저자: Mr.FIREDUpWealth · 외국인
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팔란티어 2분기 실적 발표 직후 주가 급락(약 -15%) 상황을 분석. 상업부문 고객수·매출 성장은 긍정적이나 EPS 미스, 가이던스 하회로 하락. 과거 고점 대비 높은 주가매출비율(P/S 약 13)로 여전히 고평가 지적. 지지선 9.40달러 이탈 시 8.65~7.50달러까지 하락 가능, 지지 유지 시 12~13달러까지 반등 가능성 언급. 분할매수 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
palantir just reported earnings guys the stock's down about 15 percent and i wanted to get this early video to you this morning to give you the highlights and go over it i'm going to tell you if i think the stock is a buy on this pullback or not now there's a lot of people out there that still don't know what palantir does so i want to do a quick rapid overview of what this company does what paluter's all about we're going to talk about the valuation we're going to talk about earnings highlights we're going to talk about some of the misses and why the stock's selling off and i'm going to show you a chart and i'm going to tell you where i think the stock is headed next let's get into it okay rapid fire what does palancier even do let's cover it really fast guys so palantir takes all organizational data it formats it into a single and customized language it takes data from spreadsheets from different disparate systems from siloed information within an organization or within a government takes all that information and creates data that's consumable that's usable for those users so they can make decisions with that data it's analytics integrates and manages the data making it easily consumable it's essentially analytics that it's very powerful analytics extremely powerful allows you to track information from everywhere and make sense of the data from anywhere in the organization it's rumored of course that palance here was instrumental in locating and taking out osama bin laden okay so pallets here has two primary platforms and that's going to be gotham and foundry okay there's sas there's software as a service platforms there's also apollo i'll talk about that in a second gotham is mostly used by government agencies foundry is used primarily by private enterprise so this is the commercial business this is the most important part really when you think of the future growth when you think of that future growth it's gonna be in that private enterprise or commercial segment so this is apollo guys we've got foundry and gotham those are sas software as a service and it runs on apollo so apollo instead of being a public cloud like aws this is going to be a private cloud that's going to be more secure for government agencies this is from youtube and it's just explaining what apollo is most sas products only run in the public cloud limiting where software can be deployed from satellites to classified networks palantir apollo brings the agility and stability of sas to cloud 2.0 foundry is focused on the same goals as gotham which is to integrate complex data from multiple locations and provide insights that are actionable again alright so gotham's focus on operations and investigations takes large data sources unifies that data enables users to complete missions with insights foundry focuses on helping enterprises with data especially complex data with scale visibility and efficiency palantir can save money for governments and organizations by replacing big data analytics teams and data engineers as you've seen palin's here offers highly secure data compared to many of its competitors okay so right now palantir's down over 15 here's the headline palantir shares fall more than 10 following earnings report reported second quarter earnings before the bell here this morning just minutes ago revenue for the quarter increased 26 year-over-year commercial revenue solid 46 year of your growth now this stock did run really hard i'm going to show you a chart here later it was down in the six dollar level and it bounced heavily off of that and it's ran really hard so let's look at a chart and see where it might go so eps guys this is big loss of one cent and they're expecting three cents positive so that's a big miss there revenue is actually a slight beat 473 million dollars versus 471.3 million dollars commercial customer count is huge 250 growth year of the year growing from 34 customers to 119.
this is going to be the key to the success four pounds here because they've been around for 20 years and they've got a lot of those government customers baked out and so the growth is going to come from these commercial customers and seeing that growth that is a positive for pounds here bulls cfo david glazier told cnbc that the company's missed was due to a decline in investments you've seen this a lot with earnings right so investments in marketable securities these guys have invested in tons of spacks that have been hit really hard glacier said commercial growth is widespread so the company's doing really well they've had some earnings misses here primarily because of the investments one of the main reasons the stock is down as guidance the guidance was a little bit light here expecting about 475 million in the third quarter and about 1.9 billion for the full year it says here that the guidance the weak guidance is due to the lumpiness of government work but he is confident in the company's pipeline so this could be an opportunity in the pullback maybe to add shares of pounds here let's dig a little bit deeper all right so if you guys don't follow me on twitter the handle is at fired up wealth i posted this within a couple of minutes after pouncey released earnings i want to cover the guidance that we just talked about so we talked about 475 million dollars for q3 on the revenue the expectation was really about 501 million so that's pretty light when you look at the full year guidance for the revenue 1.9 billion that we talked about the estimate expectation was 1.97 billion so significant guy down on both of those so the bolt case here guys just last week on august 5th we saw reports here that palantir is looking to increase head count by 25 percent they're trying to beef up their head count especially in their sales team and sell more especially in the commercial customers so it looks to boost its head count by 25 by end of year to meet its ambitious sales targets bloomberg reports palantir has already hired or extended offers to 1 100 new employees so far this year it aims to add another 300 before year end palantir's headcount will soon reach around 3670 up from 2920 at the end of 2021.
so this could be big so let's talk about some of the metrics valuation what's this thing worth okay when you look at the ev ncm revenue it's about 9.4 x before earnings you have to remember this company's been around for almost two decades it was founded may 6 2003 so even though this was a direct listing it wasn't ipo as a direct listing at the end of 2020 it's not a new company i think a lot of newer investors don't realize that these guys have been around for almost two decades gross margins solid 82 rule 40 not bad 44 now free cash flow is 14 positive even though you saw the earnings per share miss we did miss so we were expecting three cents positive we had a negative one cent loss there is still free cash flow but we still don't have that p e ratio so not profitable no p e ratio you've got to look at things like evncm revenue gross margins rule 40 and so on so you can see some of the numbers on your screen here so 26 is what we're up here so overall revenue is up 26 you know not terrible but not great the u.s revenue is up 45 much stronger u.s commercial revenue this is important this is huge it's up 120 and u.s commercial customers up 250 so you can see some of these highlights here i mean it's pretty cut and dry essentially we had a miss on eps mostly because of investments we also have guidance lower and that's going to impact the stock especially if it's ran really hard let's look at a price of sales ratio let's look at a chart let's see where this stock's headed okay you can see continuing to sell off here down over 16 pre-market to 9.60 so look at a chart here in a second of course no p e ratio now short 6.34 so that's something to keep in mind the it's a mid cap 23.42 billion that was at a higher price so now it's it's getting closer to 20 billion dollars you know when you've got a lot of short sellers this is going to amplify the selling downwards you know you have short squeezes that make the stocks pop and you've also got you know shorts that can drive the stock much lower so this could you know this could wash out a little bit further let's look at a chart just real quick price to sales so if you look at the price of sales ratio you know december 31st 2021 the price was 18 and 21 cents the price of sales was 22.21 now we're down here around 13.
this is before the the sell-off so 13.5 based on the price from friday's close so we're going to be you know pushing this down a little bit further getting closer to probably 12 or something like that so the price of sales ratio is still you know fairly high and that's one thing that people don't realize it's like they want the stock to go to thirty dollars and i do too because i own a lot of shares of pounds here but the reality is it's still an expensive stock and it doesn't have the growth necessarily to support that now with that said i do think that there's opportunity for this company to be much much larger than it is right now that's gonna take time you've seen that they're gonna ramp up the the sales team it's gonna take time to build that team up and to sell more especially to those commercial customers okay we're gonna look at a chart i spent a couple hours yesterday on sunday prepping for this so i've got a really good idea of where i think the stock might be headed now before we look at the chart i need to announce that if this video is helpful please drop me a like drop me a comment make sure you subscribe to the channel click that bell to get notifications so where is the stock headed for palantir you can see guys the all-time high on this was 45 back in january 2021 it got way ahead of itself like a lot of these stocks and this is why a lot of people have put pounds here into the meme stock bucket because it traded more expensively than it probably should the valuation wasn't really supporting the the fundamentals right with that said though this is a quality company and it's going to grow and do well it just probably wasn't worth 45 dollars well you know it wasn't worth 45 dollars back january 2021.
now the 52-week high was september 17 2021 that was 29.29 now the all-time low believe it or not it went from 45 dollars to 29 dollars to 6.44 on may 12 2022. so just a couple months back it was six dollars and 44 cents and it's made a nice run it made a nice run all the way up to this 11 and change mark before pulling back so now pre-market here you can see this orange line it's back under ten dollars at nine dollars and seventy eight cents the previous chart day we said 865 was support and that earnings are going to be coming up and that earnings are going to make the stock either pop or drop so anytime you see orange in this this is chart day if you like chart day you can join us on patreon it's patreon.com backslash fired up wealth so where are we at where's the stock head is that by now support is now nine dollars and forty cents so technically we still are holding support we're at 9.76 i expect the stock to tease that 950 940 range now if it breaks down the bare case if it breaks down that 940 you could see 865 and maybe even seven dollars and fifty cents now i'm not saying that has to happen but if the market starts to tank and roll over those are the price levels you're gonna see right now what you need to look at is nine dollars and forty cents and it's always tough because you know the stock could easily bottom around 940 and it might bottom quickly and you can miss or it could just continue to sell off and you might buy too early so generally i use dollar cost averaging i can't tell you what to buy or sell because i'm not a financial advisor but here are the numbers if it does remain bullish should be 12 to 13 and so what that means is that if it holds that 940 consolidate it could consolidate trade sideways for a while if it holds that support level it could grind up past 10 and get to 12 and 13.
but that could take some time it's not going to happen overnight if you haven't seen this video on lucid check it out there's a card over here click that go take a look i appreciate you guys time and attention i hope you have a great rest of your day please subscribe please like please comment take care
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