저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세 정책 여파로 기술주 전망을 대폭 하향. 테슬라 목표가를 $550→$315로 낮추고 중국 매출 비중(22%) 및 브랜드 이미지 훼손을 우려. 애플 목표가 $325→$250 하향, 수요 붕괴와 자본지출 중단 위험 언급. 테슬라 52주 고점 대비 약 50% 하락, 52주 저점($138) 대비로는 여전히 위. 빅테크 전반 고점 대비 20~30% 하락 상태.
다듬은 글
We're live from the New York Stock Exchange this morning, and we have lots of news and stories to discuss. With us is Jenny Horn, host of NextGen Investing. And, of course, I talked to "techno -bull" Dan Ives. We can't even call him a "techno-bull" anymore, because he's become much less optimistic. He expects a new norm in 2026.
He was so depressed when we spoke last week, saying that the tech sector had rolled back decades. Jenny, you're following some of his predictions this morning. Let's start with Tesla. Good morning to you. Good morning to you. And the morning doesn't look very good for Tesla. I think even I, as someone who follows Dan Ives closely, am concerned.
If your most optimistic, time-tested bull on Tesla or Apple suddenly backs down, you realize, "Hey, we have a serious brand perception problem here." And I think this is clearly evidenced by the fall in Tesla shares. We have seen stocks close in the red in 10 of the last 11 weeks. And although the 9- week losing streak was snapped, it can hardly be called a success after a significant collapse on Friday, when shares fell by almost 10%.
We understand that the company has become a global political symbol. Dan Ives also wrote about this in his note to clients on Sunday. He stated that it was time for Musk to act, feel the situation, and become a leader in this period of uncertainty. He lowered his price target— it seems like the first time in my memory that Dan Ives has lowered his forecast for Tesla—to $315.
That's still above Friday's closing price. But that's significantly below $550, and he was previously the second most optimistic of all analysts. What worries him most now is the risk that Tesla will come under fire due to the negative reaction to the US president's tariff policy , especially towards China.
China provides about 22% of Tesla's current sales . And the Chinese government's plans to impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10 correspond to what Trump calls reciprocal tariffs. This, they say, will further push Chinese consumers towards competitors, which, as anyone who follows monthly shipments knows, is quite likely.
We know that Tesla is only falling further and further behind Xpang, BYD, Neo and others. So they said they now estimate that Tesla has lost or destroyed at least 10% of its future customer base worldwide due to these truly self-inflicted brand issues. And now more conservative forecasts for the future may become a problem.
So, the attitude towards Tesla has completely changed, although last Friday, in my opinion, he really tried to support Musk, despite the problems he got himself into and the perception of the brand, which has definitely changed. This weekend, everyone was talking about Elon Musk and what the hell he did to Tesla .
This doesn't mean we don't see opportunities and growth potential , because as we know, Tesla is volatile, but this is a definite change of tone from Dan Ives, who I follow very closely . Well, look, everyone follows Dan Ives because he was an eternal optimist, even last year, on August 5th, when that huge sell-off happened, and every time stocks fell, he insisted that these were buying opportunities.
That's not what he's saying now, and that's what makes such a big difference compared to his 10-15 years of optimism and tracking the tech sector. Um, he really says that in the case of Tesla, the situation is completely different. It also notes the political aspect you mentioned , and the fact that they've probably lost some of their customer base forever.
At the same time, if every Republican went out and bought a Tesla, the company would actually be the leader. So there's a nuance, and it's not exactly a car company, right? This is a technology company. Plus, it's in a better position than some other automakers because it has manufacturing here in the US, like Rivian.
I mean, Tesla has had a lot of positives , but the history with Republicans and Democrats is definitely hurting it at this point. So, the stocks fell, it seems , by 50% from their highs, right? Yes. 50% off the highs. I will also note, perhaps for a little more optimism, that we are still far from the lows that were recorded just a year ago.
April 21 was Tesla's last 52-week low, and it was, it seems, $138 per share. So that also suggests that... well, about $139 a share, let's call it that. This shows that even with such a steep drop from its peak around 488, the stock is still more than $100 above its 52-week low. I cannot but emphasize this.
Yes, 72% of those levels are here. So, yes, a 42% downward movement in a year—that's terrible. It was brutal, and we felt it every moment. But I also think it was a little strange how this title traded so high on the pre-election euphoria when you actually look at how they get the details. So, yes, it is definitely US dominance, but 60-70% of the details are from here, from the US.
This leaves them 30-35% vulnerable to their various vehicles . I think the markets have kind of ignored that, saying the company will be more protected than some other manufacturers in the US, but they are nowhere near tariff-proof. And this is even something Musk has already talked about repeatedly on X.
Yes. And look, automaker stocks are falling. Of course, China is retaliating with new tariffs. And, for example, Stellantis fell by over 7% this morning. We will continue to follow this story. There are more details there. How about switching to Apple? There is also a change in the target price. Of course , a decrease.
Another decrease. Yes. So I think this reaffirms that Ives' tone has changed dramatically now regarding a lot of these big tech names. They actually lowered their price target on Apple from $325 to $250 per share, saying that, entering today, we are in a somewhat frightening realization that the economic Armageddon from Trump's tariff policies will indeed be realized this week.
And it will be what they called one of the most challenging technology investing landscapes they have seen in the last 25 years of covering these tech stocks. So, for a variety of reasons, we're now seeing a collapse in demand, a halt in capital spending plans, and a massive uncertainty that's going to hurt a lot of these names that have consistently been not only, as in the case of Apple, the most index- dependent, but also kind of our growth engine when it seemed like Nvidia was starting to lose that momentum.
Apple has actually managed to hold its own, although lately it has apparently not. So watching this significant decline, I think, shows how much Apple mirrors the S&P 500 index and what a huge beta this stock has. However, we are still showing 11% growth over the last 12 months. We're down about 25% this year.
This graph doesn't look as bad as Tesla's, yes, but it doesn't look great either. And now we are about 14- something percent above the lows. So, we're getting close to 164. We're not close to that level yet. But I think this general review of valuations by sellers is appropriate because you can't endlessly argue that these assets can be bought at a discount.
And I think we're now seeing a significant slowdown in Apple's growth going forward, that "supercycle" that never happened, and a lot of analysts are just having to admit, "hey , we were really wrong." And I believe that this is exactly the tone that tariffs are currently setting in this market . Yes.
And we see that Apple has fallen by 28%, Amazon and Google by 30% from their peaks, and Microsoft by 23% from their peaks. So, listen, there really was a feeling that the market was too overheated. Many people really enjoy the rollback and see it as a great opportunity to step in at some point . So, a lot of cash is sitting around waiting to be returned, but it looks pretty tough, especially overnight.
Jenny Horn, thank you. It's very nice to see you. Good overview of some of the big names in this story, Dan.
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