저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주택시장 붕괴 우려는 과장이라는 주장. 금리 하락에 따른 집값 상승(10배 규칙), 연체율은 자발적 forbearance 영향으로 과장, 2008과 달리 현재 매수자는 고소득층, 실업률은 주택시장과 무관. 진짜 위험은 인플레이션에 따른 금리 인상과 임대 퇴거 위기의 결합. 현재 디플레이션 추세라 당분간 금리 인상 가능성은 낮다고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here there's a lot of misinformation over what's actually going to cause a housing market crash in this video i'm going to go argument by argument and provide facts to justify my response full disclaimer i'm a real estate investor and personally own over 16 million in real estate without partners i invest heavily in real estate in both multi-family and single-family real estate and i owe it to myself to be extremely in tune with the real estate market and if you're interested in building wealth and real estate as well then you should pay attention to the signals that matter when it comes to a potential shift in the real estate market now in the first half of this video i'm going to talk about what's not going to cause a housing market crash and i'll give arguments and facts as to why i believe that then in the second half of the video i'll talk about what is most likely to cause a housing market crash quick note for those of you looking for inexpensive real estate or below market value deals or even off market deals i recently partnered with deal machine they're a really neat app that lets you automate your follow-up to fixer-uppers or properties that you identify to help you get in touch with the sellers of these deals i'm going to start using this a lot over the next couple years and the market has gotten so competitive that i'm looking for every opportunity to increase my competitiveness and for the price this should be a really good value check out the link down below you'll get some extra credits and a free trial for deal machine okay let's get started first it's all common it's very very common to see individuals especially on youtube fear monger and post charts and say oh look housing prices are high look at the case-shiller index this is what housing prices were in oh wait and this is what housing prices were now or are now and there's a lot of this misinformation that oh my gosh just because the chart is a little higher now that for some reason the housing market is destined to crash because i guess we can never net an upward trajectory of growth but the problem with this first argument of just throwing up a chart and saying this is what prices were in the past this is what they are now is that they don't compare to what interest rates have been and see the reality is over the last 13 years interest rates have fallen down and we already know the rule of 10x the rule of 10x says for every 1 that interest rates go down prices go up 10 percent so it's only natural that over the last 13 years we've seen interest rates decline in a steady trend that will also see housing prices go up in a steady trend now that's not suggesting that you know real estate should be propped up by cheap money i'm just suggesting that it is what it is when interest rates go down prices go up and it's important to kind of ignore the sensationalism that goes around okay hey look prices are going up charts going up that's bad it must mean it's going to come down soon it's not really a factual way to analyze whether or not the market's going to decline we'll talk about factual ways to analyze whether or not the market's going to decline very shortly but first another thing that a lot of individuals are doing now is they're talking about mortgage delinquencies most of these doom and gloom videos that exist on youtube suggest the housing market will have a serious crash because of quote serious housing delinquencies that are now through the roof they say that more than 2 million homeowners are seriously delinquent well here's the reality yes it's true according to analytics company black knight total delinquencies might be down nine percent and trending down but serious delinquencies of people not making their payments over the last 90 days are up five percent so you've got total delinquencies going down but it is true that serious delinquencies are trending up and so doom and gloom are say that's it this is all the proof we need we've got the charts going up and oh serious delinquencies are going up that's it that's all we need now we're going to have a crash but let's be real here 3.4 million mortgages about 6.87 of all mortgages are taking forbearance plans this allows people to prevent making their payments for up to one year for any reason you don't even need a reason you just raise your hand and say i'd like to take mortgage forbearance it's literally free money because you know as as we know if you don't pay money uh for 15 or 30 years well then that basically becomes free money if you invest the difference but the actual reality that we should pay attention to is the fact that many of these seriously delinquent homeowners might not actually need forbearance that is they might optionally be taking this as a form of additional stimulus now this isn't to say that there aren't people who actually need mortgage forbearance but the reality is anyone taking mortgage forbearance right now has a beautiful opportunity to prevent foreclosure has a beautiful opportunity to build an emergency fund and insulate themselves from future foreclosure issues and even at the end of a forbearance period in most cases you could take the money that you owe and add it to the back of the loan in other cases you're able to take advantage of things like loan modifications or other deferment plans to prevent going into foreclosure but to point at a statistic of mortgage delinquencies and say oh my gosh serious delinquencies are up that's it housing is screwed no it's doom and gloom and it's misleading until there's actual data that says okay here are 3.4 million people in forbearance and 1 million actually needed or else they're going into foreclosure then delinquencies mean nothing for us while mortgage forbearance is possible and frankly we might never have the actual data that says okay here are the actual people who need forbearance and here are those who are just taking it because it's basically free money and the fact of the matter is on this channel i've recommended people take mortgage forbearance i say all the time go to medkkevin.com forbearance and learn how to take mortgage forbearance in the proper way and not get screwed by banks and the reality is when you look at the cares act the law allows you to take mortgage forbearance with no documentation and no proof of income or no proof of hardship you just ask and so to me when doom and glooms say that's it this is a this is clear information that a foreclosure crisis is imminent delinquencies are so high they've never been this high it's a total misrepresentation of the facts now understanding home equity also becomes very important here core logic reports that in quarter two of 2020 by the way i will link all of my sources down below in quarter 2 2020 homeowner equity shot up 6.5 and negative equity fell 15 and corelogic reports that if prices today all of a sudden dropped 15 percent of people would be underwater that's it ninety-two percent of people would be above water they'd have more equity in their home despite a fifteen percent decline in prices it helps that real estate prices are trending upwards but the equity positions that people have now are relatively strong and after all just being under water doesn't mean you're going to be forced to sell your homes this is also very different from what we saw in 2008.
i hear a lot of doom and gloomers talk about 2008 2008 well then look at the data from 2008. people are taking negative amortization loans they're taking ninja loans no income no jobs no asset most of these loans were subprime loans when today it seems like only the highly qualified individuals who are actually getting loans so we have completely different buyers between 2008 and today now this isn't to do the old cliche this time is different we want to be aware of things that can cause the market to crash we're going to talk about those in just a moment but we also have to be able to rule out what's not actually going to cause problems even though it might be construed as a red flag for the market crashing soon but before we touch on that let's explain another reason why people say that the market is going to crash a lot of individuals point to the high unemployment rate that we have 7.9 percent unemployment this is the highest unemployment we've had since the last crash and the reality is that the real estate market has to give when unemployment is so high because people can't afford homes that the homeowner affordability levels are completely out of whack but unfortunately this is also not necessarily true see in my prior video on the real estate market crash i talked about the widening wealth gap of individuals and here's basically how that works the people who are affected in this pandemic are generally or at least on a majority basis the lower earners who increasingly are unemployed due to having worked in retail hospitality and entertainment but the reality is these are not the buying pool of buyers today today the people buying real estate are generally the higher income earners the tech engineers the medical professionals and those able to work from home those are the ones who are frequently able to take advantage of the lower interest rates we have now they've got the better credit profiles or better income standards and they're much more easily able to get into the real estate game and be more competitive so really what we're seeing here is as usual the rich getting richer and the poor staying behind doomers on youtube like to average this together oh well the unemployment rate is so high sure but that's very basic and easy to understand but when we zoom into the unemployment rate we kind of see we've got this dual economy we've got people who are not making it who are being left behind and a lot of them were affected by the pandemic again retail hospitality entertainment and then we have the other individuals who if anything have seen their income stabilize solidify or increase and they're the ones buying real estate now so we have this dual economy and just to look at you know one part of the economy and say that's it that's it market's going to crash because of that it's misleading the unemployment rate isn't affecting housing right now and this is exactly why all right so now we've got some of this cleaned up in terms of the doom and gloom information in terms of what's not going to lead the market to crash okay well what then is actually going to lead the market to crash first let's talk about an eviction crisis someone recently incorrectly quoted me and said that i used the wrong data they said that 30 to 40 million people are at risk of eviction and they said that to compare to what i said i said that 12 million households were subject to eviction and this to me is just another example of sensationalizing the statistics i'm using 12 million households are subject to eviction somebody else is using 30 million people are at risk of eviction we're talking about the same number here with an average of two and a half to three people per household but anyway let's talk about the real ways the housing market might decline number one the eviction crisis right now we're approximately 23 billion dollars behind in rent and a recent stout housing market report indicates that we will likely be over 30 billion dollars behind in rent as a nation by january this is a very serious problem an eviction crisis will lead to more housing inventory on the market a greater risk of foreclosures by landlords and a dampening of real estate prices however unfortunately congress is currently and has been negotiating a housing relief provision in the next stimulus package worth between 50 to 80 billion dollars if this package passes the eviction crisis and any potential housing crisis from the pandemic may likely be averted if this package does not pass then yes we have to start being concerned about an eviction crisis my last estimates were that without a relief package we may face 10 to 15 million evictions and remember those are households getting evicted not talking about individual people i'm concerned about housing inventory so i'm referring to households and i'm not saying i'm not concerned about people either i'm just trying to clarify anyway usually 30 of actual eviction filings end up turning into actual evictions because landlords can file an eviction but then sometimes the tenants leave or they make a deal with the landlord or whatever so if 30 of 10 to 15 million filings end up being actual evictions then we'll have around three to four million actual evictions and if half half of those ended up which i don't think i think that's very high ended up going on the market because landlords are like that's it i'm done being a landlord you would have two million additional homes hitting the market uh within the span of probably a year which is honestly a lot usually we sell somewhere between six to seven million homes per year an additional 2 million homes coming on the market on top of a normal year of 7 million homes selling would be like an increase of somewhere around 28 in inventory that's a lot now it's probably true that our markets right now need that 28 boost in inventory so it's kind of like please let's get some more houses on the market though nobody wants to you know pray for people to be evicted that would be bad and wrong but the point is there's so much demand right now that even if we had an eviction crisis and even if half of all of the evictions that went through ended up on the market for sale there's a good chance that a lot of these properties would just be absorbed into the buying pool but i do believe that prices would stop skyrocketing they'd sort of stabilize so if we're on the scale where we're doing this ten percent percent growth in real estate prices which is unsustainable and then we get this flood of new inventory fine maybe then we can go back to like two percent growth or something more normal two to three percent right that that is my expectation i don't believe though that a surge of inventory is suddenly going to cause real estate prices to fall so heavily that the market is going to crash from a real estate eviction crisis alone and remember this whole eviction crisis is assuming congress does not bail out tenants who are behind in rent if congress does that forget the eviction crisis then it's not happening now what's actually more important we've talked about this before but i want to make this very clear this is probably the number one biggest risk factor when it comes to a real estate crash the biggest risk factor is inflation when inflation goes up then the federal reserve is likely to increase interest rates and when they do that real estate prices can suffer very quickly now they don't always go down in the long term but in the short term purchasing power gets evaporated when interest rates go up and that's not very good so if we see inflation start taking up more than expected which we're not seeing right now then rates might go up and we could see real estate prices come down if an eviction crisis compounded with premature inflation that would be bad that would be a problem because remember if interest rates go up one percent what happens to housing prices they go down 10 and it's like instant it's very very fast now you could still have real estate prices trending upwards so if real estate prices are trending upwards five percent a year interest rates go up a percent yeah you might see a five percent decline in home prices year over year so they kind of offset each other right if you combine though an eviction crisis with premature inflation that's my opinion of when you could see a catastrophe in the real estate market so i'm not coming across as somebody who's trying to say like oh that's it the end of the world is is around the corner and i'm also not trying to come across as somebody saying nope real estate only goes up i'm not not doing either of those i want to take this very middle of the road approach and go well i'm not really worried about the unemployment number i mean it's a problem for society but not for housing because we have a different buyer pool looking at housing i'm not so worried about the uh you know the k shell or home index chart it it doesn't matter because you have to really build in what real estate interest rates have done into that chart i'm not so worried about mortgage delinquencies because i'm telling you like a good chunk of those are optional forbearance plans anyway and people are sucking that money into the stock market uh and and i am somewhat worried about the eviction crisis but the reality is we could see congress bail out the eviction crisis and then we don't have an eviction crisis anymore so to me the real danger comes to inflation but at the same time the european central bank just announced that they had their second month in a row of deflation so we're actually seeing in the world a trend towards deflation not towards inflation and every time i mention you know we're not seeing much inflation i get a ton of comments in the comments section of people going oh wow have you seen food prices lately yes yes i have and there are certain supply shocks that cause prices to go up but when we look at the overall value of our money the overall value of our money isn't declining via inflation so heavily at the moment uh it and until that happens we're probably not going to see interest rates go up keep in mind the federal reserve has instituted a new policy called fate flexible average inflation targeting and they probably won't raise rates anyway until they've actually seen consistent inflation for a year or two so most estimates right now suggest we won't see inflation until somewhere around 20 24 25 some even say this entire decade we could expect low interest rates so keep this in mind if you hear drama about the housing market you know hopefully this kind of you know puts everything into a little bit better perspective for you as always of course i've got a youtube course as well and a sales course and stock course so check those out lots of things down below for you to choose from most people by the way start with zero to millionaire real estate investing you can join the live streams as well and of course check out that deal machine partnership i'm really excited for that app i think it's a brilliant idea ]
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