저자: Kevin · 외국인
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반도체 비중이 S&P500의 18%로 역사적 고점 수준이며 기관은 소프트웨어에서 반도체로 로테이션 중이라 상승 여력이 남아 있다고 봄. 다만 구글 토큰 사용량 성장률이 2차 미분 기준 86% 둔화되고, 마이크론 EPS 성장률은 2027년 이후 급감할 것으로 전망되어 장기적으로는 고점 신호에 주의해야 한다고 경고. 마이크론 실적은 매출 3배, 원가 20% 증가로 가격 결정력이 강하나 모멘텀 과열 상태. 즉시 매도보다는 데이터 기반 전환 시점 감시를 권고.
다듬은 글
Wow, chip valuations as part of the S&P 500 have absolutely exploded. And in this video, I'm going to provide you an analysis on two big warnings regarding the artificial intelligence trade. But we're also going to look into Micron to see what's going on over there, and I'll broadly tell you about where institutions are placing their money.
This is going to be a very important video to watch all the way to the end. Today is coupon code expiration day at meetkevin.com. So if you want to join the Alpha membership and get our calls, like QQQ smashing through 725, which has been accomplished. Another call from the Meet Kevin Alpha report that killed it.
We just broke through 725, which at the end of last month we predicted we would break 725 on QQQ. The people who played it made a lots of money. Way more than it would cost to join. Check i what the data says. So, first, and we'll get into the warnings, but let's talk about what institutions are doing, then we'll do the warnings, then we'll do Micron, because we've got to explain what's going on with Micron.
Chip valuations as part of the S&P 500 right now sit at 18%. Software historically has peaked at uh 15%, which means if you actually look at a percentage of these sectors, you can see that semis right now at 18% are really freaking high. In fact, semis have never been this high as a percentage of the S&P 500.
This is going to be a little bit easier to visualize if we throw some arrows on here. So let's take this white arrow right here. Look at this. Semiconductors are usually under 5% of the S&P 500. They have now approximately four x'd their historical average exposure. Now, software stocks ended up peaking uh over here at about uh just over 15% about 16%.
You have technology stocks peaked at about 25%. So, what does this tell you? Well, boys and girls, it tells us that we still got a room to go. This rally with hardware still has room to expand. Now, obviously, there are warnings, and we're going to get into those warnings and we'll get into Micron and and I'll show you why there's so much enthusiasm for Micron, but I'll also show you how the warnings are literally showing up in the forecast for Micron.
All of that in just a moment. Let's focus though for a moment on what are institutions doing? Well, depends what kind of institutions you're talking about. If you're talking about companies that have a long-term outlook like a Berkshire Hathaway, which is famous for having an extremely patient outlook and avoiding the sort of whims of chasing what the market is doing in the near term because they're trying to hit some kind of performance goal on a year-over-year basis, well, you can see that their stock has basically been flat.
Uh well, actually, I mean, you're certainly down from peak, but you've basically been flat for about a year and a Actually, you could even go all the way back over here. You've been flat for about a year and a half. They're not trying to chase performance. What are people investing in who are chasing performance?
Well, institutions tell us mutual funds and hedge funds are doing the following. Goldman Sachs, hedge funds and mutual funds have continued their recent portfolio rotations away from software and towards semiconductors. So, in other words, they're selling the low exposure and they are chasing the high exposure.
Now, in the very long term, that's usually not the greatest move. In the short term, it feels great, especially if you're a high frequency trader. You move in and out quickly. Short-term, medium-term, hey, totally get it. You hit those performance numbers for the quarter or the year. What do you do?
You chase it. You chase hardware. We've been calling the hardware rally . Software not bottoming yet is what we called. We called for hardware to rally Nvidia, AMD, and memory stocks. It's the call of the beginning of April. If you're not part of these calls, you can go look at the historical calls.
All of our historical calls are there. Go to meetkevin.com and you can join. We have a coupon code expiring tonight, which means the price will be going up. Be another coupon code in the future, but the net price will be higher. So, join and lock in now. . But understand this, people have a tendency to follow hedge funds.
And so, what they'll do is they'll sell their losers, maybe their Microsoft exposure, for example, and they'll go buy a Micron. But they won't understand that that's great in the very short-term, but you've got to be ready to pivot when that when the sectors start rotating. When that high sector starts coming down and the low sectors start moving up.
You're now buying a top. You got to be really cautious. But that's what mutual funds and hedge funds do, but they move a lot faster than retail often does. Retail often look and go, "What? How am I all of a sudden down 50%?" Not paying attention every day. They have a full-time job making sure they're paying attention every day.
Now, this trading this trading strategy by hedge funds and mutual funds tends to still lead to underperformance of the broader market. Historically, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 outperform hedge funds and mutual funds. But whatever. Hedge funds and mutual funds have uh continued their rotation away from software and into semiconductors.
Mutual funds carry the widest underweight of software excluding Microsoft since 2012. Also, hedge funds exposure to software is at the lowest level since 2019. Both hedge funds and mutual funds reduced their positions in Microsoft in the second quarter, and semiconductor stocks have been added including ASML, Intel, and some of these others on screen here.
It's a concentration. It's chasing momentum. Now, in fairness, Micron just hitting $1 trillion market cap. I actually think that AMD is going to be next to hit a $1 trillion market cap, and they're doing really freaking well, especially since DDR production has grown fourfold. Uh and we're I mean, companies like AVGO, you know, Broadcom, and Cisco are plowing money into these uh memory stick base memory chips, sticks, whatever you want to call them.
Micron is interesting because they both use subcontractors to manufacture and they manufacture themselves. But, you got to see what's actually happening their numbers because half of it is actually really ridiculously impressive. The other half gets a little concerning, maybe. We'll talk about that in just a moment.
Instead, before we talk about Micron, we have to know that warning number one is chip value concentration as part of the S&P 500. But, warning number two is actually what Google just announced at the Google I/O conference. Now, usually this is the kind of stuff we just talk about because it gets granular in the course member live streams.
We did this morning. We've talked about this kind of stuff historically. We try to do this every single day the market is open unless, you know, I'm sick or on a you know, rare day off. Almost every single day, we go through what trades are, short-term, medium-term, long-term. So, you got your setup for the day in the Alpha report.
Then, we do fundamental analysis, and then we do Q&A. And we just talk. Okay? That's every single day, and we focus on the nitty-gritty. And I think it's really useful and makes people money. Hopefully, it does. Uh but, what I want to provide is a warning that just came out of the Google IO conference.
So, Google at the opening of their Google IO conference bragged about how token usage at Google, now keep in mind this is token usage at Google. So, I want to be clear. Claude code probably has totally different numbers, okay? Because they have absolutely smashed. They've done really well. Uh, now Google will catch up and Chat GPT will catch up, I'm sure, but this is specifically Google.
So, there's a little bit of an asterisk there. Don't hang your hat so heavily on this, but there is a warning in this, okay? And I'm not trying to be a bear. I'm just trying to show you what you should be paying attention to, so we know when the eventual turn starts coming. It ain't yet. Uh, there's no turnaround yet.
You'll see that with Micron in just a moment. But this is a warning from Google. Okay? Look at this. Google bragged about how we went from 9.7 trillion tokens in 2024 to 480 trillion tokens in 2025 to 3200 trillion or 3.2 quadrillion tokens in 2026. That sounds or feels exponential, right? Because if you just put those on a chart, it's actually like it's more than straight up.
It feels like the growth has inflected up and it's almost creating this S curve, right? Well, or at least the exponential component of it. But is it? Well, this is where if we take derivatives of this growth, which is just the rate of change. That sounds like such a fancy word. But look at what's happened here.
The growth rate has actually gone from 50x token usage to only 6.6x. So, in other words, the growth rate has collapsed. That is your second derivative. You are down 86% on your growth rate. In fact, if you go chart the first derivative, you could see it's a negative sloping line. So, token usage growth rates have actually collapsed at Google.
Now, everybody only cares about this because this still drives chip buying. This does not matter for the market yet. But, it will. And I want you as a subscriber of the Meet Kevin channel, whether you're watching here for free, you join the courses, whatever, I want you to go, "Damn, bro. I never thought about that." And I'm not saying it's sign that's the sign to, you know, dump everything and sell.
I'm saying this is what you need to be cautious of. This is what you have to be paying attention to. And most people don't. And I'm going to show you how this shows up in Micron earnings in just a moment. So, again, the second derivative is a negative 86% on token usage at Google. Now, maybe Claude will come save the day, and maybe this is truly exponential over at Claude code.
Maybe it is. We'll see what happens when we actually get the data and these companies start going public, which is why I think when ChatGPT, SpaceX, and Anthropic are public, we might get closer to a top. But, that ain't yet. We got to get through all the entertainment first. And frankly, I have to say, Micron is the definition of massive massive PP right now.
Uh I mean, literally, I need the Halo guy to come in and remind you how massive it is. Here. Big PP. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Big PP. Now, I want to show you the actual data. Look at this. Revenue at Micron has approximately three x'd. Their costs of goods sold have only gone up 20%. That means they are basically taking everything in price.
Which means they have by definition some of the absolute largest pricing power we have seen of a company. This is like the opposite of what's going on at John Deere. Topic for a different video. This is massive pricing power. They could just raise prices and people are paying it. And as a result, their earnings per share are up 8.6%.
Their balance sheet is doing totally fine. They've got enough cash and receivables to cover their bills and long-term debt. And in fact, if you go down to their cash flow statement, you can see they're paying off $4.6 billion of debt. Now, they are throwing $11.7 billion into y manufacture DRAM and NAND chips, DDR4.
They manufacture some of these chips themselves. So, they are also a manufacturer. People forget that. But, they also use subcontractor manufacturers, which is what Nvidia does. They just sub everything out, mostly to TSMC. Micron does both. The reason Micron's stock has done so phenomenally is because Wall Street has underestimated their growth.
Wall Street projected that this company would grow EPS to $26 this year. And then, they report earnings and their forecast and Wall Street's like, "Oh my gosh. We are way off. This company is actually now projected to raise $59.16 of EPS." Let me just simplify that for a moment. Wall Street's like, "Damn, man.
This company used to make like $5 of earnings. We think they're going to go from $5 of earnings to $26. Yeah, we got these projections down." And then the company comes out and it's like, "Yeah, no. We're going to be closer to $60." More than double. So, that insane growth has led to one of the easiest momentum trades, and that's what we're seeing here.
Look at the weekly chart. Look at the RSI. The relative strength index on the weekly chart has been above 70 with the apps, you know, taking into account here about November of 2025 and a little bit right around oh, we're going to eliminate the civilization of Iran. You kill those two points right here.
The relative strength index has been overbought for about 7 months. And the stock has been straight up. It's been straight up because legitimately they keep making more money. And their forecasts are that they're going to keep growing. In fact, the current forecast is that this company's going to grow earnings by 76% next year, which is really good.
But forecasts after that are -5.4% +6.8% -2.7%, which means if you're doing a PEG ratio calculation, everything is based on next year for this company. Now, maybe they'll smash earnings for next year as well. I don't think there's any writing on the wall that hardware is going to roll over yet. But I'll tell you, once we get through whatever growth we get right here at that 76 level for next year, these growth levels are not sexy anymore.
And those growth levels come in 2028, 29, 30, which is knocking on the door of what we saw at 2031, where China is probably going to be printing their own memory chips, Nvidia-style chips, and you know, all all of the, you know, Huawei investments will come to fruition in years from now to likely crimp and compress our hardware rally here.
No signs of that yet. But the point is the writing is on the wall. Now Wall Street could be wrong again about these numbers. They could be way low on these numbers again. But the point is the writing is on the wall that these growth rates are going to plummet. Not only are we seeing that at Micron, but we are also seeing that at token usage.
Again, second derivative is negative. So, it's early. You want to be aware of these warnings. None of this says you got to, you know, ring the bell of profits right now and bail. There's still money to be made, but it's a way of saying that eventually this is going to hit a wall and these are places you could start watching for that wall to get hit.
I want you to be aware because at some point it's going to transition. It's going to be a transition that occurs based on data, not on some kind of emotional flip-flop. We use data both on this channel and in the Alpha membership. And if you're not part of it yet, I don't know why. Send me an email [email protected] and tell me, "Kevin, this this is why I want to punch you in the face." Or whatever it is, I want to know.
Give me some feedback. It'd be helpful so maybe I can like I'll put some makeup on. I I don't you know, I don't I'm not wearing any makeup. Uh you can uh you can let me know why you don't like my face. But use that Memorial Day 26 coupon code. It expires tonight. We'll have a price increase. , the new reinvest course, uh yeah, psychology of money, , debt, trading, tax write-offs, epic tax strategies, long-term family wealth, sales, negotiating, stocks and psychology of money, zero to millionaire real estate investing, real estate agent and sales and negotiations.
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