저자: Eric · 외국인
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엔비디아가 2분기 매출 가이던스를 하향(67억 달러 vs 기존 81억 달러)하고 재고 충당금 약 13.2억 달러를 반영, 게이밍 부진이 원인. 재고 과잉·수요 둔화는 2018년 상황과 유사해 매수 기회로 봄. 칩스법(520억 달러) 등 반도체 정책 수혜 가능성과 데이터센터·자동차 성장을 장점으로 언급. 밸류에이션은 비싸지만 장기 DCA 관점에서 긍정적. 단기 지지선 160~170달러 부근 하락 시 분할 매수 고려.
다듬은 글
i've been getting absolutely lit up about nvidia people are reaching out like hey you're the nvidia guy eric what's going on with nvidia is the stock a buy now or not is the stock going lower in this video today we're gonna break down that pre-announcement they got it down significantly yesterday before earnings at the end of the month we're going to go through that snip it by snippet we're going to talk about the ramifications for each segment we're going to talk about the bear case and the bowl case we're going to look at the valuation of the company some future growth opportunities for the company and then we're going to look at a chart and i'm gonna tell you if i think nvidia stock is a buy now or not let's get into it all right what's going on with nvidia is the stock of buy now or not so preliminary second quarter revenue that reported 6.7 billion versus outlook of 8.1 billion dollars ouch that's a significant miss in fact 20 lowered revenue as well as gross margin guidance they told us that these weak numbers were caused really by gaming second quarter revenue is expected to be approximately 6.7 billion down 19 sequentially and up three percent from the prior year now part of this guys we've talked about tough comps nvidia is gonna have some really tough comps especially when you think of the pandemic people staying home and play more games you've got some pull through if you already upgraded your equipment you might not upgrade it right away you also have crypto mining we'll talk about more of that in a second but think of those tough comps that's part of it they've grown massively over the last several years gaming revenue was 2.04 billion down 44 sequentially which is a big number down 33 from the prior year on a positive note data center revenue we'll talk more about this later was 3.81 billion that's all only up one percent sequentially but 61 from the prior year now the shortfall relative to the may revenue outlook of 8.1 billion primarily because of gaming products says here again reflecting reduction in channel partner sales likely due to macroeconomic headwinds you could also argue probably some cryptocurrency crypto winner issues as well right in addition to reducing selling the company implemented pricing programs with channel partners to reflect challenging market conditions that are expected to persist in the third quarter so what does this mean for other semiconductor companies like is this going to be a problem we've seen this from microsoft and we're seeing weakness now here from nvidia we've got earnings tonight from unity and roblox it'll be interesting to see how those guys report as well so second quarter results are expected to include this is important approximately 1.32 billion dollars of charges primarily for inventory and related reserves based on revised expectations of future demand now i've owned nvidia since 2018 it was around 30 35 a share and the reason it got shellacked then was similar to this issue now we had a crypto crash around the same time and there was a couple things going on we had the china trade war we also had cryptocurrency mining so we had a slowdown of that as well as people were stockpiling so we knew that tariffs were coming a lot of countries and companies new tariffs are coming so they stockpiled inventory and they would do that of course to avoid paying those tariffs that would come into effect at a certain date so this isn't exactly the same but we're seeing some similarities to 2018 and that was a buying opportunity now the problem with nvidia is it just came from 140 so it's already ran pretty hard from there we're gonna look at that chart later but let's keep digging into this okay so data center revenue though a record was somewhat short of expectations impacted by supply chain disruption so i guess that's not surprising our gaming products sell through projections declined significantly this is jensen wong the ceo of nvidia as we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue we took actions with our gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory so if you look at this guys on the left you've got outlook on the right you've got preliminary results they just gave us you can see a big miss there 8.1 billion is the outlook on the revenue now they're gonna report earnings the end of the month and if they come in even shorter that could be really bad news well they could actually be conservative here maybe they come in at seven billion and the stock could rip then so keep that in mind as well but you can see here that everything pretty much was a miss except for auto auto is actually up 41.9 which is really good although it's a small part of their business okay so you're wondering why why is this happening part of the reason guys is timing they had four new gpus come out around the end of 2020 during the pandemic and everybody was going crazy buying these things you could see they were jacking them up so you could actually buy them and sell them for a profit it was absolutely out of control for quite some time plus we had a crypto frenzy at the time so there was just a lot of pull through for both gaming people sitting at home wanting something to do as well as everybody taking their stimulus checks and pumping it into cryptocurrency of course this hardware is used it can be used to mine cryptocurrencies right so kovid is one of the big catalysts crypto mining decrease is part of the reason why we're seeing some of this drop off gpu demand also lowers in recessionary periods makes sense you got less disposable income because inflation's high and things are rough you lose your job what have you you're probably not going to go out and buy a new gaming rig you know you might not spend as much money if you're a crypto miner you might buy a less expensive piece of hardware this is also cyclical and semiconductors even though they are the new oil they do have some cyclicality now some names have more resilience to this than others in this situation you can see where there'd be potential issues i've been surprised of how resilient some of these companies have been when we're getting these earnings reports here over the last couple of weeks the question is is this a short-term blip that's an opportunity or is it a reason to panic and sell the stock this last bullet guys this is really big this is huge and i don't see many other people talking about this at all nvidia prepaid almost 10 billion dollars 10 billion dollars to taiwan semiconductor for their five nanometers silicon so if you look at it's important to kind of look at the different segments so gaming revenue by market platform you can see the preliminary results you can see quarter of recorder year over year on the right so in gaming okay we've got down 44 percent quarter recorder down 33 year-over-year data center up one percent for a quarter of a quarter year over year quite a bit better number up 61 visualization down 20 and four percent automotive up 59 and 45 that's the highlight that's the bright spot here and just to show this again it's basically a miss across the board except for auto this is from colette kress evp and cfo of nvidia she says the significant charges incurred in the quarter reflect previous long-term purchase commitments we just talked about this 10 billion dollars to taiwan semiconductor that they made during a time of severe component shortages and our current expectation of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty so they were trying to plan ahead trying to save money trying to make sure that they had the supplies they needed and they paid a price for that so they paid up and stockpiled inventory at the same time demand crumbled so you've got a problem with supply and demand here and this is going to be a significant hit colette also said we believe our long-term gross margin profile is intact so they're not worried about the long term we have slowed operating expense growth balancing investments for long-term growth while maintaining near-term profitability we plan to continue stock buybacks as we foresee strong cash generation and future growth now as an investor i want to see this confidence in leadership and this is exactly what they're giving us what about jensen wong what's the ceo have to say we talked about this already gaming product sell through he also says this quote nvidia has excellent products and position driving large and growing markets as we navigate these challenges we remain focused on the once in a generation opportunity to reinvent computing for the era of ai artificial intelligence all right bulls so if you're focused on the long term what are some positives you can take away from this if you're a trader this might not be as relevant to you from a bold case long-term investor the 4-series gpu is launching soon probably this fall also the high-end consumer remains strong at least for now but we've seen still a dip in gaming data center is a big positive companies taxes are expected to be near zero now that could change with some recent legislation but as of now automotive did beat by 41.9 percent it's a small part of their business but a huge growth opportunity for automotive especially when you think of the amount of evs and autonomous vehicles we're going to have over the next decade and not even just autonomous you know vehicles or electric vehicles even regular cars right now that just ice vehicles they they require tons of semiconductor equipment in order for them to operate properly it's basically a computer on wheels nowadays right and then lastly this is the thing that i i really focus on especially being a software as a service sas guy data center's still strong it's 50 of their preliminary revenue and up 61 year-over-year now of course nvidia's competition for data center is going to be mostly amd and intel amd acquired xilinx which we talked about it's part of the reason i'm so bullish on amd because they're diversifying away from just gaming like nvidia has already done i also like marvel technology in this space but it's a little bit different player and then of course we got intel it's kind of the wild card you know it's been a strong player for years but it's really fallen off in the last couple years and we saw on their last report their last earnings they're kind of getting their butts kicked right now by amd and by nvidia especially when you think of the data center so chips act 52 billion dollars just got announced by biden how is that going to impact you know semiconductors of course most of that's going to be semiconductor manufacturing and you think of nvidia and you think of amd these are fabulous so what they do fabulous semiconductor companies they create designs they have really smart people they create designs they take those designs of somebody else to build them to manufacture them like taiwan semiconductor intel is trying to build a foundry in ohio and those type of companies are going to benefit the most with that said i think all semiconductors especially in the us can benefit from it and it could have some pull through when you think of stocks in general a lot of times they trade in a basket you think of the semiconductor etfs a lot of them kind of trade together you know so if a handful can get bullish you know it might have some pull through for some other stocks including the fabulous stocks like nvidia and amd here it is hot off the press biden signs china competition build to boost u.s chip makers includes more than 52 billion dollars for u.s companies producing semiconductors as well as billions in tax credits to encourage investment in chip manufacturing the white house said multiple companies spurred by the chips bill have announced more than 44 billion dollars in new semiconductor manufacturing investments the bill dubbed the chips and science act includes more than 52 billion dollars a newly announced partnership between qualcomm and global foundries includes 4.2 billion so advocates say that the funding is needed to really give us that edge back for america i mean the thing is guys is that this really comes down to semiconductors the new oil you know china wants to control taiwan what if they just come out and say hey we're going to take over taiwan semiconductor and you can't produce chips for american companies anymore we're pretty much screwed because you know from apple to nvidia to amd all the big chips they're mostly made especially when you look at the the new technologies i mean with those smaller nanometers those are all pretty much done by taiwan semiconductor they've they really have a monopoly on it that stock will be worth a lot more if it weren't for the whole china u.s tensions but this really comes down to trying to make sure that we are independent it's kind of like when you think of oil you think of oil like we want to be independent so we don't have to rely you think of like germany and some of these these european nations that are reliant on russian oil you know we don't want that to happen so this is really what it comes down to it's just it's a political a political game really to give the u.s an edge and to make sure that we're self-reliant when you think of semiconductors because leaders are realizing how important semiconductors are that it really is the new oil everything runs on semiconductors from this microphone to this you know the cell phone this iphone the tv the camera that i'm talking to you on everything pretty much needs semiconductors you know new vehicles you know some of them have hundreds of semiconductors in one car right let's take a quick look at valuation now the stock market's selling off today the nasdaq's down like 1.3 percent and video you can see is down 3.7 to 171 p ratio it's not cheap 47.75 short interest 1.5 percent and it's a mega cap 444 billion dollars all right final verdict is nvidia stock a buy now of course guys you know i'm a bowl of nvidia when you think about what's going on here with the cyclicality with the market conditions with macroeconomic conditions going on supply chain issues all this makes sense in fact gustavo from our group in our discord community if you want to join discord check out patreon there's a link below but gustavo was telling us two quarters ago he's a crypto miner he was telling us hey this is coming down the pipeline this is gonna be an issue for these reasons watch out for nvidia we're gonna look at a chart here and i'm gonna show you where i thought it was a buy if you bought those levels you're still up significantly isn't video stock by now or not so long term dca i think this is going to be a great opportunity they're in every secular growth trend imaginable when you think of ai you think of metaverse think of data center cloud autonomous vehicles evs you know on and on and on crypto cryptocurrency they're involved in everything ar vr everything is powered by semiconductors the new oil nvidia is well positioned for the future with artificial intelligence i think these guys are gonna do fine it's still an expensive stock but let's look at a chart and i'll give you my final take all right next we're gonna look at a chart and i'm gonna tell you if i think nvidia stock is a buy now or not now before i do that i need to announce i always get that wrong forward slash fired up wealth if this video was helpful please like please comment please subscribe please share i appreciate your support very much okay anytime you see orange that's previous chart day so previous chart days we said you know 150 to 155 dollars is kind of where it bounced if pressure continues you might see new lows well we did see any lows we got to 140 and 55 cents this is back here end of june right before fourth of july since then the stock ripped pretty hard it got all the way up to 191 dollars and found resistance it's trading right now at 171 dollars now the support level right now is 160 and 70 cents if that holds you could see it run to 200 plus 200 would get you past this moving average and then the r3 up here is about 209 so you're going to see some heavy resistance again probably at 200 and again around 210 dollars but that first support line you're going to look at guys is 160 and 70 cents in the chips act you think that it'd be bullish but things kind of run up to it and sell the news we have cpi data tomorrow so it's going to be hard to know cpi data can make the stock pop or drop either direction i think if it gets down if it gets to 160 or less ideally i like to buy this 150 or less but you're gonna dollar cost average this stock could come lower guys it really could but remember guys this is a favorite when you especially think of retail investors long term i think this is a great opportunity but you need to hear that the stock is not cheap and the stock could always go lower here are the numbers to watch now i want to invite you guys to watch a video that i did recently on lucid i've got a card over here at end screen over here go check that out it has over 35 000 views if you haven't seen it yet i think it's a great one i also did a video yesterday on palin's here if you're interested in palettes here we've got tons of other good videos subscribe check out the channel check out the playlist there's tons of new videos i appreciate
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