저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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트럼프 관세 협상(일본 15% 관세, 무역가중평균 관세율 1.6%→약 16%)을 분석하며, 일본 은행의 미국 인프라·제약 투자 조건부 관세 인하는 '중앙계획경제'적 왜곡이라고 비판. 협상 구조상 관세 부담이 경제 전반에 전가되며 장기적으로 부정적이라는 입장. 자사 알파 리포트 홍보 및 Rocket Mortgage·Opendoor 단기 매매 언급 포함.
다듬은 글
game changer on tariffs today that we need to talk about what Lutnik just said. Besson echoed as well. We're going to break it all down, but some of you have been asking for a sneak peek at what this actually looks like. Here's an example of what the alpha reports look like when I send them out. Remember, you can get them at me.com and you can now use coupon code release the files.
But quick example, this morning before the market opened, a lot of people were looking for a deal like Openoor to invest in. And so I wrote the following. Rocket Mortgage has less but some potential for a push when compared to open. However, it needs to bounce at 1598. Unfortunately, the risk to the downside here is that the 10-year is moving up and that reduces momentum from the Japan deal.
Therefore, it's less likely to be a big mover compared to open. And in our live stream where we covered this, we said not only open is done. And what you really want to pay attention to is that rocket is probably going to dunk to the 1598 line. And look at that triple bounce right here, dropping off a cliff at the open.
And so in case you're wondering what it's like when you get the alpha report, that's a sneak preview of what it looks like. I can't obviously guarantee it's perfect every single day, but the goal is to go into your trading day with a strategy like here's why this could be an up. Here's where it might bounce.
Here's where it might top out. Like with Open Door, I said your highest high, five bucks, went to $4.97. And I told everyone in the alpha report about that before it went anywhere close to that. So that way you had a really clear heads up. And some course members were typing in the chat, "Hey, thanks.
took profits at 490 or whatever. That's the goal because these momentum names don't last. And so if you want my insights on that, check it out at me.com. Donald Trump's trade deal announcement with Japan is extremely unique and changes everything we know about taco for the first time ever. We just heard Howard Lutnik explain that there's much more to the tariff rate than just the tariff rate.
And some of what you're about to hear sounds very central planningesque. We'll get into what that means and what that could mean for American companies and of course the economy. But here's what's going on. Before the Trump administration, the tariffs that we had placed on Japan as a percentage of imports weighted by the dollars, right?
Like for example, you could have a 100% tariff on a certain, I don't know, comb, let's say, for your hair. and a 5% tariff on a calculator and a 0% tariff on something else, right? When we weigh all of this by how much we trade it, we come up with what's called a trade weighted average tariff rate. Uh, and that was 1.6% before Donald Trump took office.
Now, there were threats that this was going to go as high as 25% in the event that a deal was not struck with Japan. Now that a deal has been struck with Japan, which is bullish. I'm actually surprised that the NASDAQ isn't higher, but there's a reason for this. We'll talk about that as well. Now, we have a deal that we're going to have a roughly trade weighted average tariff with Japan of about 16%.
It's because the broad line we're talking about is 15%, but there are other things that lead this to be higher, especially since a lot of these reciprocal tariffs are on top of pre-existing tariffs. So trade weighted average tariff will go from 1.6% to 16%. Which is basically a 10x increase. Somebody has to pay that tariff.
We know that. But that's not what is so unique about what Lutnik just said about the Trump's taco trade. What he actually said is, "We allowed Japan to lower their tariff rate from 25% to 15%, much like a mortgage buy down, so to speak, by promising to have banks in the government in Japan finance deals in the United States, such as infrastructure buildouts, pharmaceutical deals, or whatever, through a combination of loans or equity investments.
All right, let's try to break that down with an example. Let's say that Donald Trump says he wants to produce uh I don't know uh the example they gave was an antibiotic uh making factory. That's the example they gave. Uh but let's add some color to it. So, let's say this is a vial of antibiotics and Donald Trump says, "You know, I really want to make Michigan great again.
We're going to build an antibiotic factory in Michigan." The way that would work is you'd basically pick up the phone to all your Trump donors or go on your Signal group chat and say, "Which one of y'all want some free money to go build a factory in Michigan?" And then you know somebody will go we'll do it.
Let's say it's Fizer. Okay. So Fiser's like we'll go build the antibiotic factory. They're like great Japan $50 million or whatever it is. $200 million whatever it is. $50 million to Fizer please.$100 $200 million to Fiser please. So they could build the project. What you're really doing is you're taxing uh the economy the global economy somewhere.
We don't know where that's going to show up yet. It's probably going to show up in existing companies earnings through higher component costs or electronic costs or potentially more expensive Toyotas as an example, right? Somebody has to pay that. The United States gets some form of an increase in tariff revenue which they could use as subsidies for these projects as well.
And Japan, I guess, gets a lower tariff rate, which incentivizes them to now take an investment stake in this Fiser company, which is probably sold to the Japanese as, hey, when we announce this, the stock is going to go up. So, you could probably pay for your Michigan plant that you're lending against or whatever by buying the stock just like we bought, you know, MP material directly and look, we're up 40% on it or whatever, right?
So you could pay for it by us just kind of like insider trading this announcement, you getting an equity stake, then we make the announcement, then the stock moves. Like I wouldn't be surprised that this is kind of how this ends up playing out and how they sell it. And so this really sounds brilliant from one point of view.
Like I kind of look at it like, huh, this is really interesting. You know, even the reporters who were interviewing Lutnik this morning, they're like, you know, has this ever been done before? And he's like, nope, nope. This is my idea. Never been done before. Trump is the negotiator and chief, but but I'm the idea man.
And I'm thinking to myself, no, this has been done before. It's been done in China because this is exactly what the Communist Party of China does. In fact, Tesla was a rare exception because they wanted Tesla to build out the supply chain for EVs in China, which they did. And now look at how much EV competition there is in China.
So, it was a brilliant 4D chess move by China. But usually what China does is they say, "Hey, we want you to be able to start your business over here. We'll work with the local city to expedite your permits, but we're going to take an ownership interest in your business. We'll take, you know, a 10% stake or whatever, and we'll give you sweet loan financing or whatever, but we want you to focus on this industry, and we want to be able to sort of like guide you with what we want.
What this is is central planning. That's all this is. Rather than the free market deciding, which let's be real, that always triggers the MAGATypes because the MAGA types like Looks we didn't have a free market before. Well, we had a free market by a factor of 10, right? We had trade weighted tariffs of 1.6% which isn't free market which would be zero, but it was onetenth as bad as 16%.
Right? And so now we're moving further away from the free market spectrum. Like if if there's a line and 1.6% 6% is here and this is like totally centrally planned economy with 16% tariffs we're moving this way and then with basically directing investments to Trump's homies who get you know discounted loans from Japan we're going even more in the centrally planned direction.
So now all of a sudden what we're doing is we're over the next few years trying to create jobs where we potentially don't need them. This is where the antibiotic, you know, question is really interesting because like why would they use I don't know why they used antibiotics as an example. They should have really used like drone manufacturing as an example or robotic manufacturing because that is something we could get behind.
Like we want domestic drone manufacturing. Do we really have a shortage of antibiotics in the world? And there's so many there are so many antibiotics that get flushed down the drain on a daily basis that people are worried about superbugs in our sewer systems because we have such an oversaturation of antibiotics and anybody anytime somebody has a sneeze doctors prescribe antibiotics like first thing oh 10day round 10day round 10day round like it's it's been a problem for decades and and now you know doctors are sort of being coaxed into like please prescribe fewer antibiotics let's do a 5-day course instead of a 10-day course now never heard of that when I was a child now they're doing 5day courses because people don't need the whole 10 freaking days anymore.
We're so oversaturated with antibiotics. Point is, that's more of me pointing out that I think Lutnik's choice of an example here was kind of bad because we don't really need more. Uh that said, it shows you the potential downfall of government directing infrastructure. If the government centrally plans and says, "Oh yeah, we need more of this industry and we really don't," then what you're really doing is you're saying by closing the market off more with higher tariffs, companies earnings per share go down.
Companies have to cut costs. Companies then have to degrade the quality of their product as well. Because as soon as you're done cutting costs to a certain point where you can't cut costs anymore, quality degrades and you end up where like you start cutting from the product, that's when the quality, right?
Uh and and so then like the economy suffers because we have worse quality products because of the higher tax rates. This is where dead weight loss comes from. And the idea is whoever is paying the tariffs, let's say we lose a thousand jobs because of that, will you know a centrally planned factory for antibiotics or whatever replace those 1,000 jobs?
Well, even if they did, it would probably happen with a delay, right? So you'd lose the jobs in say 2026 and maybe you'd gain them back in 28 or 29. Okay. Well, that's not great because you've got a dead weight loss here of when people are working and when they have jobs. But then what if your new antibiotic plant only employs 200 people and now you've net lost 800 jobs by centrally planning the economy?
We don't know. Like there's nothing in these policies that really enable us to say we know that this crap is going to hit the fan on this date. What we're really getting is somebody going central planning is great. More government is great. more taxes are great. Somebody else is going to pay for it.
And it like it's basically a pile of crap that's wrapped up in a beautiful bow and and like with some nice birthday wrapping paper and Lutnik and Trump were just throwing it up into the air and it's a this box of crap that looks beautiful and everybody's like, "Oh, Trump's doing so great." And at some point it's going to hit the fan and it's going to come raining down and we have no idea where it's going to rain down.
I don't think the poop is going to slap Trump in the face. It'll slap you in the face, right? And the question is how? Like where? We don't know. So I I don't know how I feel about this. Like my gut reaction when I first heard it, my reaction is oh this is interesting. Okay, Japanese banks basically offering, you know, loan guarantees or cheaper financing or equity investments into American companies.
But it it took me a moment to really think about what this meant. What this meant was not into any American company. It was into centrally directed portions of our economy. So in other words, what the Trump administration wants money to be spent on is what gets the benefit. That's that's my takeaway from this.
The downside again of that is we could be distorting markets in a way we we just don't know what the impacts are going to be and it'll probably take years to really feel and it's it's bottom line somehow not going to be good. I don't think it will end well but I can't tell you where that poop is going to land.
Now Donald Trump uh and Lutnik also talk about this Japan deal potentially being a model for the European Union. Uh, the more we do this model, the more I'm concerned that you're just throwing more poop up into the air. But whatever. Lutnik calls himself the table setter with his, you know, fancy ideas that I think he gets straight out of China.
And he calls himself the table setter, whereas Trump is the negotiator chief. But what is interesting is you did actually see a softening from Lutnik. And I want to talk about that softening. I do quickly just want to shout out that in the alpha report this morning a lot of people were asking me in the course member liveream, hey like is rocket mortgage going to momentum today?
Is this going to be where all the attention from open door goes? Because you know open door is starting to sell off and in the last two days in the meet Kevin Alpha report I suggested that Openoor uh was was probably done with its momentum. We've been pitching it for weeks by the way. So, we've been riding this momentum wave and we're like, "Hey, it's topping out." Like, last two days it's topping out.
It's time to get out. And then people are like, "All right, cool. What's the next play?" It's not always very obvious. This morning, even though in pre-market, Rocket was up a lot. I warned that the 1598 line was a place that we're probably going to go for Rocket. And look at this triple bounce right now on 1598 with a big sell-off at the open.
And if you had the alpha report that you could get at meetke.com, you use coupon code AIBO. Uh then you could join these as well. Uh by the way, if you want, you could also use uh coupon code release the files. It's just another version. It's live now. Release the files if you want. Uh but anyway, so the next the softening that we got from Lutnik was this idea that hey, we're not going to produce everything.
We're going to want cheap clothing from China, uh, but China's going to want some of our fruits or whatever or vegetables. So, we're negotiating below the tariff line about opening up. Now, this is interesting because this is what you want is you want a government that realizes we can't produce everything in the United States.
We're not going to make, you know, toys in the United States. Does it make sense for all of us to go into a factory and produce these brushes? I mean, these are This is the best brush I've ever had because it actually stands on my desk, you know? Like, this is a cool brush. Uh, it cuz it's got a stand.
Oh, what a surprise. I didn't even know this before I said it, but what does the label say, right? I mean, you should be able to see that pretty clearly. It's still a little blurry, but I mean, you get the idea. The label says made in China. Yeah, it's a little better. Uh, and like we're not going to produce these.
There you go. We're not going to manufacture these in America and be crazy, too. So, I'm happy to hear that Lutnik Slutnik Nutlick is finally waking up a little bit, saying, you know, we don't want to make certain things here. And what we really want is, you know, to to get these, you know, unique kind of centrally planned deals where we get like, fine, if we're not going to make toys, then we'll take cheap loans from you.
All right. Now, I do think there's a potential that by throwing around the sort of like clout of America, uh, American companies or or employees could benefit. I just don't know where. Like the distortions are what are the concerning parts, right? Are you for example going to lose your job at UPS because people are buying less stuff on Amazon or whatever?
Uh and then are you all of a sudden going to get the job at that you know Michigan antibiotics viofilling factory? Do you even want that? You know that that is the hard part. So we know we are creating distortions which is bad. We know we are moving away from free trade which is bad. The whole like premise of these tariffs originally was oh we're going to use tariffs to negotiate freer trade because again we weren't 100% free trade but if the the idea was we'll use them as negotiating leverage to get to free trade that's not what we got.
We're actually getting tariffs that are just commanding more of a centrally planned economy. So, I really think there are going to be a lot of bills to pay over the next, you know, 10 years that this will play out. I don't think all of this plays out in the span of a few months because the impact of these tariffs will take a very long time to be felt.
Uh, and I'm not optimistic about it, but I'm also happy to see some softening from Lutnik on we're not going to make everything in America. So, I'm very grateful of that. So that's my take. Somebody says people already losing jobs at uh at uh UPS. Well, exactly. Uh that's that's exactly right. So uh so let's see here.
South Korea picked specialized industries to protect not just any old product. Well, yeah. I mean that's what everybody's ultimately going to do. It's like to some extent you're going to have more protectionism from other countries. And this makes sense. I mean, we also have protectionist policies like not selling China our H100s, right?
This is very very normal. Uh so somebody says we're in the middle of a recession. We should be done by October. Well, I don't think you finish a recession until you have a giant uh layoff spike, unfortunately. But anyway, uh yeah. Anyway, if you want more of that alpha report, go check it out at me.com and that gives you an update on what's going on with Terrenc.
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