저자: Kevin · 외국인
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저금리가 주식·부동산 상승을 견인했으나 Fed가 금리를 올리면 조정 위험이 있다. 찰스 에반스 시카고 연준 총재 연설에 따르면 인플레이션이 2024년경 2.25%에 도달해도 2026년 중반까지 금리 인상이 없을 가능성이 있어 저금리 기간이 길다. 따라서 매수 후 보유(buy and hold) 전략을 유지하되 Fed의 금리 인상 시점을 주시해야 한다. 장기 투자 관점에서 주식과 부동산에 투자하며 부채는 제한하는 것이 권고된다.
다듬은 글
heads up free stocks and life insurance below said regarding interest rates stocks and real estate many of you already know that the pumps we've seen in the real estate market and probably or almost certainly the pumps that we've been seeing in the stock market have been heavily influenced by super low interest rates when we can cheaply borrow we tend to invest more money heck when m1 finance sends you a beautiful email and says you can now borrow at just two percent interest you tend to get really tempted to yolo everything on the debt that you can pull out against your stocks and buy more tesla because stocks only go up and when banks tell you that a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is available for you at the low low price of just 2.8 percent locked in for 30 years you tend to want to buy real estate unfortunately this means we're also heavily subject to what is now being referred to as the day of reckoning the day of reckoning is when the federal reserve decides parties got on too late time to take the punch bowl away of low interest rates and uh well that really upsets the party the last time the fed tried taking the punch bowl away we were kicking and screaming so much they had to put the punch bowl back yeah that actually happened in the summer of 2018 the fed started bumping interest rates pretty dramatically we went from zero to a high of three percent very very quickly in rapid succession uh that ended in 2018 and while that instantly caused a substantial pullback in the real estate market and the stock market had a pretty bloody november and december until the fed relented and started reducing the interest rates again basically putting the punch bowl back in early 2019.
well now many of us are even more fearful about what could be next and why what could be next could be worse after all we've now pumped trillions of dollars more into the market and we're now even more addicted to that punch bowl of sweet sweet low interest rates so what's the path forward well today i analyzed a speech from charles evans he's the president of the chicago fed and he gave us his opinions about the federal reserve and what to expect this gives us some updated guidelines and it really helps us if we're investing in stocks and real estate so let's just go ahead and pull up the speech itself i highlighted the most important sections so that way you won't get bored with hopefully women it's still kind of it's we're talking about the fed here okay so let's just take a look at the good stuff and then let's draw some conclusions okay here's the beginning of the boring piece of paper we don't really have to pay too much attention to the first or second page here but i do want to quickly note that these are charles evans expectations and one of the things he does say is that the expectations he's about to talk about are based on and assuming that there will be more fiscal support that is more stimulus support coming and he says here without adequate fiscal support before too long i'm concerned that recessionary dynamics will gain more traction and lead to a slower trajectory back and and keep this in mind when we're talking about a trajectory of recovery we're kind of expecting stimulus to get us there faster if we don't have stimulus then it's going to take longer and we're going to get to keep that punch bowl of low interest rates even longer so what i'm about to tell you is actually his assumption with stimulus and if it's without then we have even more time and that's what we're trying to figure out is when when is the party going to end what time so we can plan and we can get our last few dances in well here we go once we go to about page 5 in his discussion we get to what he calls a new framework uh and he starts talking about kind of test driving cars and he goes on these rants about how his opinions about inflation work and he talks about 2018 and 15 and 16 all this crap we don't care about that we want the bottom lines and here we go this is what he says so he believes that inflation is going to gradually rise to 2 in 2023 but before we talk about what happens next he also says and this is a good warning to keep in mind he does believe that at the beginning of 2021 we're going to see some inflation data that actually looks a little bit more scary and what he means by that is because in 2020 prices fell so much we had prices fall and now we're kind of slowly trying to recover right well what happens is if in 2021 we do inflation readings let's say right here and we look back one year we might actually feel like oh my gosh we had like three percent inflation he's actually giving us this warning that don't worry about that that's that's not what we're looking at right now we want to look at long run inflation so that was an interesting warning that he gave and then he gives us his projection in terms of okay how long going forward are we actually going to think the punch bowl is still going to be out and his answer is right here so he says suppose we hit 2.1 well 2.2 and a quarter percent inflation in 2024 that is we we have low inflation of under two percent until 2024 average down and then in 2024 that two and a quarter percent inflation stays well now the fed is above their favorite well two percent target and that's something to keep in mind as well the fed is trying to get us to something known as an average of two percent inflation right now as a country we're probably somewhere between this 1.3 to 1.7 range and we've been there pretty much this whole last decade probably for like the last 12 years and so what the what mr evans here is saying is let's say by 2024 we finally get inflation to 2.25 percent that's two and a quarter percent well he believes we are going to stay at that inflation that is the fed will not increase rates because once inflation goes up then they're usually going to want to increase rates and that's when the party's over that's when it party starts going ugly uh anyway he believes we're going to sit at this range and not raise rates until at least mid 20 26 if this holds true and that's the important thing to note here is he's kind of giving us the calculus here he's saying if you have inflation hitting two and a quarter percent in 2024 well then we can just throw on a spreadsheet and average out okay what's our inflation over time and then if all of a sudden by mid-2026 we still have that same inflation well then great then we have this what they call cumulative average core inflation of their favorite number two percent and he even says what this means is if for some reason we see like a crazy inflation reading and it's like oh my gosh inflation just came in at two and a half percent he's actually saying don't worry about that he and he kind of addresses that right here where he says if you can produce two and a half percent inflation in 2024 then you can actually get to an average two percent inflation about a year quicker okay these are really great bottom lines so let's understand that and if there's anything you're going to write down on your investing wall or wherever you put your post-it notes or whatever this is probably a good thing to write down so if by 2024 or whenever we see this right i mean this could seriously it could have come early right that's always a risk factor we don't really know we're only saying like if then so if we see 2.25 inflation by 2024 then rates will probably stay low through mid 2026.
that's a pretty good conclusion right there if interest rates go up to 2.5 percent then we'll see mid you know this sort of low inflation the punch bowl will still be around until mid 2025. that's pretty good now we're not really expecting to see like 2.75 or 3 percent inflation obviously if that time came we could always adjust our figures but something that's really cool that we could do with this whiteboard here which is kind of like a spreadsheet because see when i just do this and i put in well what if that inflation comes early what if we see it in 2022 well the spreadsheet automatically updates and tells us how long we're going to see low interest rates for so this is why if there's anything you're going to track track inflation and what we're looking for is if we see that consistent 2.25 percent we've probably got another two to two and a half years if we see point five percent so two and a half percent inflation then we've probably got an extra three years of low rates we haven't even started seeing these higher inflation numbers yet so we've got a while to go of low rates so what does this actually mean for us investing well i you know i think it's almost like redundant to just say buy and hold at this point because i think most of y'all know i'm a big fan of that i mean that's what we teach obviously and how to actually get really good deals doing that in the money course or the real estate course how to get real estate deals you know starting with zero how to become a millionaire you all know about those linked down below but here's what we really want to take away from this okay if we're thinking oh my gosh the market's going to crash do i want to invest or do i not want to invest in my opinion this can't be the only thing you never know just never know because the market crashed at any point but in my opinion if we're really looking for the biggest fattest catalyst of the market crashing it's going to be when the fed comes in there goes party's over boys and girls and they take the punch bowl away that's when you know who got problems but they're basically telling you hey um we're going to set a clock next to the punch bowl wouldn't you want to keep your eye on that clock in the meantime you got multiple years left to invest i mean his own accord here was that you really got until 2025 until 2026 before they're even going to start thinking about raising rates and honestly my expectation is that we're going to see low rates this entire decade that maybe 25 and 26 will come around and oh that's it we're taking the punch bowl away and then all they really do is they take like a little cup out of it and they walk away like seriously that's all you did in terms of raising rates so even though it seems weird that the fed is printing money like crazy this could potentially be a i hate to say new normal because i don't even really believe that it would be a new normal because low rates like this seem weird but then if you look at europe it's a new it's a new normal they've been they've had deflation for the last two months and they've basically been suffering and struggling finding it impossible to create inflation in fact that's another thing that charles evans says in this is he actually says the longer you remain at zero percent interest the longer you actually encourage inflation to stay low like how twisted is that because when interest rates are zero we're usually thinking oh that means easy money people can just go borrow and spend like crazy and that's going to cause inflation that's the theory but the longer you stay at what they call the effective lower bound the elp the more you actually reiterate people's expectations for low inflation and so prices ironically stay lower this is why i think we got like a decade of low rates here so when it comes to investing i'm a big fan of you're probably better off getting in and then waiting than waiting to get in you might have to replay that but anyway uh that's my course so when people ask me hey you know kevin what's your course of action how are you investing what's your game plan this is it i'm i'm having fun at the party i'm buying stocks i'm buying real estate i'm going to be careful i'm going to buy deals under market value i'm going to limit my debt but in the meantime i'm going to keep my eye on the clock because it's like every other week the fed keeps telling us like they replace the small clock with an even bigger one and they're like hello have you seen the clock yet like we got time which is good but the clock is ticking so keep that in mi links down below check out the courses and the special coupon code below and folks we'll see in the next video
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