저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 달러 패권의 쇠퇴와 부채한도 반복 상향이 결국 재정·달러 위기를 부른다고 주장하며, 금 가격의 대폭 상승을 전망한다. 달러 패권과 금: 달러가 세계 경제에 피해를 주었고 미국은 인플레이션을 해외로 수출했다고 주장한다. 금은 4000달러보다 훨씬 높아져야 실물 통화 지위 회복이 가능하다고 본다. 달러 지수는 115 고점에서 현재 약 101까지 완만하게 하락했으며, 80~70 부근 이하로 떨어지면 하락이 가속되고 붕괴 가능성이 있다고 말한다. 부채한도: 현재 부채한도는 약 31.4조 달러이며, 한도를 계속 올리는 것이 문제의 핵심이라고 주장한다. 공화당·민주당 모두 실질적 지출 삭감 없이 정치적 연출만 한다고 비판하며, 지속적 상향은 결국 채무 위기를 피할 수 없게 만든다고 본다. 무역적자와 달러 위기: 미국 상품무역적자가 1월 기준 1076억 달러로 역대 최고를 기록했다고 언급한다. 무역적자 축소 과정에서 연간 약 1조 달러 규모의 상품이 사라지고 미국인의 소비 여력이 줄어든다고 본다. 외국인 예금자 보호 차별 등으로 해외 투자자들의 달러 자산 축소가 서서히 진행 중이라고 진단한다. 기술 투자: AI 등 최근 기술 발전이 효율성을 높여 장기적으로 자유시장이 경제를 회복시킬 수 있다고 본다. 다만 그 과정은 매우 험난하며 많은 투자자가 손실을 입을 것이라고 경고한다. 출연자 전망: 달러 지위 약화가 진행 중이며 부채 문제 해결을 위해 한도 상향 중단이 필요하다는 입장을 유지한다.
다듬은 글
the U.S dollar has done substantial damage to the global economy because it was the Reserve I mean we have basically exported our inflation all around the world and the world has suffered from this uh relationship America has gained well I think gold is going a lot higher than four thousand dollars um and and I think it probably needs to be a lot higher um for there to be the type of economic environment that would make such a candidacy you know kind of feasible as a as a reality Peter Schiff the chief Economist at europacific Asset Management believes that the era of U.S dollar Supremacy is gradually fading away according to Schiff gold is poised to regain its status as authentic currency as historical patterns repeat themselves Schiff also addresses the debt crisis in the United States the consequences of the dollarization and shares insights on his potential presidential candidacy the debt ceiling refers to the maximum amount of money that the United States can spend which is currently set at approximately 31.4 trillion dollars normally increasing the government's spending limits is a standard procedure Peter posted a tweet experts agree that if the debt selling is not raised and the US government is no longer able to borrow that it will be impossible for the government to pay its bills that means the U.S has already borrowed more than it can repay either default or massive inflation is inevitable in another tweet he said the problem is the debt not the ceiling the problem will never be solved if Congress keeps raising the ceiling the U.S is definitely headed for a sovereign debt and dollar crisis but not because Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling but because it succeeds the problem is the debt it's not the ceiling in fact the ceiling is actually part of the solution the problem is they keep raising the ceiling every time we approach it or hit it as opposed to doing something to stay within the ceiling that was the whole purpose of the debt ceiling which actually started back in 1917 coinciding with America's entry into the first world war and the fact that we were borrowing a lot of money and so Congress wanted to put some kind of cap on how much money the government could borrow and the problem is you know we keep raising the ceiling and so it's not really achieving its intended purpose which was to put some limit on how much debt we could accumulate but every time we get to the ceiling though we just get all this political theater um where the Republicans pretend they actually want to cut spending but they don't actually propose any significant spending cuts and of course the Democrats don't want to cut any spending nobody wants to raise taxes at least not on the middle class which is where all the money is and so the debt ceiling always gets raised this is all political posturing this is throwing meat to your base but at the end of the day the politicians will come together and once again do the wrong thing and raise the debt ceiling in contrast to what they claim this is not about paying our bills if we were going to pay our bills we would pay them and not raise the debt ceiling this is about continuing to not pay our bills instead of paying our bills we borrow the money and we can't continue to avoid paying our bills unless we raise the debt ceiling so that's what it's about it's not about doing the responsible thing it's about continuing to do The Reckless and irresponsible thing Democrats are saying hey you know if we don't raise this debt ceiling it's a disaster interest rates are going to rise everybody's going to suffer that is what's going to happen if we do raise the debt ceiling see all the bad things that they say are going to happen if we don't raise it are going to happen because we have been raising it the fact that we've keep we keep raising a ceiling guarantees a debt crisis because the only thing that's going to put a stop to the debt is a crisis and so we've chosen to have a crisis on the markets terms instead of trying to manage something less horrific on our own terms Peter Schiff has issued a cautionary statement highlighting the imminent threat of a death blow to the US dollar Schiff predicts that the ongoing financial crisis will lead to the loss of the Dollar's Global Reserve currency status and tweet Peter said as if foreigners didn't have enough incentives to dump their US dollar dollars the FDIC just gave him another foreign customers of svb weren't extended the same protection as domestic customers and will take heavy losses the message to foreigners is clear don't Bank in the U.S and the dollar crashes and it's it will crash that means other currencies are rising now what does that mean that means As Americans get poorer everybody else gets richer and so Americans consume less and everybody else consumes more all the stuff that Americans used to buy will be too expensive for Americans to afford but that stuff is still going to be here the factories aren't going to start producing it just because Americans stop consuming it so what's going to happen is people in other countries are going to get to buy what the Americans can no longer afford see they're not buying it right now because the Americans are outbidding them so all this is going to change and it's you know a big loss for the US and again for the rest of the world I don't think anybody is really dumping dollars yet I think they're slowly divesting I don't think it's it's a rush for the exit yet I think that's ultimately going to happen and when that does happen the Dollar's exchange rate is going to be deteriorating at a far more rapid Pace I mean so far the decline from the peak of around 115 to where we are now around 101 that's been very slow and steady and orderly and I think that it will continue to be slow and steady maybe until the dollar Index gets around 80 or maybe 70 but once it cracks below that level I expect the pace to really accelerate and potentially into a you know an outright crash uh in the dollar early in this month Pierre posted a tweet the U.S merchandise trade deficit surged again to a new all-time record high of 107.6 billion dollars in January the U.S economy is a complete disaster the Russia situation is buying the dollar some extra time but with exploding trade deficits this reprieve can't last much longer Peter believes in the substantial technological Investments we've made over the years recent advancements like AI hold great promise improve efficiency and better tools are the outcomes we can expect the reason that our uh consumption-based economy works is because of the dollar status you know we're able to export dollars and import real Goods we have a trillion dollar a year trade deficit and we pay for all that merchandise just by printing money so we don't have to expend any resources uh yet we can import a trillion dollars worth of goods that the rest of the world uh consumed considerable researches resources producing so the first thing that's going to happen is we're not going to be able to run these trade deficits anymore our trade is going to have to be brought into balance and that means basically let's say a trillion dollars worth of merchandise every year disappears from our shelves and there's really nothing to replace it with the good news is that we've had a lot of technological Investments over the years and and even recently you can see what's going on with AI and the promise that that might bring and so to the extent that we are more efficient we have better tools uh it'll make it easier for the free market to get us out of this hole and to rebuild a viable self-sustaining economy again but the the path from here to there is is very bumpy and you know a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money along the way the world is witnessing the decline of the US dollar the global economic situation has posed a challenge to its dominance among International investors Peter believes that if we continue raising the debt ceiling it will lead to a crisis Peter suggests that the solution lies in stopping the continuous raising of the debt ceiling to wrap up our discussion today we invite you to leave your thoughts in the comments section if you found this content useful please show your support by giving it a thumbs up and subscribing to our channel for the latest news and videos thanks for joining us
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