저자: TomSosnoff계열tastylive진행자및출연자 · 외국인
요약 보기
버리의 AI 버블 경고와 마이크론의 강한 실적(매출 346% 성장, 총마진 84%+, 2028년까지 AI 메모리 매진)을 대비. 마이크론 내재변동성 100% 이상으로 가격 변동 기대치 매우 큼. 출연자는 실적 기반 복원력을 인정하며 나비형/캘린더 스프레드, 아이언콘도르 등 변동성 전략을 설명. 방향성 예측보다 옵션 구조 활용에 초점.
다듬은 글
Michael Berry says the AI trade has become a bubble. He argues that hyperscalers are inflating profits. Micron remains a cyclical, capital-destroying stock, and history suggests another major downturn is coming. But the bulls have a powerful counterargument. Micron just reported revenue growth of 346%, gross margin exceeded 84%, free cash flow increased dramatically, and AI memory is reportedly sold out by 2028 .
Then there is the options market. Volatility is extremely expensive, with over 100%IV in many expiration options and a fairly high IV rating at 91 and a half right now. So, has AI changed Micron's business forever, or is this just another cycle before the next crash? Let's check it out in this edition of Options Math Check.
So I think Micron is, uh , interesting. He is constantly flying. I don't remember the last time we looked at a Micron premarket where it was just flat. It seems to me that there is always a premarket flow in this matter. It closed at 975. Now in the premarket, the shares are trading at 1010. And again , 100%IV until November of this year.
And even then, you still expect 97% across the board over the next year. The first indicator is 80-December 2027. So, the market is telling us that we should expect huge volatility. You have a projected move of 125 points this week. So looking at the implied volatility, I mean it's crazy. And, uh, you're going to have a skew of call options for the foreseeable future until they stop fluctuating sharply and moving up.
But what do you think? Do you think this is the next big $2 trillion tech stock? Do you think this will fade into the background? I mean, I think it's going to line up in that direction, and again , we trade so many things. I didn't delve into their business, specifically what they do. But, I think this is one of those situations where we're just talking about price action trading, and the price is showing that these stocks are just somehow breaking new ground.
I mean, we've seen these movements recently. It was amazing to watch. By the way , I made another call last week about buying shares. Same thing again with SanDisk. I'm trying them again to see what happens. And it's because of the anticipated movements that I feel like I can try these things and maybe make some money from them.
It seems like we're talking about this as much as we were talking about Nvidia a couple of years ago. We don't talk about Nvidia in the same way . It seems we're talking about Micron of all names. I mean, even AMD is moving a lot, but we don't talk about it that much. Micron was the name. And, uh, when you're a name, I think that's what, uh, a lot of people trade and it has the most liquidity.
And as you said, the expected movements just give an idea of the volatility of this name, it's, um, very high. So, yes, I'm starting to think that way. And again, one of the things I like about big vacations is that you get to travel a little bit, see the country, and see some other things that you might not see in your everyday life.
And seeing this data center was like a revelation, man. I'm telling you. I thought, “Wow, I’ve seen the pictures. I know that such exist, but the number of cranes, the type, and just the amount of equipment , it was a lot. And, uh , that speaks to everything we see day in and day out in trading. This explains why these things move the way they do.
Yeah, I think the main thing for Micron is, uh , the sales forecast, I think. Sold out by 2028—that's kind of crazy. And I think that for me is resilience. If it was just hype and nothing behind it, if they didn't have, uh, a business model that could support it, then I think you would see a lot more speculation, you would see a lot more realized volatility.
You would see a lot more of these straight graphs and then collapse. Uh, but I think you...I think it can hold up here. Especially in our time, a trillion dollars is obviously a lot. Uh, yes. So it's interesting, because if you think this is going to be , you know, the next Microsoft or... A Google-like company in terms of market cap, right now you're looking at a price of at least $2,500 unless they do a stock split.
So you still have plenty of room to grow if you think this will be the next big tech stock worthy of Mag 7. But if not, you also have plenty of implied volatility so you can structure new trading ideas and so on. But these are shares worth $1,000. We're like, uh, we're kind of locked into these butterflies and calendar spreads.
This is how we trade it. Unless you want to do something like short-term, uh , credit spreads, but I like butterflies and calendar spreads here. I think they're a great risk reward, especially for medium and small accounts, butterflies, namely, um, because you can get four-day butterflies , seven-day butterflies, 11-day butterflies, which are still pretty cheap because the implied volatility is very high.
And if you get the timing right, they can be a really good, uh, reward relative to risk. And you can use their anticipated movements for you, um, and to your advantage, you know? I mean, normally you wouldn't be able to bet on something moving a hundred- odd dollars where it's moving overnight right now.
And the fact that you can, and who knows, it might even surpass this movement, right? I think it's beneficial to be able to play with these spreads . This is quite difficult to do. And it's not a case where you just do it straight, you don't even sell put options in most of them because it's really quite expensive at times.
So, I think you need to take advantage of these spreads to be able to do that. But, I mean, Micron is now number 11 in the S&P 500. That's not far off. And, um, it's been a very rapid, um, growth here over the last couple of years. If you blinked , you missed it. But, it's already here, and it's not far from possibly getting into the top five .
Yes. This is wild. But, yeah, uh, I have an iron condor here from last time from the profits. This is an iron condor that we wrapped around a butterfly. Hmm. Um, everything works fine here too . But this is just an example of how far you can go. 800 , 1300 are short strikes. And then I went to find a risk 20 points wide.
You can make it 10 points wide. You can do whatever suits your risk tolerance. But, uh, you're going to get a couple hundred dollars even for a wide range of 500 points, which is pretty crazy. It's nice, yes, I know. I mean, we can even hold up to last week's movement, I have to say. I mean, there's a significant significant move down, and we're still outside the expected move.
Yes, you should like it. Yes. But yeah, we'll see how this thing performs this week. Again , about 30 points before the open after closing at 975, bouncing back above 1,000. Uh, and just really quickly look at some of the skew: if you look at the 11- day chart and you go up 200 points out of the money to 800 , and then up to 1,200, uh, you actually see a little bit of a put skew here, or at least right now, which is quite interesting.
I think so. I think it happened late last week. I mean, these stocks were won , you know, like on Friday . And again, it was a different time when, although a lot of them were won, you know, there was Micron, the whole AI trade. I mean, I saw NBIS, BEE, all these stocks were won. But it wasn't as if the market had collapsed.
And I think that's what a lot of people have been calling for. Maybe that's what Berry is calling for, right? This is a drop in these stocks and a bit of a collapse, if you will, in the market. But I just...I...I have n't seen it yet. At least, I haven't seen any concerns about that yet. Of course, it's a crowded marketplace , but when we saw some exits from that crowded marketplace, they went to the Walmart and Costco of the world.
Lilly of the world. We've seen some bullish sentiment in healthcare recently. So I think that's a good sign. Until we see a crash when these names are sold. Yes. Of course. Yes. We ...We'll see when the market opens here, but I think it's going to be butterflies up or down here. Uh, I have this Iron Condor, so I'll just keep using it .
There is still $400 of external value that could disappear. So it helps me , if I hold this iron condor and throw like a butterfly inside this short strike, it will protect a lot of that upside risk. The same goes for downsizing if you... I would like to play both sides, but I think that's what I would do, given that I have an existing position.
I like neutral positions here, at any of these expiration dates, simply because you have 100%IV, you can do literally anything you want. Yes, and in addition to the iron condor you mentioned, as I said, I put the call butterfly back in. I did this a few times when the name came up. This time it went a little further, but I called the butterfly at 1100, uh, 1200, 1300.
If I win this week with the iron condor, I 'll be happy, man. I am delighted. Yes, take this. As it should be . And yes, even in this 4-day cycle, you can still see 1100, 1200, 1300 trading at how much? 800 bucks for 100 points wide. Madness. Yes, this is...madness. Um, but yes, it's a math test. Looking at Micron.
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