저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 엔비디아가 여전히 연 15% 허들레이트는 충족하지만, GPU 사이클 리스크와 테슬라·메타·구글의 자체 칩 경쟁, 메타 라마 모델의 저연산 효율화를 이유로 비중을 줄이고 밸류에이션이 낮은 AI 관련주(테슬라, 유아이패스 등)로 이동 중이라고 설명했다. 단기적으로는 금리인하 이후 랠리가 일단 쉬어가는 국면이며 실적이 다음 상승 동력이 될 것이라고 봤다. 러셀2000은 금리인하 발표 전 선반영 후 '재료 소멸' 성격이라고 평가했다. 구글·애플·아마존은 챗GPT 류 AI로 검색·광고·앱 플랫폼이 중개자 역할을 잃을 위험이 있다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
and as far as Nvidia goes there are a few reasons we uh we take some pause it it still meets our minimum hurdle rate of return so 15% at a compound annual rate over five years and so you'll see it in some of our more specialized portfolios uh we're we're looking for uh better values but the the risks to uh Nvidia would include cyclical when I hear shortages shortages shortages about gpus or anything I begin to think about um about the cyclicality of a group uh competition Tesla is coming up with its own chip uh meta platforms Google their own chips uh for more specialized large language models uh and and then the tech itself we're learning from meta platforms the Llama model uh is able to do with less computing power but more data uh it's able to deliver better models so there are puts and takes here as there always are how many frustrated investors have got in touch with you via Twitter or the other forms in which you connect with your your own purchases or the ETFs I mean there must have been a lot of frustration that you kept it in some funds but not the main Ark ETF well I'll tell you what has happened mostly is people who understood the Nvidia story we were pounding the table on it on 2014 you know really till 2021 um and many people actually put it into their portfolios their own portfolios and they may have held it we have not gotten uh much push back and the reason is people know uh that we are on we are on AI but we're doing it in a little bit of a differentiated way Nvidia has become a check the box stock that's why the valuation is where it is um uh but we are looking for those plays uh that have not only the the vision from management team point of View and Broad distribution but also proprietary data and AI expertise so uh we're just pivoting to another set of plays that most people have not discovered yet Kathy Wood explains why Ark invest sold its Nvidia stock despite the company's expected growth in the coming years Arc had been early investors in Nvidia but they recently sold due to its high valuation compared to other AI driven companies like Tesla and uipath while Nvidia remains a strong AI play would highlights concerns about potential cyclical risks and Rising competition as companies like Tesla and meta are developing their own chips and advancements like meta's llama model require less computing power W also mentions that nvidia's high valuation makes it less appealing when compared to other companies with lower valuations but similar AI potential she emphasizes ark's strategy of seeking underappreciated companies with strong AI prospects such as Tesla and uipath which they believe will offer better long-term growth opport opportunities while Nvidia still meets ark's hurdle rate of return they are shifting Focus to other air related plays with more attractive valuation in addition discusses broader AI opportunities in the AR portfolio stating that 90% of the companies they invest in are leveraging AI to innovate and enhance their product she also notes potential disruptions from AI tools like chat GPT to Major tech companies such as Google Apple and Amazon which could face competition from AI driven Alternatives in search e-commerce and other services you were in Nvidia before it was cool you were buying it at $4 back in 2014 you rode the way from this particular stock Kathy to 330 back in 20121 but the recent rally you've missed because the flagship Arc Innovation ETF you sold out of your main stake back in January why yes uh so if you um uh we're very positive on Nvidia we have been very positive on Nvidia we bought it down when it hit nearly $100 uh in the fourth quarter last year uh and and then it tripled as some of our other uh AI oriented stocks Stood Still so uh you know we're looking at believe it or not many people do not believe this about us we're looking at relative valuations of uh names in the AI space and we were looking at uh Nvidia 25 time sales which is where it is we have small cap up 10% midap up 8% Jones like dividend index up 12% S&P up four right Tech down 0.11 utilities up 17 and A2 real estate up 162 and financials up 10 and a half and so what I see is a ton of that expectation was pulled forward up until the rate cut right and then everyone just took a pause right fine fair enough whenever you have and this goes to your point it shouldn't be so easy to make money fine we made a ton of money in those sectors up until the cut now we're just pausing I here here's the thing I think you think it's over from there I think it's a pause and what I think we need from here on because we know we're in a soft Landing right no one's questioning that we've been in a soft Landing for a long time it looks like we're going to be in a soft Landing for a long time after this what we need now is earnings so for the next two weeks there's no Catalyst to keep it going all of that all of that those huge returns quarter date were pulled forward now we sit here and you get some data you get BuyBacks and things thinging JP Morgan's trading desk by the way says we're bullish inclined to buy every dip they want to stay tact t uh tactically bullish the macro setup is supportive of the rally into year end they also agree choppiness is likely but aren't they right we're all right it is still a a bull market right a lot of growth was pulled forward things have faded I think choppiness buy dips in individual stocks you get them I mean you always bite it that's always a smart move um but I I think every you know it sounds so lame but I think everyone kind of right here it's a bull market it's going to trade off on leadership we've already seen that I think that continues but we really really need earnings to see to to keep that to keep the utilities to keep Jo Point well taken though that that the Russell you had a lot of people come on the network have conversations with me leading up to the cut suggesting hey you can't buy the Russell until you get the cut now you got the cut and people aren't buying the Russell uh it's true okay so now you got the cut the Russell what's it up to your to date right can I give you three words sell the news the Russ Russell's up 9 and half% year to date the Russell anticipated the news that was announced on Wednesday afternoon and to me it was a classic sell the news moment I will be the first person to step in and to go bu small caps if I see the type of price action that's suggesting that you do exactly that but to me you're talking about the quarter and it's been a strong quarter for the Russell relative to the other areas of the market to me that was all an anticipation of what was announced on Wednesday and what was delivered on the other side of that was a selda news moment for the Russ there's actually quite a few though it seems relatively limited overall AI Focus names that you have am I missing something there are the far more AI exposure within your Flagship fund or are you really just deciding that there are going to be a few key names that you back no twilio would be another name almost every company except for well actually even including uh the multiomics companies like exact Sciences uh uh are using uh their own proprietary data and their broad distribution networks to gather information and create better products and services so I would say almost every company that we have in the portfolio is in some way shape or form we ask the question how are you harnessing this uh powerful tool called uh artificial intelligence and I would say 90% of the names in the portfolio are harnessing it and do have proprietary data what caught my eye and we've actually seen so much disruption already to the market capitalization of companies when they have found themselves disrupted by for example a chat gbt I think of C the education company but you noted that Apple for example its apps platform could be disintermediated by chat GPT platforms is that a key company that we need to worry about being disrupted what other names do you think that come to mind that maybe the market has it wrong on how much they could be overwhelmed by this new competitor well uh for Google uh chat G GPT was either the worst thing that has ever happened to it or or maybe the best thing uh we tend to think it's going to be disintermediated though uh by chat GPT and other chat Bots we're not going to need the kind of search and therefore advertising that drives uh Google's model so we we do worry uh about that one um and as you said uh uh Apple uh you know there are many people who think that even Amazon is going to be disrupted not only by social commerce so people just uh shopping through Instagram uh it also could be disintermediated as if consumers use chat G GPT and other AI tools to say I want exactly this kind of item at the cheapest price anywhere in the world uh and it would go directly to that source so you know any platform that has served as you know an intermediary is uh is at risk we would say kathywood explains Arc invest decision to sell Nvidia despite its projected growth due to concerns about high valuation and emerging competition in the AI space Ark shifted Focus to companies like Tesla and uipath which have lower valuations but strong AI potential what also highlights the cyclical risks and competition from companies like meta and Tesla which are developing their own chips and technologies that could challenge nvidia's dominance in addition wood emphasizes that many companies in arc's portfolio are utilizing AI to drive Innovation with 90% of them leveraging proprietary data and AI tools she also discusses the potential disruptions AI could cause to Major platforms like Google Apple and Amazon as new technologies like chat GPT change the landscape of of search e-commerce and more arc's strategy is to invest in underappreciated companies with strong AI prospects and long-term growth potential do you agree with ark's decision to sell Nvidia in favor of other AI driven companies like Tesla and uipa why or why not how do you think emerging AI Technologies like chat GPT will impact major platforms like Google and Amazon in the long run
Comments 0