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이란 협상 교착 속 합의 진척 기대를 말하며 시장은 확인되지 않은 합의 기사에 반응한다고 주장. 호르무즈 재개 시 시장 회복 가능성 언급. 트럼프 지지율 39.6%, 반대 58.4%. 미 고용시장 급락 신호는 현재 없다고 진단하고, AI로 인한 기술직 일자리 증가를 근거로 제시. 시청자에게 생명보험 제휴 링크 홍보.
다듬은 글
Where the heck is our Iran deal? Daddy needs to come through for Barron and his probable to $129 million call option profit on oil tanking. Okay, we don't actually know that that is Barron's call option that if oil falls under $90 Tuesday morning, somebody's going to make $129 million. But what we do need to do is break down what is going on because we still don't have a deal and it's been 24 hours since Donald Trump said, "We're in the finalization stages and basically we have the concept of a plan." Maybe we'll get this one as soon as Donald Trump's healthcare plan Sorry, we're not supposed to get political.
Let's stick to the facts. Hey everyone, meet Kevin, your 51/49 analyst. You know, every time I say that I think I get like a 50,000 comments saying, "He's not 51/49. He is a raging and then like fill in like left or rightest." And then there are like an equal number of those comments and then I'm like, "Just what I wanted." Anyway, um Pakistan admits that this deal between the United States and Iran is not final, but uh there has been quote encouraging progress towards a final understanding.
Marco Rubio this morning told us that good news is coming. The Quincy Institute argues that this memoran- memo of understanding may not solve all of the issues, but it's a sign of willingness towards a broader deal. Personally, I you know, yesterday obviously we always have our healthy sense of skepticism, but the point is anytime we make even incremental steps towards a better resolution, even though it is not a full return of what we've previously had, the stock market rallies.
This is true of tentative trade deals that aren't finalized yet. This is true of tentative farmer deals that are actually worse deals than what we had before Donald Trump doinked with it. And it's very likely to be true of whatever this deal is with Iran. Al Jaze- Al excuse me, suggests that Iran the Iranians may actually be okay with the deal and that there are two real remaining sticking points of the deal.
Number one, they want all their frozen assets back. And number two, they want another 30 to 60 days to negotiate exactly what's going to happen with the nuclear enriched uranium or highly enriched uranium part of their nuclear program. Donald Trump originally wanted just the 460 kg of highly enriched 60% plus uranium.
Now Donald Trump says he wants all 2,000 kg of enriched uranium including all of the lower or potentially higher levels of enriched uranium. To me that's Donald Trump likely just negotiating to try to go for a big number and get something smaller, but the smaller number is actually his goal or greater than his goal.
Sort of art of the dealish, right? And the Iranians actually surprisingly to this are a quote unquote open to a phased process. They are also apparently now suggesting that they're okay with disposing some of their highly enriched and non-highly enriched so their regular uranium stockpile. This was actually really surprising.
This was reported in Axios. We'll go ahead and pull that up so you can see it directly here. As part of the deal the Iranians will agree in principle and we'll see what that means to dispose some of their enriched uranium stockpile. Okay, some maybe not all and the parties will discuss how to do it.
Nobody disputes the stockpile will be disposed of. The question is how the Iranian official says. Trump administration wants this to cover the full 2,000 kg. This will all be part of the future discussion. Each side is suggesting that this is going to take some time that finalizing this deal could actually potentially take days even though yesterday Donald Trump implied it was imminent.
And the person with that $129 million of call option profits on the line is probably really really waiting for a deal right now. I know they're subscribed to the Meet Kevin channel. In fact, uh honestly, they're probably part of the Meet Kevin Alpha report, you know? They really leaned in on everything's going to be daco, daco, daco, and we're going up.
You can check that out over at meetkevin.com. We do have that Memorial Day coupon expiring Tuesday evening, which is coming up. The supreme leader supposedly has also endorsed portions of this deal, which is a very good sign. And Donald Trump here is trying to do everything in his power to make sure that this deal avoids him being labeled as worse than Obama, given that, you know, I mean this is what Democrats are saying, and they're kind of right to point it out.
Iran didn't have control or even partial control over Hormuz previously, and now they do, and now they're potentially going to toll it. Uh in addition, this talk about getting nuclear dust is a far cry from having weapons inspections and an agreement to delay a nuclear program by 15 years. Yes, it was an Obama kick-the-can-down-the-road.
It didn't permanently deal with it, but we had way more insight and oversight into what Iran was doing compared to now, obviously. Now, no deal is perfect. We'll see what we end up getting with Donald Trump, but for now it's worth mentioning that the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal is absolutely reaming Donald Trump right now.
This is the editorial board, so it technically doesn't reflect the opinion of the paper. It reflects the opinion of these this group of writers, collectively known as the editorial board at The Wall Street Journal. Um it's very hard to distinguish the difference between the actual paper and the editorial board.
Most people get confused by that. It's totally reasonable. But anyway, they are like reaming him right now because they're like, "Bro, what is this Donald Trump insistence on a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund that's allegedly part of this quote-unquote settlement with his lawsuit with the IRS, which the IRS is essentially a department that he has control over anyway, so it's almost kind of like a deal with himself to get a 1776, you know, patriotic, yeah, defend the patriots, and anybody who has been a victim of uh democratic injustice by a weaponization of the judicial judicial system can end up applying to access money as part of this anti-weaponization, you know, plan.
But the problem with this is a lot of Republicans are pissed. They're like, Donald Trump already pardoned the J6 rioters, but now he wants the rest of us to pay them as well. And they're basically saying, "Hey Donald Trump, this is a great way to lose the midterms." In fact, they're literally saying, "Donald Trump called on the firing of the parliamentarian for refusing to allow budget reconciliation to authorize $220 million from Congress to go from taxpayer money to Donald Trump's ballroom." After all, the ballroom we were sold was that it would be one that would require no public money because we basically extorted Nvidia and other big companies into donating to that ballroom fund.
And this is you know, I'm not trying to be political about this. I'm just reading off what the editorial board is saying. And as far as the extorting, let's let's be real. We know that the companies that are donating to this ballroom expansion are doing so because they expect favors in return. I mean, that's politics and it happens in every administration.
So by no means do I want to come across as here trying to like just slam one side. Democrats, Republicans, they they all politicians do slimy things. Some do more slimy things than others. But the point of this is simply to say that Donald Trump really needs a deal because he's you know, losing support in Congress, he's losing support for the war.
President's job approval, his disapproval level is at you know, 58.4, his approval level is at 39.6. The lowest so far in his term. And they actually leave off by saying, "If you don't want to end up getting impeached for a third time and you don't want to be a failed of a second term president, you better figure out how to quote unquote get a reset going here.
Otherwise, it's going to be bad. Uh and so, all of that is to say that when you have typically conservative-leaning editorial boards generally defensive of Donald Trump railing on Donald Trump, it's no surprise that Donald Trump is all of a sudden now calling Iran more professional, even though each side argues and quotes that they're ready to fight and they're ready to go back to war.
Donald Trump is you know, not ready to go back to a fight. The um a Tasnim news agency said that Iran is prepared for a potential failure of nuclear talks. If these nuclear negotiations collapse, despite signs of potential initial understandings via the MOU memorandum of understanding, Iran has armed forces that remain on full alert considering the US government's history of warmongering and crimes, as well as the potential for aggression from both White House and the Israelis.
So, in other words, there is work to do. You also have uh Benj uh you know, Bibi Netanyahu uh over at Israel, he posted on X that he spoke with Trump yesterday about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, expressed my appreciation. But basically, uh while the Iranians really want Hezbollah to stop fighting so the Iranians can stop their incursion into Lebanon to clear out Hezbollah, it it's not clear if Iran is going to be on board with that.
Although, Axios is not pointing that out as one of the three sticking points, the sanction funds, nuclear, Hezbollah doesn't show up in that. But Bibi is bringing that up again, which was a problem initially in the first ceasefire. Now, you also have the Iranian uh president who is not Ghalibaf, you know, this the Ghalibaf is is your head of parliament.
And huh, this guy, Ghalibaf, is a lot more aggressive. The The is a lot more chill. We are ready to assure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons. We are not seeking instability. This is from Trey Yingst here on X. That's That's great. And we've heard stuff like this before. In fact, they have said this for 40 years.
So, it's it's hard to say that that has any weight. But, things feel like they're going in the right direction despite the fact that you do have commentary like this, quote, "Unless we remove all their enriched uranium, gain regular inspections, and remove their control over the strait, we are in a worse position than we were when this started and so are allies." Yeah, this is actually not untrue.
This person is relatively accurate with this. Uh Xi Jinping has promised Iran that China will have all their weapons resupplied shortly after a deal is signed. And with that, Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz whenever it wants. So, obviously, this is These are just comments here. This isn't something that, you know, we can independently verify that that's exactly what's going on.
But, it wouldn't surprise us that uh both Russia and China would love after a deal is made to restock Iran and be a nice big customer, especially without our new oil revenue that have coming in on top of the money printer they're running. Uh but, anyway, what what we look at more sources, we can see that the goal again is some form of 60-day ceasefire expansion during which the strait would be reopened.
Yes, there will be additional damage. Yes, it will take time to restart production. Uh but, markets are very forward-looking and with the lack of breadth that we have right now in the stock market, really actually in fear levels. This is the CNN greed and fear indicator, which I I always find it mind-blowing that CNN is the reference point for this, but this is what everybody on social media tends to reference.
So, I just wanted to bring it up to point out the fear portions, which is why we're basically only agreed over here. The fear portions are breadth and this is why I said yesterday if we can get Hormuz opened, even if it takes a year to rebuild everything uh the way it was, probably even better, uh then that could be okay because markets tend to look through that as long as our labor market doesn't fall through a cliff, you know, fall off a cliff, which so far there's no indication that it is.
You know, we did have indications over the last 2 years, but those have substantially subsided. I think it was Goldman just this morning. Pretty decent piece from Goldman, and this is going off memory. I didn't pull it up. I didn't think I was going to talk about it, but Goldman this morning had an argument that um a lot of areas that are hiring right now, especially in technology, had worker shortages before AI.
So, you've actually net net created this new opening of jobs. So, yes, while some are losing their jobs, there's this offsetting force where now there's no more shortage in certain tech industries, which is actually phenomenal. It's, you know, a lot easier to hire junior devs now cuz it's sort of like, "All right, all right." "Go learn cloud code." Okay, I'm I'm not trying to like talk down any particular industry, but, you know, there has been more labor force availability and there have been new opportunities as a result of AI.
Now, there are still other concerns regarding artificial intelligence, and these concerns we'll be addressing some of in a later video. We'll be talking about the token S curve. I actually think that is a critical piece, especially if you're investing in hardware, but we'll see. I did also just get an Al Jazeera 21 minute ago update in less than 24 hours after Trump proclaimed an agreement was largely negotiated Iranian officials are already projecting a tone shift.
A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of US retreat on two issues, the unfreezing of funds and a ceasefire in Lebanon. Right, because they don't Donald Trump doesn't want to be seen as "Oh, he gave billions of dollars to Iran." Because nobody like even if it's Iran's own money, the public perception is, "Wow, you handed them a bag." Although the draft deal includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, Israel is reportedly pushing Washington to include language that would allow it to carry out military operations in Lebanon.
This makes sense if we align it with the BB post on X because that was his biggest concern. Anyway, there you have it. There's what's going on. Use the coupon code over at meetkevin.com. Get your life insurance in as little as 5 minutes by going to meetkevin.com/life. Boy, I haven't I actually haven't promoted that life insurance link in a long time.
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