저자: JamesCostulius · 외국인
요약 보기
Schwab STAX 3월 데이터 기준 고객 심리 지표(STAX 점수) 484로 50 아래, 두 달 연속 하락해 투자자 불안을 시사. 고객은 개별 종목을 매수(NVDA, PLTR, TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL 등)했으나 순매수 금액 기준으로는 대부분 주간 매도 우위, 관세 불확실성에 따라 레버리지·익스포저 축소. 리테일이 '멍청한 돈'이라는 통념은 현재 시점에 맞지 않는다는 견해. 변동성은 당분간 지속될 것이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
We welcome in James Costulius is with us, head of trading services at Charles Schwab. It's great to see you again. Glad you're here because the volatility has been wild. We're going to delve into the stacks report, of course. I want to get the details there. Uh, a big picture thought on the markets.
Hey Nicole, great to see you again. Thanks so much for having me back. Uh, big big picture thoughts. Volatility and uncertainty abound. having just watched some of the technical corner over there with Kevin, uh really clear volatility is here and here to stay. So, we're going to go through um the action, but the overall takeaway here is that the stacks report the number fell, the score was lower, it was multiple months, you know, two months in a row.
I mean, it's showing the apprehension. I I think that's absolutely true. falling to 484 below the 50 level is is meaningful and we're at the second second lowest we've had over the course of the last year. Um and so falling 7% not you know not out of line with the S&P. It's always interesting to see some of the correlation between stocks and the S&P falling 7% and 6% but but certainly showing the apprehension in the markets for our swap clients.
What's interesting though is they were buying. They didn't just sell everything. I mean, no one does that. Um, particularly because then you might miss a rally like today, for example, you had an opportunity to sell at a higher price if you wanted to sell. Um, tell us a little bit uh about the selling though.
I saw there was tech in there and many other sectors. Yeah. And the tech story is a nuanced one. So, net our clients were absolutely sellers of tech. Um but they were buyers of spe some of the specific big names that you might expect. So your Palunteer, your Amazon, your Nvidia and then I think you know in somewhat of what is this enigma with this with this market you you had Apple that sort of oscillated back and forth over the course of the month between our clients being buyers and then also being sellers.
And so I think that's a bit enigmatic of of what we've seen sort of holistically within the market. And then, you know, just to remind our viewers, Nicole, that that is the March data. So, obviously, March feels like a lifetime away based on what we've seen over the course of the last week or so here with the increased volatility.
But in this recent period of increased volatility, we've got again some some interesting sort of conflicting information where on a client basis, our Schwab clients are actually been buyers, but on a net dollars basis, they've been um sellers fairly meaningfully. So, you've got a lot of different clients maybe buying the dip, but you've got the net net big money more on the sell side.
Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, maybe they were sort of shoring up, worried about the tariffs. I mean, a lot of people were. And what's interesting with the buying you you mentioned Palanteer, but on that list, I did see Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Palanteer. you know, folks maybe wanted to get a little bit of it, but the big picture is they're selling and they sold AT&T, Alibaba, some of the oil stocks, right?
Yep. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, the two sectors our clients were long in in March would have been your financials and your consumer discretion, but but I think the numbers tell you um a little bit of a broader story, i.e. over the last two weeks of February and then the full month of March for five out of those six weeks our clients were net sellers.
So to your point heading into the you know confusion for lack of a better term around tariffs uh we saw clients t taking risk and taking leverage and taking exposure off the table both at the end of February and then all the way through March. Yeah, on that list, I think I may have missed one. I saw AT&T, Micro Strategy, Alibaba, Exxon, Chevron, and this as oil right now is below 60 bucks.
So, I guess they maybe they they did okay with those cells. Um, you know, when we think about sentiment now and the soft data, it has been showing that people have been a little nervous about the tariffs, about inflation, right? Absolutely. And I think what the stack shows here and has showed a few times is that sort of that adage of retail money is dumb money is is probably an outdated one especially for the Schwab clients to to your point taking actions heading into this period of uncertainty to take some risk off and and limit their exposure.
And I think traders like volatility they don't like uncertainty. I think what we see right now is so much uncertainty uh within the markets and the traders are trying to figure it out. Yeah. And look, the big money is what's going to really drive that trend, right? That you made that point. Absolutely.
Yeah. All right. Well, James, it's great to see you. I really look forward now, or maybe I don't, to the April, Of course I do. I always want to see what people are doing. Um, and you know, everybody wants to know. It's It's nice to have the transparency. It's nice to have Charles Schwab and all the services and the education that it provides. James Costulius, head of trading services at Charles Schwab. Thank you.
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