The Best Investing Advice On The Internet | Howard Marks (billionaire)

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투자의 핵심은 리스크 통제이며, 거시 예측은 알 수 없으므로 신뢰하지 말아야 한다는 주장. 미래를 예측하려는 시도는 성공적 투자로 이어지지 않으며, 무작위성(2016 대선 후 증시 상승 등)으로 인해 맞힌 예측도 우연일 수 있다. 대신 기업·산업·증권 등 '알 수 있는 것(knowables)'에 집중하라고 조언한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. there is no one important thing there are many things that that an investor has to consider but the truth is the most important thing is risk and I believe that it is the job of the professional investor to control risk for the clients the go the job is not to make a lot of money because usually the market goes up usually it's easy to make money the challenge is to make money at the same time that you control risk and uh a a portfolio which has the opportunity to make money but with the risk under control is in my opinion the mark of the professional investor first the truth about investing most investors cannot see the future better than anybody else and trying to predict the future will not produce investment success my one of my heroes John Kenneth GB said we have two kinds of forecasters the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know the truth is the future is uncertain and yet what is investing but deploying money for the future now most investors act as if they can see the future and they base their investment decision on their view of the future either they think they can or they think they have to pretend that they can for their business now I think it's dangerous because if it turns out that they really can't as I believe then then there's a problem there was a behaviorist named Amos fski at Stanford University and he said something that I thought was brilliant he said it's frightening to think that you don't know something but more frightening to think that by and large most people go around acting as if they do we have an American humorist Mark Twain who said it even better it's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble it's what you know for certain that isn't true and this is extremely important I can't emphasize enough the importance of of keeping this in mind if you if you if everything you say as for me if every sentence you say starts with the words I may be wrong but or I don't know but then you're unlikely to get into trouble the way you get into trouble is thinking that you really do know what the future holds and of course in my opinion being wrong now in our business once in a while somebody gets famous for a particularly brilliant prediction but it usually turns out that they can't repeat that and so I say that our business is full of people who got famous for being right once in a row and of course being right once in a row doesn't do any good because you never know if the next one has any value but that's the way it is and almost nobody is Right much more than once in a row and everybody in our business makes predictions of what's going to happen and if you look at the great investors of the world virtually none of them got famous by being able to predict the future of what we call macro and what I'm talking about forecast today I'm talking about the macro economies markets currencies uh interest rates these are the big picture factors they're very important everybody would like to know what they imply but they just can't and Buffett said to me one time for a piece of information to be desirable it has to satisfy two criteria it has to be important and it has to be knowable and the macro is extremely important and everybody says to me how can you not base your investment approach on macro it's so important I say yes but it's not knowable and if it's not knowable then trying to base your approach on macro is really a waste of time or worse now one of the main reasons for the difficulty of making predictions is the enormous influence of Randomness and you know things often we know how it should go but it something else occurs instead impossible things happen all the time and things that are extremely likely to happen fail to happen all the time now let's go back in my country to November of 2016 there were two things that were considered certainties not probable certainties number one Hillary Clinton would be elected president and number two if by some Quirk of Fate Donald Trump won the market would collapse and so instead Trump won and the market went straight up and if that's not enough to convince people that they don't know what the future holds then I don't think I can nothing is more common than investors who are right for the wrong reason and they get famous but of course we shouldn't follow them that's the importance of Randomness I think that investors should accept the fact that they can't see the macro future and restrict themselves to doing the things that are within their power these include gaining insight into what I call the knowbles companies Industries and securities and those are things where you can know more than the other person if you work hard and have skill and wisdom