저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Enphase(ENPH)는 데이터센터용 솔리드스테이트 마이크로인버터 발표 이후 급등했으나 주거용·PPA 사업 부진과 매출 감소(-20.5%)가 문제라고 지적. 밸류에이션(PEG 약 1.73)상 상승여력 있다며 소액 비중 고려 가능하다고 주장, 단 매출 성장 입증 필요. Walmart는 막대한 자본지출과 부채(유동부채 1,140억 달러) 부담으로 회피 권고. Symbotic은 PEG 1.46 기준 연말 80달러 적정가 전망. 영상 말미에 자사 코스 쿠폰 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
If you like money, in my opinion, there are two stocks to pay attention to. One on the upside and one on the downside. We'll start with the fun one, the upside one, and we're going to get right into it. Welcome. It's me, Kevin. Let's get started. Ready for this? Folks, the secret stock we teased yesterday that we called as having meme potential on Tuesday and being a solid short-term trade and likely good for the rest of the year is Enphase.
And the stock has rocketed from the low 40s up over actually. Probably even more than that, probably closer to about 50% uh if you track from uh when we started shouting this out on Tuesday, which is pretty remarkable. So, what's going on with Enphase? This is an $8 billion company, which I just want to put that into perspective for you.
$8 billion is teeny, tiny. I think one of the reasons Nvidia is having such trouble breaking that 227 level, which we barely broke out of and then immediately lost over here, is because it's a $5 trillion company. Microsoft, too, is a $3 trillion company. Although, Microsoft, I've got good things to say about Microsoft because I personally think they'll be able to turn the dial of spending off on data center spend and they'll just keep milking money from their service revenue.
So, I actually am more bullish Microsoft. Uh but these are big stocks. That's why it's been so hard for Google to stay above 400, right? And so, what you're noticing is some of those smaller, cheaper stocks are really killing it. Uh like one of my favorites right now that we're investing in is Marvell.
Uh and uh Marvell is sitting at just $171 billion. Uh relatively small. It's done exceptionally well in the hardware race. Of course, SanDisk is one that I think is heavily overvalued. I'm not a fan of but the point is $200 billion market cap. So, you notice those big trillion-dollar ones are struggling a little bit more than those smaller ones.
We've also this morning shouted another one out, which we'll talk about later when we talk about the stock to avoid. It's sort of integrated in it. It's sort of like buy this, not that. So, it'll be a fun video. But let's talk first about Enphase. So, first of all, when I say this is an $8 billion market cap and I give you those numbers on the other ones, it's important to remember it's tiny.
And when it's tiny, that's not necessarily just a good thing. So, be careful with that because it can mean you could get a lot of volatility both to the upside and the downside. So, don't forget about that. Like this can move to the downside heavily and rapidly. It's been extremely heavily shorted, and I think that's one of the reasons we've recently seen a short squeeze along with the Enphase announcement.
And I'll show you what's going on because the earnings have not been good. I've been bearish on Enphase for about 2 years. Back during the solar boom, I loved Enphase. They had the greatest pricing power ever. But the problem is after we started seeing the tax incentives get killed for solar, the end was nigh, and unfortunately, Enphase started getting into power purchase agreements, which I personally think is a low-margin business where you're competing with all the other solar companies for residential customers, and you really have no pricing power.
And so, I have regularly complained about Enphase having lost their PPA. And I've been really disappointed in Enphase because of that, and so I've really been avoiding the stock. And I've said this every time people have asked me, "What about Enphase, Kevin?" That's been my answer for about the last 2 years.
And the company is actually finally realizing that, which then of course makes you should make you wonder, "Wait a minute, Kevin. Then why why all of a sudden are we interested in it?" You'll see in just a moment. This was the analysis that I did a few days ago in our course member live stream. I went through the earnings call and I I literally finally finally see them drop their ego and face has regularly had a ego about not wanting to reduce prices.
They'd rather reduce volume because they're contract manufacturer and now they're literally saying the opposite. You know, we're going to get more competitive. We're going to you know, work our pricing and we're going to make pricing corrections on batteries and inverters and and you know, we've already made some pricing corrections and we're going to make some more.
In other words, they realize in the residential market they've almost like going bankrupt. They're not going to bankrupt. They've got a good balance sheet. But it's almost like they're going bankrupt because they're losing and so that's why they've had to sign up with power purchase agreements, which I'm not a big fan of.
So why then all of a sudden is this stock getting short squeezed and why all of a sudden am I talking about this as having potential? Well, I'll explain, but first know this. Short interest right now sitting as of mid-april at like 27.7%. So I think this sort of like doubling that we've seen since mid-april is you know, shorts getting squeezed out.
Some of that I think led to a lot of this recent push on the stock price. So I'm not saying this is going to be straight up, but I actually think this has really good potential and it's really underrated for the hardware rally, which in my opinion means mostly because I think the market is sort of going to top when we get the open AI, SpaceX, and Anthropic IPOs.
I think that's kind of when all the market money has gotten squeezed. Maybe I'll be wrong about that, but I actually think that still gives us a run rate on hardware and people are going to be looking for hardware catch-up plays, especially related to AI. Okay, Kevin, we'll get to the point. Why why are we talking about Enphase then?
Well, it's obviously so that I have an opportunity to pitch you the coupon code for the Meet Kevin course membership, which expires on Tuesday. We'll have another big price increase, and you should get in so you get this fundamental analysis before we go public with it. Uh we did this fundamental analysis back uh what, Monday or Tuesday?
Uh and uh it's been a rocket ship for course members. I think a lot of course members paid for their course 10, 20, 100 times over with this call on Enphase. But, what changed, folks? This is what changed. Enphase Energy announces the development of a solid-state microinverters for data centers. Mic drop.
Totally new TAM. And I actually think they are underestimating their TAM at $400 million. I don't know why in the earnest call they're calling it $400 million. I think it's totally underestimated. But, there's something really beautiful and a game-changer about data centers. Data centers right now are using basically their own peaker plants, like the Bloom Energy gas turbines.
Great. I'm not dump I'm not here to dump on Bloom. I think the valuation's a little high, but I'm not here to dump on it. It's got incredible growth because people need it to get energy going so they can plug in these GPUs. Green energy though is what helps you get the public to say, "All right, maybe maybe the data centers are not so bad." Uh and green energy is also cheaper, especially with what's going on with war moves.
Although natural gas prices have been relatively insulated in the United States, it's worth knowing that green energy, I know a lot of uh the green new scam. I know, I know. But, it's a PR move, and it's stable, especially where a lot of these data centers are being built. This I think is a massive opportunity.
Designing inverters for data centers is a brilliant play, and you've got the CEO of the company buying I mean, not a lot. He bought like a quarter of a million dollars worth of shares, which I don't know what his net worth is, but you know, it seemed kind of kind of on the lower side. But, he did make sort of that token purchase.
But, I actually think it's very interesting because this announcement has just really opened pre-orders as of May 13th, which is like 2 weeks ago. In Q1, they only recognized like $5 million worth of commercial shipments, which is an absolutely nothing for this company. And I actually think that Enphase has a moat over the Chinese companies because Enphase can get the ITC bonuses, which is as long as you have 10% domestic content, you can get that.
And they have contract manufacturing in the United States. In fact, 25% of the batteries they get, which batteries are usually pretty high margin, are made in the United States. Yeah, that means the rest is China, so it's worth paying attention to, but this is basically a way of saying we think that Enphase's crashing and shrinking PP might actually finally be bottoming because they're opening themselves up to the commercial business.
Now, their margins are going down because they're finally reducing prices, but that means revenue might finally turn around. So, I'm not saying this is like an all-in play yet. We still actually want to see proof in the pudding. This is early. We're making this early. But, look at this. Revenue's collapsed in the last year because they just started their solar sales to to commercial enterprises.
If you look at this revenue, you've got a decline of 20.5%. You actually had a loss in the first quarter. It was total trash. Their reliance on residential and power purchase agreements was a complete failure, and their stubbornness to drop prices was a failure. However, I am bullish on their data center move.
I think it is a ridiculously cheap play for that purpose. At $8 billion, it's a drop in the bucket. In addition to that, if we look at the valuation for it, let me go to my uh course member stock tab, which you get access to when you're a course member. Uh the the company I've got right now at Let me make sure we've got this set.
Uh the last analysis we did put them at about a 1.76 PEG, which gave them about 35% upside. We're going to currently jump in and we're going to get the latest PEG read for you. Uh so, stock currently trading at about $63. We're going to go for the fundamental analysis here of forecast on EPS. $2.08 is the forecast for EPS for the rest of the year.
That is December 31st. If I divide that into their price, I'm going to be at about 30 times. Now, my EPS growth is expected to be 16.2, 20.3, 16.2 uh for the next 3 years. Unfortunately, out to 2030, I think uh Bloomberg thinks that's going to flatline. I disagree with that. I'm going to leave off the fourth year.
Uh that puts them at about an average of 17.56% growth. 30.55 / 17.56 puts them at about a 1.73 PEG. So, we're still at a place where we're not overvalued. We've still got upside. So, if I go to 67 / about 173, I've got about 54% upside. In my opinion, that pushes us through $80, maybe into the 90s.
Could it momentum past that? Past that, honestly, it's going to take real realized revenue from this commercial hardware. Because if all of the commercial enterprises just reject Nphase and say, "Nah, man, we don't think this is going to happen." then forget about it. Forget about it. It's screwed. So, it's risky.
Is it worth maybe a small allocation? I think so, because there's a good chance that if they end up latching onto solar deployments at data centers, then this could be one of those US 10Xers. Now, to 10X, you're really going to need an explosion in those commercial revenues. Let's just see the balance sheet to see if we have the time to wait for that opportunity.
And let's get to the next stock. We've got $930 million. That's nearly enough to pay off all of their long-term and short-term debts. We've only got $310 million of short-term debts. And if we look at the cash flow statement right here, we could see we've got cash from operations of about 100 mil. I've got plant, property, and equipment of about 20.
So, we got free cash flow of about $80 million in 3 months. So, we really don't have a balance sheet issue. Uh we did settle out on some of our notes over here, which absorbed some of our cash. And we're not raising more debt. No stock buybacks, not raising more debt, plenty of cash flow to survive, plenty of cash to pay their bills.
What we're waiting for, and this is this will get proved out or not in the next 6 months, is we need to see these revenues start growing again. And the next two or three quarters could be huge for Enphase for that. Uh and I think there'll be a lot of optimism around data centers. Now, with that out of the way, let's go jump into Walmart after I do a really quick peek at the Enphase earnings call just to make sure there wasn't anything else I wanted to say here.
Nope, we already addressed that. And we already addressed that. There's the TAM of $400 million. But now you don't have to take my word for it. You can see where it was from. All right. So, what I want to point out here at Walmart, in my opinion, this is a stock to avoid. I'm going to show you. This is a company that is deploying massive free cash to catch up to Amazon.
Remember when Amazon went through their actual build out to get to like one-day free shipping and all of that? Yeah, it was extremely expensive. And so what you notice here is they've got negative free cash flow about $2 billion in 3 months. They are going through the explosion of CapEx to get more automated facilities, distribution centers, and faster for their consumers.
Now, University of Michigan's consumer sentiment was pretty miserable this morning. I actually think the consumer is a terrible bet to make right now. One of the reasons I think the consumer is a terrible bet, which is why I'm bearish Walmart right now, is actually because there's a really good Jefferies piece.
Jefferies had this out and they actually suggest that if you zoom in over here, you're going to see this. Gas prices, if they stabilize around current levels, just for somewhere around 100 bucks a barrel for oil, right? And gas is obviously derived derived from that gasoline. The increase in tax refunds from the big beautiful bill would help consumers cover their spending through roughly July.
Mhm. So consider that Walmart just actually reduced and missed on guidance by about 3 and 1/2%, which led them to drop about 7%. It's potentially Well, Walmart says in their earnings call it's because consumers, the lower-end consumer, is getting a little bit more choosy. The higher-end consumer is still blowing money at Walmart and their Walmart membership, which is great.
But, the way you have to look at Walmart, in my opinion, is as a company that is going to take a lot of their cash flows from that Walmart membership, and they're going to blow all of it on, well, frankly, building out their facilities, which in my opinion makes it it it creates a better play for the stock that's available.
So, I'm going to explain what that better play is. First, they do pay off some debt. They refinanced $2 billion of debt. They did $2 billion in dividends, $2 billion in buybacks, but they're still net up $6 billion of debt because they issued $8.3 billion of debt. When you look at their cash or their balance sheet, you can actually see, where is the balance sheet?
Where's the balance sheet? Here it is. They literally have $114 billion of current debts. They have $21 billion of cash. I literally wrote, "What the F? How do they pay their bills?" Inventory at $62 billion, fine. So, they have to sell inventory, but they have to issue debt to pay their bills. Plus another $37 billion long-term.
So, what's the play? Because this company is drowning in debt. They're blowing their membership revenue right here of $2 billion on on, you know, building out their distribution centers. And if you actually look closely over here, they talk about half of their e-commerce centers are automated, and they want to increase that automation.
How does Walmart increase their automation? The way you increase your automation, folks, is very simple. Symbotic. S Y M This is another stock we shouted out in the course member livestream. Uh actually just this morning we shouted this out. Bro, holy smokes. I wasn't expecting that. So, this morning we shouted this out at $51, $52, and in the course member livestream I said, "Hey, this is a great place to consider Symbotic.
It's at the 52 line, which if you zoom out on the technical basis has been decent support. I mean, it's not perfect. You could see it slides past 52 sometimes down to about 42. 42 is a little bit better of like a clear support, but 52 has been a line we've have bounced off many times before here, here, here, here, here.
Uh and and we're kind of busting through right now. It was overvalued in the '70s and '80s, and and will probably continue to be unless more companies start ordering Symbotic uh automation uh vehicles. They're like a part manufacturer, part contract manufacturer. They basically take forklifts and they slap AI onto them and make them uh autonomous.
It's pretty freaking incredible. I actually think it's a fantastic company. I'm a big fan of Symbotic. Uh I think this is the right price for them. Let me do a forecast on them. So, in phase I'm looking for 80 to 90. Let me go to the stock tab on uh Symbotic. It's been a minute since I've been done a fundy on Sym.
Maybe we'll have to do an a fresh Sym uh analysis in the course member live stream. You know, we spend an hour usually half an 30 minutes to an hour every day doing fundamental analysis. Today I was a little talkative. I got a little bit distracted cuz I was trying to do Novo Nordisk. Oh, I got to learn all about Denmark.
Not that there's anything wrong with Denmark. I'm actually going to visit Denmark uh in a couple weeks. That'll be my first time ever. I don't know anything about Denmark. But um so, here's Symbotic. Uh so, their pricing power is increasing. Their valuation is low. They're at a 1.46 PEG. Uh Walmart unfortunately has a lot of customer comp- concentration, but Walmart is in a quest to compete with Amazon.
I literally wrote that back on February 27th. And they'll likely throw down more on robotics. What did they say over here? Oh, we want to spend more uh you know, on on automation. I know. That's why Symbotic is the play. It's not just going to be Walmart though. It's going to be you know, Target's going to wake up and all these other companies are going to wake up to automating because they want to try to compete with Amazon.
So, anyway, at a 1.46 PEG, let's say it's probably, you know, half contract manufacturer, so services, AI. You know, maybe let's give them a 2.2 PEG, right? So, if I go 2.2 where they should end up going, 1.46, this has 50% upside in it. That's not bad. Uh so, 50% upside as long as the growth continues, right?
That's going to be towards the these price targets are towards the end of the year. So, when we were at, you know, 70 bucks in November of last year, that was too early. We were a year too early, right? That puts this at fair value end of the year closer to 80 bucks. You know, that's that's when we break through 64 and we actually hold it.
That's my take on SIM. Uh so, anyway, that's Enphase, Sam, Walmart. I give you a lot of opinions on other stocks as well. If you like this sort of fundamental analysis, join me. Join me we got some cool things scheduled for the beginning of June for the stock membership getting released. That's why we'll be raising the price quite a bit.
And then we've got uh uh the Reinvest artificial intelligence. That is launching at the end of June, which is in about 5 weeks from now. You can use the same coupon over there, Memorial Day 26. I haven't been pitching it as much, but we are getting closer. And when this releases, there's a really good chance House Hack is going to do a fundraise on the back of this release because I think the product release is going to be so freaking huge that people are going to A buy it, B price is going to be higher for the Reinvest real estate AI.
But also C, people are going to want to invest in House Hack. And so, the valuation will be higher. Um you know, TBD, no offering right now, obviously. But uh we'll have a full video and a full game plan for what we're planning on doing with the raise. Uh so, it'll be very explanatory. We're just in the early stages of yapping and thinking right now.
So, anyway, thank you so very much for being here. We'll talk to you in the next one. Goodbye and good luck out ther O'Leary pop right there, financial .
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