저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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알리바바 2023년 실적 발표 분석 결론: 매출 성장은 둔화(약 2%)지만 현금흐름과 순현금이 강해 장기 매력이 있다고 봄. 실적 개요: 분기 매출 전년비 약 2% 성장, 3월 이후 회복세. 중국 소비지출은 4월 약 15% 증가. 클라우드 등 일부 사업부는 중고성장. 비용 구조: 판관비 전년비 약 2% 감소, R&D는 횡보로 비용 통제가 양호하다고 평가. 현금흐름: 연간 잉여현금흐름 약 250억 달러, 순현금 약 580억 달러. 시가총액 약 2170억 달러 기준 FCF 수익률 약 15.7%. 자사주 매입은 분기 19억 달러 수준으로 소극적이라는 비판. 수익성: EBITDA 마진은 주요 부문에서 개선 추세. 지배구조/분할: 자본관리위원회 신설. 클라우드 분할 상장 가능성(Dan Ives는 긍정적 평가), 로지스틱스(Cainiao) 67% 보유분 IPO 계획, Lazada·AliExpress 외부 자금 조달 계획. 클라우드는 틱톡 사용 축소에 따른 성장 둔화가 관건. 주가/투자자: 마이클 배리가 지분을 두 배로 늘렸고, 찰리 멍거는 지분 유지. 출연자는 단기 주가 반등보다 장기 보유 관점이며 배리는 너무 일찍 투자해 단기 성과는 부진할 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 본인은 커버드콜 전략으로 올해 약 8~10% 수익을 냈다고 언급. 리스크: 중국 시장 전반의 하락세, 틱톡 관련 규제(몬태나주 금지), 자사주 매입 확대 여부 불확실성. 출연자 전망: 알리바바는 현금흐름 대비 저평가 상태이며 주주환원 확대 시 긍정적이나, 단기 방향은 명확히 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys Trey socks I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and today we're going to talk about the quarterly results for Alibaba polymunger Michael Berry bought more we're going to talk about their earnings and why I still think it's one of the best investments available in the market right now all right so they reported their earnings this week and that this is for their full year 2023 their their calendar is offset but we also have the news this week that Michael burry basically doubled his Alibaba shareholdings the most recent 13-f filing yeah and by JD he's been buying yeah at exact njd as well and then Munger has been holding steady for the last couple quarters here um personally I've been kind of holding the study now as far as the market goes and what I thought about the earnings earnings came out pre-market and uh Market wasn't really too happy about what they had to say I guess what do you think was this them specifically because so I was day traded that morning and every single Chinese stock was down like all of them okay so I didn't know if it was a market thing or not I didn't put a specific uh comparison in here for like another kind of Chinese Tech stock um but yeah interesting thought from that standpoint is whether or not it was more macro but I want to talk about them individually as far as like you know what the headlines were about this quarterly you know report here so the main kind of point that you see a lot of news media pick up here is that they're going to be splitting up the company more and more they're they're announcing multiple IPOs for different sections of the company and overall the top of the line rolls two percent not great now Alibaba did give some color in terms of how you know the quarter evolved if you will saying that um you know they were down initially for the first couple months of the quarter but then by March they were basically back positive and we also had the kind of data as far as Chinese consumer spending those up like 15 in April so I think the next quarter should be better for them as far as like a top line revenue growth you know perspective but you know they were still able to turn a little poultry two percent growth year over year not great but not horrible it's not bad if they they were negative for the first two months yeah yeah exactly now you know this is that two percent year over year they actually have both the year-ended numbers and the three months ended here the cool thing you're seeing here is look at all these other segments although there are smaller portions of Revenue here the single you know single digits there all these other units are growing you know mid-teens or even high 20 as far as like growth rates yeah so one of the goals of management to unlock the value for shareholders is to try to unleash these smaller subsidiaries a little bit and the way you kind of capitalize on that is by having them be their own Standalone units right as far as adding to the sum evaluation part you know for Alibaba entity Alibaba Holden group right it is funny because like if you had told me the sections of business I would have said in America Cloud would have grown the most but that one grew the least there's a separate thing about Cloud I kind of want to mention there we'll get to it when we talk about that second individually uh this is just kind of breaking looking at their overall cost structure basically they haven't gotten anything crazy as far as like bloat right is the point here they've been able to control costs pretty well um the only one really notable here I thought was the sales of marketing was down two percent like you know year over year so you know able to control their expenses they're a little bit investing a little bit more and you know General administrative and then also like you know when you look at the uh r d that was roughly flat I would say basically compared to last year nothing too crazy there okay now this is in my opinion the sexiest thing about Alibaba group ooh all right yeah it's all about cash cash flow yeah year ended 29 billion dollars in cash flow right in terms of free cash flow after they've you know put their money back to the business in terms of keeping it running you're still talking about 25 billion dollars that's this guy right here in free cash flow sexy right I'm gonna look up their market cap because I don't remember it yeah it comes up in the end don't worry Dylan I actually did that before okay thank you yeah yeah exactly so should we purchase now you know this has kind of been something that I would really like to see them being far more aggressive with the only one bought back like 1.9 billion dollars in shares the normal tracing quarter that's pretty pathetic for a company that has a positive net cash position here of look at that sexy number 58 billion USD yeah that doesn't make me feel warm inside because I I know that they they extended how much they were willing to buy so you would think if they're very happy with their business they would buy at these what they would consider low prices but they're not completely agree okay well I'm gonna get into a little bit more a little bit later on um you know this is another one I thought that was kind of interesting and a little sexy here so they're looking at the change in ebitda ebitda is earnings right that's that's what it basically represents so it's earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization which are real expenses but what they're trying to do here is highlight the profitability of each segment right although these segments are ultimately more most of them are are still money losers here exception of you know cloud and China Commerce if you look at the actual ebitda margin year over year change they're having Positive Growth as far as the even a margin across their entire business sector okay yeah that's pretty dope that's bad it's pretty Doom that's great yeah I can't can't get too mad at that so you know this is where we're talking about Chevy purchases a little bit more like I said they bought back uh I say it was 1.9 billion area right here uh in the show reports of program the most recent quarter they still have 19.4 billion authorized under the current what the hell because it's until March 2025 that's literally 23 22 months from now so why wouldn't they why do they only do 2 billion I don't know I don't know it looks like they may have some kind of bigger things in the work though this next section down here I think it's kind of interesting this Capital Management committee they basically have formed a new committee on their board that's going to look at the way they should be redeploying this Capital back to shareholders you know so border directs is a form of New Capital Management committee to undertake a comprehensive Capital Management plan to enhance shareholder value all right so that's what their goal is to try to deliver this money back to shareholders some way committee will review and decide important matters related to Alibaba group's activities as a holding company including Capital Market transactions that you know okay that's they need to borrow more or you know IPL and those sort of things um shareholder return initiatives and subsidiary Equity initiative plans or Center plans sorry fundraisings IPOs and spin-offs so there really are in a transition period where they're trying to figure out how to take their cash pile and all these other subsidiaries and arrange them in a way that delivers the most value for us Alibaba shareholders yeah so they have a committee to maximize efficiency exactly you know they have that 58 billion dollars in positive net cash they have all these multiple units that have some of them very very large you know go through rates of 29 for the Logistics Group not that long ago um they're trying to figure out how they should arrange themselves in terms of delivering the shareholder value okay so this is some of the plans here and I wanted to give you my little takeout on these so you know as far as spinning off Alibaba Cloud now basically this is Dan Ives he's an analyst here it's saying there's a no-brainer strategic move and he believes that some other parts evaluation of Baba is that the cloud would be uh more valuable as independent unit and add more to the overall ownership stake for Alibaba shareholders now there is one thing that has been troubled me with Cloud for a while there is this rumor that you know bite dance had to transition away from them you know um from a tick tock perspective however they have yet to say exactly when that kind of transition period will be over that they're decelerating in terms of their their you know usage by Tick Tock and bite dance but they haven't given us an idea when we can expect to return Alibaba Cloud to actual growth because they won't have this overhang of a large customer that's been slowly transitioning off platform that's what I think has been staggering these Alibaba Cloud numbers for the last like a year and a half and it that's probably gonna accelerate didn't Montana just ban Tick-Tock they're like the first date right they did yeah just this week yep that was pretty interesting news I haven't like looked into the details of that either it's uh interesting I would say in terms of the fact that you now have multiple you know or kind of someone actually finally put the boot to the ground all right that's what I'm trying to say um in terms of their other platforms the Lazada and AliExpress they're talking about they'd be raising money outside of their current Alibaba Capital manager which I don't know how I felt about that like you know they have 58 billion dollars in positive cash and if they truly thought this was going to be a lucrative investment why are they not doing it in entirely internally you know rather than taking out outside capital I don't yeah I don't know because they have so much cash they have a significant amount of cash you haven't showed the slide it but I'm gonna guess they said 58 billion I'm gonna guess they're at least like 25 30 cash their market cap oh yeah yeah that's coming up here in a minute okay yeah because I mean I don't know why they don't do that either that's weird yeah yeah I didn't love that um and you know the the actual growth rate here for Lazada is pretty solid um you know same thing with the the canal Logistics they currently own 67 of the whole company and they are planning to IPO this that makes sense this is this is a unit with the 29 growth rate just right smoking hot numbers I can imagine that the valuation would be a significantly larger outside of Alibaba than within Alibaba so it makes sense that it would be a you know kind of lucrative for Alibaba shareholders and then uh this other one the fresh hippo whether or not they're going to list that as an individual IPO I I didn't see any individual growth rates on Fresh hippo I know it's a grocery chain I don't know like how large this would be so I kind of left that one as like a neutral like I don't really know if this matters or not but it's interesting as far as their overall plan as far as you know making value back to shareholders yeah the the IPOs of all the different segments are gonna get real real fun the next two years yeah exactly so this is this is my Fun World numbers slide here okay we're talking about 217 billion dollar market cap as it closed on Friday 58 billion dollars net cash position that gives you 159 billion Enterprise Value they made 25 billion in trillion 12 months free cash flow it's a 15.7 free cash flow yield yeah yeah so that's that's disgusting here's here's the most important thing the most important analysis that you didn't that you didn't say right and that is Michael burry is invested and he's super super early so that means we're going to get no gains for a year because he's notoriously incredibly early it's very important that's okay with me I I've gone back to my stupid complete and utter moronic uh you know covered call uh system so I've been doing that again because I can't stay away I'm like a moth to a flame the Theta Decay just attracts me and then I burned to my death yeah I'm are you positive on that I'm so afraid it's just Baba because it it trades 20 hours a day I don't do chemicals on that yeah so I I rolled one overall I'm not really sure I think I am positive but I'm not entirely sure I can't back that up with numbers I probably should have tracked this individually I can tell you that I'm still performing this Vibe I'm more than like I think eight or ten percent this year so so far so good all right all right guys uh let us know what you think have a good one that's nice one
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