저자: CoreyJohnson,DougClinton · 외국인
요약 보기
미 수출규제 강화로 엔비디아 H20 재고 상각 등 AI 반도체 악재가 부각되며 반도체주 급락. Johnson은 중국 AI 위협에 따른 규제 지속을 짚고, 블랙웰 칩 수요는 견조하다고 봄. Clinton은 투자자들이 AI에 관심을 잃은 상태이며 규제 뉴스에 과하게 반응한다고 진단. TSM은 선행 PER 약 16배로 밸류에이션 매력이 있고 장기 보유 가치가 있다고 주장하나 단기는 관세 뉴스로 변동성 예상.
다듬은 글
We're watching all the chip stocks which are under pressure again and lots of news. Nvidia, AMD, lots of charges now that they have to take because of the restrictions that have been tightened. They seem to not have known about them and that's what they seem somewhat surprised. That's what we got out of Nvidia.
Taiwan semi- earnings are due out tomorrow. Um, just wondering about this whole sector. Corey Johnson, chief market strategist at Epistrophe Capital Research and Doug Clinton, CEO, founder of Intelligent Alpha. Thank you both for being with us. Corey, start with you. Your thoughts on the big picture here.
Well, um, you know, we have bipartisan consensus in Washington about only one thing and that is the risk of China and the risk in particular of China developing powerful AI technology. So, the writing was on the wall here. Now, Nvidia uh architected the H20 chip specifically uh with these these uh these uh import bands uh on their minds and now they're stuck with all these H20s and all these wafers for the H20s which cannot be transferred into the Blackwell chips which everyone in the rest of the world wants.
So that's why they're taking this huge write-off but they were trying to follow the letter of the law. But I think the concern and really we saw this with deepseek uh when we had that deepseek moment was when China said a company in China said hey we can do AI just as good as anybody else. I think there was a real concern because uh a hostile nation with control of AI like China uh poses a very different kind of threat to the world and I and the Biden administration floated something like this and didn't quite get it through into the last weeks of the administration.
Um but it's clear that the Trump administration is is is pushing the head. This comes in the context of all the tariffs of course, but I think this is a very different issue. Yeah. And what do you think? Do you think that uh this can affect these chip stocks even more? I think where we're at right now, Nicole, with the entire AI narrative is good news doesn't really matter and bad news is awful news.
And I think that's what we're seeing with Nvidia today. I think we're also seeing that to some extent with ASML and their earnings, which largely were fine. And I think they took advantage of the uncertainty that tariffs are bringing to sort of be more cautious going forward. And so I think we need to kind of work through, you know, investors just don't really want to believe or be involved in AI right now.
And I think when they see these stories about new chip restrictions that could affect Nvidia's business, then the stock gets sold off hard. But to Cory's point, this is something that I think has been talked about for several months now. So if you're really following AI, this probably wasn't a big surprise.
If you're not really following AI, you probably sell, right? I mean, Nvidia said they were recently informed by the US government about these new licensing requirements. So, seemed a little bit taken aback by all of this. Taiwan Semi is a name that you own, Doug, right in the um ETFs, things like that.
Tell me a little bit about the price action that you may see going forward. Right now, it's at 14962. Where do you think Nvidia could be headed? I'm sorry. Taiwan Semi could be headed. Absolutely. We do own TSM in our Livermore ETF, LIIVR, where we use AI. You know, we use uh the technology that these chips power to pick stocks and TSM is one of the AI stocks that our models like.
The reason I think that our models like TSM is number one, you think about it from a valuation perspective. The stock has had a tough year so far, as have many chip stocks. And if you look at the forward earnings, we're trading at about 16 times forward PE. That's below the midpoint of the 10-year range for TSM.
So valuation wise, we're in a reasonable place. But number two, structurally, you just think about TSM as a company and AI in general, any chip builder who is making these leading edge chips, they have to use TSM. There's really no alternative. And so I think from a monopolistic standpoint, it's a great business trading at a cheap valuation.
And I think it'll be rocky from here because it'll be more tariff news, but I still think you want to own it over a longer time period. And within your notes, Cory, you have a few talking points pertaining to Taiwan semi. If you could share those ahead of the earnings for tomorrow, if you think um that it's well positioned.
Well, what what an amazing week this is for semiconductors and for Taiwan semiconductor and for Nvidia. We got a press release from Nvidia at the beginning of the week saying that the very first black belt chip made in America at a Taiwan semiconductor plant happened in Arizona this very same week. So the all of the geopolitical concerns, the technological amazement that that chip uh we expect was made using ASML gear.
One of these these ASML machines can cost up to $350 million per unit. Imagine this incredible machine that is the most complicated piece of machinery in the history of mankind. They cost as much as $350 million per unit. The average price is somewhere around $97 million per unit. That these incredible machines at a factory run by a Taiwanese company in Arizona makes this Nvidia chip in the same week that the stock is getting absolutely crushed thanks to these new uh export uh restrictions on their chips.
It's just an amazing time when you know the demand for AI is insatiable. And while the prices of the things being sold, the chips, the chip equipment, the photonics that are connecting the devices, all those prices are going way up because of Teros, but they're still all going to get bought. All right, we're at 5,250 on the S&P 500.
Nvidia is down 10%, Taiwan Semi is down 5%, AMD is down nearly 10%. We have a lot going on here, folks. Corey Johnson, Doug Clinton, thank you so much. We'll watch for those Taiwan semi numbers.
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