저자: 미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 연초 대비 43% 하락하고 52주 저점 근처에 있어 매수 기회라는 주장. 분기 매출 82.8억달러(전년비 46% 성장)로 컨센서스를 상회했으나 다음 분기 가이던스 81억달러는 하회, 성장률 둔화 전망. 암(ARM) 인수 무산 위약금 13억달러로 영업이익 감소, 현금 약 200억달러 이상과 150억달러 자사주 매입 확대로 재무 탄탄. 기술적으로 4주간 표시해 둔 지지 구간 진입, 장기적으로 저점 매수 관점 제시하나 변동성이 커 올인·레버리지는 비추천.
다듬은 글
nvidia stock is down over 43 year-to-date that's on the heels of announcing earnings after the bell we're seeing the stock just a couple of dollars off of its 52-week low is now the time to step in and buy nvidia because certainly when we look at this from a technical perspective as well it's pulling into a zone that we've had marked out here on the channel quite frankly four weeks and the million or in this case over 400 billion dollar question is do you step in here and buy nvidia as it continues to head lower we'll talk about that and more on today's show what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there time to talk about nvidia last of the mega cap companies that were just reported their earnings we talked about how they had 8.28 billion dollars worth of revenue that was just absolutely fantastic 46 percent year-over-year revenue growth that beat expectations by about 190 million dollars but if you've learned anything about this earnings season it's not about this quarter it's about the upcoming quarters and that's where nvidia is coming up a little bit light revenue expected in the upcoming quarter to be about 8.1 billion dollars consensus was closer to 8.44 billion i'll show you that on a year-over-year growth rate here so the most recent quarter we grew kind of like 43-44 the upcoming quarter we expected to slip down to about 29 growth and in fact if they come underneath that 8.44 billion dollars on that revenue side they'll actually come underneath that revenue growth target q3 was also expected to be a relatively strong quarter 26 growth that obviously comes under question but what we've noticed here with nvidia is really into the foreseeable future analysts have kind of like a google-like revenue growth on this company at that kind of mid-teens growth i was just looking at google yesterday analysts are expecting mid-teens growth and that's where nvidia is headed certainly their multiple has come in big time over nvidia you got a price to earnings closer to 30 it was closer to 60 at one time certainly when you're growing your revenues in this 40 50 60 range like nvidia was it certainly earned that multiple but as wall street started to digest that the revenue growth is just going to continue to slow down over nvidia we've just seen the stock continue to pull back so it begs the question is now the time to buy well when it came to those earnings we are a little concerned about the upcoming quarter my guess is they'll come slightly over their estimates of that 8.1 billion dollars but boy they'd have to beat it by quite a bit to come up to where consensus was closer to about 8.4 or 8.5 billion dollars on that revenue side now in terms of the product mix this is what a lot of people have been looking at there's been a lot of discussion about nvidia's gaming mix which again is listed as gaming here on their quarterly revenue trends but anybody that's familiar with their products understands that some of these or a large portion of these gaming gpus actually go to crypto mining so as we've seen the pullback in crypto it obviously could put some pressure on that segment of the business but we are not seeing that yet still strong quarter not year over year quarter over quarter growth still very strong over 200 million dollars added there but year over year just absolutely phenomenal growth there same thing with the data center accelerating actually a little faster on that revenue growth quarter over quarter and then year over year just amazing growth in fact it overtook gaming as the number one revenue generator over at the company and that should just make you smile as an nvidia investor and take a look at this professional visualization there's a lot of software tools while quarter over quarter we didn't see a lot of growth there still year over year you're seeing fantastic growth there it proves that nvidia can continue to introduce new product lines like this data center and eventually it kind of overtakes and becomes a gigantic piece or in the case of data center the most important pieces of their revenue now some interesting things from a financial perspective when we look over at nvidia gross margins in the most recent quarter ticking up to 65.5 last quarter they were basically there another 0.1 added to those gross margins a year ago though they were at 64.1 so we've really expanded those margins the operating expenses did balloon a little bit but i'll show you where that came from in the most recent quarter you went from 1.6 all the way up to 3.5 in fact that's over 1.5 billion growth just quarter over quarter but again i'm gonna show you where that came from and why this is not necessarily as bad as it seems because when you come down here to operating income despite the strong year-over-year revenue growth which we talked about came in at 46 and the expansion of margins year over year look at what happened to operating income it actually went down it went down from 1.9 down to 1.8 a quarter ago you're sitting at 2.9 so everything gets shredded after that including net income your earnings per share basically gets shredded but i'm going to come over here i'm going to show you what happened to their operating expenses we have that 8.2 billion dollars worth of revenue we have 5.4 billion dollars worth of gross profit again strong margins in fact they increased year over year but take a look at this acquisition termination cost this is the arm deal gone bad they had to pay a 1.3 billion dollar termination deal that obliterated their cost structure so your ballooned to 3.5 billion but factor in over 1.3 billion of that is an acquisition termination cost when we get over to cash flows we'll see how that company did without that cost factored in obviously when you're here on these financial statements you can add this back in as well because quite frankly that termination cost was due to regulation and government overreach in my opinion instead of something that was business related when it came to nvidia so income from operations i tell you what went from 1.9 to 1.8 you give them a credit for another 1.3 this was a very very strong quarter now move down to the balance sheet and it gets even stronger for nvidia over here over 25 billion dollars worth of cash even factoring in the fact that they had to pay a 1.3 billion dollar termination fee they do have some long-term debt it's basically the same as it was a year ago they did announce in the press release that they are extending the company's buy-back to a total of 15 billion through december 2023 and then when we walk down here to cash flows i'll show you that they did do some accelerating buying in the most recent quarter as well in terms of buying back the company's shares now we come down to cash flows 1.6 billion on that net income you get to add back in that acquisition termination cost but when you walk all the way down here to net cash provided by operating activities it's still down because it looks like nvidia had some prepaid expenses or some other assets down here at 1.2 billion dollars that impacted cash flows as well we're getting into kind of the minutiae of the accounting but this still looks really strong the things i think i would pay attention to over at nvidia is the fact that they still have very very strong gross margins in fact they're accelerating and then when you minus out the acquisition cost well they're keeping their cost in line r d went from 1.1 up to 1.6 and selling general administrative basically was flat from a rounding perspective you love to see that as a company and you love to see it as a shareholder now from a financing perspective take a look at the buyback in the most recent quarter 1.9 billion dollars now look it didn't really do a whole lot to help the shares but it is their 1.9 billion dollars they've got another i think about 15 billion on that one thing i discussed on my twitter account today was i didn't think that nvidia's cash pile which at the time was sitting at 21 billion now when we come to their earnings and look at their balance sheet it's closer to 20 billion but they've got another 5.4 billion in receivables they have a fair amount of inventory as well total current assets at 29 billion with over 20 billion of that being cash i don't know if that is really priced into the stock the fact that this company cleared up a ton of cash to make this acquisition and then all of a sudden it doesn't go through well obviously the buyback of 15 billion dollars through the end of next year certainly will be a use of a large portion of this cash but theoretically nvidia probably could do some other things with that cash as well now moving over to this from a tactical perspective it's not doing anything that we didn't think it was going to okay the stock has been in a very well defined downtrend for quite some time now it has not broken out of this downtrend in fact it looks like it wants to continue to head lower we've talked about here a number of time on our friday fang stock recap show where we include nvidia in that recap look we've had marked out for months here from about 115 up to about where the stock is right now at about 160 dollars per share this is the area that we liked nvidia from a market cap perspective over 400 billion we talked about it from a price to earnings price to sales price to cash flow when we talk about this balance sheet and how fantastic this is and now we've got an accelerated buyback as well or at least the extension of that buyback and it looks like the cash on hand to execute upon it there's a lot of things to like about nvidia longer term i think this area down here is an excellent place to acquire shares of nvidia i wouldn't go all in i wouldn't do this on margin i wouldn't unload all of the extra cash that i have into a stock like this it's an extraordinarily volatile stock with rather routine like 40 50 60 drawdowns just like we've seen over the last couple of months with nvidia so you have to understand that getting into this stock but with a balance sheet like this with performance like this with gross margins like this with financials and secular trail wins behind a company like this you want to buy these companies when they have these major pullbacks any time nvidia has had a major pullback it's been a major buying opportunity i would categorize this as a very major pullback into an area of demand into an area where it starts to make sense from an evaluation perspective i personally will be adding to the stock over the weeks and months ahead hopefully you all enjoyed today's video let me know down in the comments what you feel about this one have a wonderful rest of your day and good luck with your investments
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