source of economic growth in the case of East Asia was traditionally Manufacturing in the case of India until recently has been more exports of services IT Tech and other services but the export Le growth is actually one of the ways in which a country can become more Dynamic and competitive there are other ways in which the lessons of Asian also can be learned because in parts of Asia the economic model came one of using National Champions say in Indonesia there swaro in China there Shin pin the ketu model of Japan or the chable model of Korea for a while actually those National Champion were a source of economic dynamism but the reality is over the medium-term when you have too much concentration of economic power among a small group of conglomerates you are reducing potential growth because you are hampering Innovation you're restricting new entrance there's not as much competition I and total Factor productivity growth depends on having a very competitive sector what's happening in India for example in the tax sector is one in which there is a Level Playing Field any firm can enter the tax stock allows new entrance new in corns to provide financial and other services it's very Dynamic it's very competitive it's very productive I feel that in some parts of the old economy the existence of very powerful conglomerates that represents unfortunately forms of chronic capitalism is going to hamper economic growth that's why the potential growth of India in my view is stuck around 6% is not going higher in spite of the policy reform is really chronic capitalism that keeps you behind India is trying to do a lot in a very small span of time and challenges are very big the way our policy makers the way our Regulators all of them are working together in order to ensure that there is manufacturing lead growth our financial markets are very efficient the way we manage the crisis RBI manage without throwing away money or give handing over money in people's hand we manage the crisis as well how do you see the role of all the stakeholders coming together to achieve larger objective of structural economic growth well so far I would say India has done quite well uh of course in India you have to have a coordination of a variety of policy makers and also Regulators not only at the union level but also at the state level the fact that there has been now in the last decade the creation of a fully integrated internal Market that used to be divided the demonetization the introduction the GST has felt that and reducing other types of friction building an infrastructure that is Union wide that reduces the logistics and the cost of transportation is also very important uh those policy choices of course are more challenging in a democracy than they are in autocracy but as we know aut CES make mistakes you know in China shinin is not just the president is like an emperor in last City he made massive mistakes in the management of covid bashing the private sector not dealing with financial imbalances and so on so while democracy is more messy I think that you get much more consensus for your policy choices if it's through a political process where you can convince people of the right reform those reform may take longer and occur more slowly but they become more sustainable and more resilient over time that's why a strong vibrant democracy with a market system and the provision of Public Services a variety of things the middle class and the poor is the right economic approach and that's the one that has been taken by Indian successfully you you've mentioned friend Shoring here in India people are very excited about opportunities China plus one can throw up for India or even Europe plus one is now being spoken about how large opportunities could this be for India if Indian corporations really scale up their standards of manufacturing and scale uh is it like a decadal theme or even longer because you know large capacities and orders will start flowing here how structural do you see this phenomena well French Shing of course is a huge opportunity for India there's a large country is in Asia is an alternative to China but I think that uh you cannot take it for granted you have to have the right policy and Regulatory environment to make sure that the capita that is living China is going to come to India there are plenty of other countries both in Asia around the world that could be sources of French Shoring first of all you've done a lot of work now to build the physical infrastructure that was lagging the one of China more needs to be done in that direction but you go in the right direction uh the skills of the labor force are mixed on one side you have really a small group of people that are in the high tax sector they're excellent but the investment in educ for rest of the country need to be made in order to have the kind of skills for manufacturing at low or medium value added L alone high value added as well the business framework and the institutional framework is also important some sectors some foreign firms came into India and then Advantage was given to local firms say in the Telecom sector they got burned out and they left so you have to make sure that there is a lbel playing field that you're making favor it's for local oligopolies or monopolies or cronies or other national champions other the foreign firms are not going to come to your country or they're going to come and they're going to become disappointed so it's an opportunity but you cannot take it for granted you have to work really hard in a world where capital is really mobile to make sure that the capital wants to go to India as opposed to other parts of Asia so you may have observed that U our policy makers are taking a lot of steps to beef up manufacturing PL was one in this budget also we hiked capex overall and in Railways uh do you think this is the right approach for infrastructure manufacturing scaleup for what else would be required to scale up our manufacturing capabilities to Global levels I think that developing a manufacturing base is important and having the right industrial policy is important I think that however India is at risk of making some mistakes mistake number one is that attracting Global firms that produce for this Market is good but you need also to have Goods that are competitive in global markets instead what's happening in India is that uh the attraction of foreign capital is used as a more like import substitution industrialization the Restriction to tariff is on either raw materials intermediate inputs or final goods that imply that actually if you're a foreign firm wanted to produce for the global market if the imported inputs are expensive you cannot exploit the global value and Supply chains are part of an integrated production process so going in the direction of protectionism of domestic firms and of domestic industry as opposed to having production for export L growth may be a challenge and the fact that India has not recently joined either ftas or regional trade agreements is signal that you're doing something slightly not right and the other dim menion of it is the compartive advantage of India is not in traditional labor intensive industry is not even in things like say cars tractor locomotives it's in high-tech it's in it and within it there are products of course like iPhones and other types of tech products now some of those Productions may not be as labor intensive as traditional manufacturing but if you're going to give preference to your subsidy to more traditional manufacturing you're not going to explod your comparative advantage that is in technology so I'm all in favor of industrial policy even of subsidy and so on but they have to done in a cerent way that actually makes your firms and your products competitive in Global Market rather than a protected domestic market and that's one risk you're facing how have you analyzed the steps taken so far by our Central Bank in order to keep the currency stable in order to manage inflation versus growth tilting towards growth while still taking all efforts to manage inflation uh so far I think the RBI is done well they thought that they probably were done with the last policy I business points in a February unfortunately the data about headline inflation and core since then have come slightly higher than expected even if wholesale inflation is lower there is a state of the world in which unfortunately inflationary pressure may be persisting and therefore the RB might be forced to hike slightly more and withdraw further liquidity if the world is a weaker one and if the world is going to be one which there'll be Financial pressure on the currency on the balance of payment and so on then the policy tradeoffs are going to be challenging because either you prevent the currency by essentially weakening from by doing Forex intervention that has cost and benefits or you let the currency weaken if it weakens too much that may be a source of important inflation or you hike essentially policy rates in a way that weakens economic growth I think that you have to manage it carefully I would say that the margin while the currency is weakened uh um on a number of measure say the the real exchange of the equilibrium probably there is still room for some depreciation especially if you're thinking about having export L growth either of manufacturing or also of services so a gradually falling currency may not lead to significant important inflation especially because some of your raw material like oil and energy from Russia is bought at not international market prices but discounted prices and the benefit of having having a slightly weaker currency like in the case of the as Asian tiger might out outperform any kind of concerns about imported inflation so maintaining a competitive currency should be actually one of the important objectives of the RBI talking of currency we're also trying to conduct international trade with a lot of Partners across the world in our own currency be it Russia Iran Africa parts of Southeast Asia uh do you see that gain momentum um yeah you know I'm on The View that overall there will be a process of dollarization over time part of it is just structural the share of global economy of the US is falling from 40 20% does it make sense for the US dollar to be 2/3 of all International Financial and trade transactions part of it is geopolitics the US is weaponizing the US dollar for National Security and foreign policy objectives that of course makes the of the US uncomfortable even some of the friends and allies of the us whether in the Middle East or even in Asia a little bit quizy about that and um you can see how the Opia could become for some of the trade that India does with the rest of the world especially South sou trade could become a vehicle currency could be unit of account could be a means of payment could become a store of value certainly you know rupia over time could become one of the variety of global Reserve currencies in the world that's amazing you know you have made a comment that India has the potential to grow 7% McKenzie says it's India Century some other similar agencies say it is India's decade when you say 7% plus is our potential growth rate uh how what's the durability of that are we talking about many years of around 7% is that possible well certainly it's possible you know China when was growing very fast for three decades it grew at about 10% and of course that with aging of population and catch up of growth once you reach midle income levels is not sustainable uh the per capita income of India is low and half that actually with reform certainly 7% is possible but even more than 8% but you have to do many more economic reforms that are structural to achieve that growth rate and if you achieve it you could maintain it for at least a couple of decades but depends very much on policies but at the same time let's talk about some Global challenges you recently your recent book Mega threats 2023 beyond what would if I were to ask you what were the three biggest threats uh would be that Global policy maker individual leaders of countries like ours all of them have to bear in mind and have to make their policies antifragile if I may use that word that these risks don't hamper their overall plans at all well the one that is key that is relevant for the world but also specifically for India is the issue of climate change under some scenarios you know good OFA will be maybe either underwater or too OD to live or subject to Major uh natural disasters so investing into the green economy the green transition making energy more renewable alternative to fossil fuel is going to be very very important to have a better planet and a better world uh in India is as at risk as any other parts of the world I think that's a key one the next is overall macroeconomic stability maintaining low inflation maintaining sustainable private and public debts and external debts so that you don't have Financial pressures that occur when you have accessing de inness is going to be a Nexus of economic that maintains macroeconomic stability is required for having also stable economic growth and third one is really investing into the variety of capital human capital physical capital infrastructure Capital institutional capital and also Global Soft power as a way of achieving also sustained economic growth you know the future of the world is digital is knowledge is innovation the benefit of India is that it has already a comparative advantage in Tech and it can do much more so in those industries of the future but good policy Frameworks and implementation of them are necessary in order to achieve that particular success
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