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팔란티어 1분기 실적은 매출 4억4600만 달러(전년비 약 31% 성장)로 컨센서스를 소폭 상회했으나, 2분기 가이던스(약 4억7000만 달러)가 컨센서스(약 4억8300만 달러)를 밑돌아 주가가 급락. 시총은 약 150억 달러 수준으로 줄었지만 매출 대비 밸류에이션(약 5배 미래매출)은 여전히 높다고 평가. 매출총이익률이 높고 영업손실은 개선 중이나, 주식기반보상(1억4900만 달러)이 커 현금흐름은 악화. 기술적으로 주요 지지선 붕괴 상태이므로 지금은 매수 비추천, 시총 80~90억 달러 수준까지 떨어져야 고려 가능하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
pound tier stock is down 20 after recording earnings this morning and the stock year-to-date is down about 60. has anyone checked on tom nash and kathy wood this morning i hope they're doing okay time to talk about palantir technologies ticker symbol pltr the company who just reported their q1 numbers we'll take a look at the revenues the profits the all-important q2 outlook as well i think that's what's having this stock go lower we'll come over here and look at these numbers the revenues the way palantir is controlling this cost all important stock based compensation in the quarter as well if you've been following our channel and our analysis on palantir we've long criticized them about the stock based compensation expense we'll see if that's gotten any better in the most recent quarter then we'll come over and look at this from a technical perspective obviously when your stock is down 60 year-to-date and down another 20 today while the technical chart is going to look like an absolute complete disaster and that is basically what we have over at palantir now right now at the current time i have the market cap over at palantir south of about 15 billion dollars that includes today's drop as well obviously those things get shaken out in the coming days and months ahead we'll keep that in mind because we when we've looked at this company in the past it's been a 30 billion 40 50 billion dollar company and it made absolutely no sense but now that we're at a 15 billion dollar company with 446 million dollars worth of revenue and a 30 growth rate in the quarter have i turned from bearish to bullish i think certainly your clue that palantir might be a buy is when tom nash and kathy wood go bearish and i go bullish that's probably a clear sign that this stock should be in your portfolio we'll see if that day is today now revenues came in like i talked about in the most recent quarter at 446 million dollars that was about 31 year-over-year growth they did beat expectations on that revenue side by about 2.5 million dollars now i don't think that is what's sending this stock lower what is sending this stock lower is exactly what sent amazon and a lot of other stocks that we've looked at certainly netflix as well facebook there's been a lot of stocks that just have been absolutely decimated and it's the outlook as we look into q2 q3 even maybe q4 of this year companies are just pulling back their revenue expectations and palantir is no different they say that the q2 is going to come in at 470 million dollars versus consensus estimates at 483 million dollars oh that's really bad we come over here to the consensus revenue estimates over at palantir we see the most recent quarter analysts were expecting 443 the company came in about 3 million over that at 446.
that was strong performance i don't think that's what the stock is reacting on it's this upcoming quarter where we're expecting 483 on the low end of analysts and only we've only got four to six analysts covering this company it's not a lot and on the low end they were expecting 478 million dollars worth of revenue so the fact that palantir is coming in even lower than that at 470 million that is an incredibly bearish sign not only for palantir but i think more importantly the entire united states and maybe quite frankly the global economy as we head into q2 q3 we're starting to actually see the actual tangible evidence of inflation of people tightening their belts in the case of palantir certainly governments as well with all the government contracts they have we're seeing a tightening there now if we look past that because there are certainly going to be investors that say hey inflational go away the cycle will resume and companies like palantir will be back to normal if we assume maybe 2023 maybe 2024 we're seeing revenue estimates kind of in that seven to eight mil 800 million range that would put this company kind of right in that like three billion dollar mark in terms of sales and i talked about how we've got a 15 billion dollar market cap on palantir at the current time we're still trading at about five time future sales on this one okay if everything goes right if we grow kind of mid 20s maybe even as high as 30 percent for the next eight quarters well that would still put us at about five to six times sales on volunteers market cap right now well right now apple trades at about six time sales and that's the trailing 12 month sales not the future sales that are projected over at apple this company is still is still richly valued that's another reason why you continue to see this stock slide now some other reasons why investors are fleeing the stock is yes you have strong revenue goes at 4 46 last year you're at 340.
that's really really strong revenue growth the number one reason why we continue to look at this company is they have these incredible gross margins probably some of the best you'll see here on the channel and wall street for that matter just 94 million dollars worth of cost on this 446 million dollars worth of revenue so you take 446 you minus off 94 you're left with about 352 million dollars worth of gross profit last year you were just at 267 so you grew that by about 90 million dollars year over year that's absolutely fantastic a lot of this revenue growth flows all the way down to gross profit that is the bull case argument for palantir now it kind of falls apart after that because they spent plenty on sales and marketing and went from 136 million up to 160.
research and development actually went down 98 to 88 and general administrative also went down so i do like that they're controlling their cost a little bit they had to drive up the sales and marketing to drive these sales but they did a nice job research development i'm not too worried if that goes up or down because it's really investing in the future but i like how general administrative basically went flat it'll be interesting to see if that's what we can expect for upcoming quarters with palantir where this g a cost line starts to flatten out we've got total operating expenses went from 381 up to just 391.
so it's really going to show an improvement on the operating side when your costs only go up by about 10 million and your gross profits went up by about 90 because you take this 351 we minus off 391 and we get to a loss from operations right at that 40 million dollar range last year we actually lost about 114 million so it's improved considerably over the last year i tell you what these financials are starting to look a little bit better over at palantir it's not that i'm going to go and even take a flyer on this company because when the broader markets are just selling off and pulling back i mean volunteers not the only stock going down there's a ton of names that i would like to buy pallentier would not necessarily be at the top of that list but these financials are starting to turn around and i tell you what the longer this stock stays beaten down there are some things to like here now fine and i'm talking in the sense that we have a 15 billion valuation if you bought this at a 30 million valuation a 40 or 50 or a 60 billion dollar valuation you're never going to see that type of valuation on this company maybe in your lifetime so you grossly overpaid for the company but in the context of a 15 billion company that's gonna grow kind of in that mid twenties maybe even as high as 30 heading into the upcoming quarters and years ahead well all of a sudden it makes a little more sense not as much sense as some of these mega caps that have dropped but we'll get to that here more in a second now terms of our balance sheet over at palantir things look pretty good got about the same amount of cash got about the same amount of liabilities it's basically a sideways quarter from the balance sheet perspective over at volunteer nothing new there from that perspective now from a cash flow perspective we pull down a net loss of a hundred and one million dollars this company must recognize a ton of stuff after operations so we have our income for operations we talked about how that was 40 million dollars last year we lost 114 million dollars we have some other income or an expense it looks like they lost a bunch of money on something because they lost about 60 million dollars in the most recent quarter on some other income and they had to recognize that here last year was just 5 million so that's going to balloon your net loss to 101 million so despite the improvement on operations there was kind of a one-time charge here or an outside liar charge that will impact our net income chances are we get to add that back in on cash flows i tell you what though with palantir i i wouldn't say i would ignore this this sucks but the operating income is starting to trend in the right direction if they put together two or three more quarters of that that certainly will be increasable to investors now in terms of our cash flows we have this 101 we do see this unrealized gain or in this case a loss from marketable securities so they lost a ton of money there 62 million they get to add that back in the all-important stock-based compensation came in at 149 million dollars in the quarter so the company lost 101 million dollars on net income while they rewarded executives with a 149 million dollars worth of stock based compensation i'll remind you this company has 446 million dollars worth of revenue and in the quarter they paid themselves 149 million dollars worth of stock-based compensation i know a lot of you guys are going to get in the comments and maybe you've been trained by kathy wood or tom nash or any of these people that have been mega bullish this stock forever when this thing was 30 40 50 per share people were pumping this down your throat saying this was the next amazon and tesla combined they simply and conveniently ignored the fact that a lot of these expenses are going to stock-based compensation and some of you saying when accurately saying well that's not cash well guys if i didn't eat the last three pizzas at a pint of ice cream over the last week i'd probably be 10 pounds lighter but unfortunately i can't take that stuff out of my stomach and we have to compensate these employees and i tell you what when your stock is down 60 percent guess what pallentier is going to have to compensate employees with cold hard cash because these shares are absolutely worthless and they're heading that way we get to add back things like the stock based compensation a complete whiff on these marketable securities at the tune of 63 million but we see that our net cash provided by operating activities it still wasn't enough to give us an improvement year over year so i think the guidance the q2 guidance coming in a little light over at palantir that is scaring investors away the other thing is this cash flow it went from 116 down to 35 so despite our operating income gains our cash flows is actually painting a worse story that is not good it's also a sign the fact that this stock-based compensation yes it's going to start to normalize a little bit it starts to go down but you can't retain your best employees if your stock continues to go down like pal and tier stock they're simply not going to want it they're going to want cash compensation or they're going to go work somewhere else where the stock chart doesn't look like that now everything else from the cash flow perspective looks about what you'd expect cash has left this company to the tune of about 34 million dollars in the most recent quarter they still have plenty of cash sitting here on the balance sheet they can survive these types of losses but investors are clearly getting impatient with the stock when you come over here and look at this stock chart it is in just a downward channel and more specifically i'll zoom into the price action just over the last couple of weeks or so and we see we had some area of support down here believe it or not about nine dollars per share even more specifically there was probably a range the stock was trying to hold kind of that nine to ten dollar range there's probably some etfs and some other investment funds out there that have a rule that look they can't even invest in stocks that go below 10.
me personally i have a rule there as well it used to be five dollars but now with inflation and time passing i really don't even look at stocks less than i would say even twenty twenty five dollars per share it's clearly a sign something as wrong and certainly with palantir's case gapping down below that eight to nine dollar range down here at seven there's really not a lot to talk about here from a technical perspective you've broken through kind of the key ipo price you're in no man's land territory on the way up some of you will say well oh man this is a great opportunity well okay on the way up you're gonna have resistance kind of in that eight to nine to ten dollar range on a really really bull run i mean this would be fantastic but then all the way back up through kind of the 10 to 12 to 15 range you should have sellers step in a lot of these as retail buyers that stepped in and bought with kathy wood bought on the influencer hype of this stock and will look to cash out if and when they can break even on their shares right now i would not buy this company let it keep falling like a japanese steak knife at some point the valuation starts to make a little bit more sense i think if you want to look at future earnings and look because they brought in their guidance in the most recent quarter we probably have to bring in a lot of these numbers heading into 2023 and 2024 a lot of uncertainty looking forward but if we assume that maybe in two or three years this company will be doing about three billion dollars worth of revenue i wouldn't want to pay more than maybe two or three times future earnings on this one that means this would have to fall south of about a ten to nine billion dollar valuation before i even considered it and i think if palantir falls to like an eight or nine billion dollar valuation there's gonna be a ton of other stocks that have far more cash flows maybe doing buybacks and paying a dividend that i'd rather invest in than a loser like palantir well kathy wood and tom nash finally admit that this is one of the biggest turds in the stock market in the coming days ahead or will they double down that'll be interesting to see hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video good luck with your investments
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