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The Nasdaq fell sharply before the close, and Jim Cramer blamed it on SpaceX's entry into the Nasdaq 100. If index funds had to buy SpaceX and sell existing shares to rebalance, it could create billions in mechanical flows. Did this pressure affect today's opening? Maybe, but it probably was n't the only driver.
Profit-taking, option positioning and weaker risk sentiment likely added to the move. If the Nasdaq recovers quickly at the open, it would indicate a flow-driven sell-off, not a fundamental one. So, I'm asking you this question: uh, do you think the late Nasdaq selloff could have been a result of SpaceX?
Yesterday? I mean, I didn't realize we sold out. It was something like a whole 100 points on the Nasdaq. I don't know, man. I think that's an exaggeration. I-I-I-I-I haven't-I-I've seen such a movement, I would say. That's not to say it wasn't happening beneath the surface, but I didn't notice any such movement.
I think it will happen at some point in time, I think given the size of SpaceX, maybe it will impact the industry at some point, but I did n't notice it yesterday. Yes. Yes, I think it was just an attempt to achieve a goal. Like you, maybe the flows could have happened in a way that created this micro-sell here, but still it wasn't big enough to get the attention of everyone who's following the markets.
Um, and if you look at the difference between SpaceX and Nasdaq, SpaceX is completely immobile right now. The Nasdaq is down a little bit, but I think when it comes to these things, the market smooths it out pretty well so that there's no room for arbitrage in these situations. So know. Let's look at the 1- minute chart.
I mean, now I want to see it. This is a 1- minute SpaceX timeline. Or that one, any of them, Nasdaq, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, it was yesterday at the end of the day. Uh, if we look at the 6th number and we zoom in, and we zoom in... Yeah, that's where the closure is. Great big red stripe there. This is closure.
That's it. Oh, yes. I think it's just a matter of general movement. Oh, uh, wait. After closing, until nightfall? I don't know about that. I mean, you're talking about from from from literally from closing right there. Are you that movement? I don't...I still don't think so. I'm going to say no. No.
No. I...yeah, I don't think the movement was big enough. And this is not a continuation that does not occur during the same period of time. Well, there was a little shopping at the end of the day. There was a small purchase at the end of the day. I can't deny that. A bit of a sudden rise and a little growth.
But, yeah, I think the volatility, so, I think the point is, the volatility was expected. SpaceX volatility, even this increase, of course, happened technically, but it's a five- point increase. We expect a range of 10 to 11 points by the end of the week. We expect 17 points by the end of next week.
So, this is an expected move. Two to three, three to four, five points daily in SpaceX, that's all that's expected based on the current expected volatility. Um, again, I think sometimes you have headlines like that, and yes, maybe there's some weight to that. But I don't think this is anything groundbreaking in terms of market manipulation, arbitrage opportunities, etc., because the market does a really good job of smoothing.
Like last time. When was the last time you saw dividends removed from a stock price ? No, yes. It's almost impossible to see. If this happens. It happens. It has to be really huge for it to be noticeable. Yes. And there shouldn't be any market movements to offset that. That's really the thing. It's like, yeah, it could happen.
If there was a flat market and nobody else was doing anything, you would probably see something with SpaceX and Nasdaq, but since the markets are constantly moving, it kind of overshadows events like that. Yes. Like this event, and I think dividends are a really good argument in the same light, where if there's a 50 cent dividend, a dollar dividend, the dividend is removed from the stock price, but the stock price still goes down.
So you just don't see it. Well, from your point of view, it is known. It is known that this will happen. And again , I mean, the whole world knew that SpaceX was getting ready for this for the first time. And yes, I mean, you see the buyback program in SpaceX, but I don't see the corresponding movement in the Nasdaq.
And again , this is me...We're talking about the end of the day. So, again , what we saw was from 2:40 PM Central Time to 3:00 PM, was a purchase program from SpaceX. I didn't see a corresponding significant movement in the Nasdaq. But then again, everyone knew this would happen. There was no possibility for arbitration.
I mean, basically, if you bought SpaceX at 155 and changed yesterday, you just rode it. You're lucky. And everyone was there to buy it. This is just a classic buy-sell movement that you see. I mean, these are classic market-related things. Nothing extraordinary, I would say. Yes. And, uh, opportunities for arbitration are very rare.
You need to time it perfectly. That's the thing. If you bought SpaceX thinking the stock would go up because of the inclusion, but you bought it at 162, then you're actually down, well, from yesterday's high. So, I'm sure many people are appreciating yesterday's highs. Yes, I think it's hard to boil it all down to that, but it's definitely interesting to watch the movement that we're seeing today.
But still we hesitate. Anything within 1% is basically expected, so nothing too crazy in terms of the movement pushing and pulling this thing. I think this graph shows exactly that. This graph shows that everyone thought, "Oh, they're going to buy specs at the end of the day." And the sellers came, bang, they broke them.
Yes. They lowered them all the way to 155. And then suddenly they said, “Okay, we’re going to buy one someday. Are they going to buy? Are they going to...That's all the calm. Are they going to buy? Are they going to buy? Oh, they buy it. They buy it." And then you see it.
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