저자: JoeTay · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 실적 발표를 앞두고 하락 조정 후 반등한 상황. 관세 리스크 완화로 대폭 반등했으나 경기침체 우려, 중국 관세 125% 등 불확실성 여전. 옵션 변동성이 높게 가격에 반영돼 있어 단기 상승 확률이 낮다고 판단, 240달러 상방 제한을 보고 콜 매도 전략(245 콜 매수 병행) 제시. 약세장 속 반등은 회의적으로 봐야 한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
So, it's time for morning trade and we're taking a look at JP Morgan. Chase reports its earnings tomorrow morning along with Black Rockck, Morgan, Stanley, Wells Fargo. But want to take a look here at JP Morgan. Um, and XLF is still having a great winning week despite the selloff a bit today. Caroline Woods is here and taking a look at JP Morgan.
What are people saying? Yeah, this is going to be an interesting one and I think outlook is really going to be key. We can count on Jamie Diamond. He never minces his words. He's talked about economic hurricanes and such. So, it'll be interesting to see what he says. But, yes, JP Morgan really kicks off bank earnings season tomorrow.
It's been holding up better than its peers so far this year. If you take a look, it's obviously under some pressure today, giving back some of yesterday's huge gains. Down about 3%, but only down about 5% year-to date compared to some pretty steep losses and double-digit losses for some of its peers.
Terms of the actual numbers we're looking for, EPS of $462 on revenue of 43.23 billion. That's up about 3% from the year ago period. I've heard analysts weigh in. They said these numbers are probably going to look good across the board, but it's likely not the first quarter numbers that investors will really be paying close attention to.
It's going to be the outlook, the economic, and the business commentary. Any commentary on borrowers behavior both in terms of businesses and consumers. CEO Jamie Diamond of course told Fox Business that recession is probably a likely outcome because of the tariffs. Obviously, the tariff rate has come down for most countries now, at least for 90 days.
But as George just mentioned, the the China tariff is still at 125%. So, we'll see what they say about the e economic impact there. And Jamie Diamond has also reiterated that he thinks sticky inflation isn't going to go away very fast. When they last reported, he said there are two significant risks.
One is that inflation may persist for some time and that was before obviously this trade war with China really started and two he said uh geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since World War II. So obviously you know looking for any updates there in terms of his economic commentary for the current quarter.
Wall Street looking for EPS of $4.50 on revenue of $42.91 billion. That's down about 14.5% from the year ago period. So we'll see what sort of outlook they give. Obviously this earning season so many have said it's you know we've already seen uh you know Delta, Walmart pull their guidance. Um we'll see what you know the banks have to say as you said JP Morgan uh is not the only bank reporting we'll hear from Morgan Stanley BNY Wells Fargo.
Uh so really kicking things off but shares down about 3.3% right now but of course still up about 8% this week because of yesterday's huge gains. So, you know, we'll see whether first of all, they also got a jump yesterday as on the tariff pause, but you know, we'll see whether or not if there's tariffs, if there's an inflation, how does that affect the banks overall?
Jamie Diamond, as you noted, always been pretty frank in his in his words, and he talked about the recession risks. I think they had a 60% likelihood of a recession at one point. Goldman Sachs rescended yesterday. Goldman but still Goldman Sachs is still at 45%. So it's, you know, below 50, but there's still a pretty high chance of recession.
So I think that and we don't really know how this is going to play out because President Trump is negotiating with each and every country. So 10% baseline tariffs, the expectation is those are here to stay. We'll see if those increase, but 125% impact on our third, you know, or tariff on our third largest trading partner also is going to have an impact.
So we'll see what Jamie Diamond has to say about that. I will say if you take a look at the analyst breakdown almost 60% of analysts rate JP Morgan as a buy heading into this median price target has come down but it's around 264 that's about 15% upside from current levels. So JP Morgan's or 19% away from from the highs.
So not necessarily getting back there but analysts the upside from here. Yeah. And and Jamie Diamond I think has a good relationship with President Trump. Good enough in that I think we've seen them talking many times. So, I guess they have somewhat of an open door chatting policy. Um, okay, great. But it all changes fast, so we just never know.
Without a doubt, and they're both very honest, so I wonder what it's like being a fly on the wall in their conversations. Caroline Woods, thank you. Let's trade it. Joe Tay, portfolio manager of Rational Equity Armor Fund. Good morning to you. I know you're watching JP Morgan. Some of your thoughts about how you would go about a trade here.
Hi, Nicole. Yes, thank you for having me. It's been a very interesting time as a fund manager and a trader as of late. Uh we've seen historic moves up and down. Yesterday, obviously historic move up. The options market is still expecting more insane moves to come. I'm just going to fade that volatility just a little bit, especially to the upside here.
Uh given after we saw such a huge ramp yesterday in JP Morgan. Remember, the 200 day moving average is right about at 230. Had trouble staying above above that. Uh I think 240 was an area of previous resistance. I just think by next Friday, I don't see it above 240. The options market's pricing in a really high probability.
Uh so I'm going to sell that call, buy the 245 call, and just kind of cut my risk off. I'm going to collect a$140 to do that. I really think uh the probability above 240 before next Friday is relatively low. So that's how I'm playing it. I think uh we're you know I we have to admit it we are in a bare market here Nicole uh and I think rallies should be viewed with skepticism here until we get a major change in the dynamic.
Yeah you know it's interesting because yes the market is down but maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. for example, I mean, they could be terrible. I don't know. But I'm saying I just was reading about the jobless claims, how claims are down 16, I'm sorry, how they are below 226,000 for 16 of the last 17 weeks.
Um, that makes me feel pretty good. The CPI print today came in less hot. In fact, it was a bit cool. That makes me feel good that we don't have inflation soaring. All of these could change on a dime. But um and yesterday you had and showed that there are buyers on the sidelines ready to jump in and that that's probably a feel-good moment.
I don't know what are your thoughts because there is a lot of volatility and uncertainty. Yes. And I think uh taking most of the tariffs off the table took most of the risk off the table. So yes, I think uh the the bounce we saw yesterday was absolutely justified. We were oversold. People were too bearish.
uh there was a lot of short positioning which had to be covered. So the bounce we saw off of the lows absolutely justified. Don't get me wrong there. That said, we have to remember before we even started the tariff talk, people were worried that we're going to be losing jobs because of the federal employees being laid off.
People were worried that these valuations were way too high. So, we're still in a in a moment where we have to just kind of wait and see. Let this all play out. Uh so uh for me to just race back to all-time highs uh while I wouldn't discount that possibility. I certain I certainly do think that's possible.
I think it's just going to take a little more time to kind of get through all of this noise uh to do so. So the options volatility still extremely hot. Uh I think uh people are still betting on more upside. I think yesterday's rally fantastic. It's very rare to see upside days like that. Uh and they happen to happen in bare markets.
So, for me, uh, just selling some of this upside volatility after this huge, uh, huge snapback higher just seems prudent to me. Uh, if I'm wrong, hey, that'll be great for the rest of the market, rest of the portfolio, of course. Uh, but I just think that's just too much to ask to see another $10 in JP Morgan, another 5% rip higher here in just a week.
I think that's uh, doesn't happen very often. I think the options are pricing it uh, too high uh, too high a probability. So, for me, that's what I'm looking at. uh into this earnings tomorrow. Yeah. And look um people made some quick money if they bought on Monday, they sold yesterday in in the heat of it.
That's good news. But that very well, you know, when you talk about a bare market rally and a lot of short covering or you know the other scenario where people are just waiting for a rally to sell into some strength so they can get the heck out. Um it, you know, we're still in a very fragile time. Joe Tugay, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund. Great to see you. Thank you.
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