저자: BillSmead · 외국인
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한줄결론: 버핏 90세 기념 특집으로, 스미드는 현재 시장이 고평가되어 버핏이 최대 방어 모드라고 보며 향후 S&P500 성과가 부진할 것으로 전망함. 버핏의 투자 교훈: 가장 좋은 투자는 자기 자신에 대한 투자이며, 특히 소통 능력을 키우면 가치가 최소 50% 오른다고 주장함. 스미드의 버핏 투자 원칙: 위기 때 우량 기업을 매수하고 장기 보유하는 것이 버핏의 핵심 교훈이며, 울타(ULTA) 매수 사례를 제시함. 스미드의 버핏 비판: 버핏과 멍거가 경기침체를 두려워해 벤 그레이엄식 저평가 매수 기회를 놓쳤다고 비판함. 2020년 3~4월 그레이엄식 투자 기회가 최고였다는 주장. 버핏의 현재 행보: 최근 항공주 4개사를 매수 후 손실 매도했고, JP모건·웰스파고 지분을 줄였으며, 배릭골드와 아마존을 매수한 것으로 언급됨. 스미드는 실무 담당자(톰 콤스 또는 테드 웨슬러)의 결정일 것이라 추정하며, 자사주 50억 달러 매입과 뱅크오브아메리카 추가 매수도 언급함. 시장 밸류에이션 경고: 미국 시가총액/GDP 비율(버핏 지표)이 사상 최고치를 경신했음. 스미드는 80~100배 PER 성장주가 25배로 하락하면 큰 고통이 올 것이라 경고함. 스미드의 장기 전망: 향후 5~10년간 S&P500 성과가 형편없을 것으로 예상하며, 버핏이 현금을 쌓고 있는 것이 이를 보여준다고 주장함. 원자재 전망: 유가 대비 금 가격 비율이 2.2%로 역사적 저점 수준이라고 언급하며, 향후 20년간 미국 경제는 여전히 휘발유에 의존할 것이고 밀레니얼 세대의 휘발유 사용이 10년 내 두 배가 될 것이라며 유가 상승 가능성을 시사함. 주의: 자막 자동인식 오류로 인해 일부 종목명(배릭골드 등)과 인물명이 부정확할 수 있음.
다듬은 글
all this week we're celebrating the oracle of omaha warren buffett as he marks his 90th birthday on sunday and of course there are lessons we can all learn from buffett when it comes to investing luckily for us we share the most important investment that we all need to make right here on yahoo finance take a listen by far the best investment you can make is in yourself i mean that for example communication skills i tell the students that come that they're going to graduate schools and business and they're learning all these complicated formulas and all that if they just learn to communicate better and both in writing and in person they increase their value at least 50 percent no i mean uh if you can't communicate somebody says you know it's like winking at a girl in the dark nothing happens you know basically and and you have to be able to get get both your ideas and uh and that's that's relatively easy i did it myself with the dale carnegie of course some people wish i'd taken a shorter course now in terms of my talking later on but it it's just hugely important and you if you invest in yourself nobody can take it away from you all right let's bring in bill smead of smead capital management he is a long time berkshire hathaway shadow holder uh bill always good to speak with you i i've always viewed you as the the buffett whisperer so after all these years of holding berkshire's stock what's the biggest uh investing lesson that mr buffett has given to you well i i think buying good quality securities when people are scared to death being greedy when others are fearful in meritorious companies uh you just had a segment on ulta and we uh we bought some ulta earlier this year during all the the the concerns and you know we're off to a pretty good start with it it's a pretty wonderful business and i don't think that people are not gonna uh young ladies are not gonna want to put their makeup on so uh buffett was big in stepping into high quality businesses at a time of great distress and then holding for a long time those two things now you were pretty clear bill earlier this summer in your criticism of buffett and his longtime cohort charlie munger you said that they were scared by the economic downturn do you still believe that well yes my criticism was mainly uh you know there's kind of two camps to value one camp is what i just mentioned you take a highly thought of growth company and everybody stumbles at some point in time everyone stumbles uh although you wouldn't think so if you watch what's been going on the market lately but everyone stumbles and who's ready and has the courage to step in the other camp in the growth camp is what he was taught by ben graham uh he you know he went and lived in new york city and worked for graham newman and ben graham would buy a hundred stocks that were selling at 50 percent of their liquidation value well the best trades the best buys at the lowe's in march and april were the ben graham ideas and he never mentioned a word about that he didn't say well we can't really do the ben graham thing because we have way too much capital so it wasn't a great time to be scared if you were a ben graham investor it it it and it didn't end up being a great time to be scared for anybody thanks to the federal reserve board bill is a berkshire shareholder do you believe it's time for warren buffett to pass the baton well he already is passing the baton for example uh one of your competitor organizations put out that the buffett's favorite indicator the uh market capitalization of the u.s stock market to the gdp uh broke a record yesterday uh it's the highest it's ever been uh and so buffett whenever you're getting a crunch like we did in oh 809 he looked at the uh market trading for 7.75 of of the gdp and said this is a pretty good time to buy not because he had any optimism about what was going on but because if you look at 60 70 years of history that is a pretty good point at which to uh to to buy so now we're at the opposite end of that spectrum and buffett is holding cash and position his portfolio for lousy s p 500 results the next five to ten years you can just see it in his actions he is playing max caution max defense right now while the rest of the market is out there dancing in delight what do you make of of some of buffett's moves this past summer i mean you had buffett he bet he bet on the big four airlines against his own advice then he dumped them at a loss um he also cut his his holdings in jp morgan and wells fargo um and he invested in barrett gold um what does that tell you about warren buffett or at least the people who are making the decisions at berkshire hathaway we haven't found out yet but i bet every dollar in my checking account that one of his underlings bought the barrick gold in the same way one of his underlings bought bought the amazon and by the way the underling did quite well on the amazon it's probably almost doubled from where they bought it so that would be todd combs or ted wessler that did that uh the uh the answer is he uh again he built his cash position despite spending five billion dollars on his own stock and adding to his bank america position uh so the answer is he is playing max defense right now well i was going to ask you real quickly about you mentioned the the market capitalization uh buffett indicator i wrote about that about two weeks ago uh starting to hit worrisome levels do you think that's a measure is it an outdated measure are you concerned about the levels where that sits now well i love your question uh matt nathan's had a song the last couple of years uh and the tagline was i've got a king-sized bed and a phd in the way things used to be and when you're a value manager like us that owns quality value and and buys uh outstanding and wonderful businesses when they get distressed uh and you watch novices buy futuristic expensive stocks and make a whole bunch of money and watch the most aggressive growth managers just shoot numbers up the tree like you can't believe you feel like you're you're an old-timer and you don't know what you're doing anymore and i can tell you that that that when everyone knows that something is so nobody knows nothing and when those 80 and 100 time pe multiples become 25 multiples heartache and agony is going to get inflicted on people and those of us that stick to our tortoise disciplines of owning very attractive and reasonably priced securities i mean let me just give you one example i i we looked at a chart yesterday of the price of oil in relation to gold and in the last 40 years the range has been uh two percent of the of the gold price to 16 percent of the gold price and right now it's 2.2 percent so so people are super excited about gold in relation to oil they hate oil they love esg they they love the green new deal concepts etc etc but let's face it for the next 20 years the united states economy is going to exist on gasoline and we just started moving millennials around the country and forcing them to buy a car and the millennials are going to use twice as much gasoline in 10 years as they do right now and and what do you think the price oil is going to do well we'll have to leave it there for now uh but uh bill smeed uh let him have it uh always good to see you and have a great weekend thank you have a great weekend
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